Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment outlook for the public utilities and environmental sectors, particularly in the context of recent regulatory changes and market dynamics [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights the regulatory measures in various provinces aimed at standardizing the retail price differences in electricity sales, which is expected to stabilize market expectations and improve the profitability of electricity sales companies [3][7]. - It notes the fluctuating natural gas prices globally, with U.S. prices rising while European prices are declining, indicating a complex supply-demand landscape influenced by geopolitical factors and seasonal demand [12][22]. - The report provides specific investment recommendations across various segments, including hydropower, thermal power, nuclear power, green energy, and gas-related companies, reflecting a diversified approach to capitalize on emerging opportunities [10][37]. Summary by Sections 1. Electricity: Regulation of Retail Price Differences - Guangdong has issued guidelines to regulate the retail price differences, proposing a sharing mechanism for excess profits above a set threshold starting in 2026 [7]. - Several provinces have introduced detailed policies to manage retail price differences, aiming to prevent excessive profits by electricity sales companies and ensure fair pricing for consumers [8][9]. - The report emphasizes the need for a shift from aggressive pricing strategies to a service-oriented business model for electricity sales companies, which could stabilize market expectations [9]. 2. Natural Gas: Global Price Fluctuations - As of November 28, U.S. Henry Hub spot prices reached $4.59/mmBtu, reflecting an 11.13% weekly increase, while European prices, such as TTF, fell by 5.37% to €28.75/MWh [12][13]. - The report notes that U.S. natural gas demand has surged due to cold weather, despite record production levels, leading to a tightening supply-demand balance [16]. - In Northeast Asia, LNG prices have decreased to $10.90/mmBtu, down 6.52% week-on-week, driven by weak demand and high inventory levels [31][34]. 3. Investment Recommendations - Hydropower: Favorable autumn floods are expected to enhance hydropower generation capacity for the winter and spring, with recommendations for major hydropower companies [10]. - Thermal Power: The diversification of revenue sources in thermal power companies is highlighted, with recommendations for integrated coal and power companies [11]. - Nuclear Power: The report suggests focusing on nuclear power companies due to stable cost structures and expected growth from new approvals [11]. - Green Energy: The introduction of new market rules for renewable energy is expected to stabilize returns for green energy operators [11]. - Gas and Environmental Companies: Recommendations include integrated gas trading companies and environmentally focused firms benefiting from regulatory changes [37].

证券研究报告·行业跟踪周报·燃气Ⅱ 燃气Ⅱ行业跟踪周报 天气转冷&库存下降美国气价上涨、库存提 取欧洲气价下行 增持（维持） [Table_Tag] [投资要点 Table_Summary] ◼ 风险提示：经济增速不及预期、极端天气、国际局势变化、安全经营风险。 2025 年 12 月 01 日 证券分析师 袁理 执业证书：S0600511080001 021-60199782 yuanl@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 谷玥 执业证书：S0600524090002 guy@dwzq.com.cn 行业走势 -15% -12% -9% -6% -3% 0% 3% 6% 9% 12% 15% 18% 2024/12/2 2025/4/1 2025/7/30 2025/11/27 燃气Ⅱ 沪深300 相关研究 《降温将至美国气价上涨、库存提取 欧洲气价下行》 2025-11-24 《降温预期消化，美国气价回落、欧 洲&中国气价微降》 2025-11-17 东吴证券研究所 1 / 13 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 ◼ 价格跟踪：天气转冷&库存下降美国气价上涨、库存提取欧洲气价下行。截 至 2025/11/ ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [4][6]. Core Views - The company is a leading private national city gas company, with ongoing privatization efforts aimed at promoting industry chain integration [5][8]. - The natural gas retail business shows steady growth, benefiting from cost reductions and price adjustments, while the gas connection business's impact is expected to stabilize [8][44]. - The company is expanding its diversified energy and smart home businesses, which are anticipated to contribute to incremental performance growth [5][8]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company, established in 1993, is a leading private clean energy distributor in China, primarily engaged in the investment, construction, operation, and management of gas pipeline infrastructure [14][15]. - As of mid-2025, the company operates 263 city gas projects across 22 provinces and municipalities in China [14]. Financial Performance - The company forecasts revenues of RMB 113.858 billion in 2023, with a projected decline to RMB 109.853 billion in 2024, followed by a recovery to RMB 112.714 billion in 2025 [4]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be RMB 6.816 billion in 2023, decreasing to RMB 5.987 billion in 2024, and