Market Overview - The S&P 500 rose by 5% in June, driven by optimism regarding trade deals, a ceasefire in the Middle East, and potential interest rate cuts in 2025 [1] - Positive economic indicators, including strong manufacturing data, increased factory orders, and a favorable jobs report for June, alleviated recession fears [1] July Market Conditions - As July begins, the job market remains robust, inflation is cooling, and companies are set to announce earnings [2] - Trade disagreements may cause short-term market fluctuations, but new trade agreements could provide additional momentum [2] Stock Recommendations - Recommended stocks based on relative price strength include Dell Technologies Inc. (DELL), Jabil Inc. (JBL), Phibro Animal Health Corporation (PAHC), and Hudbay Minerals Inc. (HBM) [3][9] Relative Price Strength Strategy - Investors should assess stocks based on earnings growth and valuation multiples, while also considering their performance relative to industry peers [4] - Underperforming stocks should be avoided, while those outperforming their sectors in price should be prioritized for potential returns [5] Investment Criteria - Stocks that have outperformed the S&P 500 over the past 1, 4, and 12 weeks, along with positive earnings estimate revisions, indicate growth potential [6][8] - A focus on analyst optimism regarding upcoming earnings is crucial, as upward revisions can lead to price gains [7] Screening Parameters - Stocks must show positive relative price changes over 1, 4, and 12 weeks, and have positive current-quarter estimate revisions [8] - Stocks must have a minimum price of $5 and an average 20-day volume of at least 50,000 for adequate liquidity [10] Company Profiles - **Dell Technologies Inc. (DELL)**: Market cap of $84.7 billion, expected EPS growth of 16% year-over-year for fiscal 2026, with a trailing earnings surprise of 2.3% [11][12] - **Jabil Inc. (JBL)**: Expected EPS growth rate of 16.6% over three to five years, with a 102% share price increase in the past year [13][14] - **Phibro Animal Health Corporation (PAHC)**: Market cap of $1.2 billion, expected EPS growth of 71.4% for fiscal 2025, with a 75.7% share price increase in the past year [14][15] - **Hudbay Minerals Inc. (HBM)**: Expected EPS growth rate of 51.7% over three to five years, with a 43.8% year-over-year growth estimate for 2025 and a 17.6% share price increase in the past year [16][17]

Core Viewpoint - Protests blocking roads in Peru have not had a significant impact on Hudbay Minerals Inc.'s operations [1] Company Summary - Hudbay Minerals Inc. continues to operate without substantial disruption despite ongoing protests in Peru [1]

Industry Investment Rating - Cautiously bullish [8] Core Viewpoints - The current spot TC price of copper concentrate remains low, but the mid-year long-term contract price signed by Antofagasta and Chinese smelters is $0/ton, which is better than the current spot price. - Due to the premium of Comex copper price, LME and domestic inventories are continuously flowing to the US market, leading to persistent squeeze pressure. Coupled with the recent increase in risk sentiment, it is favorable for copper prices. - The operation of copper varieties is recommended to focus on buying hedges on dips, with the buying range suggested between RMB 78,600/ton and RMB 79,200/ton. The option strategy is to sell put options at RMB 78,000/ton [8]. Summary by Directory Market News and Important Data - **Futures Quotes**: On July 2, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai copper opened at RMB 80,620/ton and closed at RMB 80,540/ton, down 0.12% from the previous trading day's close. The night session opened at RMB 80,560/ton and closed at RMB 80,900/ton, up 0.35% from the afternoon close [1]. - **Spot Situation**: High copper prices have suppressed downstream demand. Although there is a demand for low-price purchases, the overall situation is not ideal. The supply in Changzhou is tight, and the transaction is better than that in Shanghai. It is expected that the spot premium will continue to be suppressed, but the downward space is limited [2]. - **Important Information Summary** - **Macro and Geopolitical**: The US ADP employment decreased by 33,000 in June, and the Challenger job - cuts reached 47,999, the lowest since December 2024. Interest rate futures almost fully price in a Fed rate cut in September. Trump announced a trade agreement with Vietnam. China's National Development and Reform Commission has arranged over RMB 300 billion for the third - batch "two - major" construction projects in 2025 [3]. - **Mine End**: India will send geologists to Zambia for copper and cobalt exploration. Chile's Congress passed the "Investment Project Approval Acceleration Act", which is expected to shorten project approval time by 30% - 70%. Peruvian non - formal miners' roadblocks have disrupted copper transportation [4]. - **Smelting and Import**: From January to May 2025, Russia's exports of basic metals to China increased significantly, with copper exports up 66% year - on - year [5]. - **Consumption**: The operating rate of the domestic refined copper rod industry dropped to 74.01%, and that of copper cable enterprises dropped to 70.18%. Some enterprises faced losses due to rising raw material prices and had to cut production. The estimated wholesale sales of new energy passenger vehicles in June were 1.26 million, up 29% year - on - year [6][7]. - **Inventory and Warehouse Receipts**: LME warehouse receipts changed by 625 tons to 93,250 tons, SHFE warehouse receipts changed by 324 tons to 25,097 tons, and the domestic electrolytic copper spot inventory on June 30 was 126,100 tons, a change of - 4,000 tons from the previous week [7]. Strategy - **Copper Varieties**: Buy hedges on dips, with the buying range between RMB 78,600/ton and RMB 79,200/ton [8]. - **Option Strategy**: Sell put options at RMB 78,000/ton [8].

