二 〇 二 五 年 度 2025 年 5 月 8 日 2025 年 6 月沪深指数调样预测： 中证 500 或大量纳入信息技术板块 | 虞堪 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002804 | yukan@gtht.com | | --- | --- | --- | | 李宏磊 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0018445 | lihonglei@gtht.com | 报告导读： ◼ 四月波动后，国家队再次借道指数 ETF 入市维稳，叠加社保、险资等中长期资金持续入市， 挂钩核心宽基指数的 ETF 产品规模再次扩容。截至 2025 年 5 月，挂钩上证 50、沪深 300、 中证 500 和中证 1000 指数的产品合计规模约 1.7 万亿。本次调整将于 2025 年 6 月 16 日生 效，由于近期市场波动较大，最终结果可能存在较多主观调整的成分，请以正式公告为准。 ◼ 上证 50：我们预测本次调整将涉及 2 只成分股调整，江苏银行、工业富联或将纳入上证 50；海天味业、中国中铁或将调出指数。本次调整纳入个股分别属于金融和信息技术板块， 调出个股分别属于主要消费和工业板块。预测纳入的个股近一个月平均上涨 8.88%， ...

Group 1 - China Railway Group announced a plan to repurchase part of its A-shares at a board meeting scheduled for April 29, 2025 [1] - The top ten unrestricted shareholders hold approximately 184 billion shares, accounting for 74.35% of the total shares [1] - The largest shareholder is China Railway Engineering Group, holding about 116.23 billion shares, which is 46.98% of the total [1] Group 2 - For the year 2024, the revenue composition of China Railway Group is as follows: infrastructure construction 85.57%, real estate development 4.16%, engineering equipment and parts manufacturing 2.14%, surveying design and consulting services 1.5%, and resource utilization 0.7% [2] - As of the latest report, the market capitalization of China Railway Group is 138.8 billion yuan [2]

（公告编号：2025-030）。根据《上市公司股份回购规则》《上海证券交 易所上市公司自律监管指引第 7 号——回购股份》等有关规定，现将公 司披露董事会公告回购股份决议的前一个交易日（2025 年 4 月 29 日） 登记在册的前十大股东和前十大无限售条件股东的名称、持股数量及持股 比例情况公告如下： | 序号 | 股东名称 | 持股数量（股） | 持股比例 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1 | 中国铁路工程集团有限公司 | 11,623,119,890 | 46.98% | | 2 | HKSCC Nominees Limited | 4,011,292,801 | 16.21% | | 3 | 国新发展投资管理有限公司 | 742,605,892 | 3.00% | 一、前十名股东持股情况 | A股代码：601390 | A | 股简称：中国中铁 | 公告编号：临2025-033 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | H股代码：00390 | H | 股简称：中国中铁 | | 中国中铁股份有限公司 关于回购股份事项前十大股东和前十大无限售条件股东 持股 ...

