当前时点如何看消费顺周期？20260129 摘要 房地产市场：预计 2027 年接近底部，短期一线城市二手房成交量回升， 价格跌幅收窄，政策稳定预期，显示边际向好信号。关注未来超常规政 策如房贷结构性工具、公积金降息及城市更新货币化安置。 货币政策与流动性：央行维持低利率，定期存款到期或转向理财及权益 市场，活期存款增加，资金更易流入资本市场。地产板块持仓比例仅 0.4%，刷新历史新低，估值修复迅速。 财政政策与消费：财政支出倾斜社保民生等领域，多地发放消费券支撑 春节消费，1 月政府债同比多增，表明财政前置发力。2026 年一季度经 济量价预计整体提升。 通胀预期：春节临近及季节性因素致蔬菜、水果、白酒价格上涨，国际 金属价格上行推动 PPI 向 CPI 传导，预计 2026 年 CPI 中枢高于去年。 白酒板块持仓降至新低，有望迎来反弹。 消费品市场：大众品复苏节奏超前于白酒，连锁业态维持高景气，规模 效应提升利润率。调味品板块库存消化完毕，进入发货周期，餐饮供应 链复苏，经销商备货积极。 Q&A 当前如何看待消费顺周期的表现？ 当前消费顺周期的表现主要受到几个因素的影响。首先，从地产层面来看，我 们总结 ...

Group 1 - The travel trend during the Spring Festival is significantly increasing, with hotel bookings during the holiday period rising by 71% year-on-year [1] - Major hotel groups have shown robust pre-sale data for the Spring Festival, with average daily room rates (ADR) for Atour and Huazhu increasing by 46% and 32% respectively on a week-on-week basis [1] - The longer holiday period this year (9 days compared to 8 days last year) is expected to drive higher hotel demand, with anticipated government support measures for the industry [1] Group 2 - The hotel sector is currently at a historical cycle bottom, with leading companies shifting their strategy from prioritizing occupancy rates (OCC) to optimizing revenue per available room (RevPAR) [1] - Huazhu has already seen a positive turn in ADR in Q3, indicating a strengthening of pricing power among leading hotel chains [1] - Jin Jiang Hotels is identified as the largest hotel chain in China, while ShouLai Hotels is focusing on the development of standard management and mid-to-high-end hotels, with the proportion of mid-to-high-end hotel rooms increasing to 42.5% by Q3 2025 [1]

Investment Rating - The report rates the real estate sector as "Overweight" [4] Core Insights - The industry is expected to stabilize as supply decreases and quality improves, with new and old drivers working together to push the market towards a bottoming out [2] - Key cities are anticipated to find a balance in sales by 2026, although long-tail cities will continue to drag down overall performance, albeit at a reduced rate [2] Summary by Sections 2025 Industry Review - The industry faced a significant downturn in sales and investment, with actual sales area data falling below previous lower predictions due to overly optimistic expectations for third and fourth-tier cities [8] - The decline in new construction and investment was more pronounced than expected, with new construction area growth at -20.4% and completion area growth at -18.1% [10][24] 2026 Industry Outlook - The focus will be on high-quality development, with key cities expected to stabilize sales. The central economic work conference emphasized stabilizing the real estate market and encouraging the acquisition of existing properties for affordable housing [7][9] - Investment growth is projected to be slow, with construction area growth expected between -5.8% and -10.2%, and corresponding investment growth between -4.0% and -12.5% [10][11] - The report predicts that the sales amount for 2026 could vary under optimistic, neutral, and pessimistic scenarios, with forecasts of 2.6%, -4.9%, and -11.4% respectively [10] Policy Focus - The main pressures on the industry will stem from investment growth challenges, with expectations for interest rate cuts and asset recovery policies to support the sector [10][11] - The report highlights the importance of monitoring the implementation of policies related to interest rate reductions, asset recovery, and urban renewal [10][11] Sales and Investment Predictions - The report provides a detailed forecast for 2026, indicating that the total sales area is expected to stabilize between 7-8 billion square meters, driven by improving demand and urban renewal initiatives [44][50] - The sales amount and land acquisition trends are expected to reflect a continued focus on quality and strategic development in key urban areas [50][55]