日度报告——综合晨报 美国 ADP 就业不及预期，美越或将达成贸易 协议 [T报ab告le_日R期an：k] 2025-07-03 宏观策略（外汇期货(美元指数)） ADP 就业不及预期 最新的 ADP 就业远不及预期，但是市场对此反应较为平淡，美 元指数短期反弹。 宏观策略（美国股指期货） 合 今年 8000 亿"两重"项目清单全部下达完毕 晨 报 "反内卷"和海洋经济板块出现明显上涨，而军工股则有所回 落。股指成交缩量窄幅震荡。对于"反内卷"需要注意其更多 指向中下游行业以及部分新兴行业而非简单地上游行业。 黑色金属（动力煤） 7 月 2 日北港市场动力煤报价暂稳 高温持续下，电厂日耗维持季节性高位，短期煤价有所企稳。7 月初，前期安监环保影响陆续环节。内蒙产区已经陆续放开。 整体煤价预计在夏季维持稳定。 农产品（豆油/菜油/棕榈油） 印度：6 月份棕榈油进口量增加 61%至 95.3 万吨 印度 6 月棕榈油进口大幅增长，参议院禁止北美以外燃料申请 45Z 税收抵免。 特朗普称美越达成贸易协议 小非农意外爆冷，但三大股指表现维持强势，市场继续等待周 四晚公布的非农数据。 综 宏观策略（股指期货） 有色金 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Overall, the market is influenced by various factors such as policy changes, supply - demand dynamics, and geopolitical events. Different metals show different trends and investment opportunities based on their unique fundamentals [4][12][21]. - For copper, the 232 tariff uncertainty and inventory changes are key factors affecting price and spread. For alumina, Guinea's policy reform and market sentiment play important roles. For electrolytic aluminum, macro - sentiment and seasonal changes in production and consumption are crucial. Other metals also have their own influencing factors and corresponding price trends [4][12][21]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Copper - **Market Review** - Futures: The Shanghai Copper 2508 contract closed at 80,540 yuan/ton, up 0.65%, with the Shanghai Copper index increasing positions by 4,906 lots to 601,000 lots. - Spot: The spot premium of Shanghai copper dropped to 120 yuan/ton, down 80 yuan/ton from the previous day. Guangdong and Tianjin had different spot premiums and changes [2]. - **Important资讯** - Logistics transportation of some mines in Peru was disrupted due to roadblocks set by informal miners, leading to an interruption in copper concentrate transportation [3]. - **Logic Analysis** - The market expects the 232 tariff to be implemented in September - October, and the expectation of a 25% tariff is strengthening. LME inventory is increasing, and short - term external market squeeze risk is easing. Non - US inventories are difficult to increase effectively before the 232 tariff is implemented, which supports price and spread [4]. - **Trading Strategy** - Unilateral: Low - inventory and 232 delay expectations drive prices up. - Arbitrage: Buy near - term and sell far - term. - Options: Wait and see [5][7]. Alumina - **Market Review** - Futures: The Alumina 2509 contract rose 130 yuan to 3,071 yuan/ton, with positions decreasing by 6,396 lots to 422,300 lots. - Spot: Spot prices in different regions remained flat [8]. - **Related资讯** - China's central government emphasized the construction of a unified national market and marine economic development. Guinea plans to reform its mining industry, including creating an aluminum ore index and exercising sales and transportation rights. An aluminum plant in Xinjiang had a higher winning bid price for alumina. The Shanghai Futures Exchange's alumina warehouse receipts decreased [9][10][11]. - **Logic Analysis** - Alumina prices rose due to Guinea's new policy and market rumors. The market is worried about the impact on alumina production. The supply - demand of bauxite is in a tight - balance in the second half of the year, and the price is supported but limited by previous over - supply [12]. - **Trading Strategy** - Unilateral: Alumina prices are expected to rebound due to market sentiment, and subsequent warehouse receipt changes should be monitored. - Arbitrage: Wait and see. - Options: Wait and see [14][15]. Electrolytic Aluminum - **Market Review** - Futures: The Shanghai Aluminum 2507 contract rose 100 yuan/ton to 20,850 yuan/ton, with positions increasing by 12,660 lots to 693,100 lots. - Spot: Spot prices in different regions increased [17]. - **Related资讯** - Aluminum inventory decreased slightly. Warehouse receipts decreased. Aluminum rod production decreased last week. China's photovoltaic new - installed capacity increased significantly in May. The US Senate passed a bill [18]. - **Trading Logic** - Macro - sentiment improved, and the seasonal decrease in aluminum water conversion rate and the increase in photovoltaic new - installed capacity are important factors. Aluminum ingot social inventory is expected to fluctuate slightly in July, and the decline in warehouse receipts may slow down. The off - season of aluminum consumption may not be too severe [21]. - **Trading Strategy** - Unilateral: Aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate strongly with the sector. - Arbitrage: Pay attention to positive arbitrage opportunities between 7 - 9 and 9 - 12 during de - stocking and exit during stocking. - Options: Wait and see [22]. Casting Aluminum Alloy - **Market Review** - Futures: The Casting Aluminum Alloy 2511 contract rose 90 yuan to 19,885 yuan/ton, with positions increasing by 383 lots to 10,472 lots. - Spot: Spot prices in different regions remained flat [24]. - **Related资讯** - China emphasized the construction of a unified national market. The expected sales volume of passenger cars in June increased. The social inventory of recycled aluminum alloy ingots in some places increased. A company plans to build a recycling aluminum project [24][25]. - **Trading Logic** - The futures price of aluminum alloy follows the price of aluminum. The spot market is weak in the off - season, but the price is supported by cost. There are still futures - spot arbitrage opportunities [28]. - **Trading Strategy** - Unilateral: The absolute price of aluminum alloy futures is expected to fluctuate strongly with the price of aluminum. - Arbitrage: Consider arbitrage when the spread between aluminum alloy and aluminum is between - 200 and - 1,000 yuan, and consider futures - spot arbitrage when the spread is over 400 yuan. - Options: Wait and see [28]. Zinc - **Market Review** - Futures: The Shanghai Zinc 2508 contract fell 0.11% to 22,230 yuan/ton, with the index position decreasing by 4,934 lots to 263,800 lots. - Spot: The spot market in Shanghai had limited trading, with the premium of domestic spot to the average price rising, but downstream buyers remained on the sidelines [30]. - **Related资讯** - A zinc smelter in Peru resumed production. The domestic zinc ore tender price in June increased [31]. - **Logic Analysis** - Supply - side interference factors have subsided, and domestic refined zinc production is expected to increase in July. The consumption of zinc is entering the off - season, and downstream demand is weak. Domestic social inventory is expected to increase, and zinc prices may face downward pressure [32]. - **Trading Strategy** - Unilateral: Wait and see, and consider short - selling at high prices. - Arbitrage: Wait and see. - Options: Wait and see [35][39]. Lead - **Market Review** - Futures: The Shanghai Lead 2508 contract rose 0.23% to 17,175 yuan/ton, with the index position increasing by 239 lots to 83,800 lots. - Spot: The spot transaction of primary lead improved, with different regions having different price quotes and changes [35]. - **Related资讯** - A recycled lead smelter in the western region will complete maintenance in July and may resume production in August. Overseas crude lead arrived at the port this week [36]. - **Logic Analysis** - The operating rate of domestic primary lead smelters remains high, while the recycled lead smelters are in a loss, and the supply may tighten. The traditional peak season of lead - acid batteries is coming, and lead prices may fluctuate strongly [37]. - **Trading Strategy** - Unilateral: Hold profitable long positions. - Arbitrage: Wait and see. - Options: Wait and see [39][40]. Nickel - **Market Review** - Futures: The Shanghai Nickel main contract NI2508 rose 830 to 121,220 yuan/ton, with the index position increasing by 2,288 lots. - Spot: The premium of Jinchuan nickel decreased, and the premiums of Russian nickel and electrowinning nickel remained unchanged [41]. - **Related资讯** - Analysts expect nickel prices to rebound significantly in the second half of 2025 due to supply tightening in Indonesia. Indonesia plans to shorten the mining quota period [42]. - **Logic Analysis** - Nickel prices are fluctuating weakly above 120,000 yuan. The demand in July is entering the off - season, and the supply - demand is in a weak balance. Indonesia's policy adjustment may have limited impact on actual production, and nickel prices will continue to fluctuate [43]. - **Trading Strategy** - Unilateral: Consider short - selling on rebounds. - Arbitrage: Wait and see. - Options: Consider selling call options after rebounds [44][46]. Stainless Steel - **Market Review** - Futures: The main SS2508 contract rose 135 to 12,670 yuan/ton, with the index position decreasing by 4,059 lots. - Spot: The spot prices of cold - rolled and hot - rolled stainless steel are in a certain range [48]. - **Important资讯** - The EU's