证券研究报告 西部矿业 (601168 CH) 稀缺高分红铜矿股，玉龙三期扩产可期 | 华泰研究 | | | 年报点评 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025 年 | 4 月 | 17 日│中国内地 | 有色金属 | 西部矿业发布年报，2024 年实现营收 500.26 亿元（yoy+17.02%），归母净 利 29.32 亿元（yoy+5.10%），扣非净利 29.47 亿元（yoy+15.30%），低于 我们先前的预期（2024 年归母净利 37.88 亿元），主因冶炼亏损、资产减值 损失超预期。其中 Q4 实现营收 133.00 亿元（qoq+13.21%），归母净利 1.99 亿元（qoq-82.09%）。公司是 A 股少见的高分红铜矿公司；且核心资产玉龙 铜矿三期扩产项目投产后有望驱动公司进一步成长，维持"增持"评级。 2024Q4 铜冶炼加工费下滑、大额资产减值损失拖累业绩 据 SMM，国内铜精矿计价系数由 2024Q3 的 92.8%上升至 Q4 的 94%，铜 冶炼厂利润空间受到大幅压缩甚至出现亏损，公司青海铜业外购矿冶炼部分 利润承压，公司 Q4 整体毛利率环比 ...

西部矿业（601168）公告，公司控股股东及其一致行动人增持计划已实施完毕。西矿资产累计增持 645.8万股，占公司总股本的0.271%，增持金额合计为9674.7万元，全部为自有资金。增持计划实施 前，西矿集团及其一致行动人西矿资产持有公司股份7.32亿股，占公司总股本的30.72%。本次增持计划 实施后，西矿集团及其一致行动人西矿资产持有公司股份7.37亿股，占公司总股本的30.93%。 ...

Macro Overview - China's GDP grew by 5.4% year-on-year in Q1 2025, indicating a strong start to the year with better-than-expected consumption performance and sustained high growth in manufacturing investment [2][3] - The retail sales of consumer goods increased by 5.9% in March, driven by the effectiveness of the "old-for-new" policy [3] - Manufacturing investment rose by 9.1% in Q1, with significant growth in equipment purchases and consumer goods manufacturing [4] Infrastructure - Narrow infrastructure investment growth was 5.8% in Q1, supported by early issuance of government bonds and the commencement of major projects [5] - Water conservancy investment remains a key driver of growth, with improvements in cash flow for local infrastructure projects [5] Real Estate - The real estate market showed signs of recovery, with prices in first-tier cities slightly increasing and declines in second and third-tier cities narrowing [6] - Real estate investment fell by 9.9% year-on-year in Q1, with a notable decrease in office building investments [6] Industrial Performance - Industrial value-added increased by 6.5% in Q1, with March seeing a 7.7% growth, supported by factors such as export demand and new policies [7] - The production and sales rate showed a slight decline, indicating potential supply-demand imbalances [7] Employment - The urban survey unemployment rate decreased to 5.2% in March, reflecting improvements in the job market [8] - Future labor market conditions are a key concern, especially with a record number of college graduates entering the workforce [8] Satellite Industry - The satellite industry index has shown significant growth, with a 22.13% increase over the past year, outperforming major indices [12] - The industry is expected to benefit from the increasing demand for satellite applications in various sectors, including telecommunications and navigation [12][13] Company-Specific Insights 诺禾致源 (688315) - The company reported a revenue of 2.11 billion yuan in 2024, with a net profit of 197 million yuan, indicating steady growth [16] - The company is expanding its global operations, with new laboratories established in multiple countries [17][18] 上海建工 (600170) - The company achieved a net profit growth of 39.15% in 2024, with a focus on new business areas to create a second growth curve [20][21] - New contracts in emerging sectors such as urban renewal and ecological environment are expected to contribute significantly to future revenue [23] 金徽酒 (603919) - The company reported a revenue of 1.11 billion yuan in Q1 2025, with a net profit of 234 million yuan, indicating a solid start to the year [25][26] - The product structure continues to improve, with higher sales in premium segments driving growth [27][28] 洁美科技 (002859) - The company achieved a revenue of 1.82 billion yuan in 2024, with a focus on expanding its product offerings in the semiconductor packaging sector [30][31] - Significant investments in R&D are expected to enhance product quality and market competitiveness [32] 西部矿业 (601168) - The company reported a revenue of 50.03 billion yuan in 2024, with a net profit of 2.93 billion yuan, driven by increased copper production [35][36] - Future growth is anticipated from the expansion of the Yulong copper mine and improvements in production capacity [38][39]

