来源：智通财经 智通财经记者 | 刘婷 北京时间周四凌晨，美联储联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）宣布将联邦基金利率目标区间维持在 3.50%-3.75%不变，这是去年9月以来美联储首次按下"降息"暂停键。 美国官方数据显示，2025年第三季度，美国GDP环比折年率为4.3%，较二季度的3.8%进一步提升。12 月，失业率环比下降0.1个百分点至4.4%，当月消费者价格指数（CPI）同比上涨2.7%，和前值持平。 凯投宏观北美地区副首席经济学家斯蒂芬·布朗对智通财经表示，和12月的政策声明相比，本次政策声 明对经济增长的描述从"温和"改为"稳步"，并特别指出失业率已"显现出一些企稳迹象"。"最新的政策 声明承认GDP的稳健增长和失业率的稳定，这进一步证实美联储至少在未来几次会议上不太可能再次降 息。"布朗说。 东方金诚研究发展部高级副总监白雪对智通财经表示，美联储对当前经济形势更加乐观，这与近期经 济、就业数据走势相印证，是本次会议暂停降息的主要原因。经过去年9-12月连续三次"预防式"降息 后，美联储需要时间来评估前期降息的政策效果，尤其是通胀走势。 FOMC在政策声明中称，现有指标显示，经济活动在稳步扩张，就 ...

Core Viewpoint - International gold prices are experiencing a significant surge, with spot gold rising over $230 to exceed $5400 per ounce, marking a daily increase of approximately 4.6%, the largest single-day gain recorded [1] Group 1: Gold Price Dynamics - As of January 29, gold prices continued to rise, approaching $5600 before retracting slightly, currently trading above $5500 per ounce [1] - The current bull market for gold has persisted for over two years since breaking the $2000 mark at the beginning of 2024, with the recent acceleration in prices being unusual [1] Group 2: Economic and Geopolitical Influences - The chief economist at Huaxi Securities, Liu Yu, attributes the heightened volatility in gold prices to a dual logic: structural shocks to the US dollar's credibility and rising geopolitical tensions [2] - Concerns over potential policy interventions were sparked by the US President's comments regarding the dollar's volatility, leading to the dollar index falling below 95.5, a new low since February 2022 [2] - Escalating risk aversion is driven by the US President's threats of military action against Iran, which has intensified the situation in the Middle East, further supporting gold prices [2] Group 3: Federal Reserve and Economic Indicators - The Federal Reserve maintained interest rates between 3.5% and 3.75%, aligning with market expectations, while indicating a potential for three consecutive rate cuts of 25 basis points in 2025 [2] - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) noted that while the US unemployment rate is stabilizing and the economy is expanding, job growth remains slow, and inflation is still at elevated levels [2]

晨会纪要（R3） 晨会纪要 2026 年 01 月 29 日 | 市场数据 | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 指数名称 | 收盘 | 涨跌% | | 上证指数 | 4151.24 | 0.27 | | 深证成指 | 14342.89 | 0.09 | | 创业板指 | 3323.56 | -0.57 | | 科创 50 | 1554.80 | -0.08 | | 北证 50 | 1562.45 | -0.16 | | 沪深 300 | 4717.99 | 0.26 | 上证指数-沪深 300 走势图 -6% 4% 14% 24% 34% 2025-01 2025-04 2025-07 2025-10 2026-01 上证指数 沪深300 | 黄红卫 | 分析师 | | --- | --- | | 执业证书编号:S0530519010001 | | | huanghongwei@hnchasing.com | | | 周舒鹏 | 研究助理 | zhoushupeng@hnchasing.com 晨会聚焦 | 一、财信研究观点 | | | --- | --- | | 【市场策略】市场延续结构 ...

