商报讯 要说最近几年杭州城市建设发展最快的板块，位于拱墅与余杭交界处的北部新城，绝对排得上 前三。 2018年12月，当华润拿下杭行路TOD综合体地块时，北部新城核心区几乎还是一张巨大的白纸，不论 是商业、住宅、还是各类配套用地，都还在等待出让。 不少计划在北部新城置业的购房者，都把目光瞄准了即将亮相的望舟府。这个项目，位于通运街与杭行 路交界处，距离城北万象城不到1公里，到玉湖公园步行也就十来分钟，更重要的是，它由滨江越秀两 大深耕房企合作开发，在产品力上实现了大幅跃升。 最近，玉湖公园刚刚公示了三期建设方案，玉湖西岸即将完善提升。 根据公示，玉湖三期用地面积76633平方米，其中水域面积26204平方米，建筑面积19235平方米。 三期同样有不少让人惊喜的景点。面积约950平方米的星河揽月挑台，兼具生态观景与活动举办功能， 可以承接文艺演出、发布会等活动。面积约3500平方米的泵道乐园，服务滑板、轮滑等潮流运动，打造 城北潮流运动打卡地。 另外，还规划了2座配套用房，在风格上与玉湖美术馆呼应，可以带来更多更好的公园服务。 更好的玉湖，更好的北部新城，也即将迎来更好的住宅项目。目前，整个北部新城在售只有2个 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights a positive trend in the Hong Kong real estate sector, with most property stocks experiencing gains, indicating a recovery in the market [1] - The Minister of Housing and Urban-Rural Development, Ni Hong, emphasized three key areas for urban renewal this year: the renovation of old urban communities, the promotion of complete community construction, and the transformation of small public spaces in cities [1] - The government aims to stabilize the real estate market by implementing targeted policies and supporting reasonable financing needs of property companies, as well as addressing the housing demands of residents [1] Group 2 - In the secondary housing market, major cities are showing signs of recovery, with first-tier and strong second-tier cities experiencing increased activity [1] - Data from monitoring agencies indicate that the transaction volume in Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen is improving, with Shanghai's second-hand housing listings decreasing for nine consecutive months, leading to a more balanced supply-demand relationship [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights a positive trend in the Hong Kong real estate stocks, with several companies experiencing significant gains, indicating a recovery in the market [1] - The Minister of Housing and Urban-Rural Development, Ni Hong, emphasized three key areas for urban renewal this year: the renovation of old urban communities, the promotion of complete community construction, and the transformation of small public spaces [1] - The government aims to stabilize the real estate market by implementing targeted policies and supporting reasonable financing needs of real estate companies, as well as addressing the housing demands of residents [1] Group 2 - In the secondary housing market, major cities like Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen are showing signs of recovery, with a notable decrease in the number of listings in Shanghai for nine consecutive months, leading to a more balanced supply-demand relationship [1] - Specific stock performance includes China Jinmao rising by 4.4%, Greentown China by 4%, Zhongliang Holdings by over 3%, and New City Development by 1.8%, among others, indicating a general upward trend in the sector [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the real estate development and services sectors [7] Core Insights - The real estate market in 2025 showed signs of stabilization, with a reduction in the rate of decline in both supply and demand, although overall sales still decreased year-on-year [1][2] - Structural opportunities exist in core cities and certain second and third-tier cities, with some companies poised to strengthen their competitive advantages [1][50] - The report emphasizes the importance of housing prices as a key indicator for market stabilization, with a focus on observing signals of price stabilization [3][32] Summary by Sections New Homes - In 2025, the total sales area of new homes was 880 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 9%, but the decline was less severe than in 2024 [11] - The number of new homes sold in 60 sample cities fell by 16% year-on-year, a reduction of 5 percentage points compared to 2024 [2] - The inventory of new homes in 80 cities decreased by 5% year-on-year, but the de-stocking period extended to approximately 32 months, the highest level since 2010 [37] Second-Hand Homes - The second-hand home market showed resilience, with total transactions in 2025 