Group 1 - The global technology solicitation event for "Deep Space Intelligent Excavation and New Mining Equipment" was officially launched in Zhengzhou, China on May 8, 2023, with the theme "Breaking Boundaries, Moving Deep" [1][3] - The event aims to address key technological bottlenecks in deep space development, focusing on four core areas: intelligent and efficient excavation equipment for deep mines, new mining processes and equipment for extreme deep environments, prevention of geological disasters in deep mining areas, and environmentally friendly construction in multi-field coupled environments [2][5] - The solicitation is open to global research institutions, high-tech enterprises, and international innovation alliances, encouraging interdisciplinary teams to participate, with a collection period lasting one year starting from May 10, 2025 [5] Group 2 - The event is part of a broader initiative to promote innovation in excavation equipment, transitioning from mechanization to intelligence, particularly in response to challenges such as high temperature, high pressure, and water inrush in kilometer-level deep space development [5] - The largest diameter shield machine exported from China, with a diameter of 15.7 meters and a length of approximately 113 meters, is being prepared for delivery for a project in Western Australia [5]

Core Viewpoint - The performance of China's nine major state-owned construction enterprises in the first quarter of 2025 shows a mixed result, with total revenue declining by 4.23% year-on-year to 1.654563 trillion yuan and net profit down by 9.90% to 39.507 billion yuan, indicating a phase of adjustment in the industry [1][2][3]. Revenue and Profit Summary - The nine construction state-owned enterprises reported a total revenue of 1,654.563 billion yuan, a decrease of 4.23% year-on-year, and a net profit of 39.507 billion yuan, down 9.90% year-on-year [1][3]. - Among these enterprises, China Construction (中国建筑) achieved the highest revenue of 555.342 billion yuan, while China Chemical (中国化学) led in net profit growth with an increase of 18.77% [1][6][7]. Performance Disparity - Three companies, namely China Construction, China Energy Construction (中国能建), and China Chemical, managed to achieve net profit growth, while the remaining six companies experienced declines [2][3]. - The decline in profits for six enterprises is attributed to intensified market competition, rising costs, project delays, and changes in policies and taxation [2][4]. Factors Influencing Performance - Key factors affecting the performance include rising project costs due to fluctuating raw material prices, project delays caused by planning adjustments and extreme weather, and increased competition leading to price pressures [4][5]. - China Chemical's strong performance is attributed to improved internal management, enhanced production efficiency, and successful market expansion, particularly in high-value sectors like new materials and renewable energy [6][7]. Future Outlook - The construction industry is expected to face continued pressure in 2024 and early 2025, but there are indications that infrastructure investment may increase as a means to stimulate economic growth [8][9]. - The government is planning to implement new policies to boost investment in infrastructure, which could lead to improved performance for construction enterprises in the future [8][9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the construction materials sector, indicating expected performance above the market index by over 10% [5][84]. Core Views - The construction industry is facing profit pressure, while the building materials sector is expected to see a recovery in profitability. The first quarter of 2025 showed a decline in construction revenue by 3.8% year-on-year and a net profit drop of 14.1% [2][3]. - Cement prices have seen a slight recovery due to supply adjustments, while glass fiber has experienced significant profit recovery. However, the glass sector remains largely unprofitable, awaiting supply-demand adjustments [2][3]. Summary by Sections Cement - National cement prices fell by 0.8% week-on-week, with regional variations. Demand remains weak, and prices are expected to fluctuate weakly in the near future [2][23]. Glass - The float glass market is experiencing weak demand, with prices remaining stable but overall market activity subdued. The photovoltaic glass market is also under pressure, with prices declining by 3.51% for 2.0mm coated glass [2][34][44]. Glass Fiber - The price of non-alkali roving has decreased by 2.55% to an average of 3735 yuan/ton, while electronic yarn prices remain stable. Demand for high-end electronic yarn is strong, supporting production and sales [2][51]. Investment Recommendations - For building materials, the report suggests focusing on resilient consumer material leaders such as Sanke Tree and Beixin Building Materials, as well as cement and glass fiber companies like Conch Cement and China Jushi, which are expected to see profit recovery [3]. - In the construction sector, major state strategic projects are anticipated to boost demand, with recommendations for companies like China Railway Construction