周三（1月28日）纽约尾盘，现货黄金涨4.53%，刷新历史高位至5415美元/盎司上方，亚太盘初至北京 时间16:00持续走高，至美联储主席鲍威尔讲话期间大体上持稳于5250-5300美元这样的区间，03:08以 来"加速"上涨。 COMEX黄金期货涨5.83%，报5378.80美元/盎司，05:06（电子交易盘）刷新历史高位 至5391.30美元，延续最近数日不断创历史新高的趋势。 黄金采矿公司业绩集体报喜 进入2026年后，贵金属继续走强。 国际金价一骑绝尘，目前现货黄金已经冲上5200美元/盎司，年度涨 幅达到21%，黄金在年线上已经连续四年上涨，累计涨幅达到186%，可谓遇到超级周期，这也让采矿 公司赚得盆满钵满。 金价持续走高，黄金主题ETF再增五百亿级产品。博时黄金ETF规模已突破500亿元，达514.19亿元，较 去年底增长27.54%，拉长时间看，该基金从去年初以来规模增超2倍。截至目前，市面上7只黄金主题 ETF的合计规模年内已涨超500亿元，达到2808.1亿元，规模最大的华安黄金ETF最新规模达到1193.07 亿元。 1月27日晚间，易方达黄金主题LOF发布公告称，易方达基金决定自1月 ...

纵观2025年，证券行业在波动的市场中绘就了一幅"大象起舞，黑马奔袭"图景：头部券商凭借全业务链 优势稳健领跑，中小券商则依靠差异化战略突围而出。业内人士认为，高活跃度的市场环境为券商业绩 增长提供了肥沃土壤，业务结构的优化与转型则铸就持续增长的内核。 超九成实现净利润增长 业绩增长成为券商2025年的核心主题。截至1月28日，共有21家券商披露2025年度业绩预告或快报，预 计合计实现净利润约1075.87亿元，同比增长近60%。其中，19家券商实现净利润增长，12家券商净利 润增长超50%，5家券商净利润增长超1倍。 从净利润增幅来看，合并后的国联民生证券2025年实现净利润20.08亿元，以同比超4倍的增幅居首位。 国联民生证券表示，公司探索科技、金融与产业的深度融合，以"协同赋能"和"内生增长"为主线提升综 合金融服务能力，证券投资、经纪及财富管理等业务条线实现显著增长。 湘财证券、麦高证券、华西证券及国泰海通证券紧随其后，构成了业绩倍增"阵营"。其中，华西证券把 握市场机遇，推动财富管理业务和投资业务均实现较高增长，预计实现净利润12.70亿元至16.50亿元， 同比增长74.76%至126.66% ...

Core Viewpoint - Pop Mart is planning to expand its physical presence in North America by entering outlet malls and large shopping centers, which deviates from its previously disclosed expansion strategy and market expectations [1][2]. Group 1: Expansion Strategy - Pop Mart is engaging with Simon Property Group to establish new stores in over 20 shopping centers across the U.S., including Simon Malls and The Mills [2][3]. - The new stores will not be discount outlets but standard retail formats, indicating a strategic approach to enhance brand presence rather than merely clearing inventory [2]. Group 2: Market Performance - Pop Mart's stock price has dropped over 40% from its peak in August 2025, leading to mixed market sentiments regarding the sustainability of its growth trajectory [1]. - Despite the stock decline, the company has maintained strong revenue growth, with significant increases in various regions, including a 1142.3% increase in the Americas [5]. Group 3: Competitive Landscape - The collectible toy industry is experiencing intensified competition, with other brands like Miniso's Top Toy and 52Toys rapidly expanding their physical presence, increasing rental and customer acquisition costs [4]. - Pop Mart's market performance in North America has shown signs of slowing growth, with a notable decrease in sales growth rates for its LABUBU products [4]. Group 4: Financial Actions - On January 19, Pop Mart announced a share buyback of approximately HKD 251 million, which led to a 20% increase in stock price over the following week [1][5]. - The company has a history of share buybacks during market downturns, indicating management's confidence in its intrinsic value [5].

