Sales Performance - China Jinmao Holdings Group reported a signed sales amount of RMB 98,255 million for 2024, a decrease of 30.4% from RMB 141,200 million in 2023[10]. - Revenue for 2024 was RMB 59,053 million, a decrease of 18% compared to RMB 72,403.6 million in 2023[23]. - The company achieved a total contracted sales amount of approximately RMB 98.3 billion in 2024, maintaining its industry position[31]. - The company ranked 12th in sales scale within the industry in 2024, improving by one position from 2023, maintaining its presence in the first tier of the industry[64]. Financial Performance - Gross profit for 2024 was RMB 8,596.9 million, down 5% from RMB 9,021.5 million in 2023[23]. - The profit attributable to the owners of the company was RMB 1,064.8 million, a significant recovery from a loss of RMB 6,896.6 million in 2023, representing a 115% change[23]. - Total assets increased by 1% to RMB 409,256.4 million from RMB 407,119.2 million in 2023[23]. - The equity attributable to the owners of the company rose by 36% to RMB 53,575.1 million from RMB 39,291.3 million in 2023[23]. - Basic earnings per share improved to RMB 5.19 from a loss of RMB 51.62 in 2023, marking a 110% increase[23]. Property Development and Acquisitions - The company successfully acquired multiple land parcels in key cities, including Chengdu, Beijing, and Xi'an throughout 2024, enhancing its land reserves[14][17]. - The company holds a total of 397 projects in urban operations, property development, commercial leasing, and hotel management, with an undeveloped area of approximately 77.96 million square meters[57]. - The company is actively pursuing new projects, including the Beijing Jinmao project with a saleable area of 101,986 square meters, expected to complete in 2026[78]. Operational Efficiency and Strategy - The company aims to enhance operational efficiency in its core development and holding businesses, focusing on high-quality real estate development and premium services[8]. - The company plans to continue its strategy of "activating stock and optimizing increment" to enhance competitiveness and achieve higher quality transformation[27][34]. - The company is strategically positioned to withstand cyclical fluctuations in the market by developing a new model for growth[35]. Hotel and Rental Income - Hotel operating income reached RMB 2,080.4 million in 2024, an increase of 22.5% compared to RMB 1,698.6 million in 2023[10]. - Rental income from major investment properties was RMB 1,697.3 million in 2024, down from RMB 1,802.3 million in 2023, reflecting a decline of 5.8%[10]. - The company is focusing on optimizing hotel operations and enhancing service capabilities to improve performance amid a competitive market[64]. Market Trends and Challenges - In 2024, the real estate market is expected to see a 12.9% decrease in newly sold residential property area and a 17.1% decline in sales value compared to the previous year[61]. - The top 100 real estate companies in China experienced a 28.1% year-on-year decrease in cumulative sales scale in 2024, with the sales threshold for the top 10 companies dropping by 39.3%[62]. - The hotel market in China is facing a downward trend, with average occupancy rates and room prices declining, although first-tier and new first-tier cities show resilience[62]. Sustainability and Innovation - The company has received multiple awards, including the "Outstanding Corporate Social Responsibility Enterprise" and "ESG Model Enterprise" in 2024, highlighting its commitment to sustainability[39][40]. - The company successfully obtained TÜV certification for three products developed by its green construction division, demonstrating its focus on quality and innovation[52]. - The company is enhancing its core competitiveness by building a technological moat around its main business, focusing on "green health" and "smart technology"[35]. Property and Project Details - The total area of commercial and retail projects held by the company is 794,373 square meters[66]. - The company has significant residential projects in Guangzhou, with a total saleable area of 1,261,134 square meters across multiple developments[69]. - The company is expanding its presence in Ningbo with the Ningbo Jin Mao Jiayue Hotel, expected to be completed in 2024, featuring 260 rooms[68]. Customer Engagement and Market Demand - The Hangzhou Shangcheng Jinmao Mansion project achieved a 100% sales rate across all four openings, demonstrating strong demand in the high-end real estate market[109]. - The Nanjing Jinmao Lanhui City became one of the most vibrant shopping centers in Nanjing, ranking top in multiple online sales channels in the Gulou District[156]. - The company is focusing on hotel performance growth by dynamically optimizing operational strategies and enhancing service capabilities in a competitive market[180].