Summary of Western Mining Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Western Mining - **Year**: 2024 - **Revenue**: 49.94 billion CNY, up 25% year-on-year [2][3] - **Net Profit**: 29.32 billion CNY, up 5% year-on-year [2][3] - **Operating Cash Flow**: 82.46 billion CNY, up 32% year-on-year [2][3] - **Dividend Plan**: 23.83 billion CNY, representing 81% of net profit [2][3] Production and Operational Highlights - **Copper Production**: Actual production of 177,500 tons, exceeding the plan by approximately 20,000 tons, up 40% year-on-year [2][3] - **Zinc and Lead Production**: Achieved planned production levels [2] - **Smelting Copper**: Completed 264,000 tons, including 125,000 tons from Yuguang Copper [2][4] - **2025 Production Targets**: - Copper: 168,200 tons - Refined Zinc: 124,600 tons - Smelting Copper: 350,000 tons - Zinc: 200,000 tons - Lead: 240,000 tons [2][4] Financial Adjustments and Impairments - **Impairment Provisions**: Total of 560 million CNY, including 380 million CNY for fixed assets and 140 million CNY for inventory [2][5] - **Qinghai Copper Loss**: Reported a loss of 680 million CNY due to external procurement costs [2][5] - **Recovery Expectations**: Anticipated recovery of inventory impairment provisions in 2025 as prices rebound [2][5] Future Projects and Developments - **Yulong Phase III Project**: Expected to reach construction readiness by July-August 2025, with production starting in the second half of 2026, aiming for an annual output of 180,000 to 200,000 tons of copper by the end of 2027 [2][6] - **Cost Management**: Mining unit costs remain stable; no significant changes expected due to mature operations [2][11] Market Outlook and Pricing - **Copper Price Forecast**: 2025 budget assumes lower copper prices compared to 2024 but still above 2023 levels, with expectations around 70,000 CNY per ton [2][7] - **Profit Expectations**: Overall profit expectations are conservative, but actual earnings may benefit from potential copper price increases [2][7] Shareholder Confidence - **Major Shareholder Activity**: Major shareholder increased ownership from 28.21% in 2019 to approximately 31% currently, with further purchases planned for April 2025, indicating strong confidence in the company's future [2][27][28] Strategic Planning - **Long-term Strategy**: A dedicated project team has been established for resource expansion in Lhasa and Golmud, focusing on mineral exploration and development [2][26] - **Debt Management**: The company is actively reducing its debt ratio, with interest-bearing debt rates decreasing from 3.1% in 2024 to 2.8% [2][25] Conclusion - **Overall Performance**: Western Mining demonstrated robust financial performance in 2024 with significant growth in revenue and cash flow, alongside strategic plans for production increases and cost management initiatives. The company maintains a strong focus on shareholder returns and long-term growth through resource expansion and operational efficiency.

