研究报告 Research Report 17 Aug 2025 中国 & 香港 & 美国可选消费 China (A-share) & Hong Kong & US Discretionary 可选消费 W33 周度趋势解析：海外消费表现优异，新消费主题股价稳健回暖 Week 33 Discretionary Trends: Overseas Consumption Performs Well, New Consumption- Themed Stocks Steadily Recover [Table_yemei1] 观点聚焦 Investment Focus | [Table_Info] | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 股票名称 | 评级 | 股票名称 | 评级 | | 耐克 | Outperform 德业股份 | | Outperform | | 美的集团 | Outperform 波司登 | | Outperform | | 京东集团 | Outperform 石头科技 | | Outperform | | 格力电器 | Outperform 永辉超市 | | ...

Investment Rating - Industry Rating: Overweight [1] Core Insights - The launch of the first panoramic drone by Yingshi, the Yingshi A1, is expected to drive industry expansion [1][10] - The consumer drone market in China is projected to exceed 50 billion yuan in 2024, with a compound annual growth rate of approximately 15% from 2025 to 2030, potentially reaching over 120 billion yuan by 2030 [5] - The competitive landscape is dominated by DJI, holding a 70% market share in the global consumer drone market, while the growth rate of the consumer drone industry has slowed from 45% in 2020 to 18% in 2024, indicating a shift towards "stock competition + scenario innovation" [5] Summary by Sections Product Launch - On August 14, Yingshi launched the Yingshi A1 panoramic drone, emphasizing user experience over technical specifications, allowing users to achieve special effects without advanced skills [4][10] - The Yingshi A1 is set to be officially released in January 2026, with its pricing yet to be disclosed [4] Market Dynamics - The entry of new players like Yingshi into the consumer drone market opens new possibilities, addressing existing pain points such as high operational thresholds and limited shooting perspectives [5][10] - The Yingshi A1 aims to fill a gap in the market and stimulate demand, potentially catalyzing further development in the consumer drone sector and the broader intelligent imaging equipment supply chain [10] Competitive Analysis - DJI has established a comprehensive product range with multiple series catering to different market segments, showcasing continuous improvements in key parameters such as sensors, battery life, and obstacle avoidance systems [6] - The Yingshi A1 is designed to compete with DJI's offerings, featuring a lightweight design and innovative functionalities that enhance user engagement and creativity [6][10]

Core Viewpoint - The financing activities of YingShi Network indicate a mixed sentiment among investors, with a notable net sell-off despite some buying activity in recent days [1] Financing Activities - On August 15, YingShi Network had a financing buy amount of 0.10 billion, ranking 1360th in the market, with a financing repayment amount of 0.16 billion, resulting in a net sell of 5.6991 million [1] - Over the last three trading days (August 13-15), the financing buy amounts were 0.20 billion, 0.25 billion, and 0.10 billion respectively [1] Securities Lending - On the same day, the securities lending saw a sell of 0.00 thousand shares, with a net buy of 0.01 thousand shares [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the movements of social security funds in the stock market, particularly their investments in eight stocks on the Sci-Tech Innovation Board, with a total holding of 30.19 million shares valued at 1.364 billion yuan [1] - Social security funds increased their holdings in five stocks, entered one new stock, and reduced their holdings in one stock, while one stock's holding remained unchanged [1] - The stocks with the highest holdings by social security funds include Nanwei Medical and Kaili New Materials, with holdings of 9.1785 million shares and 6.3642 million shares, respectively [1][3] Group 2 - In terms of performance, eight stocks held by social security funds reported year-on-year net profit growth in the first half of the year, with the highest growth seen in Rongzhi Rixin at 14.2355 million yuan, reflecting a staggering increase of 2063.42% [2] - The social security funds' holdings are primarily concentrated in the pharmaceutical and basic chemical industries, with two stocks from each sector appearing on the list [3] - Since July, the average increase in the stocks held by social security funds on the Sci-Tech Innovation Board has been 25.90%, with Dingtong Technology showing the highest cumulative increase of 75.47% [3]

