2025 年 12 月 15 日 投资评级：看好（维持） 商贸零售 行业走势图 《医美化妆品 11 月月报：美丽田园收 购思妍丽 100%股权，双十一大促落幕 美 妆 表 现 亮 眼 — 行 业 点 评 报 告 》 -2025.12.3 11 月社零同比+1.3%，整体增速有所承压 ——行业点评报告 | 黄泽鹏（分析师） | 李昕恬（联系人） | | --- | --- | | huangzepeng@kysec.cn | lixintian@kysec.cn | | 证书编号：S0790519110001 | 证书编号：S0790125100021 | 数据来源：聚源 -36% -24% -12% 0% 12% 24% 2024-12 2025-04 2025-08 商贸零售 沪深300 相关研究报告 《商务部明确零售品质转型，关注永 辉超市调改成效 — 行 业 周 报 》 -2025.12.14 《林清轩更新招股书，关注高端国货 护 肤 公 司 上 市 进 展 — 行 业 周 报 》 -2025.12.7 lixintian@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790125100021 2025 年 11 月 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese beauty brand Marubi Biotechnology (丸美生物) is preparing for a Hong Kong IPO after experiencing a modest stock performance in A-shares, with a year-to-date increase of only 5.3% compared to significant gains by its Hong Kong counterparts [2][3]. Group 1: Company Overview - Marubi Biotechnology was founded in April 2002 and went public on the Shanghai Stock Exchange in July 2019 [3]. - The company focuses on synthetic biology technology and has developed skincare products with anti-wrinkle, firming, and repairing effects, particularly through its core technology of recombinant collagen [3]. - Marubi operates two main brands: Marubi, which specializes in eye and facial care solutions, and Lianhuo, a cost-effective makeup brand focusing on base makeup products [3]. Group 2: Financial Performance - Marubi's revenue from 2022 to 2024 was reported as 1.732 billion RMB, 2.226 billion RMB, and 2.970 billion RMB, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 31.0% [6]. - The net profit for the same period was 167 million RMB, 278 million RMB, and 342 million RMB, achieving a CAGR of 43.0% [6]. - However, net profit growth has slowed significantly, with a year-on-year increase of only 2.9% in the first nine months of the current year [6]. Group 3: Sales Channels - Marubi's sales channels include both online and offline, with online direct sales through platforms like Douyin, Tmall, and JD.com, and offline sales through distributors to specialty stores, department store counters, and beauty salons [5]. - The proportion of revenue from online direct sales has increased from 46.4% in 2022 to 74.8% in the first nine months of 2025, indicating a strong shift towards online sales [7]. Group 4: Dividend Policy and Controversy - Marubi has faced controversy over its substantial dividend payouts, which totaled 76.2 million RMB, 100 million RMB, 309 million RMB, and 301 million RMB from 2022 to 2025 [12]. - The company's significant dividends have raised questions among investors, especially in light of declining net profit growth and the potential impact on cash reserves [11][12]. - The major shareholders, Sun Huaqing and Wang Xiaopu, hold approximately 80.8% of the company, leading to concerns about the alignment of interests between the company and its investors [12]. Group 5: Future Plans - Marubi plans to use the funds raised from its IPO for enhancing its online and offline consumer engagement capabilities, marketing activities, and expanding its R&D team [13]. - The company aims to improve its supply chain capabilities and general working capital through the proceeds from the IPO [13].

北京市房山区燕山市场监督管理分局关于2025年度下半年化妆品监督抽检信息的公告 （二）不合格样品信息 无不合格样品。 特此公告 | | 化妆品监督抽检合格产品信息 | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 序 | 抽样编号 | 标称生产企 | 标称生产企业地址 | 样 品 | 被抽样单位 | 样品名称 | 规格型 | 限期使用日 | 备 | | 号 | | 业名称 | | 类 | 名称 | | 号 | 期 | 注 | | | | | | 型 | | | | | | | | | 北京大宝化 | 北京市北京经济技术 | 防 | 北京京燕美 廉美超市有 | 大宝水感 | | 实际限期使 | 区 级 监 | | 1 | 253123Z039 | 妆品有限公 | | 晒 | | 多效防晒 | 50克/ | 用日 | | | | | | 开发区荣华中路12号 | | 限公司紫燕 | | 盒 | | 督 | | | | 司 | | 类 | 中路店 | 露 | | 期:20280522 | 抽 | | | ...