点击注册小程序 2025年1-2月，TOP50房企新增土储价值1,941亿元，累计同比+45.0%，前三名为华润置地（318亿元）、 中国金茂（189亿元）、保利发展（153亿元）；TOP50房企新增土储面积1,908万平，累计同比-6.8%，前 三名为华润置地（94万平）、海泰置业（87万平）、保利发展（75万平）。 特别申明： 本订阅号中所涉及的证券研究信息由光大证券研究所编写，仅面向光大证券专业投资者客户，用作新媒体形势下研究 信息和研究观点的沟通交流。非光大证券专业投资者客户，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。本订阅号 难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不便，敬请谅解。光大证券研究所不会因关注、收到或阅读本订阅号推送内容而视相 关人员为光大证券的客户。 报告摘要 2025年1-2月，百城宅地成交建面同比+7.8%，成交楼面均价同比+20.4% 2025年1-2月，百城住宅类用地成交建面为2,947万平，累计同比+7.8%；成交楼面均价为7,159元/平方米， 同比+20.4%。分能级城市来看，1-2月， 一线城市：供应住宅类用地建面为109万平，累计同比-34.3%；成交建面为169万平，累计同比- ...

Macro Economic Insights - The economic impact of fertility subsidies is significant, with potential annual consumption increase of 0.22%-0.25% and GDP uplift of 0.08%-0.09% from 2025 to 2029 if the subsidy scheme is widely adopted [6][7][10] - Industrial production remains strong, with a slight decline but still maintaining a high growth rate, while service sector growth has slowed [8][9] Retail Industry - In January-February 2025, the total retail sales reached 83,731 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 4.0%, indicating a mild recovery in consumption [26][27] - Online retail sales grew by 7.3%, with physical goods online sales accounting for 22.3% of total retail sales [28] - Investment recommendations focus on high-quality brands in sectors like traditional retail, gold and jewelry, cosmetics, and medical aesthetics [29] Real Estate Sector - In January-February 2025, the sales area of commercial housing decreased by 5.1% year-on-year, but the decline is narrowing compared to previous years [31][32] - New housing starts are down by 29.6% year-on-year, indicating ongoing challenges in the market [32][33] - Investment suggestions include strong credit real estate companies and those benefiting from both residential and commercial property recovery [34] Food and Beverage Sector - Online sales of liquor increased by 32.2% in February 2025, with a notable rise in the concentration of leading brands [35][36] - The snack food sector saw a decline in online sales, but there is still potential for growth in the overall market [39] - Investment focus is on liquor companies with strong fundamentals and market share potential, as well as the snack food sector's growth prospects [39] Technology and Automotive Sector - The smart driving business of the company is experiencing rapid growth, with a compound annual growth rate of 42.38% from 2021 to 2024 [50][51] - The company has successfully expanded its overseas market presence, securing significant orders from well-known international brands [52]

Investment Ratings - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for 招商蛇口 (001979.SZ) due to its focus on core cities and stable sales ranking [41][42]. Core Insights - The macroeconomic environment shows a moderate recovery in social consumption, with a year-on-year increase of 4.0% in retail sales for January-February 2025, indicating a positive trend in consumer spending [26]. - The real estate sector is experiencing a narrowing decline in sales, with a reported decrease of 5.1% in sales area for January-February 2025, compared to a 12.9% decline for the entire year of 2024 [31]. - The food and beverage industry is witnessing a rebound in online sales for liquor, with a 32.2% year-on-year increase in sales for February 2025, highlighting a recovery in consumer preferences [35]. Summary by Sections Macroeconomic Overview - The report discusses the economic impact of fertility subsidies, estimating that if implemented nationwide, these subsidies could lead to an increase in newborns by approximately 32,000 to 76,000 in the first year, potentially boosting GDP by 0.08%-0.09% annually [6][7]. Retail Sector - The retail sector's total sales reached 83,731 billion yuan in January-February 2025, with urban and rural sales growing by 3.8% and 4.6% respectively [26][27]. - Online retail sales grew by 7.3%, with physical goods sales increasing by 5.0%, indicating a shift towards e-commerce [28]. Real Estate Sector - The report notes that the sales area for commercial housing decreased by 5.1% year-on-year, but the decline is less severe than in previous periods, suggesting a potential stabilization in the market [31][32]. - New housing starts fell by 29.6% year-on-year, indicating ongoing challenges in the construction sector [32][33]. Food and Beverage Sector - The online sales of liquor reached 1.62 billion yuan in February 2025, with a significant increase in average prices, suggesting a shift towards premium products [35][36]. - The report highlights a decline in online sales for snack foods, with a 17.3% year-on-year decrease, indicating challenges in this segment [37]. Company-Specific Insights - 招商蛇口 reported a revenue increase of 2.25% year-on-year, but net profit decreased by 36.09% due to high land cost impairments [41][42]. - 丘钛科技 (01478.HK) has revised its profit forecast upwards for 2025, anticipating a net profit of 670 million yuan, driven by improvements in gross margins and operational efficiencies [46][47]. - 德赛西威 (002920.SZ) achieved a revenue growth of 26.06% year-on-year, with a strong performance in its intelligent driving segment, indicating robust demand in the automotive sector [50][51].