房地产行业 | 证券研究报告 — 行业周报 2025 年 6 月 24 日 强于大市 房地产行业第 25 周周报（2025 年 6 月 14 日-2025 年 6 月 20 日） 本周楼市成交面积同比增速由正转负；多地优化公积金贷款 政策 新房、二手房成交面积环比均涨幅收窄、同比均由正转负。新房库存面积同环比均下降，去化 周期环比上升、同比下降。 核心观点 政策 地方层面，6 月 18 日，江苏省住建厅印发《江苏省住宅工程品质提升行动方案》，旨在提 升住宅工程品质。该方案提出"大力提升住宅工程实体质量、性能品质和居住体验，建设 经得起市场和时间检验的安全、舒适、绿色、智慧的'好房子'。至 2027 年底，行动各项 措施全面落地，长效工作机制形成，工程质量缺陷投诉数量下降 30%以上，住宅工程品质 明显提升"。此外，本周多地优化公积金贷款政策。6 月 17 日，浙江省直公积金中心提取 住房公积金直付购房首付款已正式上线，在杭州市区购房可用公积金个人账户余额直付首 付款。6 月 17 日，温州市公积金管理中心推出购买二手住房提取住房公积金支付首付款政 策。山东淄博 6 月 18 日上调公积金贷款额度，夫妻最高可贷 ...

Core Insights - The Changsha Municipal Bureau of Natural Resources and Planning has issued a land supply plan for 2025, emphasizing the optimization of spatial layout and supply structure while controlling the total supply volume [1][2] - The total supply of state-owned construction land in Changsha is capped at 1,791.16 hectares, with significant allocations in Xiangjiang New Area, Tianxin District, and Wangcheng District [1] - The supply of residential land has decreased to 407.43 hectares, representing a drop from 30.48% to 22.75% of the total supply, while public management and transportation land categories have seen an increase [1][2] Land Supply Structure - The land supply structure has shifted, with a notable reduction in residential land and commercial land, while public service and transportation land categories have increased [1][2] - The plan includes strict adherence to regulatory policies, prohibiting the supply of polluted land for residential development and the practice of platform companies "bottoming out" land acquisition to inflate local government revenue [2] Market Implications - The 2025 land supply plan reflects three major changes: tighter total supply control, optimized supply rhythm with balanced releases of residential land, and stricter regulatory red lines [3] - The optimization of land supply may encourage real estate companies to offer products that better meet market demand, potentially leading to higher quality and lower density residential developments [3] - The recent auction in the core area of the Yanghu District attracted significant interest from nearly 30 well-known real estate companies, indicating strong market recognition of core area value despite industry adjustments [3]

Core Viewpoint - The new real estate policy in Xi'an aims to promote stable and healthy development of the real estate market through comprehensive measures across various sectors, including land transfer, financial support, public housing fund policies, second-hand housing transactions, and convenience services [1][2]. Group 1: Policy Background and Objectives - The policy was introduced to implement the central government's requirements and to restore market confidence, particularly in light of the underwhelming performance of the traditional peak seasons for real estate sales [2]. - Xi'an's housing prices have been declining, with a year-on-year drop of 3% and a month-on-month decrease of 0.06%, marking nine consecutive months of decline [2]. - The measures are designed to control new housing supply, optimize existing stock, and enhance quality, thereby injecting confidence into the market [2]. Group 2: "Good Housing" Construction - The policy encourages developers to adjust building density and enhance green spaces, aiming to create diverse housing products and improve public service facilities around residential areas [3]. - There is a significant demand for upgraded housing types, with acceptance of the fourth-generation housing projects rising from under 20% to nearly 90% among buyers in Xi'an [3]. Group 3: Financial and Cost-Reducing Measures - The land market in Xi'an has shown a trend of "reduced quantity, improved quality," with significant land acquisition by developers, including a notable 40 billion yuan spent by Greentown China on four plots [4]. - New policies allow for quicker land acquisition processes and reduced regulatory burdens, which can lower costs for developers [4][5]. Group 4: Public Housing Fund and Homebuyer Support - The new policy allows for the use of public housing funds for down payments, aligning with practices in other cities and easing the financial burden on homebuyers [6]. - The policy expands access to public housing loans for workers from surrounding areas, attracting new purchasing power to the city [6]. Group 5: Second-Hand Housing Market Activation - The second-hand housing market in Xi'an has seen increased activity, surpassing new housing transactions, and the new measures aim to simplify transaction processes and enhance convenience for buyers [7]. - The policy is expected to play a crucial role in optimizing the real estate market in Xi'an, particularly in the context of second-hand housing [7].