Group 1 - The hotel and catering sector increased by 0.96% compared to the previous trading day, with Quan Jud leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4157.98, up 0.16%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 14300.08, down 0.3% [1] - Key stocks in the hotel and catering sector showed varied performance, with Quan Jud closing at 12.28, up 3.37%, and ST Yunwang closing at 2.11, down 2.31% [1] Group 2 - The net inflow of main funds in the hotel and catering sector was 17.95 million yuan, while retail investors saw a net outflow of 17.99 million yuan [1] - Major stocks like Jin Jiang Hotel and Huatian Hotel experienced significant net inflows from main funds, with Jin Jiang Hotel seeing 14.91 million yuan [2] - ST Yunwang had the highest net outflow from main funds at 9.84 million yuan, indicating a negative sentiment towards this stock [2]

莫敏俭指出，产品与服务的标准化是连锁酒店品牌的生命线，但庞大体系内常面临信息分散、上下贯通 效率低、标准一致性维护难等诸多挑战。作为国内头部酒店管理企业，锦江酒店（中国区）一直是数字 化转型的先行探索者和实践者。 他表示，在与飞书接触并规划共建"锦鲲"平台的过程中，企业进一步认识到，AI不仅是技术工具，更是 驱动行业演进的关键力量。"AI发展日新月异，它为我们提供了一个'超级工具'，这将深刻重塑业务流 程，甚至转变员工角色。"莫敏俭表示，企业积极拥抱技术浪潮，其根本目的并非取代人力，而是通过 AI这一"超级工具"重塑流程、赋能员工，最终让服务更精准地回归人的需求与温度。 新华财经北京1月28日电（记者丁雅雯）锦江酒店（中国区）副总裁莫敏俭日前在接受新华财经专访时 表示，企业将把握AI技术浪潮，加速推进数字化转型，核心目标是系统性重塑业务流程与组织效能， 以支撑超万店规模的高质量发展。 锦江酒店（中国区）联合飞书打造的AI协同办公平台"锦鲲"近日正式发布，标志着其在数字化转型道路 上迈出关键一步。 数据显示，截至2025年6月30日，锦江酒店（中国区）签约酒店已超16300家，客房规模突破154万间， 持续领跑 ...

Market Overview - The hotel and catering sector experienced a decline of 0.64% on January 28, with *ST Yunwang leading the drop [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4151.24, up 0.27%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 14342.9, up 0.09% [1] Stock Performance - Key stocks in the hotel and catering sector showed mixed performance, with Junxi Hotel rising by 0.86% to 30.53, while *ST Yunwang fell by 4.42% to 2.16 [1] - The trading volume and turnover for major stocks included: - Junxi Hotel: 47,000 shares, 1.44 billion CNY - Xian Catering: 122,400 shares, 113 million CNY - Jinjiang Hotel: 58,600 shares, 156 million CNY - *ST Yunwang: 256,800 shares, 56.12 million CNY [1] Capital Flow - The hotel and catering sector saw a net outflow of 32.18 million CNY from institutional investors and 33.67 million CNY from retail investors, while retail investors had a net inflow of 65.85 million CNY [1] - Detailed capital flow for selected stocks included: - Jinjiang Hotel: Net inflow of 1.04 million CNY from institutions, but a net outflow of 1.36 million CNY from retail investors [2] - *ST Yunwang: Net outflow of 10.47 million CNY from institutions, with a net inflow of 4.75 million CNY from retail investors [2]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Overweight" (maintained) [6] Core Insights - The strategic positioning of "service consumption" has been enhanced, expected to become a core engine for driving domestic demand. The State Council's meeting on January 16 emphasized the implementation of consumption-boosting actions and the cultivation of new growth points in service consumption, providing a clear direction for consumption development in 2026 and the 14th Five-Year Plan [6] - During the Spring Festival travel season (February 2 - February 14, 2026), domestic flight ticket bookings exceeded 7.54 million, a year-on-year increase of 12%. The total expected passenger transport volume for civil aviation during the Spring Festival is projected to reach a historical high of 95 million, with a daily average of 2.38 million passengers, reflecting a year-on-year growth of approximately 5.3% [6] - The recovery of dining consumption in Q4 2025 was significantly stronger than that of retail goods, indicating a resurgence in service consumption. From October to December 2025, the year-on-year growth rates for dining revenue were 3.8%, 3.2%, and 2.2%, respectively, while retail goods growth rates were 2.8%, 1.0%, and 0.7% [6] Summary by Sections - **Recent Industry Performance**: Over the past 12 months, the industry has shown relative returns of 5.35% over one month, 7.38% over three months, and a decline of 3.0% over twelve months. Absolute returns were 6.42%, 8.38%, and 19.81% respectively [4] - **Policy Support**: The government has introduced policies to encourage service consumption, including optimizing school holiday arrangements to promote student well-being, which is expected to boost service consumption growth [6] - **Investment Recommendations**: The report suggests focusing on listed companies in the dining, hotel, and tourism sectors, including China Duty Free Group, Shouhang Hotel, Jinjiang Hotels, and others, as they are likely to benefit from the positive trends in service consumption [6]