then increasing to RMB 6.248 billion in 2025 [4]. Privatization Process - The company is undergoing a privatization process led by its major shareholder, New Hope Group, which currently holds 34.28% of the company [5][38]. - The privatization plan includes a share exchange and cash payment, with a total value of HKD 80 per share, indicating a 12.8% upside from the closing price on November 28, 2025 [5][40]. Natural Gas Business - The company’s retail gas volume is projected to reach 262 billion cubic meters in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 4.2% [5][48]. - The gas connection business has seen a decline in new residential connections, dropping from 2.622 million in 2021 to 1.617 million in 2024, but the impact on overall revenue is manageable compared to peers [5][74]. Growth Opportunities - The company is expanding its diversified energy and smart home businesses, with the smart home segment expected to grow at a CAGR of 22.7% from 2020 to 2024 [5][8]. - The company has a robust pipeline of projects in the energy sector, with a total installed capacity of 6.9 GW and 1.6 GW under construction as of September 2025 [5][8]. Market Position - The company’s market capitalization is approximately HKD 80.284 billion, with a debt-to-asset ratio of 50.52% as of mid-2025, indicating a stable financial position [2][4]. - The company’s price-to-earnings ratio is projected to be 12, 11, and 10 times for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, which is competitive compared to peers [6].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the polyolefin industry is neutral on a single - side basis [2][12] Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2026, the growth rate of polyolefin capacity expansion will slow down, especially in the first half of the year when there will be a new - production vacuum period. The first half of the year will focus on digesting the existing high inventory of polyolefins. However, the demand support before the Spring Festival is weak, and the inventory is expected to remain at a high level. It is recommended to maintain the reverse spread strategy for the 01 - 05 month inter - period spread. In March, as the "Golden March" peak season, polyolefin demand may seasonally recover, and the inventory is expected to start the destocking process. The annual strategy recommends the positive spread strategy for L05 - 09 and PP05 - 09 inter - period spreads. In 2026, the new PE production will mainly be non - standard HDPE, and the proportion of standard linear production is relatively low. It is recommended to short non - standard products and long standard linear products to narrow the non - standard price spread [2][12] Summary According to the Directory Market News and Important Data - **New production**: In 2026, the total new PE capacity will be 4.74 million tons per year, with a capacity growth rate of 11.9%, which is slower than in 2025. Most of the new production will be concentrated in the second half of the year, and only BASF's 500,000 - ton FDPE device will be put into production in the first half. For PP, the new capacity in 2026 will be 4.4 million tons per year, with a capacity growth rate of 8.8%, significantly slower than in 2025, and the new production will mainly be concentrated in Q3 - Q4 [7] - **Inventory**: After the "Golden September and Silver October" peak season, the polyolefin inventory has not been effectively destocked and remains at a high level. In 2026, especially in the first half of the year, the focus will be on digesting the existing high inventory. But before the Spring Festival, the demand is weak, and the inventory is expected to remain high until March [7] Market Analysis - **Production in 2025**: From January to October 2025, the total domestic polyethylene production was 26.195 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 14%. The total domestic polypropylene production was 31.86 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 11%, with the cumulative year - on - year increase in drawn wire production being 8% [8] - **Demand in 2025**: From January to October 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of plastic product output was 0.5%, with the main growth coming from industries such as automobiles, home appliances, and express delivery. The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of plastic product export value was - 1.0%, and the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of primary - shaped plastic import volume was - 7.6%. The downstream demand for PE and PP is generally weak [9] Polyolefin Market Review and Basis Structure - **PE market**: The plastic main contract shows the trend of the main contract, basis, and inter - period spread from 2023 to 2025 [19] - **PP market**: The domestic polypropylene market