其 他 报 告 2025年06月24日 研究分析师 : 郭子睿 投资咨询资格编号 : S1060520070003 研究分析师 : 陈瑶 投资咨询资格编号 : S1060524120003 研究分析师 : 任书康 投资咨询资格编号 : S1060525050001 研究助理 : 高越 一般证券从业资格编号 : S1060124070014 研究助理 : 胡心怡 一般证券从业资格编号 : S1060124030069 核心观点 : 基金投顾组合总体情况：截至2025年5月末，上线天天基金APP的基 金投顾组合共441只，相比上月末增加11只组合；新增股债中枢型中稳健型组合5 只、进取型和货币型组合各2只、平衡型组合1只，赛道型中的科技组合1只。 投 顾组合业绩表现跟踪：股债中枢型基金，过去一年，各类中枢型组合的收益率中 位数均跑赢同类型FOF产品。月内，进取型、平衡型、稳健型组合的收益率中位 数均跑赢同类型FOF产品。与基准业绩比较，月内，进取型、平衡型、稳健型、 货币型组合的收益率中位数均跑赢基准。 持仓基金仓位跟踪：稳健型投顾组合减 持主动债券基金，增持固收+基金；平衡型投顾组合减持量化基金，增持主动权 益 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the real estate sector [1] Core Views - The new housing transaction area has decreased year-on-year, while many regions continue to relax policies to stimulate the market [1] - The report highlights a significant shift in the real estate market dynamics, indicating a potential turning point in policy effectiveness and market stabilization [8] Summary by Sections 1. Sector Overview - The real estate sector saw a decline of 1.9% last week, while the CSI 300 and Wind A indices decreased by 0.5% and 1.1%, respectively, resulting in excess returns of -1.5% and -0.9% [55] 2. Real Estate Market Conditions - New housing market: In the last week, 36 cities recorded a new housing transaction area of 205.9 million square meters, up 10.0% month-on-month but down 18.5% year-on-year. Cumulatively, from June 1 to June 20, 2025, transactions totaled 527.4 million square meters, down 11.0% year-on-year [13][17] - Second-hand housing market: In 15 cities, the transaction area was 169.5 million square meters, up 1.6% month-on-month and up 1.4% year-on-year. Cumulatively, from June 1 to June 20, 2025, transactions reached 456 million square meters, up 7.0% year-on-year [17] - Inventory and absorption: The cumulative inventory of new homes in 13 cities was 7816.2 million square meters, up 0.3% month-on-month and down 11.6% year-on-year. The absorption cycle for new homes was 20.5 months, with a month-on-month increase of 0.8 months and a year-on-year decrease of 3.2 months [29] 3. Land Market Conditions - From June 16 to June 22, 2025, the land transaction area in 100 cities was 1571.3 million square meters, down 24.1% month-on-month and down 31.8% year-on-year. The average land price was 1732 RMB per square meter, up 32.0% month-on-month and up 30.0% year-on-year [47] - The cumulative land transaction area for 2025 was 49461.5 million square meters, down 5.2% year-on-year [47] 4. Investment Recommendations - Real estate development: Recommended companies include China Resources Land, Poly Developments, and Binjiang Group, with a suggestion to pay attention to Greentown China [8] - Property management: Recommended companies include China Resources Vientiane Life, Greentown Service, Poly Property, and Yuexiu Service [8] - Real estate brokerage: Recommended company is Beike, with a suggestion to pay attention to I Love My Home [9]

