网内外业务齐拓展，持续推进 SST 布局 四方股份(601126) | [姓名table_Authors] | 电话 | 邮箱 | 登记编号 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 徐强(分析师) | 010-83939805 | xuqiang@gtht.com | S0880517040002 | 本报告导读： 公司是国内极少数能够提供数据中心交直流配电系统一二次关键设备及全套解决方 案的企业。针对 AIDC 特殊需求，公司加紧与客户建立深度合作关系。 投资要点： [Table_Summary] 盈利预测与投资评级。预计 2025-2027 年，公司归母净利润 8.43 亿 元、9.94 亿元、11.72 亿元，增速为 17.8%、17.9%、17.9%。对应 EPS 1.01 元、1.19 元、1.41 元。结合公司市场地位，以及同业估值，给 予公司 2026 年 40 倍 PE，目标价 47.6 元，维持"增持"评级。 网内、网外业务齐拓展： （1）主网业务：受益于二次设备招标规模的带动，公司中标规模明 显高于预期。 （2）配网业务：公司积极推进一二次融合、综合能源管理等技术和 产 ...

Group 1: AIDC and Power Supply Innovations - The global AIDC demand is experiencing significant growth, with major cloud companies increasing their capital expenditures. In FY2025, the top three global cloud providers are expected to collectively spend nearly $300 billion [3][19] - High Voltage Direct Current (HVDC) is becoming the preferred solution for next-generation data center power supply, as it enhances power efficiency and reduces material usage. The global HVDC market is projected to reach approximately $30 billion by 2027 [4][59] - Key recommendations for HVDC and Storage Solutions include companies like Zhongheng Electric and Siyuan Electric, with additional attention on Keda Data, Kstar, and others [10][65] Group 2: Photovoltaic Industry Trends - The photovoltaic industry is transitioning towards high-quality development, with supply-demand dynamics expected to gradually improve. In 2025, domestic photovoltaic installations are projected to reach a record high, although global installation growth is anticipated to slow down post-2026 [5][6] - The industry is actively reducing operating rates to improve supply-demand structures, with significant declines in operating rates for polysilicon and other segments noted [6][7] - Key recommendations in the photovoltaic sector focus on supply-side improvements and new technologies, with companies like Flat Glass and Quartz Holdings highlighted for their potential [11][10]

网内外业务齐拓展，持续推进 SST 布局 四方股份(601126) | [姓名table_Authors] | 电话 | 邮箱 | 登记编号 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 徐强(分析师) | 010-83939805 | xuqiang@gtht.com | S0880517040002 | 本报告导读： 公司是国内极少数能够提供数据中心交直流配电系统一二次关键设备及全套解决方 案的企业。针对 AIDC 特殊需求，公司加紧与客户建立深度合作关系。 投资要点： [Table_Summary] 盈利预测与投资评级。预计 2025-2027 年，公司归母净利润 8.43 亿 元、9.94 亿元、11.72 亿元，增速为 17.8%、17.9%、17.9%。对应 EPS 1.01 元、1.19 元、1.41 元。结合公司市场地位，以及同业估值，给 予公司 2026 年 40 倍 PE，目标价 47.6 元，维持"增持"评级。 网内、网外业务齐拓展： （1）主网业务：受益于二次设备招标规模的带动，公司中标规模明 显高于预期。 （2）配网业务：公司积极推进一二次融合、综合能源管理等技术和 产 ...

Group 1 - The A-share market showed mixed results on February 10, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.13%, the Shenzhen Component Index increasing by 0.02%, while the ChiNext Index fell by 0.37% [1] - The electric grid equipment sector performed strongly, with the electric grid equipment ETF (159326) closing up by 0.95% and a total trading volume of 884 million yuan [1] - Key stocks in the sector included Hengtong Optic-Electric, which rose by 7.29%, and Sifang Co., which increased by 5.37% [1] Group 2 - The demand for electricity in data centers has surged due to the explosion of AI computing power, leading to a critical shortage of high-performance transformers [1] - According to Guojin Securities, transformer exports have remained high, with power transformer exports reaching 5.5 billion USD from January to November 2025, a year-on-year increase of 49%, while distribution transformer exports were 2.5 billion USD, up by 13% [1] - The higher growth rate of power transformers is attributed to their greater technical difficulty and longer production expansion cycles [1] Group 3 - The electric grid equipment ETF (159326) is the only ETF tracking the China Securities Electric Grid Equipment Theme Index, with a strong representation in sectors such as transmission and transformation equipment, grid automation equipment, and distribution equipment [2] - The smart grid sector has a weight of 90%, and the ultra-high voltage sector has a weight of 67%, both being the highest in the market [2] - Leading companies in the sector include Tebian Electric Apparatus, China XD Electric, and others, which are significant players in the export market [2]

