| 晨会纪要 | | --- | | 数据日期:2025-07-21 | 上证综指 | 深证成指沪深 | 300 指数 | 中小板综指 | 创业板综指 | 科创 50 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 收盘指数（点） | 3559.79 | 11007.48 | 4085.60 | 12493.55 | 3175.41 | 1007.89 | | 涨跌幅度（%） | 0.71 | 0.85 | 0.66 | 1.19 | 0.94 | 0.03 | | 成交金额（亿元） | 7309.05 | 9690.74 | 3779.38 | 3441.04 | 4440.16 | 269.06 | $$\overline{{{\overline{{\mathbb{M}}}}}}\cong\pm\overline{{{\mathbb{M}}}}$$ 【常规内容】 证券研究报告 | 2025年07月22日 宏观与策略 固 定 收 益 快 评 : 可 交 换 私 募 债 跟 踪 - 私 募 EB 每 周 跟 踪 （20250714-20250718） 固定收益周 ...

1、Wind数据显示，1998年至2025年二季度末，中国公募基金整体为持有人创造了5.94万亿元的利润。 二季度末，公募基金市场规模突破新高，达 33.73万亿元；公募基金整体净利润超过3800亿元； 利润排名前20的基金中，大部分都是宽基ETF，且利润多数超过20亿元。 2 、 东方电气 H 股昨日早盘出现异常交易，一度瞬间涨幅超 700% ，市场推测是 " 乌龙指 " 。 不过，有港股市场资深人士分析认为，东方电气 H 股连续出现十多笔异常高价成交，不能用常规的 " 乌龙指 " 来解释。或是由于买盘过多但卖盘挂单不足，有人趁机挂出超高价，一旦有市价买入 单，就可能以非常高的价格成交。 1 、 欧洲理事会主席科斯塔、欧盟委员会主席冯德莱恩将于 7 月 24 日访华。 国家主席习近平将会见科斯塔主席和冯德莱恩主席，国务院总理李强 将同欧盟两主席共同主持第二十五次中国 — 欧盟领导人会晤。 2 、 国务院总理李强日前签署国务院令，公布《住房租赁条例》，自 2025 年 9 月 15 日起施行。 《条例》旨在规范住房租赁活动，维护住房租赁活 动当事人合法权益，稳定住房租赁关系，促进住房租赁市场高质量发展，推动加 ...

Core Viewpoint - The SynBioCon 2025 conference will focus on the integration of AI with biomanufacturing, green chemicals and new materials, future food, and future agriculture, aiming to explore the development trends of the biomanufacturing industry during the 14th Five-Year Plan period [1]. Group 1: Conference Overview - The conference will be held from August 20-22, 2025, in Ningbo, Zhejiang [1]. - It aims to promote the transfer and transformation of scientific and technological achievements, product scaling, and talent acquisition in the biomanufacturing sector [1]. Group 2: Organizers and Supporters - Organized by Ningbo Detaizhongyan Information Technology Co., Ltd. (DT New Materials) and co-organized by several academic and research institutions [2]. - Supported by various associations and alliances, including the Chinese Society of Biotechnology and the Zhejiang Synthetic Biology Industry Technology Alliance [2]. Group 3: Key Speakers and Experts - Notable experts include Zhang Xian'en, Dean of the School of Synthetic Biology at Shenzhen University, and other prominent figures from various universities and research institutes [4][5][7][8][11][15][19][21][27][30]. - The conference will feature discussions on innovative biomanufacturing technologies and applications, including the development of bio-based products and processes [9][12][24][31]. Group 4: Conference Agenda - The agenda includes a series of forums and discussions on topics such as green chemicals, AI in biomanufacturing, and future food and agriculture [36][37]. - Activities will include a high-level roundtable, youth forums, and specialized sessions focusing on various aspects of biomanufacturing [36][37].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the impact of maintenance shutdowns at major TDI production facilities, particularly by Wanhua Chemical and Covestro, leading to a significant increase in TDI prices in the domestic market. Group 1: Maintenance Shutdowns - Wanhua Chemical announced a maintenance shutdown for its Hungarian subsidiary's MDI and TDI production starting July 23, 2025, lasting approximately 30 days [1] - Covestro's Dormagen plant experienced an electrical fire on July 12, disrupting the production of key raw materials, which directly affects TDI production [2][3] - Wanhua Chemical's TDI facility in Fujian began a 45-day