carbon border adjustment mechanism may bring cost risks to stainless steel importers [49][51]. - **Logic Analysis** - Stainless steel prices rebounded with the commodity market, but exports and domestic demand are weak. The decline in nickel ore prices may provide some breathing space, and there may be hedging opportunities. The upward space of stainless steel prices is limited [52]. - **Trading Strategy** - Unilateral: Stainless steel prices are expected to decline in a fluctuating manner. Pay attention to domestic stimulus policies and US tariff progress. - Arbitrage: Wait and see [53][54]. Tin - **Market Review** - Futures: The main Shanghai Tin 2508 contract closed at 268,520 yuan/ton, up 1,180 yuan/ton or 0.44%, with positions increasing by 282 lots to 56,207 lots. - Spot: The spot price of tin in Shanghai rose, but the actual transaction was limited, with most downstream buyers remaining on the sidelines [56]. - **Related资讯** - The US Senate passed a tax - cut and spending bill, which is beneficial to photovoltaic stocks [57]. - **Logic Analysis** - The market expects the 232 tariff to be postponed to September/October. LME inventory is decreasing, and the supply is fragile. The supply of tin ore is tight, and the demand is in the off - season [58]. - **Trading Strategy** - Unilateral: The short - term market is strong. Pay attention to the resumption of tin ore production [59]. Industrial Silicon - **Market Review** - Futures: Driven by the sentiment of polysilicon futures, the main contract of industrial silicon futures rose 4.79% to 8,210 yuan/ton. - Spot: After the futures price increase, the shipment of silicon plants in Xinjiang and Inner Mongolia accelerated, with shipment prices ranging from 7,600 to 8,050 yuan/ton [62][63]. - **Related资讯** - China emphasized the construction of a unified national market. In July, the resumption and new - investment capacity of polysilicon will exceed 350,000 tons [64]. - **Comprehensive Analysis** - The demand for industrial silicon will increase in July, and the spot price may not decline before the full resumption of leading manufacturers. Market rumors and policy factors may affect market sentiment. In the short - term, it is recommended to participate in the long - side with a pressure level of 8,500 yuan/ton [64]. - **Strategy** - Unilateral: Participate in the long - side in the short - term, with a pressure level of 8,500 yuan/ton. - Options: Wait and see. - Arbitrage: Consider reverse arbitrage for Si2511 and Si2512 [65]. Polysilicon - **Market Review** - Futures: Affected by price - limit rumors, polysilicon futures rose to the daily limit. - Spot: The spot prices of different types of polysilicon decreased to varying degrees [66]. - **Related资讯** - China emphasized the construction of a unified national market. In July, the resumption and new - investment capacity of polysilicon will exceed 350,000 tons, and polysilicon may face inventory accumulation [64][68]. - **Comprehensive Analysis** - Although the industry is facing negative factors, policy implementation may support the price above 34,000 yuan/ton. It is recommended to participate in the long - side in the short - term, with a pressure level of 36,000 yuan/ton [68]. - **Strategy** - Unilateral: Participate in long - positions in far - month contracts in the short - term, with a pressure level of 36,000 yuan/ton. - Options: Wait and see. - Arbitrage: Wait and see [69]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review** - Futures: The main 2509 contract rose 1,980 to 62,780 yuan/ton, with the index position decreasing by 2,761 lots, and the Guangzhou Futures Exchange's warehouse receipts increasing by 240 to 23,180 tons. - Spot: The spot prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate increased [70]. - **Important资讯** - CATL has future plans for battery recycling and started a battery factory project in Indonesia. Chile's copper company obtained a lithium mining quota, and the Chilean Congress passed a bill to speed up project approval [71][73]. - **Logic Analysis** - Lithium carbonate prices rose, but the industry has over - capacity. In July, the supply may increase, and the demand may increase slightly. The short - term rebound may not last, and it is recommended to short on rebounds [74]. - **Trading Strategy** - Unilateral: Short on rebounds. - Arbitrage: Wait and see. - Options: Sell out - of - the - money call options [75][77].