证券研究报告：商贸零售|点评报告 行业投资评级 强于大市|维持 近期研究报告 《11 月社零数据如何？》 - 2025.12.22 12 月社零数据如何？ ⚫ 事件 | 行业基本情况 | | --- | | 收盘点位 | | 2470.34 | | --- | --- | --- | | 52 | 周最高 | 2584.65 | | 52 | 周最低 | 1877.67 | 行业相对指数表现（相对值） -8% -5% -2% 1% 4% 7% 10% 13% 16% 19% 22% 25% 2025-02 2025-04 2025-06 2025-09 2025-11 2026-01 商贸零售 沪深300 资料来源：聚源，中邮证券研究所 研究所 分析师:李鑫鑫 SAC 登记编号:S1340525010006 Email:lixinxin@cnpsec.com 国家统计局发布最新社零数据，12 月份，社会消费品零售总额 45136 亿元，同比增长 0.9%。其中，除汽车以外的消费品零售额 39654 亿元，增长 1.7%。2025 年，社会消费品零售总额 501202 亿元，比上 年增长 3.7%。其中，除汽车 ...

从数据看，重庆的酒店市场，似乎正在开启新的一轮爆发潮。 但这繁华表象之下，藏着的是重庆近万家酒店陷入贴身肉搏红海竞争的真相。 一边是旅游业火爆和政策利好推动经济发展的双重推动下酒店市场繁荣； 另一边却是热门区域酒店扎堆布局，价格战愈演愈烈，行业的整体盈利能力承压的现状。 作为投资人重点关注的酒店市场，很多人都很关心的一个问题是：现在入局重庆做酒店，还能赚到钱吗？ 重庆酒店业红海厮杀 近日，厚海发布2026年一季度中国酒店市场景气调查报告，重庆酒店景气指数位列二线城市首位。 2025年旅游业的爆发式增长是重庆酒店景气指数回暖最直接的动力。 重庆更火了——这也是过去一年里许多重庆人的真实感受。 作为初代网红城市，重庆凭借无可替代的山城、轻轨穿楼、赛博朋克、8D城市等标签，已经长红了7年。 到了2025年，央视春晚分会场、外网爆火带来的境外游客翻番式增长，又给重庆旅游添了一把火。 图源：厚海数据平台 旅游业的持续火热，为重庆酒店市场带来了持续的、强劲的住宿需求。 携程去哪儿旅行发布的数据：2026年春节重庆跻身全国入境游目的地前十、酒店预订量前十双榜单。 2025年重庆以接待国内游客突破5亿人次的数量连续三年居全国 ...

C君是一名年轻背包客，他习惯住在景区周边，这样能极大节约游玩时间成本。 01 最近不少计划寒假期间来北京旅游的外地朋友，不约而同地向劲旅君抱怨：北京的酒店怎么这么贵啊？！ A君想要趁着年前拖家带口来北京玩一趟，但在制定旅行计划时就对北京酒店的高价格感到无语。他在OTA上仔细寻摸一圈发现， 但凡是北京知名旅游景点周边，尤其是靠近地铁站的品牌连锁经济型酒店，动辄就七八百一晚起步，稍好一点的品牌连锁中高端酒 店价格直接破千。想要找便宜一点的，要么就是市区二环内不知名的小旅馆，要么只能往远郊区县找品牌连锁经济型酒店，距离市 内核心景区坐地铁都得一两个小时，就这还得四百多一晚。 劲旅君安慰道，或许是因为寒假旅游旺季，北京酒店涨点价格多少能理解。B君却摇头苦笑，这两年非节假日北京酒店的价格也不 见得便宜啊。 为此他在北京的住宿多以青旅为主。只不过他发现，主打廉价的北京青旅现在价格也在悄悄上涨。一个普通床位从原来的60-80元 涨到逼近百元，旺季甚至飙到150元以上。更让他无奈的是，即便频频涨价，北京现存的优质青旅还在不断减少，至少自己这几年 在北京住过的三五家青旅，已经没了一半。 作为资深差旅人士，B君每年频繁赴京出差， ...