maintenance period on June 5, 2023, while other facilities also initiated maintenance, affecting a total capacity of 710,000 tons, which is 43.3% of domestic capacity [4] Group 2: Price Increases - The domestic TDI market price reached 15,900 yuan/ton on July 21, 2023, an increase of 1,012 yuan/ton (6.79%) from the previous day, marking five consecutive days of price rises [5] - Spot prices surged to 15,000 yuan/ton on the same day, with a daily increase of 9.22% and a monthly increase of 31.2% [5] Group 3: Global TDI Market Dynamics - The shutdowns of major TDI production bases in Europe and Japan will enhance the importance of Chinese TDI in the global market [6][7] - As of now, global TDI capacity totals 3,367,000 tons, with Asia accounting for 2,427,000 tons (72.1%), and China alone holds 1,640,000 tons (48.7% of global capacity) [7] Group 4: Export Trends - China's net TDI exports reached 220,000 tons from January to May 2025, a year-on-year increase of 97%, with major export destinations including Vietnam, Turkey, Indonesia, and India [8] Group 5: Market Reactions - The secondary market has reacted positively, with stocks of companies like Cangzhou Dahua and Wanhua Chemical experiencing significant gains [9] - The unexpected production cuts have provided a temporary relief to TDI prices, which had been declining for two and a half years [10] Group 6: Future Considerations - The sustainability of the price increase will depend on downstream demand, as TDI is primarily used in soft foam, coatings, and adhesives, with soft foam accounting for approximately 73% of consumption [11]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the 2025 China International Engineering Plastics Industry Innovation Awards, highlighting the importance of innovation in the plastics sector and the upcoming evaluation process involving expert reviews and public voting [1][2]. Group 1: Event Overview - The event features participation from well-known companies such as Wanhua Chemical, DOMO, Asahi Kasei, and LG Chem, with over 30 new products being launched [2]. - Online voting for the "New Plastic Award" will conclude on July 23, followed by an expert review session from July 24 to July 25 [2][3]. Group 2: Evaluation Process - The online expert review for the "Innovative Materials Award" is scheduled for July 24 from 14:00 to 16:45, while the "Innovative Industry Solutions Award" review will take place on July 25 from 14:00 to 16:15 [3][6]. - The evaluation criteria include innovation degree, feasibility, economic viability, and impact [9][10][11][12]. Group 3: Award Categories and Participants - The "Innovative Materials Award" includes submissions from companies like Jiangsu Jino New Materials, Wanhua Chemical, and LG Chem, showcasing products such as flexible polyimide foam and optical-grade methyl methacrylate-styrene copolymer [4]. - The "Innovative Industry Solutions Award" features projects from companies like Suzhou Mold Flow Analysis Software and Guangdong Enbixin Intelligent Equipment, focusing on innovative solutions like vacuum weighing technology [5]. Group 4: Event Highlights - The event will gather over 600 global enterprise leaders and top scientists, promoting collaboration and exchange [13]. - It will also feature a grand award ceremony with over 100,000 exposures, establishing industry benchmarks and helping users select quality solutions [14].