in 2025 showed a trend of continuous decline followed by low - level oscillation. It can be divided into three stages: the decline stage from January to May, the short - term support stage from June to August, and the low - level oscillation stage from September to the end of the year [22][23] Polyolefin Capacity Expansion - **2026 China's polyolefin production rhythm**: The production rhythm of polyolefins in China will slow down in 2026, especially in the first half of the year. The new PE capacity in 2026 is 4.74 million tons per year, and the new PP capacity is 4.4 million tons per year [27][33] - **2025 overseas polyolefin production**: In 2025, the total overseas new polyethylene capacity was 2.382 million tons, and there was an expected 1.85 - million - ton PP capacity expansion, with 600,000 tons in India already realized [35][38] Polyolefin Maintenance - **PE maintenance by process**: In 2025, the overall PE device maintenance volume remained high. Oil - based and alkane - based maintenance volumes were relatively large, while coal - based maintenance volume was similar to the same period [41] - **PP maintenance by process**: In 2025, the PP device maintenance volume continued to be high. Oil - based and PDH - based maintenance volumes were higher than the same period, while coal - based maintenance volume changed little [44] - **Polyolefin operating rate forecast**: The PE operating rate is expected to recover, and the PP operating rate is also expected to increase, but attention should be paid to the raw material supply and profit of PDH devices [53] Polyolefin Domestic Supply and Import - Export - **Domestic polyolefin production**: In 2025, the monthly PE output exceeded 2.6 million tons, and from January to October, the total production was 26.195 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 14%. The total domestic polypropylene production from January to October was 31.86 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 11% [63] - **Polyolefin production profit and operating rate**: In 2025, the polyolefin production profit was mainly affected by raw material prices, and the operating rate was generally low. The operating rate of alkane - based PE and PP devices was affected by Sino - US trade conflicts [68] - **Polyolefin non - standard price spread performance**: In 2025, the LLDPE operating rate increased significantly, and the non - standard price spread of PE is expected to narrow in 2026. The PP non - standard price spread showed a trend of narrowing and then rising [77] - **Polyolefin import - export situation**: From January to October 2025, China's cumulative polyethylene imports decreased by 3% year - on - year, and cumulative polypropylene imports decreased by 8% year - on - year. The PE external dependence is decreasing, and PP is gradually changing to an export - oriented product [95] - **Polyolefin domestic - foreign price spread**: In 2025, the LLDPE import window was mostly closed, and the export window was also closed. The PP import and export windows were mainly closed, but the Southeast Asian PP demand showed a slight recovery [103] Polyolefin Demand and Inventory - **Polyolefin downstream demand**: From January to October 2025, the domestic plastic product demand increased slightly, but the external demand was weak. The downstream demand for PE and PP was generally insufficient, waiting for policy - driven stimulation [125] - **Polyolefin inventory**: In 2025, the polyolefin inventory remained high. In 2026, especially in the first half of the year, the focus will be on digesting the high inventory, and the inventory is expected to start destocking in March [155][157]

Core Insights - The urgent need for the renovation of aging gas pipelines in China is highlighted, with nearly 100,000 kilometers of pipelines showing varying degrees of aging, some exceeding 20 years in operation [1][2] - The government has set a target to complete the renovation of approximately 100,000 kilometers of old pipelines by the end of 2025, emphasizing the importance of safety for millions of urban residents [1][2] - Companies are facing significant financial pressures to fund these renovations, with around 70% of the costs needing to be self-raised by enterprises [2][3] Group 1: Renovation Efforts - Fuzhou's Fuda Yiyuan community completed a 5,600-meter gas pipeline renovation involving 24 buildings and 1,021 households [1] - Shanghai completed over 700 kilometers of gas pipeline renovations last year and plans to complete at least 750 kilometers this year [2] - China Resources Gas has invested approximately 17 billion yuan in upgrading old pipelines and community gas facilities [2] Group 2: Financial Challenges - Companies like Sheneng Group have raised around 10 billion yuan for pipeline renovations, indicating the high