沪深两市半日成交额1.18万亿元，较上个交易日缩量529亿。 个股方面，中际旭创成交额超120亿元居首，新易盛、胜宏科技、中国平安成交额靠前。 | 治深A股 | 上证A股 | 深证A股 创业板 | 科创板 风险警示 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 代码 | | 名称 | 涨幅 | 最新价 | 涨跌 | | | 换手率 | 振幅 | 成交额 ▼ | | 1 300308 | | 中际旭创 | -0.53% | 578.91 | -3.09 | -0.14% | 0.57 | 1.90% | 3.44% | 121.53亿 | | 2 300502 | | 新易盛 | +0.27% | 429.15 | +1.15 | +0.03% | 0.52 | 3.19% | 7.71% | 120.97亿 | | 3 300476 | | 胜宏科技 | -4.04% | 290.18 | -12.22 | -0.07% | 0.54 | 3.50% | 3.12% | 86.81亿 ...

如果将2025年的A股市场比作一场大戏，海博思创无疑是其中最扣人心弦的主角。 当你打开它的K线图，一股强烈的视觉冲击力会瞬间抓住你的眼球：股价从年初那看似沉寂的57.00元低点起步，仿佛被点燃的火 箭，旱地拔葱般一路狂飙。 年初刚上市的时候估值才最低16倍（按静态PE，去年业绩算），正好是在储能行业最为悲观的时候。11月中旬盘中最高触及 426.01元的高位，这种单年内接近14倍的惊人涨幅，画出了一条陡峭而昂扬的上升曲线。 这并非单纯的资金博弈，K线背后，是市场对一家公司认知的修正。 01 "重估" 公司三季度表现，呈现了作为业务转折点的写照。 从最新招标数据来看，2025年1-11月，国内新型储能新增招标规模已突破400GWh，较之去年同比增长75%。高增长趋势背后，储 能行业拐点已经浮现。 单季度实现营收33.90亿元，同比增长高达124.4%；归母净利润单季达到3.07亿元，同比暴增872%。前三季度营收增长超过50%， 利润增长接近翻倍。 除了利润表的惊艳，现金流表的改善更具含金量。三季报显示，公司经营性现金流净额大幅转正，达到8.52亿元。此外，公司交付 数据、应收帐款/应付账款/存货周转天数显示， ...

风险提示：市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文为AI大模型自动发布，任何在本文出现的信息（包括但不 限于个股、评论、预测、图表、指标、理论、任何形式的表述等）均只作为参考，不构成个人投资建 议。 12月15日，截止午间收盘，创业50ETF（159682）跌1.42%，报1.459元，成交额1.18亿元。创业50ETF （159682）重仓股方面，宁德时代截止午盘跌1.47%，中际旭创跌0.53%，东方财富涨0.00%，新易盛涨 0.27%，阳光电源跌3.41%，胜宏科技跌4.04%，汇川技术跌2.33%，迈瑞医疗跌0.90%，亿纬锂能跌 2.85%，同花顺跌1.33%。 创业50ETF（159682）业绩比较基准为创业板50指数收益率，管理人为景顺长城基金管理有限公司，基 金经理为汪洋、张晓南，成立（2022-12-23）以来回报为48.08%，近一个月回报为3.19%。 来源：新浪基金∞工作室 ...