Q&A 今年下半年宏观经济和政策的判断是什么？ 从上半年的经济数据来看，经济总量仍然偏稳，尤其是出口和工业生产，中国 制造业超出预期。然而，从结构上看，需求和供给分化较大，价格指标相对偏 低。内外需也存在分化。因此，下半年政策端将试图解决一些结构性问题，总 量上需要稳需求，尤其是地产消费方面。货币政策预计会进一步降息，各类政 策利率可能出现降息，也存在降准的可能性，货币政策将维持宽松。财政方面， 由于上半年经济数据较好，短期内加码财政的可能性不大，但七八月份的数据 非常关键，如果数据回落压力增大，我们估计九月、十月会有一些托底政策出 台。此外，下半年还需关注供给端的政策变化，从去年四季度开始讲，今年上 钢铁板块近期大涨受下游基建重大工程预期升温、稳增长政策方案及供 给端反内卷政策等因素影响。从供需和成本端分析，钢铁行业未来两年 存在确定性上行机会，推荐宝钢、中信特钢、华菱钢铁等龙头公司。 工程机械行业 7 月数据表现良好，内销持平略增，出口预计增长 10%以 上。雅砻江项目催化下，可分领域推荐掘进设备、土方设备、混凝土及 基础施工设备，徐工作为国企项目主要供应商受益程度较高。 半年的措施效果不明显，因此如果供 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent surge in A-share market driven by infrastructure projects, particularly the Yarlung Tsangpo River hydropower project, which has led to significant gains in related sectors such as construction materials and engineering machinery [1][9]. Group 1: Market Performance - The A-share market saw a collective rise in major indices, with the Shanghai Composite Index up by 0.72%, the Shenzhen Component Index up by 0.86%, and the ChiNext Index up by 0.87% [7]. - Over 4,000 stocks rose, with 130 stocks hitting the daily limit up, indicating strong market sentiment [7][9]. Group 2: Infrastructure Projects - The Yarlung Tsangpo River hydropower project is expected to have an annual investment that could reach 86.8% of Tibet's GDP, significantly impacting local economies and related industries [9]. - The project is anticipated to utilize advanced construction technologies, such as GIL technology, which will benefit companies in the supply chain [9]. Group 3: Sector Performance - The construction materials and engineering machinery sectors experienced a surge, with companies like China Power Construction and Tibet Tianlu seeing substantial stock price increases [9]. - The steel sector also showed strength, with companies like Xining Special Steel and Ba Yi Steel hitting the daily limit up, driven by government policies aimed at stabilizing growth in key industries [10]. Group 4: Policy and Economic Outlook - Analysts expect further monetary easing measures, including potential interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions, to support economic growth [5]. - The upcoming political bureau meeting is anticipated to discuss additional stimulus measures, reflecting a proactive approach to economic management [4][5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a recommendation for the chemical industry, indicating a positive outlook for the sector [7]. Core Insights - The report highlights significant price increases in TDI and Vitamin D3, suggesting a focus on the TDI and organic silicon sectors [1][5]. - The chemical sector outperformed the market, with a weekly increase of 1.77%, surpassing the Shanghai A-share index by 1.08 percentage points [2][15]. - Key stocks that performed well include Dongcai Technology (+33.16%) and Cangzhou Dahua (+28.47%), while stocks like Guangxin Materials (-9.26%) and Ando A (-9.05%) saw declines [2][15]. Industry Performance - In the third week of July, 20 sub-industries within the chemical sector saw increases, with the top five being modified plastics (+7.42%) and phosphate chemicals (+7.41%) [3][19]. - The dynamic PE ratio for the chemical sector is reported at 25.83 times, which is lower than the average PE of 30.02 times since 2015 [2][15]. Price and Spread Trends - The report lists the top five products with the highest weekly price increases: liquid chlorine (+21.78%), TDI (+18.83%), and Vitamin D3 (+10%) [4][22]. - The report also notes significant changes in price spreads, with the ethylene spread increasing by 81.82% and PTA spread decreasing by 357.81% [4][43]. Inventory Changes - Notable inventory changes include an increase in epoxy propane (+11.97%) and a decrease in ethylene (-8.57%) [5][61]. Recommendations - The report suggests monitoring companies such as Cangzhou Dahua and Wanhua Chemical due to the significant rise in TDI prices [5]. - Attention is also drawn to organic silicon producers like Xin'an Chemical and Xinfeng Group, following a fire incident affecting supply [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the chemical industry, indicating a "Look Favorably" investment rating [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights