碳酸锂专题：钠电池量产是否会提速 20260226 负极材料是钠电规模化量产的关键卡点，生物质路线虽易于起量但稳定 性不足，未来更稳定的方向是以化工品原料制备硬碳，但产业化推进难 度更高。 Q&A 2024 年—2025 年碳酸锂价格低位阶段，钠电产业链整体进展、产能建设与 技术迭代情况如何？ 2024 年、2025 年行业整体处于较为痛苦且煎熬的阶段，主要原因在于锂价过 低、锂电池价格内卷、产能过剩及库存压力叠加，导致钠电缺乏足够的市场空 间，同时资本端质疑加大，部分创业公司出现退出。尽管处于"没有市场"的 阶段，钠电技术迭代速度仍然较快，电池核心指标在能量密度、循环寿命、低 温性能、快充与安全等维度均出现明显进步。上述进步来自于多场景试错与示 范带来的闭环反馈，覆盖动力与储能，以及两轮车、三轮车、低速车、工程机 械、重卡、叉车、车载电源与备用电源等应用端实践，推动系统端、电池 PACK 到电芯、单体及材料端的协同优化。 在材料与产能侧，行业规模化水平 显著提升：2024 年普遍处于百吨级、千吨级；至 2025 年，正极、负极均已 出现万吨级产线与产能建设。实际规划产能与在建产能中，单体规模至少在 5,00 ...

中国磷矿石对外依存度高，草甘膦等农业核心除草剂依赖进口，本土磷 矿资源面临枯竭，战略价值凸显，美国已将其列为国防关键物资，预示 全球磷矿石资源竞争加剧，为国内产业带来机遇。 全球磷矿石储量集中于摩洛哥，中国储量占比 5%，但开采过度问题突 出。2024 年全球产量集中在中国、摩洛哥等五国，中国占比近半，自 给率高但出口管控严格。 2025 年中国磷矿石产量增长主要来自西南地区，湖北、云南为"双核 驱动"，区域集聚特征明显，受主产区产能释放和新能源需求提升驱动。 2025 年磷矿石新增产能落地低于预期，未来几年仍有较大新增规划， 但资源审批、环保要求和开采技术是关键约束。新能源企业也开始布局 矿产资源，产业链一体化趋势增强。 2021-2025 年国内磷矿石价格上涨至高位盘整，核心原因是供给偏紧、 下游需求增加以及行业龙头企业惜售，短期内难以改变高位震荡格局。 磷肥作为磷矿石主要下游需求保持平稳，但产能过剩问题突出，出口配 额减少。工业级磷酸一铵在新能源拉动下高速增长，成为拉动磷矿石需 求的重要力量。 新能源是磷矿石下游需求增长最快板块，磷酸铁和磷酸铁锂快速扩张， 但受产能扩张快于需求释放影响，开工率出现阶段性 ...

Summary of CATL Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Ltd. (CATL) - **Stock Code**: 300750.SZ - **Market Cap**: Rmb1,593,409 million (approximately US$231,956 million) [4] Key Industry Insights - **Lithium Price Dynamics**: The recent ban on lithium exports from Zimbabwe is expected to lead to a cyclical rather than structural increase in lithium prices. The ban primarily affects spodumene, while lithium sulfate exports remain unchanged [2][3] - **Supply Impact**: The export ban may result in a 7-8% monthly supply cut in China starting from April 2026, necessitating close monitoring of the policy's execution [2] - **Demand Risks**: Potential downside risks for lithium prices include weaker demand from electric vehicles (EVs) and the resumption of operations at CATL's JXW lepidolite mine, which could produce 10,000 tons of lithium carbonate equivalent (LCE) per month [2] Financial Performance and Projections - **Net Profit Stability**: CATL's net profit per watt-hour (wh) is projected to remain stable at Rmb0.11 despite rising costs, due to the company's ability to pass on most lithium costs and its comprehensive upstream investments [1][3] - **Investment Income**: In the first nine months of 2025, CATL reported Rmb5.2 billion in investment income, with Rmb2.8 billion expected from its investment in CMOC [3] - **Earnings Boost**: The potential restart of the JXW mine in June could increase CATL's earnings by Rmb1 billion per month based on current lithium prices [1] Investment Recommendations - **Buy Rating**: The recommendation is to "Buy on Dip," as short-term weaknesses in CATL's stock present a buying opportunity for long-term investors [1][6] - **Target Price**: The target price for CATL shares is set at Rmb571, implying a potential upside of 65% from the current price of Rmb346 [4][8] - **Expected Returns**: The expected total return is projected at 67.3%, with a dividend yield of 2.3% [4] Risks and Considerations - **Market Risks**: Risks that could hinder CATL from achieving its target price include lower-than-expected EV demand, increased competition in the EV battery market, and higher raw material costs [8] - **Competitive Landscape**: Tier-2 battery manufacturers may face more pressure due to insufficient supply chain investments compared to CATL [3] Conclusion - CATL is positioned to maintain stable profitability through strategic upstream investments, despite potential challenges from rising lithium costs and market dynamics. The company's strong financial performance and favorable market conditions present a compelling investment opportunity for long-term investors.

