证券研究报告 | 2025年12月23日 2025年12月27日 2025年12月28日 优于大市 牧业跟踪点评 商务部对欧盟进口乳制品实施临时反补贴措施，有望提振国产 原奶替代需求 |  | 行业研究·行业快评 | |  农林牧渔 |  投资评级：优于大市（维持） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 证券分析师： | 鲁家瑞 | 021-61761016 | lujiarui@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980520110002 | | 证券分析师： | 李瑞楠 | 021-60893308 | liruinan@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980523030001 | | 证券分析师： | 江海航 | | jianghaihang@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980524070003 | 事项： 商务部于 2025 年 12 月 22 日发布初裁公告，自 2025 年 12 月 23 日起，采取临时反补贴税保证金的形式对 原产于欧盟的进口相关乳制品实施临时反补贴措施。 国信农业观点：1)商务部公布欧盟进口乳制品 ...

证券研究报告：食品饮料|点评报告 发布时间：2025-12-25 行业投资评级 强于大市|维持 | 行业基本情况 | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 收盘点位 | | 16521.46 | | 52 | 周最高 | 18638.17 | | 52 | 周最低 | 16379.5 | 行业相对指数表现（相对值） -10% -7% -4% -1% 2% 5% 8% 11% 14% 17% 2024-12 2025-03 2025-05 2025-07 2025-10 2025-12 食品饮料 沪深300 ⚫ 投资要点 资料来源：聚源，中邮证券研究所 研究所 分析师:蔡雪昱 SAC 登记编号:S1340522070001 Email:caixueyu@cnpsec.com 分析师:杨逸文 SAC 登记编号:S1340522120002 Email:yangyiwen@cnpsec.com 分析师:张子健 SAC 登记编号:S1340524050001 Email:zhangzijian@cnpsec.com 近期研究报告 《政策利好叠加周期拐点预期，乳制品 板块表现强势》 - 2025.12.2 ...

证券研究报告 2025 年 12 月 25 日 湘财证券研究所 行业研究 食品饮料行业点评 深加工是中国乳业的发展方向 ——对欧盟乳制品征收反补贴政策点评 相关研究： | 1.《品类创新扬帆，穿越液奶周期 | | | --- | --- | | ——伊利股份2026年经销商大会 | | | 点评》 | 2025.12.19 | | 2.《妙可蓝多：品牌破圈，国产替 | | | 代加速》 | 2025.11.28 | | 3.《板块情绪回暖，估值极具性价 | | | 比》 | 2025.11.24 | 行业评级：买入（维持） 近十二个月行业表现 % 1 个月 3 个月 12 个月 | 相对收益 | -3.8% | 0.3% | -22.9% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 绝对收益 | 4.4% | 1.4% | -13.7% | | | | 注：相对收益与沪深 300 相比 | | 分析师：张弛 证书编号：S0500525110001 Tel：17621838100 Email：zc08241@xcsc.com 地址：上海市浦东新区银城路88号 中国人寿金融中心10楼 ❑ 首先利好 ...

Macro and Strategy - The report discusses the asset allocation strategy in a low-interest-rate environment, emphasizing the need to balance yield chasing and safety due to long-term low interest rates and limited supply of safe assets [5] - It highlights the importance of understanding asset characteristics quantitatively to identify quality assets, suggesting a strategy of "long cycle direction, mid-cycle selection, and short cycle entry points" [5] Industry and Company Electronics Industry - The electronics sector is experiencing continued inflation in upstream components, with a recommendation to focus on storage and computing power as performance forecasts are released [6] - The report notes a recent decline in the electronics sector, with a 3.28% drop in the past week, attributed to reduced government subsidies and supply chain issues [6] - Micron's recent performance exceeded expectations, with a revenue increase of 21% quarter-over-quarter and 55% year-over-year, indicating strong growth potential in the storage industry [6] Agriculture Industry - The report indicates a significant upward trend in beef prices, with an increase of 16% from the year's low, while fresh milk prices have decreased by approximately 3% [12][13] - It suggests that the beef market is entering a cycle of recovery, with a projected supply shortage expected to last until 2028 due to reduced production capacity [13] - The dairy market is at a low point but is expected to improve in 2026, with signs of supply reversal emerging [13] Semiconductor Equipment - Global semiconductor equipment sales are projected to grow by 13.7% in 2025, with NAND equipment expected to see a significant increase of 45.4% [8] - The report emphasizes the ongoing investment in advanced logic, storage, and packaging equipment driven by AI-related demand [8] Automotive Industry - The report notes that China has approved its first L3 autonomous driving models, marking a significant step towards commercialization in the automotive sector [10] - It recommends focusing on automotive electronics companies that are likely to benefit from this trend [10] Investment Recommendations - The report lists key investment opportunities across various sectors, including consumer electronics, semiconductors, and agricultural stocks, highlighting companies like Industrial Fulian, Lixun Precision, and Ulan Dairy as potential beneficiaries of market trends [11][13]