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the importance of adapting to market changes and improving sales strategies for real estate companies to achieve stable development and sales recovery [1][2] Group 1: Market Adaptation and Policy Impact - Since the fourth quarter of last year, a series of real estate policies have been implemented, benefiting companies that excel in product quality and flexible sales strategies [1][2] - The concept of "good houses" has been integrated into government work reports, with new standards established to enhance product quality [2][3] Group 2: Product Competitiveness - Leading real estate firms like China Overseas and Vanke are leveraging technology and comprehensive service offerings to enhance the competitiveness of their "good house" products [3][4] - Vanke's projects have shown impressive sales performance, with some achieving over 80% sales rates on launch day [3][4] Group 3: Sales Strategies and Performance - The top ten real estate companies in sales performance for 2024 include Poly Developments, China Overseas, and Greentown China, with significant sales figures reported [5][8] - Companies are adopting flexible marketing strategies, including discounts and enhanced customer engagement, to improve sales efficiency [8][11] Group 4: Customer Targeting and Satisfaction - Real estate firms are focusing on precise customer profiling and enhancing delivery satisfaction to improve sales outcomes [9][10] - Initiatives such as early project delivery and enhanced customer service are being implemented to boost client satisfaction and trust [9][10] Group 5: Policy Coordination and Financial Strategies - Effective policy coordination is crucial for directing funds to valuable projects, with suggestions for improving the synergy between various real estate policies [12][13] - Financial innovations and support for mergers and acquisitions are recommended to enhance cash flow and resource allocation for real estate companies [14]

Policy News - The Ministry of Natural Resources has included 24,000 existing real estate land plots in the "one land, one policy" disposal list to address issues related to the utilization, transfer, and recovery of idle land [1] - Shenzhen has introduced new regulations for urban renewal projects, mandating the construction of affordable housing in unapproved urban renewal units [2] - Hangzhou has launched a service allowing individuals to directly use their housing provident fund for down payments on homes [3] - Changsha has relaxed housing provident fund loan conditions, reducing the required continuous contribution period from 12 months to 6 months and increasing loan limits for families with multiple children [4] Market News - The Loan Prime Rate (LPR) for both 5-year and 1-year terms remains unchanged at 3.5% and 3% respectively [5] - In May, the sales prices of new residential properties in first-tier cities decreased by 0.2% month-on-month, while the year-on-year decline narrowed to 1.7% [6] Real Estate Transactions - Shanghai's fifth land auction of the year concluded with a total transaction amount of approximately 21.257 billion yuan, with significant sales in various districts [7] - A residential land plot in Longhua, Shenzhen, was sold for 1.212 billion yuan with a premium rate of 46.6% [8] - Two residential land plots in Chengdu were sold for a total of 3.837 billion yuan, with a premium rate of 75.7% for one of the plots [9] Company News - China Communications Construction Company is divesting its real estate development business, transferring assets and liabilities to its controlling shareholder for a nominal fee [10] - CIFI Holdings has announced a restructuring plan for approximately 10.061 billion yuan in corporate bonds, offering multiple options for bondholders [11] - China Resources Land has secured a 5.85 billion yuan offshore RMB loan, with a three-year term [12] - China Merchants Shekou has signed a strategic cooperation framework agreement with Beihome to collaborate on real estate development projects [14]