Core Insights - The report from Guosen Securities highlights several key areas of investment opportunity in the energy sector, particularly focusing on the growth of global energy storage demand, the expansion of AIDC power equipment industry, advancements in green methanol, adjustments in the photovoltaic supply side, recovery in the power grid equipment sector, and the impact of rising lithium battery material prices on profitability, as well as the progress in solid-state battery industrialization [1]. Group 1: Power Equipment Demand - The demand for power equipment is expected to grow rapidly in the AI era, driven by companies like Google Cloud, OpenAI, and TikTok planning to build data centers, which accelerates the infrastructure for AI [2]. - The global data center construction is accelerating, leading to an explosive growth in power demand for equipment in the AI sector [2]. Group 2: Energy Storage Demand - Global energy storage demand is continuously increasing, with a projected 404 GWh of installed capacity by 2026, representing a 38% year-on-year growth [3]. - Factors driving this demand include power supply shortages due to data centers in the U.S., unstable power grids in Europe, and supportive government policies in emerging markets [3]. Group 3: Lithium Battery Industry - The lithium battery supply chain is expected to see a reversal of the downtrend in prices, with significant recovery in prices and profitability anticipated by 2026 [4]. - New technologies such as steel-shell batteries, silicon anodes, and large energy storage cells are expected to achieve mass supply by 2026, while solid-state battery technology is accelerating towards industrialization [4]. Group 4: Wind Power Sector - The domestic wind power sector is projected to maintain a 10%-20% growth in new installations by 2026, supported by saturated orders and stable pricing [5]. - The profitability of wind turbine manufacturers is improving, with exports contributing to performance growth, indicating a synchronized recovery in both domestic and international markets [5]. Group 5: Photovoltaic Industry - The photovoltaic sector is undergoing supply-side adjustments, with a focus on cost reduction through new technologies such as low-silver and silver-free pastes, which are nearing mass production by 2026 [6]. - Companies in the photovoltaic industry are increasingly expanding into the semiconductor field, indicating a strategic shift in their business models [6].

Group 1: Power Equipment Industry - The demand for power equipment is rapidly increasing in the AI era, driven by the construction of data centers by companies like Google Cloud and OpenAI, leading to explosive growth in power equipment demand [1][29] - Global energy storage demand is expected to surge, with projections indicating that global energy storage installations will reach 404 GWh by 2026, a year-on-year increase of 38% [1][95] - Key companies to watch in the power equipment sector include Jinpan Technology, Xinte Electric, Igor, Hewei Electric, Shenghong Co., and Zhongheng Electric [1] Group 2: Lithium Battery Industry - The lithium battery supply chain is expected to see a reversal in the downward price trend, with significant price and profit recovery anticipated for most products by 2026 [2] - Solid-state battery technology is accelerating towards commercialization, with expectations for expanded production lines and increased testing by 2026, laying the groundwork for mass application from 2027 to 2030 [2][73] - Key companies in the lithium battery sector include CATL, EVE Energy, and Zhongxin Innovation [2][73] Group 3: Wind Power Industry - The domestic wind power sector is projected to maintain a 10%-20% growth in new installations in 2026, supported by saturated orders and stable pricing [2][58] - The profitability of wind turbine manufacturers is expected to recover, with export growth contributing to performance improvements [2][59] - Key companies to focus on in the wind power sector include Goldwind Technology, Sany Renewable Energy, and Oriental Cable [2][59] Group 4: Photovoltaic Industry - The photovoltaic industry is undergoing supply-side adjustments, with a focus on new technologies such as silver-free paste and perovskite, which are expected to improve cost efficiency [3][85] - The profitability of silicon material is anticipated to recover first, driven by supply-demand improvements [3][85] - Key companies to monitor in the photovoltaic sector include GCL-Poly Energy, Xinte Energy, and Tongwei Co. [3][85] Group 5: Energy Storage Industry - The energy storage market is experiencing significant growth, with domestic system tenders reaching 174.9 GWh from January to November, a year-on-year increase of approximately 165% [95] - In the U.S., large-scale energy storage installations are projected to reach 22.05 GW in 2026, a year-on-year increase of 28% [95][96] - Key companies in the energy storage sector include CATL, EVE Energy, and Sungrow Power Supply [95]

全球储能需求持续释放，国内市场化需求驱动储能订单呈现爆发式增长； 美国数据中心等负荷引起的电力供应短缺推动美国大储装机需求提升； 欧洲电网不稳定情况和现货峰谷价差拉大均带动推动储能需求；新兴市 场各国政府扶持政策频出，储能装机需求有望大幅度提升。我们预计 2026 年全球储能装机需求达到 404GWh，同比增长+38%，建议关注【宁 德时代】、【亿纬锂能】、【阳光电源】、【德业股份】、【禾望电气】、 【盛弘股份】。 锂电产业链价格下行趋势有望反转，固态电池产业化提速。锂电产业链经历 几年下行期后，2026 年多数产品价格、盈利有望显著回暖。新技术方面，钢 壳电池、硅负极、储能大电芯均有望在 2026 年实现批量供应；固态电池技 术产业化处于加速阶段，有望在 2026 年实现产线规模扩大以及装车测试增 加，为 2027-2030 年的批量化应用奠定基础。建议关注【宁德时代】、【亿 纬锂能】、【中创新航】、【珠海冠宇】、【天赐材料】、【恩捷股份】、 【当升科技】、【厦钨新能】。 风电主机厂盈利能力修复，出口贡献业绩增长。2026 年国内风电新增装机有 望保持 10%-20%增长，订单饱和价格具有良好支撑。主机盈利 ...