and China Communications Construction, which are involved in significant engineering projects [3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Optimistic" rating for the construction and decoration sector [5][4] Core Insights - The construction industry is experiencing pressure on revenue and profits, with major listed companies achieving operating revenue of 8.18 trillion yuan in 2024, down 3.70% year-on-year, and a net profit of 168.4 billion yuan, down 14.6% year-on-year. In Q1 2025, operating revenue was 1.84 trillion yuan, down 6.13% year-on-year, with a net profit of 44.5 billion yuan, down 8.78% year-on-year [3][4] - The industry’s gross margin remained relatively stable, while net profit margin declined. The gross margin for 2024 was 10.9%, unchanged from the previous year, while the net profit margin was 2.06%, down 0.26 percentage points year-on-year. For Q1 2025, the gross margin was 9.1%, down 0.1 percentage points, and the net profit margin was 2.42%, down 0.07 percentage points [12][3] - Operating cash flow has deteriorated, with a net cash flow of 106.8 billion yuan in 2024, down 62 billion yuan year-on-year. In Q1 2025, the net cash flow was -421.1 billion yuan, an increase in outflow of 10.9 billion yuan year-on-year [4][18] - The industry’s return on equity (ROE) decreased, with an overall ROE of 4.93% in 2024, down 1.16 percentage points year-on-year, and 1.29% in Q1 2025, down 0.19 percentage points year-on-year [22][4] Summary by Sections 1. Financial Overview of Listed Companies - The construction industry faced revenue and profit pressures in 2024, with significant declines in both metrics due to local government debt pressures and a downturn in the real estate sector [11][4] 2. ROE Analysis - The industry ROE declined, with a notable drop in central state-owned enterprises, while private enterprises showed some improvement [22][4] 3. Growth Analysis - Revenue growth slowed, with a decline in prepayments for central state-owned enterprises indicating a challenging investment environment [11][4] 4. Cash Flow Analysis - The industry experienced weakened operating cash flow, with significant outflows in Q1 2025, necessitating attention to future debt resolution and fiscal funding [18][4] 5. Market Perception - The report suggests that the market underestimates the investment opportunities in the construction and real estate sectors, emphasizing the potential for renovation and infrastructure projects [6][4]

Group 1 - The Trump administration plans to lift AI chip export restrictions established during the Biden era, which has faced strong opposition from major tech companies and foreign governments [2] - The new policy will categorize countries into three groups to regulate chip exports from companies like Nvidia [2] - The U.S. Department of Commerce criticized Biden's AI rules as overly complex and bureaucratic, stating that a simpler rule will be introduced to enhance U.S. innovation in AI [2] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve has maintained the benchmark interest rate for the third consecutive time, highlighting rising risks of inflation and unemployment [3] - Fed Chairman Powell noted that the impact of tariffs has been greater than expected, but he denied any plans for preemptive rate cuts [3] - The Fed aims for a long-term inflation target of 2% while acknowledging increased uncertainty in the economic outlook [3] Group 3 - The China Securities Regulatory Commission has announced a comprehensive reform plan for the public fund industry, which is valued at over 30 trillion yuan [4] - The plan focuses on optimizing fee structures for actively managed equity funds and improving industry assessment mechanisms [4] - The reform aims to shift the focus of public funds from "scale" to "returns," marking a pivotal moment for high-quality development in the industry [4] Group 4 - Zeekr plans to delist from the U.S. stock market, becoming the first Chinese concept stock to do so amid ongoing U.S.-China tariff tensions [5] - The potential delisting has reignited discussions about the return of Chinese companies to domestic markets, with estimates suggesting that 27 Chinese concept stocks could meet the criteria for listing in Hong Kong [5] Group 5 - China's foreign exchange reserves increased for the fourth consecutive month, reaching $32,817 billion, with a month-on-month rise of $41 billion [6] - The increase is attributed to factors such as macroeconomic policies and expectations of economic growth in major economies [6] - The resilience and vitality of China's economy are seen as beneficial for maintaining stable foreign exchange reserves [6] Group 6 - Insurance companies have increased their stake in listed companies to 13 instances this year, reflecting a growing commitment from long-term capital [7] - Recent financial policies aim to enhance the investment capacity of insurance funds, potentially stabilizing and invigorating the capital market [7] - The implementation of new accounting standards is expected to influence the investment strategies of insurance companies [7] Group 7 - The ongoing military conflict between India and Pakistan has escalated, with significant casualties reported on both sides [8] - Experts warn that the current tensions could lead to severe consequences, urging both nations to pursue diplomatic solutions [8] Group 8 - The A-share market showed a rebound with all three major indices closing in the green, driven by strong performances in defense and agriculture sectors [9] - The Hong Kong stock market experienced mixed results, with the Hang Seng Index slightly up while the technology index fell [10] - U.S. stock markets closed higher, with notable gains in semiconductor stocks, while major tech companies like Google and Apple faced declines [9][10]