Market Overview - Hong Kong stocks rose by 0.17% on Christmas Eve, while A-shares showed strong performance as funds remained cautious ahead of the holiday [1] - The U.S. GDP for Q3 grew at an annualized rate of 4.3%, exceeding expectations and marking the fastest growth since Q3 2023, driven by strong consumer spending and a rebound in exports [1] - The U.S. plans to impose tariffs on semiconductor products imported from China, effective June 2027, as a response to China's ambitions in the chip industry [1] Semiconductor Industry - Semiconductor companies, including SMIC, have announced price increases of around 10% for 8-inch BCD process platforms due to high demand for power chips in AI servers [2] - TSMC is consolidating its 8-inch capacity and plans to shut down some production lines by the end of 2027, contributing to price increase expectations [2] - Companies like Samsung and SK Hynix have raised HBM3E prices by nearly 20% due to increased orders from major tech firms [3] Rare Resources and Nickel Market - The Indonesian Nickel Mining Association reported a significant reduction in nickel production targets for 2026, aiming to prevent further price declines, which has led to a rise in nickel-related stocks [3] - Companies such as LDK Resources and Xinjiang Xinjin Mining saw stock increases of nearly 9% following the news of reduced production targets [3] Dairy Industry - Domestic dairy processing capacity is expanding as imported dairy product price advantages diminish, benefiting upstream dairy farms [4] - Companies like Yurun Agriculture and Modern Dairy experienced stock increases of nearly 7% due to this trend [4] Robotics and Automation - Cloud Deep Technology has submitted an IPO application and holds a significant market share in the quadruped robot sector [5] - SUTENG announced advancements in robotic technology, showcasing capabilities in high-precision visual perception and flexible mechanical arm control [5] Currency and Paper Industry - The offshore RMB reached a high of 7.0129 against the USD, enhancing purchasing power for raw materials in the paper industry [7] - Companies like Nine Dragons Paper and Lee & Man Paper are expected to benefit from reduced procurement costs due to the strengthened RMB [7] Company Highlights - Tiangong International has achieved significant breakthroughs in high-end materials, positioning itself as a leader in the global tool steel market [8] - The company is focusing on import substitution in high-end materials, which is expected to drive future revenue growth [8] - The company is also advancing in high-nitrogen steel for humanoid robots, collaborating with domestic firms to enhance its product offerings [9]

Core Viewpoint - The Ministry of Commerce has announced a preliminary ruling on anti-subsidy investigations against EU dairy imports, implementing temporary anti-subsidy deposit measures starting December 23, 2025, which could accelerate domestic dairy product processing and promote local alternatives [1][2]. Group 1: Anti-subsidy Measures - The Ministry of Commerce decided to impose temporary anti-subsidy tax deposits on EU dairy products, with rates ranging from 21.9% to 42.7%, generally close to 30% [1]. - The investigation found that EU dairy products have received subsidies that harm the domestic dairy industry [1]. Group 2: Impact on Domestic Market - The anti-subsidy tax is expected to increase import prices, thereby accelerating the shift towards domestic dairy product processing [2]. - The current domestic milk prices are lower than international prices, which may further enhance the competitiveness of local products [2]. Group 3: Demand and Supply Dynamics - The deep processing of dairy products is anticipated to increase the consumption of raw milk, improving the supply-demand balance in the upstream raw milk industry [3]. - Domestic milk prices have stabilized since August, driven by supply adjustments from social pastures and increased demand from expanding consumption scenarios such as milk tea [3]. Group 4: Investment Opportunities - Companies benefiting from the deep processing business include Miaokelando (600882.SH), Yili (600887.SH), Mengniu Dairy (02319), and Lihigh Food (300973.SZ) [4]. - Upstream livestock companies that may benefit include Youran Dairy (09858), Modern Dairy (01117), and China Shengmu (01432) [4].