ab 24 February 2026 Global Research Lithium Catching up with UBS China Lithium Analyst Sky Han Balance of risks for lithium price outlook tilted to upside from spot We caught up with UBS' China Lithium Analyst Sky Han for a detailed run through of latest views, news and insights into the lithium sector in China post Lunar New Year. Demand: EV demand to recover from early air pocket, while upside risk to ESS The demand outlook is mixed but overall still positive across EV and BESS related demand. For ESS, cu ...

J P M O R G A N Global Markets Strategy 22 February 2026 This material is neither intended to be distributed to Mainland China investors nor to provide securities investment consultancy services within the territory of Mainland China. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. Asia Equity Strategy From a 'rotation' to an 'allocation' mindset in China When we upgraded China to OW in our Asia allocation late last November (2026 O ...

明泰铝业 20260227 摘要 公司 2025 年预计销量约 158 万吨，年度利润创历史新高，主要得益于 销量增长和产品结构调整，而非加工费上涨，体现经营质量的实质性改 善。 宏盛新材首条气垫炉于 2025 年三季度末投产，满产对应产能 10 万吨， 虽当年贡献有限，但 2026 年销售目标为 5-8 万吨，标志着公司在高端 产品热处理装备上的重要进展。 公司计划 2026 年投产第二条气垫炉，整体气垫炉体系规划为三条产线， 满产后总规模约 25 万吨，进一步提升高端产品生产能力。 2025 年全年吨净利在 1,200 元以上，2026 年 1 月销量显著高于去年 同期，表明整体需求稳定，未出现明显下滑。 2026 年销量增长主要来自亿瑞新材的贡献，韩国光阳铝业预计带来约 2 万吨增量，宏盛气垫炉主要作用在于高端产品配套和结构改善，不直接 新增产能。 亿瑞新材新增 72 万吨产能预计 2027-2028 年每年新增约 20 万吨，至 2030 年达产，届时公司整体规模预计达约 230 万吨，国内暂无其他重 大产能项目规划。 公司将继续优化产品结构，新增产能主要用于高端产品开发与供给，并 积极拓展新能源领域 ...

津巴布韦最新锂矿政策解读及现状分析 20260227 摘要 津巴布韦新规明确限制代理商和第三方贸易商出口锂矿，要求出口主体 必须是持有有效采矿权且拥有经批准选矿厂的矿业公司，旨在规范资源 开发和出口秩序。 政策新增省级矿业办公室推荐信要求，强化地方层级审核，出口需经贸 部、税务局、矿业委员会等多部门参与监管，海关及地方监管部门执行， 未按规定办理出口许可将被拒绝放行。 津巴布韦锂精矿出口规模若按 6.0 品位折算，2025 年预计约为 40 万吨， 但若按未折算的绝对量口径，则在上百万吨级别，品位差异是造成折算 差异的核心因素。 中资矿企补交材料并恢复正常出口的周期预计约 1~3 个月，但由于企业 通常持有未过期且配额未用尽的出口许可，短期内中国盐厂面临原料断 供风险不大。 津巴布韦锂矿出口配额并非一次性核定全年量，而是分批次申请、滚动 审批，单次配额会锁量锁价，申请规模通常与自身产出能力匹配，一年 内可能需申请多次。 使用，并不构成对所有存量配额的即时冻结或全面叫停。 本轮政策相较 2022 年、2023 年讨论口径，最关键的新增变化是什么？政策 出台的长期背景是什么？ 相较 2022 年、2023 年沟通 ...