社保基金持仓结构呈现明显特征，在已披露半年报的公司中，社保基金共现身43只个股前十大流通股东名单。调仓动向方面，社保基金新进15股、增持10 股、减持11股，另有7股持股量保持不变。这种分化的操作策略体现了社保基金对不同标的的差异化判断。 新进个股持股比例分析 从持股比例角度观察，社保基金新进股票中持股比例最高的是中触媒，持股量占流通股比例达到3.45%。北鼎股份紧随其后，社保基金持股比例为3.16%。 苏试试验作为获得社保基金家数最多的个股，共有3家社保基金组合出现在前十大流通股东名单中，分别为全国社保基金六零二组合、全国社保基金六零一 组合、全国社保基金五零二组合，合计持股1486.20万股，占流通股比例为2.94%。 新强联、春风动力等个股同样获得社保基金青睐，持股比例分别达到2.08%和1.30%。果麦文化、塔牌集团、恩华药业等个股的社保基金持股比例均超过 1%。从持股数量统计来看，卫星化学成为社保基金新进个股中持股量最多的标的，共持有2016.93万股。苏试试验、中原高速的持股量分别为1486.20万股、 1300.01万股，位列前三位。 这些新进个股涵盖了基础化工、家用电器、社会服务、电力设备、汽 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" [5][22]. Core Views - The report highlights that existing product categories continue to show high growth trends, with 3D printing and lawn mower businesses expected to become new growth engines. Additionally, the stock incentive plan strengthens human capital advantages, leading to a positive outlook for future growth [2][12]. Financial Summary - Total revenue is projected to grow from 17,507 million in 2023 to 46,772 million by 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 20.5% [4][13]. - Net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to increase from 1,615 million in 2023 to 3,907 million in 2027, with a CAGR of 21.1% [4][13]. - Earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to rise from 3.01 yuan in 2023 to 7.29 yuan in 2027 [4][13]. - The return on equity (ROE) is anticipated to improve from 20.2% in 2023 to 28.1% in 2027 [4][13]. Target Price and Valuation - The target price for the company is set at 159 yuan, based on a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 32 times the estimated EPS for 2025 [5][14]. - The report compares the company's valuation with peers in the cross-border e-commerce and electronics sectors, indicating a premium due to the company's innovative product structure and growth potential in 3D printing and lawn mower segments [14][15]. Market Performance - The stock has shown significant price movement, with a 52-week price range of 53.35 to 138.48 yuan and a total market capitalization of 73,990 million [6][12]. - The stock's absolute performance over the last 12 months has increased by 162%, outperforming the market index [10][12]. Product Development and Growth Drivers - The company has made strides in the 3D printing sector, launching the AnkerMake brand and achieving record crowdfunding for its products. The rebranding of AnkerMake to eufyMake is expected to enhance integration within the smart home ecosystem [12][14]. - The lawn mower business is also being developed, with the introduction of a robotic lawn mower that has seen strong initial sales [12][14]. Incentive Plans - A new stock incentive plan was announced, aiming to motivate employees and align their interests with the company's growth targets, with performance metrics tied to revenue growth from 2025 to 2027 [12][14].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive investment outlook for the smart elderly care device industry, driven by technological advancements and increasing demand due to aging population trends [3][10][19]. Core Insights - The smart elderly care device industry in China is rapidly evolving, leveraging AI and IoT technologies to address the needs of the aging population, with significant market growth anticipated [3][19]. - The market is characterized by a high growth rate, with a projected compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 21.2% from 2020 to 2024, reaching a market size of 156.4 billion yuan by 2024 [33][36]. - The industry is supported by strong government policies aimed at promoting smart elderly care solutions, enhancing the overall market environment [11][36]. Summary by Sections Industry Definition - Smart elderly care devices utilize technologies such as AI, IoT, and big data to provide health management, safety monitoring, and daily assistance to the elderly, enhancing their quality of life [4][19]. Industry Characteristics - The industry is experiencing rapid growth, with a significant increase in the number of new elderly care products, reflecting a robust demand driven by an aging population [10][11]. - The industry exhibits a multi-polar regional development pattern, with eastern regions leading in enterprise concentration [12]. Market Dynamics - The market for smart elderly care devices is expanding rapidly, with a notable increase in product registrations and a growing elderly population, particularly those aged 60 and above [10][35]. - The report highlights a strong policy framework supporting the industry, including financial incentives and subsidies for smart elderly care products [11][36]. Development History - The industry has evolved through three phases: the nascent phase (2007-2017), the initiation phase (2017-2020), and the rapid development phase (2021-present), with increasing integration of technology and services [13][17]. Industry Chain Analysis - The industry chain consists of upstream technology suppliers, midstream manufacturers of smart devices, and downstream application scenarios, with a focus on enhancing user experience and product functionality [18][27]. Competitive Landscape - The competitive landscape is characterized by a diverse range of players, from large tech companies to smaller startups, with varying degrees of market share and technological capabilities [44][45]. - The report identifies three tiers of competition, with major tech firms leading the market, followed by mid-sized companies and smaller startups focusing on niche markets [44]. Market Size and Growth Forecast - The smart elderly care device market is projected to grow significantly, with estimates suggesting a market size of over 600 billion yuan by 2024, driven by demographic trends and technological advancements [33][37]. - The report anticipates continued growth in the sector, with a focus on improving product quality and expanding market reach through innovation and collaboration [38].