Core Viewpoint - The Ministry of Commerce has announced a countervailing policy against EU imported dairy products, specifically targeting cheese and high-fat cream, which are core categories in deep processing of dairy products. This policy is set to enhance the price advantage of domestic manufacturers and is expected to have a rapid market impact [1][2][3]. Summary by Sections Policy Announcement - The Ministry of Commerce has issued a preliminary ruling on countervailing investigations against EU dairy imports, confirming that these products are subsidized and have caused substantial harm to the domestic industry. Starting December 23, 2025, temporary countervailing measures will be implemented, requiring importers to provide a deposit of 21.9% to 42.7% based on the value of the goods [2]. Characteristics of the Policy - The ruling specifically targets cheese and high-fat cream, which are heavily reliant on imports, with over 50% of high-fat cream being imported. The measures impose a significant cost increase on EU products, with an average subsidy rate close to 30%. The policy takes effect immediately, demonstrating the government's commitment to market stability [3]. Market Impact - The countervailing policy is expected to accelerate domestic substitution in the deep processing sector, potentially freeing up a market space of 20 billion for cream and 14 billion for cheese. Historically, China's dairy processing industry has been heavily reliant on imports due to high raw milk costs and immature technology, with domestic products only accounting for 14%-18% of the market in 2023. The policy is anticipated to enhance the price advantage of domestic manufacturers, particularly benefiting those in high-fat cream production [4]. Investment Opportunities - The report suggests three categories of investment opportunities: - Domestic substitution beneficiaries: Recommended stocks include Lihigh Foods (300973.SZ) and Miaokelando (600882.SH), with Lihigh being the largest domestic cream producer and poised to benefit from price increases in imported brands [5]. - Dairy price reversal benefiting upstream farms: Companies like Youran Dairy (09858) and Modern Dairy (01117) are highlighted, as they are expected to show resilience and potential profit recovery with the reversal of raw milk prices [5]. - Strengthening competitiveness of leading dairy companies: Recommendations include Yili (600887.SH) and Mengniu Dairy (02319), which are expected to benefit from stabilized milk prices and accelerated deep processing business, enhancing their long-term growth potential [5].

China Modern Dairy Holdings Ltd. 中國現代牧業控股有限公司 （於開曼群島註冊成立之有限公司） (Incorporated in the Cayman Islands with limited liability) (Stock Code 股份代號: 1117) Dear non-registered shareholder(s)(Note) , 24 December 2025 China Modern Dairy Holdings Ltd. (the "Company") - Extraordinary General Meeting ("EGM") of the Company to be held on Friday, 16 January 2026 The EGM of the Company will be held virtually using online platform at https://meetings.computershare.com/CMD_EGM2025 (the "Online Platform") at 10:00 a.m. on Frid ...

China Modern Dairy Holdings Ltd. 中國現代牧業控股有限公司 （於開曼群島註冊成立之有限公司） (Incorporated in the Cayman Islands with limited liability) (Stock Code 股份代號: 1117) Dear registered shareholder(s), 各位登記股東： 24 December 2025 China Modern Dairy Holdings Ltd. (the "Company") - Extraordinary General Meeting ("EGM") of the Company to be held on Friday, 16 January 2026 The EGM of the Company will be held virtually using online platform at https://meetings.computershare.com/CMD_EGM2025 (the "Online Platform") at 10:00 a.m. on Friday, ...

China Modern Dairy Holdings Ltd. 中國現代牧業控股有限公司 （於開曼群島註冊成立之有限公司） (Incorporated in the Cayman Islands with limited liability (Stock Code 股份代號: 1117) Dear non-registered shareholder(s), China Modern Dairy Holdings Ltd. (the "Company") – Notice of Availability - Notice of publication of Circular containing Notice of Extraordinary General Meeting (the "Current Corporate Communication") The English and Chinese versions of the Company's Current Corporate Communication are now available on the Company's website at w ...