1 March 2026 | 9:48AM HKT Portfolio Strategy Research CHINA STRATEGY AI changes the game (Part 2): A top-down guide to the Chinese AI universe AI has indeed changed the game over the past one year A year ago, we put forward our thought process (Part 1 of this series) on how AI could impact Chinese stocks via the profit, valuation, and portfolio flow channels. Since the "DeepSeek moment" in January 2025, AI adoption has accelerated, average token costs have fallen sharply, and AI has become a dominant theme ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the electric power equipment sector [17] Core Viewpoints - The explosive growth in Token usage abroad is driving domestic computing power demand, leading to price increases that boost the IDC and electric power equipment sectors [5][15] - The demand side shows that China's Token usage surged to 51.6 trillion in the week of February 16-22, marking a 127% increase over three weeks, surpassing the U.S. usage of 27 trillion [5][15] - The domestic AI models are leading globally, with four out of the top five models in terms of usage being Chinese, contributing to 85.7% of the total [5][15] - The tight supply of computing power is causing some manufacturers to raise prices, which is expected to improve profitability across the industry chain [5][15] Summary by Sections Investment Insights - The current domestic computing power market has shifted from "external replacement" to "demand-driven active selection" [16] - The explosive growth in Token usage is expected to drive demand for GPU servers, IDC cabinets, and high-power density data centers, enhancing the industry's outlook [16] - The report suggests focusing on AI infrastructure construction, particularly in the IDC sector, with recommended companies including Dazhi Technology, Runze Technology, and Kehua Data [6][16] Industry Dynamics - The electric power equipment sector has shown strong performance, with a 1.89% increase last week, ranking 13th among 28 sub-industries [35] - The report highlights significant investments in high-voltage projects, including a 43.74 billion yuan investment in the Daqing-Mongolia 1000 kV project [20] - The National Grid has completed investments of 12.48 billion yuan in grid production and infrastructure projects, reflecting a year-on-year increase of over 120% [20] Key Companies and Profit Forecasts - The report provides profit forecasts for key companies, with recommendations for investment: - Liangxin Co., Ltd. (Buy) with an EPS forecast of 0.28 in 2024, increasing to 0.44 in 2026 [10] - Sifang Co., Ltd. (Buy) with an EPS forecast of 0.86 in 2024, increasing to 1.19 in 2026 [10] - Jinpan Technology (Buy) with an EPS forecast of 1.26 in 2024, increasing to 2.20 in 2026 [10]

证券研究报告 行业周报 锂矿供给收缩价格上涨，无人驾驶持续推进 新能源汽车行业周报 投资评级： （ ） 报告日期： 推荐 维持 2026年03月01日 n 分析师：黎江涛 n SAC编号：S1050521120002 投资要点 供需结构持续优化，众多产品价格上行。根据中汽协数据，1月，我国新能源汽车产销分别完成104.1万辆和94.5万辆，同比 分别增长2.5%和0.1%。新能源汽车新车销量达到汽车新车总销量的40.3%。供给端，电池及主机厂新品不断推出，材料结构 优化，需求端反馈积极，供需结构持续优化。价格层面，产业链历经价格大幅下行，资本开支不断收缩，供需格局不断优化， 行业协会、产业链公司均在积极优化产能与供给，推行"反内卷"，力争价格保障企业盈利。整体而言，产业链价格企稳回升， 部分环节如碳酸锂、磷酸铁锂需求强劲，供给偏紧，价格进入上升阶段，看好产业链优质公司。 行业评级及投资策略： 供给端部分企业开始收缩资本开支，供需结构在边际优化，产业链众多产品价格持续上行。继续优选 有望贡献超额收益方向，看好数据中心液冷、固态电池、电池材料α品种、机器人阿尔法品种、自动驾驶等方向。维持新能源 汽车行业"推荐"评 ...