跨境出海丨市场观察 本周看点： -2026年海外仓 智造出 海新方式：聚焦美国海外仓市场新版匹配推荐； -2025出海盘点： 下一片 出海热土，为什么还是中东？ -出海2026：决定营销成败的是什么 ？ 概要： 2025年中东市场进入"静默增长期"，中企从蜂拥转向精耕细作。普华永道数据显示， 44%中企已制定详细中东计划，40%实现盈利，业务收入占比显著提升。中企布局呈现三大趋 势：1）从沙特、阿联酋向GCC国家下沉，如Keeta覆盖沙特20城后拓展至卡塔尔等国；2）合 作模式升级为产业链协同，如金蝶在卡塔尔设立区域总部输出数字化能力；3）利用各国优势 构建枢纽网络，如顺丰与阿曼物流集团合作。中东资本也转向理性投资，收缩体育等长周期项 目，聚焦AI、游戏等高潜力领域，如沙特打造低成本AI数据中心，PIF收购艺电。市场整体从 风口驱动转向务实运营，强调合规、本地化与可持续盈利。 3.出海2026：决定营销成败的是什么？ 关键词： AI,大模型,出海营销,红人营销,精准投放 概要： CES 2026聚焦AI，其在2025年已重塑商业，尤其在内容生产和网红营销领域。AI大模 型助力品牌精准营销，如扫地机品牌获3亿+ ...

Core Viewpoint - The storage chip market is experiencing a "super cycle" driven by AI, leading to significant price increases and improved profitability for storage companies, while terminal manufacturers face pressure to raise prices or reduce specifications [1][3][7]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The storage market is emerging from a low point, with many companies reporting substantial profit increases due to stabilizing prices driven by AI demand [1][2]. - As of January 29, 2026, 52 storage-related companies in the A-share market have issued performance forecasts for 2025, with 25 companies expecting profit increases, and 31 companies reporting year-on-year net profit growth [1][2]. - Notable profit increases include Bawei Storage with a projected growth of 520.22%, Shangluo Electronics at 344.92%, and Jiangbolong at 210.82% [2]. Group 2: Price Trends - Market research indicates that storage prices are expected to rise by 40% to 50% in Q1 2026 and by approximately 20% in Q2 2026, surpassing historical highs [3][4]. - Companies like Jiangbolong attribute their recovery to the stabilization of storage prices and increased demand from AI servers, leading to a supply-demand imbalance [2][5]. Group 3: Competitive Positioning - Storage manufacturers are shifting focus from consumer markets to enterprise-level markets, such as data centers and AI servers, where profit margins are higher due to lower price sensitivity [5][6]. - Companies are investing in technology and production capabilities to enhance their competitive edge, with Jiangbolong planning to raise 3.7 billion yuan for technology development and production expansion [6]. Group 4: Impact on Terminal Manufacturers - Terminal manufacturers are facing significant cost pressures due to rising component prices, leading to a projected 14.8% decrease in global laptop shipments in Q1 2026 [7][8]. - Major brands like Lenovo and Dell have begun raising prices on their products, with Lenovo increasing prices by 500 to 1500 yuan on mid-to-high-end models [8][9]. - The rising costs of memory components are impacting the profitability of smartphone manufacturers, with companies like Transsion Holdings reporting a 54.11% decline in net profit due to increased supply chain costs [9].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the challenges faced by *ST Boda (波导股份), a once-prominent mobile phone manufacturer, highlighting its struggle to adapt to the smartphone era and the potential risks of delisting from the stock market due to financial performance issues [4][5][6]. Group 1: Financial Performance and Delisting Risks - *ST Boda is at risk of being delisted due to financial performance, with a projected revenue of 4.50 billion to 4.90 billion yuan for 2025, and a net profit of 6 million to 8 million yuan [6][7]. - The company has been under financial scrutiny since it reported a negative net profit in 2024, triggering a warning from the Shanghai Stock Exchange [6][5]. - The company is taking measures to avoid delisting, including land compensation agreements that are expected to positively impact its financials in 2025 and 2026 [7][6]. Group 2: Business Structure and Growth Challenges - The company has seen a significant decline in its core mobile phone business, with revenues dropping from approximately 17.19 billion yuan in 2016 to just over 1 billion yuan in 2024 [11][12]. - As of 2024, the revenue breakdown shows that mobile phones and accessories accounted for 32.71% of total revenue, while smart devices and automotive electronics contributed 10.54% and 23.61%, respectively [9][10]. - The shift to an ODM (Original Design Manufacturer) model has resulted in lower profit margins and a lack of brand loyalty, contributing to the decline in mobile phone sales [12][13]. Group 3: Historical Context and Strategic Missteps - *ST Boda was once a leader in the mobile phone market, achieving sales of over 10 million units in the early 2000s, but failed to adapt to the rapid transition to smartphones, leading to significant losses [16][17]. - The company attempted to enter the smartphone market in 2012 but was unable to compete effectively against established brands like Apple and Samsung [17]. - Strategic decisions, such as not pursuing international markets aggressively, have been cited as missed opportunities that could have altered the company's trajectory [14][16].