Group 1 - The A-share market showed mixed performance on February 10, with the ChiNext index experiencing a slight pullback while the power grid equipment sector performed strongly [1] - The only power grid equipment ETF (159326) rose by 1.06%, with a trading volume of 837 million yuan, and leading stocks included Hengtong Optic-Electric, Sifang Co., Zhongtian Technology, and others [1] - Domestic investment in power grids is increasing, with the State Grid's "14th Five-Year" fixed asset investment plan reaching 4 trillion yuan, a 40% increase from the previous plan, coinciding with a global surge in AI computing power and data center electricity demand [1] Group 2 - The power grid equipment ETF (159326) has become a core tool for investing in the sector, with its latest scale exceeding 17.5 billion yuan, having tripled this year and attracting over 12.4 billion yuan in capital [2] - The ETF's constituent stocks cover key areas such as transmission and transformation equipment and grid automation, with the highest weightings in smart grids and ultra-high voltage [2] - This ETF allows investors to effectively manage individual stock volatility risks while capturing the high prosperity dividends of the sector [2]

格隆汇2月10日丨思源电气(002028.SZ)涨1.23%，报204.490元，股价创历史新高，总市值1597.24亿元。 ...

Group 1 - The rapid development of AI has led to a surge in electricity demand, resulting in a strong performance in the power grid equipment sector since the beginning of 2026, with a cumulative increase of nearly 21% [1] - The power equipment theme index rose nearly 3% on February 9, 2026, with significant gains in electrical equipment, thermal power, and wind power indices [1] - The surge is attributed to a combination of the State Grid's 4 trillion yuan fixed asset investment plan during the 14th Five-Year Plan, global "electricity anxiety" driven by AI computing power, and urgent needs for grid upgrades in Europe and the US [1][2] Group 2 - In the AI investment chain, electricity is identified as the highest certainty factor, with constraints on funding and energy being critical issues [2] - The International Energy Agency (IEA) projects that global data center electricity consumption will double to 945 terawatt-hours by 2030, driven by data center expansion and AI technology development [2] - The State Grid's announcement of a 4 trillion yuan investment plan for the 14th Five-Year Plan, a 40% increase from the previous plan, has directly stimulated the power equipment sector [2] Group 3 - Domestic gas turbine technology has made significant breakthroughs and is beginning to export to markets like the Middle East, positioning China's capacity as a potential supplement to the US's electricity shortfall [3] - China holds a dominant position in the global power equipment sector, making power equipment and technology a highly certain investment direction amid the AI wave [3] Group 4 - Despite electricity becoming a new hard constraint, the long-cycle trend of the AI computing power industry chain is expected to continue [4] - The investment logic is shifting as the industry evolves, with a strong capital expenditure forecast for AI-related sectors from 2026 to 2030, particularly in areas facing capacity constraints [4] - Concerns about an "AI bubble" are considered premature, as the technology continues to advance and leading global tech companies remain at reasonable valuation levels [4] Group 5 - The long-term value of the computing power sector is viewed positively, as the AI industry transitions from technological penetration to large-scale performance realization [5] - The rapid iteration of industry chain technology and the narrowing supply chain mean that only a limited number of companies can enter the global core customer system, enhancing the competitive advantage of leading firms [5]