交银国际研究 行业剖析 行业评级 领先 2025 年 12 月 5 日 新能源与公用事业行业 2026 年展望：行业"反内卷"之下多晶硅初见曙光，大储需求超预期 行业与大盘一年趋势图 资料来源： FactSet 12/24 4/25 8/25 12/25 -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 行业表现 恒生指数 郑民康 wallace.cheng@bocomgroup.com (852) 3766 1810 文昊, CPA bob.wen@bocomgroup.com (86) 21 6065 3667 估值概要 | 公司名称 | 股票代码 | 评级 | 目标价 | 收盘价 | | -----每股盈利----- | ----市盈率---- | | | ----市账率---- 股息率 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | FY25E | | | FY26E FY25E FY26E FY25E FY26E | | | FY25E | | | | | | ...

Key Takeaways from the Expert Call on Overseas ESS Market Industry Overview - The discussion focused on the overseas Energy Storage System (ESS) market, particularly insights from Mr. Echo Che of Envision AESC, an unlisted company [1] Demand Outlook - Global ESS installation is projected to reach approximately **360 GWh** in 2026, representing a **35% year-over-year increase** from **125 GWh** in 2025 [2] - Key growth drivers include the **United States**, **Australia**, and the **Middle East**, while **Europe** is expected to grow at a slower rate of less than **10%** due to supply chain challenges [2] - In the **Middle East**, countries like the **UAE** and **Egypt** are planning significant deployments, with expected installations of **35-45 GWh** by 2026 [2] - The **U.S.** is anticipated to contribute **60-80 GWh**, with **AIDC** (Artificial Intelligence Data Centers) accounting for **15-20 GWh** [2] - Drivers for AIDC-related storage include: - Need for grid access due to high peak loads - Backup power requirements increasing from **4 hours** to **6-8 hours** - Policy incentives [2] Competitive Landscape - **Tesla** leads the U.S. market with a **40% market share**, attributed to strong technical capabilities and localized production, though it faces challenges due to higher pricing [3] - **Sungrow** follows but faces risks from policy and localization requirements [3] - **Fluence** ranks among the top three, leveraging its U.S. manufacturing base but struggles with cost control [3] - In battery cell production, **CATL** dominates with a **40% market share** in North America, driven by LFP technology and production scale, but faces growth challenges due to non-China supply chain requirements [3] - Korean companies like **LGES** are expected to gain market share due to local manufacturing and ITC credits, despite currently lagging in safety performance compared to Chinese firms [3] Price Outlook - Prices for ESS are expected to trend downward, with system integration expansion achievable in **2-3 months** [4] - In the U.S. and EU markets, ESS system prices could be **30-50% higher** for non-China producers compared to Chinese ones, particularly in AIDC applications where price sensitivity is lower [4] - The Middle East market is competitive, with pricing approaching that of China due to cost sensitivity and large project sizes [4] - By 2026, pricing pressure in the Middle East is anticipated as tier 2 Chinese battery makers enter the market, intensifying competition [4] Company Valuations and Risks - **Contemporary Amperex Technology-A (CATL)**: Price target based on **2026E EPS of RMB 20.0** with a PEG of **1.0x**; risks include weaker EV sales and battery installation, higher production costs, and market share loss [6] - **Fluence Energy Inc**: Valuation based on free cash flow, earnings, and discounted cash flows; risks include product quality, tariffs, and industry concentration [7] - **Sungrow Power Supply Co Ltd**: Price target of **RMB 233.96** based on a **25x FY26E P/E**; risks include lower-than-expected solar installations and energy storage growth [8] - **Tesla, Inc.**: Price target based on DCF, with risks including production delays and investment in autonomous driving [9] Additional Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of understanding the competitive dynamics and pricing pressures in the ESS market, particularly as new entrants emerge and existing players adapt to changing market conditions [4][3]