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the real estate sector [6] Core Viewpoints - In the first two months of 2025, the real estate market in key cities showed an increase in both transaction volume and prices, indicating a positive outlook for March [4] - The report highlights the impact of various supportive policies introduced in 2024, which have led to a noticeable increase in market activity in the fourth quarter of 2024 [4] - The report suggests focusing on leading real estate companies with strong development capabilities and those involved in urban renewal projects [4] Summary by Sections New Housing Market - In January and February 2025, the transaction area of new residential properties in the 30 key cities increased by 6% year-on-year, with an average price increase of 7% [1] - In February 2025, the transaction area reached 821 million square meters, a year-on-year increase of 22.5% [1] - The average price for new residential properties in the 30 key cities was 23,769 yuan per square meter, up 7.3% year-on-year [1][29] Second-Hand Housing Market - In January and February 2025, the transaction area of second-hand residential properties in 15 key cities increased by 23.1% year-on-year, with a slight price increase of 0.9% [2] - In February 2025, the transaction area for second-hand homes was 999 million square meters, a year-on-year increase of 75.2% [2] - The average price for second-hand homes in the 10 key cities was 24,620 yuan per square meter, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 0.9% [2][78] Key City Performance - In the first two months of 2025, the average transaction price for new homes in Beijing was 54,385 yuan per square meter, up 21.0% year-on-year, while in Shanghai it was 77,682 yuan per square meter, up 15.7% [40] - The average transaction price for second-hand homes in Beijing was 28,202 yuan per square meter, a slight increase of 0.2% year-on-year [87] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on real estate companies that are actively participating in urban renewal and have a strong reputation, such as China Overseas Development and China Merchants Shekou [4] - It also suggests looking into commercial REITs that have a diverse portfolio and strong operational capabilities [4]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the real estate industry is "Positive" (maintained) [2] Core Viewpoints - The sales decline is narrowing, with high transaction activity in major cities, indicating a potential stabilization in the real estate market [6][13] - The decrease in land transaction area is impacting construction confidence, with completion areas still declining year-on-year [7][17] - Developer investment is decreasing due to insufficient sales recovery and new construction expectations [8][18] - There is a marginal improvement in funding for real estate developers, but the willingness of residents to leverage is low [21] Summary by Sections Sales Data and Market Activity - In January-February 2025, national commercial housing sales area was 107 million square meters, down 5.1% year-on-year (compared to a 12.9% decline in 2024), with residential sales area down 3.4% [6][13] - The sales amount for commercial housing was 1.03 trillion yuan, down 2.6% year-on-year (compared to a 17.1% decline in 2024) [6][13] - The average sales price of commercial housing increased by 2.6% year-on-year, but decreased by 3.9% month-on-month [6][13] - High-level cities showed significant sales growth, with first-tier cities up 26.6% and second-tier cities up 9.8% [6][13] Construction and Completion Data - New housing starts in January-February 2025 were 66 million square meters, down 29.6% year-on-year (compared to a 23.0% decline in 2024) [7][17] - The completion area was 88 million square meters, down 15.6% year-on-year (compared to a 27.7% decline in 2024) [7][17] Developer Investment and Funding - Real estate development investment in January-February 2025 was 1.07 trillion yuan, down 9.8% year-on-year (compared to a 10.6% decline in 2024) [8][18] - Funding for real estate developers was 1.56 trillion yuan, down 3.6% year-on-year (compared to a 17.0% decline in 2024) [21] - The decline in personal mortgage loans remains significant, indicating a potential increase in down payment ratios for home purchases [21] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on developers with strong credit in cities with good fundamentals, such as Greentown China, China Overseas Development, and China Jinmao [9][26] - Companies benefiting from both residential and commercial real estate recovery, like New Town Holdings and Longfor Group, are also recommended [9][26] - The second-hand housing market is expected to grow, indicating a promising outlook for real estate after-sales services [9][26]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - New housing transaction area has shown a month-on-month increase, and significant adjustments in Shenzhen's provident fund policy are expected to support housing demand [3] - New housing prices have stabilized with a month-on-month decline remaining unchanged, while first-tier cities have seen a month-on-month increase [5][8] - The second-hand housing price decline has narrowed year-on-year, with the month-on-month decline remaining stable [6][18] Summary by Sections New Housing Price Trends - In February 2025, new housing prices in first, second, and third-tier cities