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [2][12]. Core Views - The company achieved an operating revenue of 50.03 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 17%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.93 billion yuan, up 5% year-on-year [3]. - The company plans to distribute dividends of 2.38 billion yuan in 2024, with a payout ratio of 81.3% and a dividend yield of 6.22% [3]. - The copper segment remains the core business, contributing 76.46% of total revenue in 2024, with a gross profit of 6.67 billion yuan [4]. - The company is focused on optimizing its mining and smelting processes, which is expected to enhance profitability in the smelting segment [6]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported a net cash flow from operating activities of 8.25 billion yuan, a 32% increase year-on-year [11]. - The gross profit margin improved from 18.04% in 2023 to 19.90% in 2024, while the net profit margin increased from 9.90% to 10.58% [11]. - The return on equity (ROE) rose from 17.76% in 2023 to 18.12% in 2024 [11]. Production and Capacity - The company’s copper production increased by 39% year-on-year to 179,000 tons in 2024, with the core mine, Yulong Copper Mine, contributing 90% of this output [4]. - The smelting capacity for copper reached 350,000 tons per year, a 67% increase year-on-year, while zinc and lead smelting capacities doubled to 200,000 tons per year [6][10]. - The company is also expanding its iron ore production capacity through ongoing projects [5]. Future Outlook - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 56.47 billion yuan, 60.58 billion yuan, and 63.02 billion yuan, respectively, with net profits expected to reach 4.62 billion yuan, 5.12 billion yuan, and 5.55 billion yuan [12][13]. - The company is expected to benefit from ongoing improvements in production efficiency and resource recovery rates across its operations [5][6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [2][12]. Core Views - The company achieved an operating revenue of 50.03 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 17%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.93 billion yuan, up 5% year-on-year [3]. - The company plans to distribute dividends of 2.38 billion yuan in 2024, with a payout ratio of 81.3% and a dividend yield of 6.22% [3]. - The copper segment remains the core business, contributing 76.46% of total revenue in 2024, with a gross profit of 6.67 billion yuan [4]. - The company is focused on optimizing its mining and smelting processes, which is expected to enhance profitability in the smelting segment [6][10]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported a net cash flow from operating activities of 8.25 billion yuan, a 32% increase year-on-year [11]. - The gross profit margin improved from 18.04% in 2023 to 19.90% in 2024, while the net profit margin increased from 9.90% to 10.58% [11]. - The company’s return on equity (ROE) rose from 17.76% in 2023 to 18.12% in 2024 [11]. Production and Capacity - The company’s copper production increased by 39% year-on-year to 179,000 tons in 2024, with the core mine, Yulong Copper Mine, contributing 90% of this output [4]. - The smelting capacity for copper reached 350,000 tons per year, a 67% increase year-on-year, while zinc and lead smelting capacities doubled to 200,000 tons per year [6][10]. Future Outlook - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 56.47 billion yuan, 60.58 billion yuan, and 63.02 billion yuan, respectively, with net profits expected to reach 4.62 billion yuan, 5.12 billion yuan, and 5.55 billion yuan [12][13]. - The company is expected to continue benefiting from ongoing optimization projects and increased production capacities across various segments [5][6].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Copper: Cautiously bullish [6] - Option: short put @ 72,000 yuan/ton [7] Core Viewpoints - Copper prices are gradually stabilizing after a significant decline. Although smelters' profits from by - products like sulfuric acid and precious metals are still relatively good, the persistently low TC remains a concern. Macroscopically, the US dollar's credit is significantly impacted by the inconsistent tariff policies, and commodities with hedging functions such as precious metals and copper may be favored by the market [6][7] Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data Futures Quotes - On April 14, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai copper opened at 75,570 yuan/ton and closed at 76,310 yuan/ton, a 1.44% increase from the previous trading day's close. In the night session, it opened at 76,350 yuan/ton and closed at 76,070 yuan/ton, a 0.41% increase from the afternoon's close [1] Spot Situation - In the morning, the mainstream flat - water copper was quoted at a discount of 10 yuan/ton to par, high - grade copper at a premium of 10 - 20 yuan/ton, and wet - process copper like MOOK series at a discount of 80 - 70 yuan/ton. During the main trading period, as the price rose, the flat - water copper was traded at a discount of 20 - 10 yuan/ton, high - grade copper at par, and wet - process copper at a discount of 50 yuan/ton. There was domestic copper from the bonded area flowing into the domestic market. With the market at 76,000 yuan/ton, downstream price - fixing sentiment weakened [2] Important Information Summary - **Macro and Geopolitical**: Fed Governor Waller said that in a large - scale tariff scenario with a significant economic slowdown, he would prefer earlier and larger interest rate cuts; in a small - tariff scenario, cuts may occur in the second half of the year. The National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration issued a plan to promote the transformation and upgrading of coal - fired power [3] - **Mine End**: Canadian mining company Hudbay Minerals reached an agreement with a union construction industry alliance for its Copper World mine in Arizona. The project with an annual output of 85,000 tons has obtained full construction permits and is expected to complete a final feasibility study in the first half of 2026 [3] - **Smelting and Import**: Western Mining's 2024 annual report showed significant increases in the production of mineral copper, mineral molybdenum, and smelted copper. The company also produced other products such as iron concentrate, silver - containing concentrate, high - purity magnesium hydroxide, and high - purity magnesium oxide [4] - **Consumption**: Yunnan Province announced a list of provincial major projects in 2025, including 4 copper - related projects [4] - **Inventory and Warehouse Receipts**: LME warehouse receipts decreased by 650 tons to 207,825 tons, SHFE warehouse receipts increased by 2,805 tons to 89,369 tons, and the domestic electrolytic copper spot inventory decreased by 16,700 tons to 250,500 tons [5] Strategy - The overall strategy for copper is cautiously bullish. For options, a short put at 72,000 yuan/ton is recommended [6][7]

——西部矿业（601168.SH）2024 年年报点评 要点 2025 年 4 月 15 日 公司研究 冶炼业务拖累 Q4 业绩，玉龙铜矿扩产可期 | 指标 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入（百万元） | 42,748 | 50,026 | 62,006 | 63,980 | 64,998 | | 营业收入增长率 | 7.51% | 17.02% | 23.95% | 3.18% | 1.59% | | 净利润（百万元） | 2,789 | 2,932 | 3,980 | 4,603 | 4,911 | | 净利润增长率 | -19.06% | 5.10% | 35.75% | 15.66% | 6.70% | | EPS（元） | 1.17 | 1.23 | 1.67 | 1.93 | 2.06 | | ROE（归属母公司)（摊薄） | 18.27% | 17.15% | 21.30% | 23.05% | 23.35% | | P/E | 12.9 | 12.3 | 9. ...