Group 1: Lululemon Financial Performance - Lululemon reported a 7% year-over-year increase in global net revenue to $2.6 billion, but net profit decreased by 12.8% to $307 million [1] - The company experienced a significant 46% year-over-year increase in net revenue from the China market, leading global performance [9] - The CEO Calvin McDonald will step down at the end of January 2026, with interim leadership provided by the CFO and CBO during the search for a new CEO [5] Group 2: Market Developments in Fashion and Retail - Musinsa opened its first overseas flagship store in Shanghai, with plans to expand to over 100 stores in China within five years, targeting a revenue of 1 trillion KRW (approximately 4.78 billion RMB) by 2030 [2] - The opening of the largest Dior store in Beijing signifies a recovery in the luxury market in China, showcasing a blend of retail and art [6] - Marubi plans to list on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, having shown significant revenue growth in its main brands [10] Group 3: Investment Activities - L'Oréal is increasing its stake in the medical beauty giant Gauderm, raising its total ownership to 20% [14] - Ermenegildo Zegna has made a second investment in the Canadian running brand Norda, indicating a strategic move into the outdoor market [15] - Unilever has spun off its ice cream division into a standalone company, which has successfully listed in Amsterdam, London, and New York, capturing over 20% of the global ice cream market [16]

Group 1: Lululemon's Financial Performance and Leadership Changes - Lululemon reported a 7% year-over-year increase in global net revenue to $2.6 billion, but net profit decreased by 12.8% to $307 million [2][6] - The CEO Calvin McDonald will step down on January 31, 2026, amid financial pressures, with interim leadership provided by the CFO and CBO [4][6] - The company's performance in the Chinese market was particularly strong, with net revenue surging 46% year-over-year [6] Group 2: Market Developments and New Entrants - Musinsa, a South Korean fashion retail platform, opened its first overseas flagship store in Shanghai and plans to open over 100 stores in China within five years [3] - The largest Dior store in China opened in Beijing, signaling a recovery in the luxury market [5] - The ice cream company "Dream Dragon" was listed independently in Amsterdam, London, and New York, capturing over 20% of the global ice cream market [11] Group 3: Investment Activities - L'Oréal announced an increase in its stake in the medical beauty giant Gaudermé, raising its total ownership to 20% [9] - Zegna made a second investment in the Canadian running brand Norda, indicating a strategic move into the outdoor market [10] - Marumi plans to list on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, having shown significant revenue growth in its main brands [7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the retail sector, focusing on companies with strong operational resilience or signs of bottom reversal [6][63]. Core Insights - The focus has shifted from policy catalysts to fundamental performance, with an emphasis on companies demonstrating operational resilience or potential recovery from low points [2][15]. - The retail sector experienced a relatively small decline of -0.21% during the week of December 8-12, 2025, outperforming other consumer-related sectors [1][7]. - The report highlights specific stocks that have shown significant price movements, such as Guai Bao Pet and TCL Electronics, which saw increases due to various catalysts [2][16]. Summary by Sections Market Overview - The retail sector's performance was relatively stable compared to other sectors, with a decline of only -0.21%, ranking 12th among all sectors [1][7]. - The overall market sentiment has shifted towards technology and high-end manufacturing, leading to weaker returns in consumer and cyclical sectors [2][15]. Stock Performance - Notable gainers included Guai Bao Pet, which rose by 2.7%, and TCL Electronics, which increased by 2.5%, attributed to factors such as oversold rebounds and improved performance expectations [2][16]. - Conversely, stocks like Pop Mart faced declines due to disappointing sales during the overseas Black Friday promotions, raising concerns about future growth [2][16]. Future Outlook - The report suggests that investment opportunities may be limited as policy expectations have stabilized, recommending stocks with strong fundamentals and low valuation percentiles [3][17]. - Three main investment themes are proposed: benefiting from holiday travel and tourism, domestic brands with competitive advantages, and durable goods companies likely to benefit from U.S. interest rate cuts [3][17]. Sector News - In the cosmetics sector, sales on major platforms reached 37.64 billion yuan in the first 11 months, with Proya leading in several categories [4][18]. - The home appliance sector saw the launch of a new smart air conditioning factory by Xiaomi, enhancing its production capabilities [4][19]. - The furniture sector is addressing consumer pain points with new commitments from leading companies to ensure quality and service [4][20].