Market Overview - US stock markets collectively rose, with the Dow Jones up 0.7%, Nasdaq up 0.27%, and S&P 500 up 0.43% [1] - Nvidia increased by 3.1%, Amazon by 2%, and Meta Platforms by 1.62%, while Google A dropped by 7.26% [1] Federal Reserve - The Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds rate target range at 4.25%-4.5%, aligning with market expectations [2] Technology Developments - Trump plans to abolish AI chip restrictions imposed during Biden's administration [3] - Apple is preparing a major overhaul of Safari, targeting AI search capabilities, which poses a significant challenge to Google's market position [6] - OpenAI is in discussions with the FDA to incorporate AI in drug evaluation processes [7] - OpenAI plans to expand its "Stargate" project beyond the US [5] Defense Spending - Germany's Defense Minister aims to increase annual defense spending to over €60 billion starting in 2025 [4] Investment Activities - Uber is committing an additional $100 million equity investment in WeRide [8] Domestic Developments - The Chinese government is enhancing financial support for small and micro enterprises in sectors like accommodation, catering, and tourism [9] - The China Securities Regulatory Commission has issued a plan to promote high-quality development of public funds, linking fund manager compensation to performance [9] Market Strategies - Everbright Securities indicates signs of improvement in tariff issues and anticipates more favorable domestic policies, suggesting a potential upward trend in the market [10] - Huawei is set to launch its HarmonyOS-based PC, marking a significant entry into the desktop operating system market [10] - XPeng Motors is considering an IPO for its flying car subsidiary, XPeng Heavens, potentially in Hong Kong or the US [10][11] Robotics and AI - Lenovo has launched the first personal and enterprise "super intelligent agent" at the TechWorld conference [12] - The world humanoid robot competition will take place in Beijing in August 2025, marking a significant event in the robotics industry [13] Company Announcements - Hainan Development plans to acquire a 51% stake in Wangying Technology for ¥450 million [16] - Qingdao Beer intends to acquire 100% of Jimo Yellow Wine to enhance product lines and market channels [16] - Xinjian Mining's acquisition of Xinjiang Meisheng Mining is aimed at expanding its resource base [16] - Baijia Shenzhou reported a turnaround from loss to profit in Q1, driven by sales growth of its self-developed products [17] Stock Performance - Notable stock performances include Tongyi Aerospace up 25.11%, Changshan Pharmaceutical up 20.02%, and Huawei Harmony up 14.01% [18] Upcoming Market Events - Several companies will have their shares unlocked, including Guotai Haitong with a market value of ¥4.83 billion on May 8 [19][20]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [11] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 248.564 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 6.21%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 6.025 billion yuan, down 19.46% year-on-year [2][8] - The company's mineral resources business is developing steadily, with significant growth in overseas contracts despite a decline in new domestic contracts [8] Financial Performance - The company's Q1 revenue breakdown shows infrastructure construction, design consulting, equipment manufacturing, and real estate development revenues of 216.796 billion, 4.67 billion, 6.246 billion, and 6.671 billion yuan respectively, with real estate development seeing a notable increase of 59.48% year-on-year [8] - The overall gross margin for Q1 was 8.46%, a decrease of 0.13 percentage points year-on-year, with specific margins for different segments also declining [8] - The net profit margin for Q1 was 2.42%, down 0.40 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin after deducting non-recurring items was 2.23%, down 0.47 percentage points year-on-year [8] Contract and Cash Flow Analysis - New contracts signed in Q1 totaled 560.1 billion yuan, a decrease of 9.9% year-on-year, with domestic contracts down 13.6% and overseas contracts up 33.4% [8] - The company experienced a net cash outflow from operating activities of 77.399 billion yuan in Q1, an increase of 9.334 billion yuan year-on-year, with a cash collection ratio of 91.02%, down 7.51 percentage points year-on-year [8] Mineral Resources Development - The company operates five modern mines, producing significant quantities of various metals, including 288,252 tons of copper and 5,629 tons of cobalt, indicating a robust operational status [8]