Core Insights - The storage chip market is experiencing a "super cycle" driven by AI, leading to significant price increases and improved profitability for storage companies, while terminal manufacturers face pressure to raise prices or reduce specifications [1][2][3] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The storage market is emerging from a low point, entering a new upward cycle, with 52 storage-related companies in A-shares reporting positive earnings forecasts for 2025, including 25 companies with expected profit growth [2] - Storage price increases are the primary factor behind the improved performance of these companies, with some reporting profit growth exceeding 100% [2] - Market research indicates that storage prices are expected to rise by 40% to 50% in Q1 2026 and by approximately 20% in Q2 2026, surpassing historical highs [3] Group 2: Competitive Positioning - Storage manufacturers are ramping up production to meet the surging demand from AI applications, with significant increases in memory requirements for AI servers compared to standard servers [4][5] - Companies are shifting focus from consumer markets to enterprise-level markets, where customers prioritize stability and reliability over price, allowing for better profit margins [5] - Companies like Jiangbolong are enhancing their capabilities through partnerships and new product launches, including a 37 billion yuan fundraising plan to invest in core technology and production processes [5][6] Group 3: Challenges for Terminal Manufacturers - Terminal manufacturers are facing significant cost pressures due to rising prices of components, including CPUs and storage, leading to a projected 14.8% decrease in global laptop shipments in Q1 2026 [7][8] - Major brands like Lenovo and Dell have begun to raise prices on their products, with increases ranging from 10% to 30%, while some brands are even canceling low-end models due to cost pressures [8][9] - The financial impact of rising component costs is evident, with companies like Transsion Holdings reporting a 54.11% decline in net profit due to increased supply chain costs [9][10]

Core Viewpoint - The storage chip market is experiencing a "super cycle" driven by AI, leading to significant price increases and improved profitability for storage companies, while terminal manufacturers face pressure to raise prices or reduce specifications [1][3]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The storage market is emerging from a low point, with many companies reporting substantial profit increases due to stabilizing prices driven by AI demand [1]. - As of January 29, 2026, 52 storage-related companies in the A-share market have issued performance forecasts for 2025, with 25 companies expecting profit increases, and 31 companies reporting year-on-year net profit growth [1]. - Notably, 13 companies have projected net profit growth exceeding 100% [1]. Group 2: Company Performance - Companies like Bawei Storage and Jiangbolong are forecasting significant profit increases, with Bawei Storage projecting a net profit growth of 520.22% and Jiangbolong 210.82% [2]. - Jiangbolong attributes its turnaround to the recovery of storage prices and increased demand from AI servers, leading to a shift in supply dynamics [2]. - The storage price surge is expected to continue, with predictions of a 40% to 50% increase in Q1 2026 and an additional 20% in Q2 2026 [3]. Group 3: Competitive Positioning - Storage manufacturers are shifting focus from consumer markets to enterprise-level markets, such as data centers and AI servers, which offer higher profit margins due to lower price sensitivity [5]. - Companies are investing in technology and product development to enhance their competitive edge, with Jiangbolong planning to raise 3.7 billion yuan for technology development and production expansion [6]. - The urgency to secure market position is emphasized, as delays in strategic actions could result in missed opportunities during this lucrative period [7]. Group 4: Impact on Terminal Manufacturers - Terminal manufacturers are facing significant cost pressures due to rising prices of storage components, leading to a projected 14.8% decrease in global laptop shipments in Q1 2026 [8]. - Major brands like Lenovo and Dell have begun to raise prices on various product lines, with Lenovo increasing prices by 500 to 1500 yuan for mid-to-high-end models [8][9]. - The rising costs are impacting profit margins, with companies like Transsion Holdings reporting a 54.11% decline in net profit due to increased supply chain costs [9].