港股IPO监管升级，丸美生物能否越过"财务问题"门槛成功上市？ 最近，香港资本市场有点"不太平"。 近日，香港证监会与港交所罕见地联名致函所有保荐机构，直指当前港股IPO申请材料质量下滑、不合规行为增多。信中措辞严厉：招股书"复制粘贴"、业 务描述模糊、数据选择性呈现、夸大市场地位、对基本事实缺乏认知……甚至有投行负责人在关键流程中失联，或指派的人员根本搞不清自家项目。 这不是小题大做。今年截至11月底，港股IPO募资额已飙至2594亿港元，同比激增2.28倍，创四年新高。火热背后，是近400宗上市申请堆积如山——年初还 只有100宗左右。中介机构人手吃紧，部分项目被塞给经验不足的新人操盘，"重数量、轻质量"的苗头已经冒出来了。 此外，值得关注的是丸美生物的"分红"操作。 过去几年，丸美生物持续进行大额分红。以今年8月为例，丸美生物宣布进行半年度分红1亿元，占当期净利润的53.97%。自A股上市以来，丸美生物累计分 红已达10.83亿元，占其A股募资净额的137.10%。值得留意的是，2023年及2024年，丸美生物分红比例均超过80%。 由于其独特的股权结构，大部分分红流向了丸美生物实控人家族。创始人孙怀庆 ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates a weak performance in the cosmetics and medical beauty sector, with the Shenwan Beauty Care Index declining by 1.6% from December 5 to December 12, 2025, underperforming the market [3][4]. Core Insights - The cosmetics sector faced pressure in November, with overall GMV in the Taobao system showing weakness due to the pre-promotion of the Double 11 sales event and the rise of Douyin as a sales channel. Brands like Han Shu and Lin Qingxuan maintained stable GMV, while others like Feicui continued to grow significantly [3][9]. - The collagen medical beauty segment is expanding, with two new animal-derived collagen products approved for market entry, expected to drive growth in this area [3][9]. - The report highlights the leading market share of Minoxidil products from Mandi International in the hair loss treatment market, with a steady revenue growth from 982 million yuan in 2022 to approximately 1.455 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a CAGR of 21.7% from 2022 to 2024 [10][11]. - L'Oréal's acquisition of an additional 10% stake in Galderma, raising its total ownership to 20%, signifies a strategic shift towards the medical beauty and skin health sectors, aiming to adapt to the slowing growth in the Chinese beauty market [3][18]. Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The Shenwan Beauty Care Index and its sub-indices for cosmetics and personal care products have shown declines of 1.2% and 1.7%, respectively, indicating underperformance compared to the Shenwan A Index [4][6]. Key Market Developments - The overall GMV for cosmetics in November was weak, influenced by earlier sales spikes in October and competition from Douyin [9]. - The approval of new collagen products is expected to enhance the supply side of the medical beauty market, with projections for continued expansion in 2026 [9][22]. Company Highlights - Mandi International has maintained a dominant position in the Minoxidil market, with its products accounting for approximately 57% and 71% of the market share in the hair loss treatment and Minoxidil categories, respectively, as of 2024 [11][13]. - The report notes that the Chinese consumer healthcare market is projected to grow from 931.3 billion yuan in 2018 to 16.42 trillion yuan by 2024, with significant growth in hair health and skin health segments [12][13].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook on the cosmetics and medical beauty industry, despite recent underperformance compared to the market [3][4]. Core Insights - The cosmetics and medical beauty sector has shown weaker performance, with the Shenwan Beauty Care Index declining by 1.6% from December 5 to December 12, 2025, underperforming the market [4][5]. - The report highlights that the November sales in the cosmetics sector were impacted by pre-Double 11 promotions and the rise of Douyin as a sales channel, leading to a weaker overall GMV [4][10]. - The collagen medical beauty segment is expanding, with two new animal-sourced collagen products approved for market, indicating growth potential in this area [4][10]. - The report emphasizes the strong market position of Mandi International in the minoxidil hair growth market, with a revenue increase from 982 million yuan in 2022 to approximately 1.455 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a CAGR of 21.7% [4][11][12]. - L'Oréal's recent acquisition of an additional 10% stake in Galderma signifies a strategic shift towards medical aesthetics and skin health, aiming to adapt to the slowing growth in the Chinese beauty market [4][21]. Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The Shenwan Beauty Care Index decreased by 1.6%, with the Shenwan Cosmetics Index down by 1.2% and the Shenwan Personal Care Index down by 1.7% during the specified period [4][5]. - Notable stock performances included Water Sheep Co. (+5.9%) and Jinsong New Materials (+4.3%), while Hongmian Co. (-10.6%) and Juzhi Biological (-8.4%) faced significant declines [7]. Market Trends - The overall GMV for cosmetics in November was weak, influenced by the earlier sales surge in October and the emergence of Douyin as a competitive sales platform [4][10]. - The report notes that brands like Han Shu and Lin Qingxuan maintained stable GMV, while brands like Feicui continued to experience high growth [4][10]. Company Highlights - Mandi International has established a leading position in the minoxidil market, with a market share of approximately 57% in the hair loss treatment sector and 71% in the minoxidil product market as of 2024 [4][15]. - The company has shown consistent revenue growth, with a net profit increase from 2022 to the first half of 2025, indicating a robust business model [4][12][15]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies with strong product lines and high profitability in the medical beauty sector, such as Ai Meike, while also suggesting attention to companies like Langzi Co. and Ru Yi Chen [4][10].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "stronger than the market," indicating an expected performance that exceeds the market by more than 5% within the next six months [28]. Core Insights - The Central Economic Work Conference emphasized the implementation of consumption-boosting actions and the development of urban and rural resident income plans, which are expected to enhance the performance and valuation recovery of the consumer sector [3][9]. - The tourism sector is anticipated to see continued growth, with leading companies like Trip.com Group and Huazhu Hotels responding quickly to consumer demand [3]. - The beauty industry is experiencing steady growth, with a focus on companies that can adapt to market changes and integrate products, brands, and channels effectively [3]. - The sports and outdoor apparel sector is expected to benefit from policy support, presenting investment opportunities in leading brands with market share growth potential [3]. - The media sector should focus on niche markets related to consumer sentiment, which may provide opportunities for companies with strong performance certainty [3]. - In the food and beverage sector, leading companies are expected to maintain market share through effective brand management, particularly in high-end and mid-range liquor segments [3]. - The snack segment, particularly konjac products, continues to show strong growth potential, while dairy companies may enter a profit recovery phase [3]. Summary by Sections Social Services - The industry is evolving, with a focus on companies that actively respond to changing consumer demands, particularly in tourism and beauty sectors [3][8]. Macro Dynamics - The Central Economic Work Conference outlined key tasks for 2026, emphasizing the importance of domestic demand and the implementation of consumption-boosting actions [9]. Industry Dynamics - Disney's investment in OpenAI and its strategy to control fan engagement through authorized channels reflects a significant trend in the media industry [10]. Food and Beverage - Alcohol - The majority of liquor companies reported a deeper decline in net profits in Q3 2025 compared to Q2 2025, indicating ongoing challenges in the sector [3][19]. - The high-end liquor segment remains resilient, with leading brands expected to enhance their market positions [3][20]. Food and Beverage - Consumer Goods - The snack segment, particularly konjac products, continues to show strong growth potential, while dairy companies may enter a profit recovery phase [3][25]. Home Appliances - The electric two-wheeler industry faced a significant decline in production and sales in November 2025, indicating challenges in consumer demand [26].