会议助理: 大家好，欢迎大家参加 AI 加通胀系列 MLCC 专家交，线上会议。目前所有参会人员均处 于经营状态，下面有请主讲老师开始发言，谢谢。 王心怡 华泰证券电子分析师: 那各位线上投资人，大家晚上好。欢迎大家来参加我们这个 AI 加通胀系列的 MACC 专场 的专家交流。我是华泰电子研究员王欣怡。那在会议开始前，其实我们也再重申一下对于 整个 MLC C 最新看到的一些变化吧。就确实是在春节期间，观测到包含村田和三星电机 在内的一些日韩大厂对于涨价的这个事情的口风，确实是发生了一些扭转然后另外就是渠 道现货价也在春节期间迎来了一些继续的上涨。那这个从海外的这些催化来看的话，其实 是进一步加深了大家对于台系，包括大陆的公司后续跟涨的一个预期的。 然后另外一个层面就是从这个 AI 相关，包含 AI 在内的吧，这些高端需求来看，确实是今 年全年还是非常的旺盛。那这个对于非 AI 的高容，以及说一些中低端产能的挤占，可能 也是短期大家比较关心的事情。所以我们今天也是特别邀请到了台系的被动元件大厂的资 深专家，然后来给我们做这样一个专场分享。专家您好，请问能听到吗？ 台系被动元件大厂资深专家: 能听到，很清楚。 ...

来源：新华社 重卡穿行、桩机忙碌……今年以来，渤海湾畔的国家级新区——天津滨海新区铆足干劲开新局，面向智能科技、生物医药、新能源等优势产 业，以项目作为支撑高质量发展的"压舱石"，前进步伐愈发稳健。 重点项目是产业发展的"生命线"。天津芯擎科技有限公司2025年9月在滨海新区下辖中新天津生态城投资2.9亿元，建设光电产业基地。如今， 项目建设即将进入主体施工阶段，计划今年10月前竣工。 公司副总经理张英杰说，春节假期前，生态城人社部门就主动对接，计划利用春季校园招聘帮企业储备专业技术人才。同时，生态城管委会开 年开足马力，对接金融机构，为企业量身定制不同融资方案，护航项目早日落地见效。 从最早一家企业的区域深耕，到一个智慧园区的整体赋能；从单一业务布局，到覆盖研发、服务器创新、人工智能全要素产业集群，联想扎根 滨海新区的背后，是滨海新区产业生态与区位优势的集中体现。 工作人员在联想天津零碳智造工厂笔记本生产线进行作业。新华社记者赵子硕 摄 2026年是滨海新区开发开放上升为国家战略20周年。春节前后，这里的重点项目进展好消息不断。投资金额超11亿元的长城汽车股份有限公司 新建曼德热系统及光电项目通过竣工验收， ...

丨证券研究报告丨 [Table_scodeMsg2] 联想集团（00992.HK） cjzqdt11111 [Table_scodeMsg1] 港股研究丨公司点评丨联想集团（00992.HK） [Table_Title] 龙头穿越周期，多项业务创历史新高 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 联想 FY2026Q3（对应日历年 2025Q4，下同）实现营收 222.04 亿美元，同比增长 18%；毛 利率 15.1%，同比下降 0.6pct；归母净利润 5.46 亿美元，同比下降 21%，主因一次性重组费 用、认股权证的非现金公允价值收益等非现金项目的影响；经调整净利润 5.89 亿美元，同比增 长 36%。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 杨洋 SAC：S0490517070012 SFC：BUW100 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 [Table_Title2] 龙头穿越周期，多项业务创历史新高 [Table_Summary2] 事件描述 联想 FY2026Q3（对应日历年 2025Q4，下同）实现营收 222.04 亿美元 ...

Group 1 - Anta Sports-R (82020), JD Health-R (86618), and Geely Automobile-R (80175) have the highest short-selling ratios at 100.00%, 100.00%, and 95.46% respectively [1] - Tencent Holdings (00700), Alibaba-W (09988), and Meituan-W (03690) lead in short-selling amounts, with 2.193 billion, 1.867 billion, and 1.658 billion respectively [1] - Geely Automobile-R (80175), Tencent Holdings-R (80700), and Blue Moon Group (06993) have the highest deviation values at 56.09%, 35.57%, and 33.29% respectively [1] Group 2 - The top short-selling ratio rankings show Anta Sports-R (82020) at 100.00% with a short-selling amount of 29.79 thousand, followed by JD Health-R (86618) at 100.00% with 9.88 thousand, and Geely Automobile-R (80175) at 95.46% with 31.09 thousand [2] - The top short-selling amounts are led by Tencent Holdings (00700) at 2.193 billion, Alibaba-W (09988) at 1.867 billion, and Meituan-W (03690) at 1.658 billion [2] - The highest short-selling deviation values are led by Geely Automobile-R (80175) at 56.09%, followed by Tencent Holdings-R (80700) at 35.57%, and Blue Moon Group (06993) at 33.29% [2]