changed by +0.1%, 0.0%, and -0.3% respectively, with an overall month-on-month decline of -0.1% across 70 cities [12] - Year-on-year, new housing prices in first, second, and third-tier cities decreased by -3.0%, -4.7%, and -5.9% respectively, with an overall decline of -5.2% across 70 cities [12][14] Second-Hand Housing Price Trends - In February 2025, second-hand housing prices across 70 cities saw a month-on-month decline of -0.3%, with first, second, and third-tier cities changing by -0.1%, -0.4%, and -0.4% respectively [6][20] - Year-on-year, second-hand housing prices decreased by -7.5% across 70 cities, with first, second, and third-tier cities showing declines of -4.9%, -7.4%, and -8.0% respectively [18][21] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies with strong credit profiles that can capture improving customer demand, such as Greentown China, China Overseas Development, and China Merchants Shekou [8] - Companies benefiting from both residential and commercial real estate recovery, such as New City Holdings and Longfor Group, are also recommended [8] - The report highlights the growing potential of the real estate after-service market, with companies like Beike-W and I Love My Home being noted [8]

Investment Rating - Industry Rating: Outperform the market (maintained rating) [5] Core Insights - The market heat has objectively increased, primarily driven by improved supply quality. In the first two months of 2025, the total land transaction price reached 257 billion, a year-on-year increase of 29.6%, while the average land transaction price was 9,751 million, up 32.2% year-on-year [10][11] - The trend of "high premium" is expected to continue in the short term, with a consensus forming around "high-speed products." The average premium rates for first-tier and second-tier cities have increased, reflecting a recovery in land market heat [11][12] - Companies with operational leverage and turnover advantages are highlighted as key players. Leading companies in equity investment include China Resources Land, China Jinmao, and Greentown China, with investment intensity exceeding 100% for several firms [12][14] Summary by Sections 1. Market Overview - In the first two months of 2025, land transaction volume in 300 cities decreased by 1.9% year-on-year, while the total land transaction price increased significantly, indicating a shift towards higher quality land supply [10][11] 2. New and Second-hand Housing Market - The new housing market saw a transaction area of 236 million square meters, with a month-on-month decline of 11.98% [4][29] - The second-hand housing market experienced a transaction area of 235 million square meters, with a year-on-year increase of 47.40%, although it also saw a month-on-month decline [4][29] 3. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on non-state-owned enterprises benefiting from debt relief and policy support, as well as leading companies with product advantages and regional firms with improving market shares [14]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The new housing provident fund policy in Shenzhen significantly increases the maximum loan amounts and allows for multiple purchase incentives, indicating a government signal of policy relaxation [5][8] - The sales in the real estate market have shown initial stabilization in the first two months of 2025, supported by more proactive fiscal policies and moderately loose monetary policies [8] Summary by Sections Housing Provident Fund Policy Changes - The maximum loan amount for individuals has been raised from 500,000 yuan to 600,000 yuan, and for families from 900,000 yuan to 1,100,000 yuan [6] - The floating ratio for first-time home purchases has increased from 20% to 40%, and for families with two or more children, it has risen from 10% to 50% [6] - The maximum cumulative floating ratio can reach 110%, allowing individuals to borrow up to 1,260,000 yuan and families up to 2,310,000 yuan [6] Interest Subsidies - The interest subsidy for withdrawing provident fund after one year of contribution has been significantly increased, with rates now at 10% for 1-5 years, 15% for 5-10 years, and 20% for over 10 years [7] - This adjustment nearly doubles the previous subsidy rates, enhancing the value of contributing to the housing provident fund [7] Investment Recommendations - Recommended companies include those with strong credit and good urban fundamentals, such as Greentown China, China Merchants Shekou, and China Overseas Development [8] - Companies benefiting from both real estate recovery and consumer promotion policies include New Town Holdings and Longfor Group [8] - The second-hand housing transaction scale and penetration rate are expected to continue rising, indicating a promising outlook for the real estate after-service market [8]

行 业 及 产 业 证 券 研 究 证券分析师 袁豪 A0230520120001 yuanhao@swsresearch.com 曹曼 A0230520120003 caoman@swsresearch.com 联系人 曹曼 (8621)23297818× caoman@swsresearch.com 两部门发文落实专项债收地，贝壳获纳港股通 看好 ——地产及物管行业周报（2025/03/08-2025/03/14） 房地产 2025 年 03 月 16 日 行 业 研 究 / 行 本期投资提示： 业 点 评 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 报 告 ⚫ 地产行业数据：二手成交周环比略降，新房成交周环比上升、成交推盘比下降。上周 （25/3/8-25/3/14）34 个重点城市新房合计成交 227 万平米，环比+5%；其中，一二 线环比+3%、三四线环比+23%；3 月一手房月成交同比+44%，较 2 月-28.5pct；其 中，一二线同比+4%、三四线同比-26%，分别较 2 月-8pct 和+16pct。上周 13 个重 点城市二手房成交 145 ...