Group 1: Non-Bank Financial Sector - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) is seeking public opinion on the revised "Securities Company Classification Evaluation Regulations," aiming to optimize the classification and regulatory system for securities companies, enhancing their functional roles and professional capabilities [6][7][8] - The revised regulations will integrate business scoring indicators to support the differentiated development of small and medium-sized institutions, promoting a more efficient operational direction [7][8] - Investment recommendations focus on leading securities firms such as CITIC Securities, Huatai Securities, China Galaxy, and CICC, which are expected to benefit from the ongoing reforms in the capital market and securities industry [6][8] Group 2: Bond Market - The new special bond uses include addressing local government arrears to enterprises, with an estimated scale of 760 billion yuan for this year, indicating a shift in the focus of special bonds towards debt repayment [9][11] - The total issuance of special bonds for stabilizing growth is expected to be 5.08 trillion yuan in the second half of the year, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 0.7 trillion yuan [9][11] Group 3: Medical Equipment Sector - The medical equipment update is deepening, with county-level medical communities actively engaging in procurement projects, leading to significant orders for various medical devices [12][13] - The procurement scale for new medical equipment has shown a month-on-month improvement, with January to May 2025 procurement amounts reaching 174 billion yuan, 113 billion yuan, 140 billion yuan, 153 billion yuan, and 134 billion yuan, respectively, indicating a strong recovery trend [13][14] - Investment suggestions include focusing on leading domestic companies in high-end and intelligent medical equipment, such as Mindray Medical, United Imaging, and others [15] Group 4: Real Estate Sector - The real estate sector is expected to maintain a volatile trend, with a recent decline of 1.69% in the sector, underperforming the CSI 300 index [17][18] - Recommendations emphasize focusing on companies with strong inventory structures, land acquisition capabilities, and product strength, which are likely to benefit from market stabilization [18] Group 5: Commodities Sector - Gold prices are expected to maintain a strong trend due to ongoing geopolitical issues, with the COMEX gold futures price recently at 3384.4 USD/oz [20] - Copper and aluminum inventories are at low levels, suggesting potential price increases, with LME copper and aluminum prices at 9660.5 USD/ton and 2561.5 USD/ton, respectively [21][22] - Investment recommendations include focusing on gold, copper, and aluminum sectors, with specific companies highlighted for their strong market positions [22][24]

重点监测 18 城合计成交二手房总套数为 2.5 万套，环比上周增长 1%； 2025 年累计成交总套数为 60.9 万套，累计同比增长 14.6%。 土地供应（6.9-6.15） 2025 年 06 月 22 日 房地产 5 月房价环比走弱 周观点：5 月统计局全国地产数据环比走弱 2025 年 5 月，全国房地产市场底部。单月开发投资同比降幅扩大至- 12.0%（前值-11.3%），1-5 月累计投资 3.62 万亿元，同比下降 10.7%。 新房销售端动能减弱，单月商品房销售面积同比下降 3.3%，降幅较 4 月扩大 1.2 个百分点；单月销售额同比下降 6.0%。价格方面，70 城 新房价格环比下跌 0.2%，跌幅扩大 0.1 个百分点；二手房环比下跌 0.5%，跌幅扩大 0.1 个百分点，仅三城二手房环比上涨（无锡、洛阳、 南充），一线城市全面转跌。 我们认为，5 月房地产数据呈现出销售面积降幅收窄，但房价下行压 力加大的市场特征，在房价，建议关注困境反转类房企：金地集团、 新城控股等；保持拿地强度的龙头招商蛇口、绿城中国、保利发展、 滨江集团等；多元经营稳健发展的地方国企浦东金桥、外高桥等。 销售 ...

行业报告 | 行业研究周报 房地产 证券研究报告 5 月统计局地产指标怎么看？ 行业追踪（2025.6.14-2025.6.20） 1）销售端：2025 年 1-5 月，商品房销售金额同比-3.8%，增速较 1-4 月下降 0.6pct；5 月单月销售金额环比+13.1%，同比-6.0%，降幅较 4 月收窄 0.7pct。1-5 月销售面积同比 -2.9%，增速较 1-4 月下降 0.1pct；5 月单月商品房销售面积环比+10.3%，同比-3.3%， 降幅较 4 月增大 1.2pct。2） 投资端： 2025 年 1-5 月，房地产开发投资累计完成额同比 -10.7%，较 1-4 月下降 0.4pct。5 月单月同比-12.0%，降幅较 4 月增大 0.7pct；新开工 面积累计同比-22.8%，较 1-4 月上升 1.0pct；5 月单月同比-22.8%，较 1-4 月提升 2.9pct； 施工面积累计同比-9.2%,增速较 1-4 月增长 0.5pct；房屋竣工面积累计同比-17.3%，增速 较 1-4 月下降 0.4pct。3） 资金端： 2025 年 1-5 月，到位资金同比-5.3%，较 1-4 ...