supply disruptions in TDI, spandex, and organic silicon, with the commencement of the Yarlung Zangbo River project expected to boost demand for civil explosives in Tibet. The elimination of outdated production capacity may improve the industry landscape [1][3]. - The report emphasizes the anticipated increase in global oil supply led by non-OPEC producers, while demand remains stable with a projected global GDP growth of 2.8%. However, the impact of tariffs and geopolitical uncertainties may affect oil demand growth [3][4]. - The report suggests that the recent fire at Covestro's German facility has led to a significant drop in TDI supply in Europe, causing prices to surge from €1900/ton to €2500/ton, with domestic prices rising from ¥12000/ton to ¥14913/ton [3][4]. Summary by Sections Industry Dynamics - The report discusses the macroeconomic outlook for the chemical industry, noting a significant increase in oil supply and stable demand, while also highlighting the potential impact of geopolitical tensions and tariff policies on oil prices [3][4]. - It mentions that coal prices are expected to decline in the medium to long term, alleviating pressure on downstream sectors, and that the U.S. may accelerate natural gas export facility construction, potentially lowering import costs [3]. Supply Chain Disruptions - The report details the supply chain disruptions in TDI, spandex, and organic silicon, with specific companies recommended for investment, including Wanhua Chemical, Cangzhou Dahua, and Hualu Hengsheng [3]. - The report notes that the recent fire at Dongyue Silicon Material's factory may tighten supply in the organic silicon market, suggesting investment in Xingfa Group, Xin'an Chemical, and Luxi Chemical [3]. Policy and Capacity Elimination - The report highlights the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology's plans to promote structural adjustments and eliminate outdated production capacity in key industries, which may lead to an improved industry landscape [3][6]. - It provides statistics on the proportion of outdated capacity in various chemical products, indicating potential benefits from policy changes [6][9]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on traditional cyclical stocks and specific companies within the chemical sector, including Wanhua Chemical, Hualu Hengsheng, and various agricultural chemical firms [3]. - It also identifies growth stocks with recovery potential in sectors such as semiconductor materials and panel materials, suggesting companies like Yake Technology and Dinglong Co [3].

Core Viewpoint - As of the end of Q2 2025, fund manager Zou Wei manages four funds, with the best-performing fund being Yuanxin Yongfeng Huili LOF (501051), which experienced a net value decline of 0.79% in the quarter [1]. Fund Performance Summary - Yuanxin Yongfeng Huili LOF has a scale of 1.59 billion yuan and an annualized return of 7.42%, with a quarterly decline of 0.79% [2]. - Yuanxin Yongfeng Xinyan A has a scale of 6.47 billion yuan, an annualized return of 3.88%, and a quarterly decline of 1.04% [2]. - Yuanxin Yongfeng Xinyan C has a scale of 0.62 billion yuan, an annualized return of 3.42%, and a quarterly decline of 1.14% [2]. - Yuanxin Yongfeng Selected Return Mixed (006564) has a scale of 0.52 billion yuan, an annualized return of 6.44%, and a quarterly decline of 1.90% [2]. - Zou Wei's management of Yuanxin Yongfeng Selected Return Mixed has yielded a cumulative return of 46.37% with an average annualized return of 6.54% [2]. Stock Trading Cases - Notable stock trading cases include: - Ningde Times: Bought in Q2 2020, held for 5 years, with an estimated return of 234.42% and a company performance growth of 808.86% [3][5]. - Wanhuah Chemical: Bought in Q3 2019, held for 4 years and 1 quarter, with an estimated return of 88.17% and a company performance growth of 157.69% [6]. - Ping An Bank: Bought in Q1 2021, held for 1 year and 2 quarters, with an estimated return of -38.52% despite a company performance growth of 25.26% [7]. Stock Performance Analysis - The performance of stocks held by Zou Wei shows a mix of high returns and losses, indicating a strategic approach to stock selection and timing [3][4][5][6][7].