21世纪经济报道记者 孙永乐 正值A股年报预告披露期，一批上市券商密集"交卷"报喜。 1月28日下午，长城证券（002939.SZ）发布业绩预告，公司预计2025年1-12月业绩大幅上升，归母净利润为22.91亿至24.49亿元，净利润同比增长45.00%至 55.00%，预计基本每股收益为0.57至0.61元。 就在前一晚，国泰海通（601211.SH）、申万宏源（000166.SZ）、东方证券（600958.SH）、招商证券（600999.SH）、华西证券（002926.SZ）、红塔证券 （601236.SH），6家券商同步发布了2025年业绩预告或快报，全年归母净利润分别同比增长111%—115%、74.64%—93.83%、67.80%、18.43%、74.46%— 126.66%、59.05%。 同花顺iFinD数据显示，截至1月28日18时，A股已有13家上市券商披露2025年度业绩预告或快报，业绩集体实现高增，3家净利润同比增长10%—50%，7家 净利润同比增长50%—100%，3家净利润同比增长超过100%。 | | | | A股券商2025年业绩预告/快报一览 | | | | | --- ...

同花顺iFinD数据显示，截至1月28日18时，A股已有13家上市券商披露2025年度业绩预告或快报，业绩 集体实现高增，3家净利润同比增长10%—50%，7家净利润同比增长50%—100%，3家净利润同比增长 超过100%。 （文章来源：21世纪经济报道） 1月28日下午，长城证券（002939.SZ）发布全年业绩预告，公司预计2025年1-12月业绩大幅上升，归母 净利润为22.91亿至24.49亿，净利润同比增长45.00%至55.00%，预计基本每股收益为0.57至0.61元。 就在前一晚，国泰海通（601211.SH）、申万宏源（000166.SZ）、东方证券（600958.SH）、招商证券 （600999.SH）、华西证券（002926.SZ）、红塔证券（601236.SH），这6家券商同步发布了2025年业绩 预告或快报，全年归母净利润分别同比增长111%—115%、74.64%—93.83%、67.80%、18.43%、74.46% —126.66%、59.05%。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The market is maintaining a slow bull trend, focusing on three main allocation lines, with a strong performance in small-cap growth stocks and an acceleration in sector rotation as the annual report forecast period approaches [2][8]. Market Overview - The total trading volume in the market reached 2.97 trillion yuan, an increase of 704 billion yuan compared to the previous day [7]. - The number of stocks that rose was 1,739, while 3,640 stocks were traded overall [7]. ETF Products - Huabao Fund has launched three major broad-based ETFs, providing investors with diverse options to invest in China [9]. - The A50 ETF tracks the CSI A50 Index, focusing on 50 core leading companies [10]. - The A100 ETF tracks the CSI A100 Index, encompassing the top 100 industry leaders [11]. - The A500 ETF tracks the CSI A500 Index, targeting the top 500 companies in the A-share market [13]. Institutional Insights - Huaxi Securities maintains that the market's slow bull trend remains unchanged, emphasizing the importance of focusing on sectors with high growth potential as annual reports are disclosed [2][8]. - The current market environment is characterized by effective control of trading rhythm due to recent counter-cyclical measures, with a slight decline in net outflows from major broad-based ETFs and financing balances [2][8].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the strategic expansion of Huatu Shanding in response to the trends of returning to hometowns and diversification in the civil service exam training market [1] - Huatu Shanding has introduced a new class type called "Direct Train Class" that breaks the boundaries of exams and is based on subject types, leveraging rental and scale advantages for stronger profitability [1] - It is projected that by Q1 2026, the number of Direct Train Base Classes will exceed 70, with a potential growth to around 320 classes in the next three years, corresponding to an estimated profit of approximately 1 billion yuan [1] Group 2 - The company's expected operating revenue for 2025, 2026, and 2027 is forecasted to be 3.313 billion, 3.94 billion, and 4.676 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 17%, 19%, and 19% [1] - The projected net profit attributable to the parent company for the same years is estimated to be 324 million, 400 million, and 596 million yuan, reflecting significant growth rates of 512%, 23%, and 49% respectively [1] - The report initiates coverage of the company with a "Buy" rating, indicating a positive outlook on its future performance [1]