Summary of U.S. Battery Energy Storage System (BESS) Outlook Industry Overview - **Industry**: U.S. Battery Energy Storage System (BESS) - **Forecast**: U.S. BESS deployments expected to grow from 54 GWh in 2025 to 88 GWh in 2030, representing a 10% CAGR [1][9][14] Key Insights Growth Drivers - **Utility-Scale Visibility**: Strong project pipeline with 19 GW of planned inventory for 2025 and 32 GW through Q3 2027, with over 80% of next four quarters' additions already under construction [1][14][20] - **Interconnection Queue**: 356 GW of BESS interconnection requests expected to support growth from 2028 to 2030, even after applying a 70-80% reduction for historical operational rates [1][35] Data Center Demand - **Emerging Demand**: Data centers are increasingly integrating BESS for load flexibility and diesel replacement, with Wood Mackenzie tracking 34 GW across 12 U.S. sites, representing a potential one-third of the utility-scale forecast for 2026-30 [2][10][46][49] Supply Chain Dynamics - **Bifurcation Risks**: FEOC restrictions starting in 2026 complicate supply chains linked to China, with Korean suppliers emerging as credible alternatives. LG Energy Solution (LGES) is scaling up ESS capacity significantly [3][62][76] - **Tariff Impacts**: Tariffs on Chinese cells have fluctuated, impacting project economics, but the threat of re-escalation remains a concern [62][63] Economic Competitiveness - **Cost Analysis**: Utility-scale solar LCOE averages $50/MWh, and adding 4-hour storage raises it to ~$101/MWh, competitive with gas turbine costs [4][62] - **Domestic Content Incentives**: The 45X manufacturing tax credit and domestic content requirements are critical for maintaining project economics, with increasing thresholds from 2026 onward [79][81] Alternative Chemistries - **Emerging Technologies**: While LFP remains dominant, alternative chemistries like zinc-hybrid and sodium-ion are gaining traction for specific applications, particularly where duration and compliance with FEOC rules are critical [5][87][88] Additional Considerations - **Residential Market**: A forecasted decline in residential storage in 2026 due to the phaseout of the 25D residential solar tax credit, followed by a recovery driven by higher attachment rates [55][56] - **C&I Market**: The commercial and industrial (C&I) storage market is expected to grow at a 17% CAGR, albeit from a small base, with California being the primary market [61] Conclusion The U.S. BESS market is poised for significant growth driven by utility-scale projects, data center demand, and evolving supply chains. However, challenges such as regulatory changes, tariff impacts, and competition from alternative technologies will shape the landscape moving forward.

需求：全球装机持续增长，中国装机高位回落。2025年国内受136号文影响1-10月装机252.87GW，同比+39%，整体装机处于高位，预计全年装机 290GW，26年装机215GW，同降26%。海外市场，预计25年美国/欧洲新增装机50/70GW，同比持平，后续保持15-21%稳定增长态势。新兴市场贡献较多 增量，尤其是中东及印度国家项目规划推动，装机增速或超预期，预计25年分别达28/31GW，同增87%/29%。我们预计2025年全球新增光伏装机 599GW，同增11%，预计2026年全球新增光伏装机588GW，同减2%，受国内装机有所回落所致。 供给：反内卷陆续起效，价格逐步回升 1）各环节产能扩张停止，过剩情况有望缓解：随着行业反内卷的推进，我们预计26年起硅片、组件等环节产能扩 张将停止，甚至将出现减产，供需过剩有望改善。2）企业盈利承压，看好开工率温和回升：组件、电池、硅片环节普遍亏损，行业仍处去库与资金紧平 衡阶段，现金流质量与负债结构成为比利润更关键的因素；开工率方面，当前排产仍处底部区间，但在硅料端产能出清、自律减产带动下，行业有望在淡 季过后迎来排产的温和回升。3）头部企业建立共同体，推 ...