Group 1 - Hudbay Minerals Inc. (HBM) has seen a 30.8% increase in the Zacks Consensus Estimate for its current year earnings over the last 60 days [1] - Shore Bancshares, Inc. (SHBI) has experienced a 7.1% increase in the Zacks Consensus Estimate for its current year earnings over the last 60 days [1] - National Grid plc (NGG) has recorded a 5.4% increase in the Zacks Consensus Estimate for its current year earnings over the last 60 days [2] - Eagle Bancorp Montana, Inc. (EBMT) has seen an increase of nearly 9% in the Zacks Consensus Estimate for its current year earnings over the last 60 days [2] - Greif, Inc. (GEF) has experienced a 6.9% increase in the Zacks Consensus Estimate for its current year earnings over the last 60 days [3]

Group 1: Eagle Bancorp Montana, Inc. (EBMT) - Eagle Bancorp Montana, Inc. is a bank holding company for Opportunity Bank of Montana and has a Zacks Rank of 1 [1] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for its current year earnings has increased nearly 9% over the last 60 days [1] - The company has a price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) of 9.85, which is lower than the industry average of 10.80, and possesses a Value Score of A [1] Group 2: Hudbay Minerals Inc. (HBM) - Hudbay Minerals Inc. is a diversified mining company with a Zacks Rank of 1 [2] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for its current year earnings has increased by 30.8% over the last 60 days [2] - The company has a price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) of 15.56, significantly lower than the S&P 500 average of 23.15, and possesses a Value Score of A [2] Group 3: Shore Bancshares, Inc. (SHBI) - Shore Bancshares, Inc. is a bank holding company for Shore United Bank and has a Zacks Rank of 1 [3] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for its current year earnings has increased by 7.1% over the last 60 days [3] - The company has a price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) of 9.34, which is lower than the industry average of 10.40, and possesses a Value Score of B [3]

Hudbay Minerals Inc. (NYSE: HBM ) is one of the few mid-cap names in the copper space that has quite a few good signs. It has solid producing assets, improving margins, has some upside from both copper and gold and no existentialI’m a passionate investor and financial advisor with a focus on equity markets — especially growth and small-cap stocks. Backed by a finance degree and completing my Master’s in Investment Management, I combine hands-on portfolio experience with academic rigor. My strategy is rooted ...

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-06-18 俄罗斯货源并不被普遍认可 流动货源仍相对偏紧 市场要闻与重要数据 期货行情： 2025-06-17，沪铜主力合约开于 78640元/吨，收于 78570元/吨，较前一交易日收盘0.03%，昨日夜盘沪铜主力合约 开于 78,600元/吨，收于 78,560 元/吨，较昨日午后收盘上涨0.04%。 现货情况： 铜：谨慎偏多 总体而言，本周国内长单价格仍在谈判之中，现货TC价格仍处于低位，不过下游精铜杆企业反馈订单持续走低。 未来需求展望仍存较大不确定性。但在地缘因素复杂，美联储持续存在降息压力的情况下，铜品种的类贵金属属 性或许也会从中受益。故操作上目前仍然建议以逢低买入套保为主，买入区间在77,000元/吨至77,500元/吨。 套利：暂缓 期权：short put @ 77,000元/吨 据 SMM 讯， 昨日SMM 1#电解铜现货对当月2507合约报升水180-升水300元/吨，均价报价升水240 元/吨，较上 一交易日涨210元/吨；SMM1#电解铜价格为78620~78810 元/吨。早盘，沪期铜2507合约窄幅波动，于78420-78560 元/吨波动； ...

Core Insights - Hudbay Minerals Inc. has resumed operations at the Snow Lake mine in Manitoba after evacuation orders were lifted due to a wildfire crisis [2][7] - The company is prioritizing gold zones at the Lalor mine and expects the New Britannia gold mill to reach full production this week [3][7] - Hudbay Minerals has pledged over $2 million in support for wildfire relief, including $1.6 million for evacuated employees and $500,000 to the Canadian Red Cross [4][7] Company Operations - Operations at the Snow Lake mine were temporarily suspended on June 4, 2025, due to advancing wildfires [2] - The company is on track to meet its 2025 annual guidance for Manitoba, driven by strong performance in the Snow Lake mine [3] Community Support Initiatives - Hudbay Minerals is working with local communities to assist employees and neighbors in returning to the region [4] - The company has secured accommodations for evacuated employees and their families and has deployed external firefighters [5] - A community Relief Donations Fund has been established, with the company contributing $2 for every $1 donated by employees [5] Stock Performance - Hudbay Minerals' shares have increased by 11.6% over the past year, outperforming the industry growth of 1% [6]