costs involved [2] - The cost of redesigning the gas pipelines in Fuda Yiyuan alone was 1.5 million yuan within two months [2] - The industry is experiencing profit pressure due to factors like "gas price inversion" and declining revenue from gas engineering [3] Group 3: Policy Recommendations - The industry suggests a multi-funding mechanism involving central subsidies, local government support, enterprise contributions, and user payments for the renovation of old gas pipelines [3] - Recommendations include increasing subsidy ratios based on regional differences and simplifying the subsidy application process [3] Group 4: Technological Advancements - Companies are adopting advanced technologies like drones for pipeline inspections, significantly improving efficiency and safety [4] - New smart monitoring systems are being implemented to continuously track pipeline pressure and detect potential hazards [4]

Core Insights - The event "Beautiful Service New Quality Development" held by China Resources Gas in Fuzhou showcased the company's innovative practices in customer service, safety production, and digital transformation [1][2] - Chairman Yang Ping emphasized the commitment to a customer-centric approach and the importance of high-quality development driven by internal motivation [1] - The company aims to strengthen its foundation of "Beautiful Service" while embracing "New Quality Development" to enhance customer experience and accelerate digital transformation [1] Business Overview - China Resources Gas has integrated into the urban gas construction in Fujian, with a mission to "serve the people and empower cities," and has developed the "Fuqig Brother" brand deeply rooted in public service [2] - The Fujian region's total assets amount to 7.132 billion, with a total gas pipeline length exceeding 10,100 kilometers, serving a cumulative total of 2.3251 million residential users [2] - The Xiamen company has established the "Blue Flame Guardian" party member commando team to enhance service efficiency and quality, particularly in old community renovations and emergency response [2] - The customer service efficiency and quality of the Xiamen company have improved significantly, with the "gas availability" indicator ranking first in the province [2] Event Structure - The open day included various formats such as discussions, roundtable forums, and on-site visits to provide a comprehensive understanding of China Resources Gas's exploration and practices in the energy service sector [1][2] - In addition to the main venue in Fuzhou, the event featured 14 local sub-venues across the country to engage more media and the public [2]

Core Viewpoint - The event "Beautiful Service New Quality Development" held by China Resources Gas in Fuzhou highlighted the company's commitment to customer-centric service and its ongoing digital transformation in the energy sector [2][3]. Group 1: Company Initiatives and Achievements - China Resources Gas emphasizes a customer-centric approach, aiming for high-quality development through innovative practices in customer service, safety production, and digital transformation [2]. - The Fujian region has seen significant growth, with total assets reaching 7.132 billion and a gas pipeline network exceeding 10,100 kilometers, serving over 2.325 million residential users [2]. - The company has implemented the "Gas Steward" grid service model to enhance service efficiency, providing a one-stop service experience for users [3]. Group 2: Safety and Infrastructure Improvements - Safety remains a top priority, with China Resources Gas establishing a comprehensive safety system from pipeline installation to user gas consumption, supported by a professional team of over 10,000 safety inspectors [3]. - The company has invested approximately 17 billion to upgrade old pipelines and gas facilities, addressing historical safety risks [3]. - In Fuzhou, the company is undertaking significant infrastructure upgrades, including the replacement of indoor gas pipes with outdoor installations and smart meters, benefiting 1,021 households [4]. Group 3: Technological Advancements - The integration of data and AI technologies is transforming the gas industry, enhancing service models and operational processes [5]. - The use of drones for intelligent inspections has improved safety monitoring, with capabilities for leak detection and risk identification [6]. - The "AI Eagle Eye Guardian Platform" has been developed to provide real-time monitoring and alerts for construction violations, significantly increasing safety oversight efficiency [6]. Group 4: Future Directions - China Resources Gas aims to continue its commitment to "Beautiful Service New Quality Development," focusing on providing smarter, more efficient, and safer gas experiences for users [6].