Core Viewpoint - Transsion Holdings, known as the "King of African Mobile Phones," is expected to see a significant decline in its 2025 performance due to rising storage product prices and supply chain costs, marking the first time since its 2019 IPO that the company will experience a "halving" of annual net profit [1][6] Financial Performance - The company anticipates a revenue of approximately 65.568 billion yuan for 2025, a decrease of about 3.147 billion yuan or 4.58% year-on-year [5][6] - The expected net profit for 2025 is around 2.546 billion yuan, down approximately 3.003 billion yuan or 54.11% compared to the previous year [5][6] - In 2024, Transsion achieved a revenue of 68.72 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 10.31%, and a net profit of 5.549 billion yuan, which is a slight increase of 0.22% [6] Market Position - As of the first half of 2025, Transsion holds a 12.5% share of the global mobile phone market, ranking third among global mobile phone manufacturers, with a 7.9% share in the global smartphone market, placing sixth [2][6] - The company ranked first in smartphone shipments in regions such as Africa, Pakistan, and Bangladesh in 2024 [2][6] Challenges and Strategic Responses - The decline in net profit for the first three quarters of 2025 was 44.97%, attributed to market competition and rising supply chain costs [3][7] - The company has increased its sales and R&D expenses to enhance brand image and maintain long-term competitiveness, despite the pressure on overall gross margins due to rising component costs [1][6] - Transsion plans to adjust its strategies in 2026 based on cost changes and market competition, focusing on emerging markets and expanding its product categories [4][8] Future Outlook - The company aims to deepen its presence in emerging markets, including Southeast Asia, Latin America, the Middle East, and Eastern Europe, while leveraging its strong position in the African mobile market [4][8] - The smartphone market is expected to enter a new phase dominated by both cost pressures and value creation, with a noticeable trend of market differentiation [4][8]

智通财经APP获悉，根据群智咨询数据，2025年全球智能手机出货量约为12.0亿部，同比增长1.0%；国内智能手机出货量约为2.8亿部，同比微降0.2%。总 量增长乏力的背后，是成本压力驱动的价格带分化、品牌格局重塑与竞争逻辑升级，智能手机行业正从"规模比拼"迈入"价值深耕"的新常态。智能手机行 业正处于发展变革关键期，存储价格高位运行引发的成本压力，推动行业加速产品结构与供应链策略的优化升级。 一、全球市场：全球市场微增、核心动力凸显 二、国内市场：头部争霸、中间承压 根据群智咨询数据，2025年国内智能手机出货量约2.8亿部，同比微降0.2%。 2025年，头部品牌推出的产品兼具高性价比优势，且配套力度可观的促销策略，多重优势下，其他手机品牌的发展陷入明显瓶颈：高端化转型受限于技术 积累不足与品牌溢价短板，中低端市场又因成本高企导致利润持续承压，最终拖累整体市场份额增长。 华为(Huawei)2025年国内智能手机出货量约 4690 万部，登顶国内市场出货量榜首。上半年，Pura 80 系列受纯血鸿蒙系统适配性不足掣肘，市场表现未达 预期；下半年，在行业主流品牌普遍上调产品售价的行业背景下，华为及时调整定 ...