Core Viewpoint - Nvidia's N1X chip, designed for the consumer market, is expected to officially launch in 2026 after delays due to chip vulnerabilities and software issues, originally planned for 2025 [1][5]. Group 1: Product Details - The N1X chip is an optimized consumer version based on the Blackwell architecture chip used in DGX Spark servers, aimed at delivering enhanced performance for consumer devices [1][5]. - The N1X chip has previously appeared in benchmarking tests such as Geekbench and FurMark [5]. Group 2: Market Launch and OEM Partnerships - Laptops featuring the N1X chip are anticipated to debut in the second quarter of 2026, with Dell and Lenovo confirmed as the first OEM partners [4][7]. - Alienware gaming laptops and Lenovo's Legion series will be among the first to incorporate the N1X and another chip, N1V, which has also been leaked but lacks detailed specifications [4][7].

Group 1: Macroeconomic Insights - In 2023, the market discussed a peak of 16 trillion yuan in "excess savings," with approximately 76-77 trillion yuan of residential time deposits maturing in 2026, indicating a historical peak[5] - The maturing deposits in the first quarter of 2026 are expected to reach 32-34 trillion yuan, highlighting a significant seasonal pattern[6] - The actual pressure from maturing deposits is limited, with a year-on-year increase of 9.6-10.8 trillion yuan in 2026, corresponding to a growth rate of 14.4%-16.3%, which is lower than the 17.7% growth rate in 2025[6] Group 2: Interest Rate and Asset Allocation - Approximately 25 trillion yuan of high-interest deposits are set to mature, with 32% of the total maturing deposits being two years or older, indicating a core pressure for renewal[6] - The renewal rate for deposits in 2025 remained close to 90%, suggesting that low interest rates do not automatically trigger a shift in risk appetite among residents[7] - The anticipated migration of deposits to other assets is expected to occur slowly and in a dispersed manner, with a potential 10% outflow rate from the 77 trillion yuan in time deposits being a marginal pricing variable for equity and bond markets[7] Group 3: Trade and Tariff Impacts - As of November 2025, the effective tariff rate in the U.S. reached 9.8%, the highest since 1946, with China facing the highest actual tariff rate of 30.9%[9] - The actual tariff increases have significantly impacted trade dynamics, with China and India experiencing the largest increases in effective tariffs compared to 2024, at 20.2 and 17.3 percentage points respectively[10] - Despite tariff pressures, China's export position remains robust, maintaining the largest share of global exports, while the U.S. has shifted its import structure towards North America and Europe[11] Group 4: Economic Recovery and Consumer Behavior - The Chinese economy is shifting focus towards domestic demand as a long-term strategy, with consumer spending projected to account for 56.6% of GDP by 2024, still below developed economies[39] - Consumer confidence is stabilizing, with improvements in disposable income growth and a reduction in the crowding-out effect of precautionary savings on consumption[40] - The recovery in domestic demand is supported by a reasonable rise in prices, which is expected to stimulate consumption and improve corporate profitability[40]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that Lenovo Group is expected to see adjusted net profit growth of 25.1%, 12.3%, and 11.3% for FY25/26 to FY27/28, reaching $1.8 billion, $2.03 billion, and $2.25 billion respectively, with a corresponding PE of 8.2, 7.3, and 6.5, maintaining a "Buy" rating [1] Group 2 - The company's revenue increased by 18.1% year-on-year to $22.2 billion, exceeding institutional expectations by 7%, with a gross margin of 15.1%, slightly below expectations by 0.31 percentage points [2] - Adjusted net profit grew by 37.1% year-on-year to $590 million, surpassing institutional expectations by 27.2% [2] Group 3 - AIPC segment reported revenue of $15.76 billion, exceeding expectations by 5.3%, with a year-on-year growth of 14.3% and a quarter-on-quarter growth of 4.3%, achieving an operating margin of 7.3%, which is above expectations by 0.16 percentage points [2] - Motorola's smartphone business achieved record highs in both sales and activations [2] Group 4 - ISG segment generated revenue of $5.18 billion, exceeding expectations by 15%, with a year-on-year growth of 31.4% and a quarter-on-quarter growth of 26.6%, driven by strong demand for AI server business, with a project reserve of $15.5 billion [2] Group 5 - SSG segment achieved revenue of $2.65 billion, exceeding expectations by 3.6%, with a year-on-year growth of 17.5% and an operating margin of 22.5%, above expectations by 0.6 percentage points, driven by accelerated growth in TruScale and infrastructure services [3]