Core Viewpoint - Bank of America Securities reports that China Resources Gas (01193) initiated share buybacks on October 20 and 21, purchasing 672,000 shares and 1.1 million shares, representing 0.03% and 0.05% of issued shares respectively, with the motivation behind the buyback still unclear [1] Financial Performance - The company raised its earnings per share forecasts for 2025 and 2026 by 1.5% and 1% respectively, reflecting stronger industrial gas demand [1] - The target price was increased from HKD 21 to HKD 22.5, maintaining a "Neutral" rating due to slightly high valuations, but a 4.6% dividend yield combined with buyback benefits of approximately 3% is expected to support the stock price, especially with a more favorable base in the second half of the year [1] Sales and Revenue - In the first ten months of the year, the company's natural gas sales increased by 0.6% year-on-year, primarily driven by improved performance in October [1] - Industrial gas volume rose by 0.8% year-on-year, attributed to colder winter conditions; however, commercial gas volume remained weak, declining by 3% year-on-year, although a mild growth was recorded in October [1] - The unit gross profit increased by 1 RMB cent year-on-year, reaching between 0.56 and 0.57 RMB [1] - Connection volumes maintained a year-on-year decline of 16%, while comprehensive service revenue saw an expanded decline of 14%, and comprehensive energy revenue growth narrowed to 8% [1]

Core Viewpoint - Bank of America Securities reports that China Resources Gas initiated share buybacks last Thursday and Friday, repurchasing 672,000 shares and 1.1 million shares, representing 0.03% and 0.05% of the issued shares, respectively, with the motivation behind the buybacks still unclear [1] Group 1: Company Performance - In the first ten months of the year, the company's natural gas sales increased by 0.6% year-on-year, primarily driven by improved performance in October [1] Group 2: Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The bank raised the earnings per share forecasts for 2025 and 2026 by 1.5% and 1%, respectively, reflecting stronger industrial gas demand [1] - The target price was increased from HKD 21 to HKD 22.5, maintaining a "neutral" rating due to slightly high valuations, but a 4.6% dividend yield combined with a buyback yield of approximately 3% is expected to support the stock price, especially with a more favorable base in the second half of the year [1]

Core Insights - The gas pipeline industry is crucial for ensuring the safe and stable supply of gas, with recent government policies aimed at enhancing safety and operational efficiency [1][5][6] - During the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, over 700,000 kilometers of underground pipelines will be constructed or renovated, with an expected investment exceeding 5 trillion yuan, highlighting the commitment to upgrading gas networks [1][7][10] - The transition towards natural gas as the primary clean energy source is evident, with a significant increase in natural gas supply and a decline in artificial gas and liquefied petroleum gas [1][10][11] Industry Overview - Gas pipelines are defined as systems used for transporting gas, including natural gas, artificial gas, and liquefied petroleum gas, along with associated facilities [2][3] - The industry is characterized by its need for tightness, pressure resistance, and corrosion resistance [2] Policy Landscape - A series of national policies have been introduced to improve the safety and efficiency of gas pipelines, including plans for the renovation of aging infrastructure [5][6][7] - The focus is on eliminating outdated materials, implementing smart monitoring systems, and enhancing safety measures in urban areas [7][10] Industry Chain - The gas pipeline industry chain includes upstream gas resource exploration, midstream pipeline manufacturing and construction, and downstream distribution to end-users [8][9] - Major players in the industry include state-owned enterprises and specialized manufacturers, with a growing emphasis on digital technologies to enhance operational efficiency [9] Current Development Status - The demand for urban gas is increasing due to urbanization, with the national gas penetration rate rising from 94.57% in 2014 to 98.64% in 2024 [10] - The total supply of natural gas is projected to grow significantly, indicating a shift towards cleaner energy sources [10][11] Future Trends - The gas pipeline industry is expected to undergo a transformation towards smart, efficient, and integrated operations, leveraging advanced technologies for real-time monitoring and predictive maintenance [12][13] - The "National Unified Network" strategy will enhance system efficiency and resource allocation across regions [14] - The industry is exploring multi-energy integration, including the transportation of hydrogen and other green mediums, indicating a shift in the role of gas companies towards comprehensive energy service providers [15]