Summary of Western Mining Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Western Mining - **Fiscal Year**: 2024 - **Revenue**: 50 billion CNY, a 17% increase year-on-year, marking the first time revenue surpassed 50 billion CNY [3][5] - **Total Profit**: 5.992 billion CNY, a 27% increase year-on-year [3] - **Net Profit**: 5.294 billion CNY, a 5% increase year-on-year [3] - **Earnings Per Share**: 1.23 CNY [3] - **Return on Equity**: 18.23% [3] Production Data - **Copper Production**: Planned 158,700 tons, actual 177,500 tons [3] - **Zinc Production**: Actual 107,000 tons, in line with plans [3] - **Lead Production**: Slightly above plan at 53,900 tons [4] - **Molybdenum Production**: Slightly above plan at 4,009 tons [4] - **Iron Concentrate Production**: Slightly below plan at 1.37 million tons [4] 2025 Financial and Production Goals - **Revenue Target**: 55 billion CNY [5] - **Total Profit Target**: 5 billion CNY [5] - **Copper Production Target**: 168,000 tons [5] - **Zinc Production Target**: 126,000 tons [5] - **Lead Production Target**: 65,700 tons [5] - **Molybdenum Production Target**: 4,005 tons [5] - **Iron Concentrate Production Target**: 1.45 million tons [5] Challenges and Risks - **Fourth Quarter Profit Decline**: Due to impairment losses on fixed and intangible assets and inventory write-downs totaling approximately 440 million CNY [3][7] - **Market Impact on Smelting**: Significant losses in the smelting sector due to market conditions, with Qinghai Copper experiencing a loss of 560 million CNY [3][19] - **Conservative Forecasting**: 2025 production targets are based on previous year's performance, aiming for stable operations amidst market uncertainties [8] Expansion Plans - **Yulong Copper Mine Expansion**: Expected production of 159,000 tons in 2025, with a capital expenditure of 4.6 to 5 billion CNY [3][15] - **Focus on Social Responsibility**: Expansion driven by local employment needs and government requirements [19] - **Future Production Capacity**: Potential to reach 180,000 to 200,000 tons post-expansion [13] Strategic Initiatives - **Cost Management**: Plans to reduce costs through procurement adjustments and operational efficiencies [19][20] - **R&D Investment**: Increased focus on innovation and product development to enhance competitiveness [20] - **Environmental Compliance**: Commitment to sustainable practices and adherence to national environmental standards [20] Market Dynamics - **Pricing Mechanism with Zijin Mining**: Adjustments in pricing based on market conditions and long-term partnerships [21] - **Raw Material Procurement**: Significant reliance on external suppliers for anodes, impacting overall production costs [22] Financial Management - **High Dividend Payout**: Reflects strong cash flow, with 8.4 billion CNY in cash inflow for 2024 [31] - **Shareholder Engagement**: Ongoing efforts to manage market value and maintain shareholder interests [29] Key Projects and Developments - **Double Benefit Project**: Expected completion by October 2025 [32] - **Environmental Upgrades**: Completed upgrades to enhance operational efficiency and sustainability [33] - **Upcoming Financial Promotion Event**: Scheduled for April 29, aimed at increasing investor engagement [34]

本报告期西部矿业的盈利能力有所提升，毛利率为19.9%，同比增幅为10.33%；净利率为10.58%，同比增幅为6.86%。这表明公司在控制成本和提 高产品附加值方面取得了进展。 现金流与债务状况 尽管公司经营性现金流表现良好，每股经营性现金流为3.46元，同比增32.17%，但货币资金为41.16亿元，较去年同期的54.36亿元减少了24.28%。 此外，公司的有息负债为220.18亿元，虽然较去年同期的226.79亿元减少了2.92%，但有息资产负债率仍高达41.67%，需关注其债务偿还压力。 成本控制与费用管理 近期西部矿业（601168）发布2024年年报，证券之星财报模型分析如下： 经营概况 西部矿业发布的2024年年报显示，公司在报告期内实现了良好的经营业绩。截至本报告期末，公司营业总收入为500.26亿元，同比上升17.02%； 归母净利润为29.32亿元，同比上升5.1%；扣非净利润为29.47亿元，同比上升15.3%。按单季度数据看，第四季度营业总收入为133.0亿元，同比上 升26.49%，但归母净利润为1.99亿元，同比下降66.33%。 盈利能力 公司在成本控制方面表现出色，三费(销售 ...