Core Viewpoint - The report from Caitong Securities projects Lenovo Group's adjusted net profit growth of 25.1%, 12.3%, and 11.3% for FY25/26 to FY27/28, reaching $1.8 billion, $2.03 billion, and $2.25 billion respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 8.2, 7.3, and 6.5, maintaining a "Buy" rating [1] Group 1 - Company revenue increased by 18.1% to $22.2 billion, exceeding institutional expectations by 7%, with a gross margin of 15.1%, slightly below expectations by 0.31 percentage points [2] - Adjusted net profit rose by 37.1% to $590 million, surpassing institutional expectations by 27.2% [2] - AIPC segment reported revenue of $15.76 billion, exceeding expectations by 5.3%, with a year-on-year growth of 14.3% and a quarter-on-quarter growth of 4.3% [2] Group 2 - ISG segment achieved revenue of $5.18 billion, exceeding expectations by 15%, with a year-on-year growth of 31.4% and a quarter-on-quarter growth of 26.6%, supported by strong AI server business growth [2] - SSG segment reported revenue of $2.65 billion, exceeding expectations by 3.6%, with a year-on-year growth of 17.5% and an operating margin of 22.5%, which is 0.6 percentage points above expectations [3] - TruScale and infrastructure as a service segments are experiencing accelerated growth, contributing to the overall revenue increase [3]

报道称，这一系列动作已引起部分北美合作伙伴的不满。一位不愿具名的联想顶级合作伙伴公司的CEO 表示，这封信给了供应商一个涨价的"借口"："他们实际上是在说，'我们会接你的订单，但如果我们不 能及时发货，就要重新定价。'这给了他们一个逃避责任的办法。"不过，这位CEO也对OEM厂商的处境 表示"理解"。 这一消息已得到联想方面的证实。联想北美区总裁瑞安.麦考迪(Ryan McCurdy)在接受CRN采访时表 示："我们不得不且将继续调整条款，这是无法回避的。我们已经制定了一些非常明确的政策，规定了 本季度将如何接收订单、如何定价以及如何履行交付时间表。" 和很多厂商一样，联想的成本压力源于全行业内存的短缺与涨价。科技媒体TechRadar去年已爆料称， 包括戴尔、联想、惠普和HPE在内的主要OEM厂商将大幅提价，预计服务器成本将上涨约15%，PC价 格将上涨约5%。 根据TrendForce集邦咨询存储器产业调查，2026年第一季度，AI与数据中心需求持续加剧全球存储器供 需失衡，原厂议价能力有增无减，预估第一季度整体Conventional DRAM合约价将上涨90-95%，NAND Flash合约价也将上涨 ...

Core Insights - Lenovo Group reported a double-digit growth in overall revenue and profit contribution in the China region for Q3 of FY 2025/26, with a year-on-year increase of 15% and 20% respectively [1] - The Tianxi AI has been upgraded to version 3.5, enhancing multi-modal experiences across devices and ecosystems, transitioning from an "assistant" to a "teammate" [1] Group 1: AI Development Strategy - Lenovo aims to leverage local computing resources more effectively as the cost of tokens for AI usage increases, promoting a hybrid architecture of "end-edge-cloud" for better user experience and cost balance [3] - The Tianxi ecosystem has seen significant growth, with over 3,200 AI applications and nearly 10,000 active developers, marking a 50% quarter-on-quarter increase [3] Group 2: User Engagement and Experience - The average weekly active rates for Tianxi AI on Lenovo AI PCs and AI phones reached 42% and 61% respectively, with an accelerating trend [4] - The company plans to continuously iterate on the personal super intelligent agent to enhance user engagement and leverage hardware advantages for ecosystem service momentum [4]