Core Viewpoint - The rapid development of AI has led to a surge in electricity demand, driving a strong performance in the power grid equipment sector, with the sector index rising nearly 21% since the beginning of 2026 [3][4]. Group 1: Electricity as a New Constraint - Electricity is becoming a critical constraint in the AI investment chain, with power supply limitations posing a significant challenge to AI expansion [5][6]. - The U.S. AI electricity consumption is projected to increase from 200 terawatt-hours (TWh) in 2025 to 400 TWh by 2030, equivalent to the output of two Three Gorges Dam projects, highlighting the urgency of addressing power supply shortages [6]. - The National Grid of China plans to invest 4 trillion yuan in fixed assets during the 14th Five-Year Plan, a 40% increase from the previous plan, which has sparked interest in the power grid equipment sector [6]. Group 2: Long-term Outlook for AI Computing Power - Despite electricity becoming a new hard constraint, the long-term bullish outlook for the AI computing power industry chain remains intact [8]. - The investment logic is shifting as the AI wave continues, with hardware investment cycles extending significantly compared to previous tech cycles [8]. - Key sectors such as storage, optical modules, and global semiconductor equipment are expected to show structural supply-demand tightness, enhancing their investment value [8][9]. Group 3: Market Sentiment and Future Prospects - Concerns about an "AI bubble" are considered premature, as the technology continues to advance and leading tech companies' valuations remain reasonable [9]. - The AI industry is transitioning from technological penetration to large-scale performance realization, with significant growth potential still ahead [9][10]. - The rapid iteration of industry technology and the narrowing of supply chains are deepening the competitive advantages of leading firms, allowing them to benefit from ongoing industry prosperity [10].

受益AI快速发展带来的电力需求暴增，2026年开年以来电网设备板块持续强势行情。2月9日，电网设 备主题指数收涨近3%，2026年以来累计上涨近21%。 板块方面，电气设备、火电、风电指数均大面积收涨。个股方面，东方电气（600875.SH）收盘涨停、 思源电气（002028.SZ）川润股份（002272.SZ）等多股涨停。 尽管电力成为新的硬约束，机构普遍认为AI算力产业链的长周期行情并未结束。 "进入2026年，产业虽未止步，但投资逻辑正在发生转变。"嘉实全球产业升级基金经理陈俊杰此前在嘉 实基金2026年度投资策略峰会上表示，自2023年ChatGPT引爆全球AI浪潮以来，算力产业链经历了长达 三年的高景气周期。目前估值全面扩张的行情告一段落，结构性机会凸显。 "以100太瓦时约等于三峡水电站年发电量为参照，美国AI用电量预计从2025年的200太瓦时增至2030年 的400太瓦时，缺口相当于两座三峡电站的电力。考虑到三峡工程历时20年建成，美国要在四五年内补 足同等规模电力供给几乎不可能，美国进入缺电阶段只是时间问题。"陆文杰举例称。 国际能源署（IEA）最新报告显示，2030年全球数据中心用电量将增 ...

Core Insights - The rapid development of AI has led to a surge in electricity demand, resulting in a strong performance in the power grid equipment sector since the beginning of 2026, with a cumulative increase of nearly 21% [1] - The current market rally is driven by a combination of a 4 trillion yuan fixed asset investment plan by the State Grid during the 14th Five-Year Plan, global "electricity anxiety" due to AI computing power explosion, and urgent upgrade needs in European and American power grids [1][2] - Electricity is becoming a new constraint in the AI investment chain, with power supply limitations posing a significant challenge to the expansion of AI technologies [2] Investment Trends - The domestic market is witnessing a significant increase in fixed asset investments by the State Grid, which is expected to reach 4 trillion yuan during the 14th Five-Year Plan, marking a 40% increase from the previous plan [2] - The International Energy Agency (IEA) projects that global data center electricity consumption will double by 2030, driven by the expansion of data centers and AI technology [2] - Domestic gas turbine technology is advancing and beginning to export to markets like the Middle East, positioning China's manufacturing as a potential solution to the electricity shortage in the U.S. [3] Long-term Outlook - Despite electricity becoming a hard constraint, the long-term bullish trend in the AI computing power industry chain is expected to continue [4] - The investment logic is shifting, with structural opportunities becoming more prominent as the AI wave progresses [4] - The current AI wave is compared to the internet boom of the early 1990s, with the industry still in the early stages of an upward cycle [4] Market Dynamics - The demand for computing power in the AI industry is anticipated to grow significantly, with no ceiling in sight for this demand [5] - The rapid technological iteration within the industry and the narrowing supply chain are creating a limited number of companies that can enter the global core customer system, enhancing the competitive advantage of leading firms [6]