Core Viewpoint - The semiconductor industry is experiencing significant changes due to explosive AI demand, which is reshaping the supply chain and production capacity, leading to increased pressure on traditional storage chip production and impacting the mobile phone industry, particularly affecting Transsion Holdings [1][9]. Company Summary - Transsion Holdings (688036) announced a forecast for 2025, expecting revenue of approximately 65.568 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 4.58%, and a net profit of about 2.546 billion yuan, down 54.11% year-on-year, marking the first significant decline in net profit since its market debut in 2019 [2][10]. - The company attributes this decline to supply chain cost fluctuations, particularly the significant rise in prices of core components like storage chips, which has adversely affected product costs and gross margins [2][10]. - Transsion focuses on overseas markets, particularly in Africa, South Asia, Southeast Asia, the Middle East, and Latin America, with its main revenue coming from basic feature phones and mid-range smartphones [2][10]. Industry Summary - The global storage chip market is entering a new cyclical upturn, with NAND Flash and DRAM prices rising, creating widespread cost pressures for mobile manufacturers [3][11]. - Counterpoint Research indicates that the storage market has entered a "super bull market," with prices expected to rise by 40%-50% in Q4 2025 and again in Q1 2026, maintaining a 20% increase in Q2 2026 [5][13]. - The rising storage costs are fundamentally altering the bill of materials (BoM) for hardware manufacturers, with storage costs in the iPhone 17 Pro Max exceeding 10% of the BoM, up from 8% in the iPhone 12 Pro Max [5][13]. - Omdia's report warns that supply pressures on DRAM and NAND are escalating, potentially compressing profit margins for manufacturers and forcing them to adjust prices, which could suppress consumer demand [6][14]. - UBS's global smartphone survey indicates that the rapid increase in memory prices will create asymmetric impacts on manufacturers, with mid-range smartphones seeing memory costs rise to 34% of the BoM by Q4 2026, necessitating a 17% price increase to offset costs [6][14].

Group 1: Performance Highlights - Nanwang Energy (600995.SH) expects net profit of 1.5-1.8 billion CNY, a year-on-year growth of 55%-85% driven by large-scale energy storage projects and favorable electricity pricing policies[4] - Transsion Holdings (688036.SH) anticipates net profit of 4.2-4.8 billion CNY, with a year-on-year increase of 75%-100% due to market share growth in emerging markets and product optimization[6] - Green Harmonic (688017.SH) forecasts net profit of 150-180 million CNY, reflecting an 80%-116% year-on-year growth driven by demand for humanoid robots and improved product margins[7] Group 2: Significant Losses - Qidi Environment (000826.SZ) projects a net loss of 2.8-3.5 billion CNY, with losses widening due to substantial investment losses and increasing receivables[40] - Meike Home (600337.SH) expects a net loss of 1.2-1.8 billion CNY, attributed to the downturn in the real estate sector and significant inventory write-downs[41] - Zhaopu Technology (300203.SZ) anticipates a net loss of 200-250 million CNY, facing potential delisting risks due to declining revenue and significant asset impairments[49] Group 3: Industry Trends - The report identifies three core drivers of market performance: technological breakthroughs, cost control, and price cycles[65] - The lithium battery supply chain shows signs of stabilization, with leading companies like Tianqi Lithium (002466.SZ) and Enjie (002812.SZ) returning to profitability, indicating a recovery phase[69] - The automotive sector exhibits a trend where upstream components outperform downstream integrators, highlighting the competitive landscape in the electric vehicle market[68]

如果您希望可以时常见面，欢迎标星收藏哦~ 当前科技行业供应链，尤其是消费电子领域，正面临存储芯片及各类原材料供应短缺的压力。日 经亚洲此前报道，小米、OPPO、vivo 和传音等多家中国智能手机厂商已下调了今年的出货预 期。 尽管苹果是全球最大的采购商之一，但也在应对潜在的供应限制问题。其部分现有供应商已将资 源和重心转向服务英伟达、谷歌、亚马逊等快速扩张的人工智能领域头部企业。在本周四的财报 电话会议上，苹果公司警告称，iPhone 正面临供应限制，这一问题已对今年 1 至 3 月的季度业 绩造成影响。日经亚洲此前还报道，由于人工智能服务器系统消耗了全球大部分高端芯片基板用 玻纤布，苹果也在为这类材料的供应问题担忧。 这家 iPhone 制造商即将在其位于加州库比蒂诺的总部召开年度供应商大会。一位所在企业获邀 参会的消息人士透露，本次大会规模有所扩大，纳入了更多零部件厂商和原材料供应商，目的是 确保今年供应链的稳定性。 据日经亚洲报道，受营销策略调整及供应链紧张影响，苹果公司正优先保障 2026 年三款高端新 iPhone 机型的生产与出货，同时推迟标准版机型的上市时间。 四位知情人士透露，这家美国科技巨头 ...