Core Viewpoint - The report from CICC highlights that as the capabilities of large models continue to enhance, the demand for AI inference computing power is expected to surge, driving growth in AI hardware demand [1] Group 1: AI Investment Directions - The report suggests focusing on three main investment directions in AI: 1) New hardware technologies, with an expected increase in the penetration of cost-effective and energy-efficient AI ASICs, driven by high-performance and low-power demands [2] 2) Domestic production, as the resumption of H20 deliveries and the continuous improvement of the domestic cloud AI chip supply chain are expected to support domestic AI server demand [2] 3) AI applications, where innovations at the terminal level are accelerating, leading to growth in IoT device connectivity and expansion in the communication module market [2] Group 2: Telecommunications Capital Expenditure - Telecom capital expenditures are increasingly leaning towards computing power networks, with a projected 9.1% year-on-year decrease in capital expenditure by the three major operators in 2025, totaling 289.8 billion yuan [2] - The report recommends focusing on opportunities in 5G-A deployment, accelerated 6G technology research, and the growing demand for new types of optical fibers driven by AI in data centers [2] Group 3: Profit Forecast and Valuation - The report maintains profit forecasts, ratings, and target prices for several companies, including Zhongji Xuchuang, Broadcom, Guangxun Technology, and others [3]

Core Insights - The social security fund has disclosed its stock holdings for the second quarter, appearing in the top ten shareholders of six stocks on the Sci-Tech Innovation Board, with a total holding of 20.43 million shares valued at 1.063 billion yuan [1][2] Group 1: Stock Holdings - The social security fund increased its holdings in four stocks and maintained its position in one stock, while entering one new stock [1] - The stock with the highest holding ratio is Nanwei Medical, accounting for 4.89% of the circulating shares, followed by Zhongchumei at 3.45% [1] - The total market value of the holdings is led by Nanwei Medical at 620 million yuan, followed by Yingshi Network at 136.73 million yuan and Zhongchumei at 92.096 million yuan [1][2] Group 2: Performance Metrics - Among the stocks held by the social security fund, six reported year-on-year net profit growth in the first half of the year, with the highest growth seen in Rongzhi Rixin at 2063.42% [1] - The average increase in the share prices of the stocks held by the social security fund since July is 23.86%, with Dingtong Technology showing the highest cumulative increase of 63.30% [2] - Other notable stock performances include Nanwei Medical and Rongzhi Rixin, which increased by 41.88% and 19.35%, respectively [2]

Core Viewpoint - The stock price of YingShi Network closed at 34.38 yuan on August 12, 2025, reflecting a decrease of 0.46% from the previous trading day, with a trading volume of 1.21 billion yuan [1] Company Overview - YingShi Network focuses on the smart home and Internet of Things (IoT) sectors, with business operations including smart security, smart hardware, and cloud platform services [1] - The company operates within sectors such as home appliances, robotics concepts, and the Shanghai Stock Connect [1] Shareholding and Market Activity - In the second quarter, the social security fund increased its holdings in YingShi Network by 4.338 million shares, representing a quarter-on-quarter growth of 20.9%, with the holdings accounting for 1.06% of the circulating shares and a market value of 137 million yuan [1] - On August 12, the net outflow of main funds from YingShi Network was 1.2457 million yuan, with a cumulative net outflow of 95.3726 million yuan over the past five days [1]