reaching approximately 2.39 million units, a slight year-on-year decline of 0.8% [3][26] - The price index for second-hand homes in 70 cities fell by 6.1% year-on-year, but the decline was less than in 2024 [32] - The proportion of second-hand home transactions continued to rise, reaching 66% in 16 key cities, up from 43% in 2021 [31] Cities and Companies - Certain cities, such as Beijing, Shanghai, and Chengdu, showed improvements in both sales volume and prices, indicating potential recovery [4][46] - Leading real estate companies like China Jinmao and China State Construction maintained or increased their market share despite overall market challenges [4][46] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on "three good" real estate stocks characterized by good credit, good cities, and good products, such as China Overseas Development and China Resources Land [5][50] - Companies with strong operational capabilities that can manage cash flow during market adjustments are also highlighted as potential investment opportunities [5][50] - Local Hong Kong real estate firms are expected to benefit from market recovery, along with property management companies with stable cash flows and dividend advantages [5][50]

证 券 研 究 报 告 房地产行业周报（2026 年第 3 周） 首开集团发行 7.5 亿私募债，1 月至今 11 城 推荐（维持） 二手房成交同比增长 19% 行业研究 房地产 2026 年 01 月 21 日 华创证券研究所 证券分析师：单戈 邮箱：shange@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360522110001 证券分析师：许常捷 邮箱：xuchangjie@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360525030002 证券分析师：杨航 邮箱：yanghang@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360525090001 行业基本数据 | | | 占比% | | --- | --- | --- | | 股票家数(只) | 107 | 0.01 | | 总市值(亿元) | 12,199.78 | 0.98 | | 流通市值(亿元) | 11,699.32 | 1.17 | 相对指数表现 | % | 1M | 6M | 12M | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 绝对表现 | 3.7% | 7.2% | 8.4% | | 相对表现 | 0.1% | -9.4% | -15.8% ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a recommendation for the real estate sector, indicating a cautious outlook for investment opportunities [2] Core Insights - The real estate market is experiencing a decline, with the sector index dropping by 3.5%, ranking 30th among 31 industry sectors [8] - New home sales have decreased by 33% year-on-year, while second-hand home sales have decreased by 10% year-on-year [22][26] - The report highlights three main issues in the real estate market: declining new home demand, unresolved inventory issues, and the negative impact of land finance on the economy [33] Summary by Sections Industry Basic Data - The total number of listed companies in the real estate sector is 107, with a total market capitalization of approximately 1,219.98 billion [2] Sales Performance - In the third week, the average daily transaction area for new homes in 20 cities was 21.5 million square meters, a decrease of 1% week-on-week and a 33% decrease year-on-year [22] - The total transaction area for new homes in the same period was 151 million square meters, with a cumulative year-to-date decrease of 4% [22] - For second-hand homes, the average daily transaction area in 11 cities was 29.9 million square meters, also down by 1% week-on-week and 10% year-on-year [26] Financing Trends - Most companies issuing bonds this week were local state-owned enterprises, with notable issuances including a private bond by Shoukai Group at a rate of 3.2% [30][32] Investment Strategy - The report suggests focusing on three areas to find alpha in the real estate sector: precision in land acquisition for developers, stable assets like leading shopping centers, and leading real estate agencies that enhance transaction efficiency [33]

2026年1月17日，由广州市住房和城乡建设局指导，广州市房地产行业协会主办的"2026广州白云好房子 论坛"，与国贸地产&绿城中国联袂钜作的战略作品"云樾和鸣"产品发布会于白云国际会议中心国际会 堂盛大启幕。 这场高规格的行业盛会，不仅宣告了白云新城核心区首个新规项目的诞生，更被视为在全新发展周期 下，对广州高品质人居方向的一次关键性定调。市区两级住建部门、云城街道、嘉禾街道、松州街道、 萧岗经济联合社、媒体、商协会等政商媒界名流云集。数百席位早早座无虚席，场外亦聚集了大量关注 者，共同期待这部"云山流传之作"揭晓。 政企共聚论发展，凝聚"好房子"共识 发布会伊始，广州市住房和城乡建设局房地产业管理处副处长吕逸宏先生在致辞中，为"好房子"的建设 描绘了清晰的战略蓝图。他指出，白云区不仅是坐拥空铁枢纽的"广州门户"，更肩负着将庞大的人流、 物流、信息流转化为驱动城市高质量发展核心动能的时代使命。在此背景下，房地产的转型核心，在于 建设真正以人为本、与城市共生的"好房子"。他强调，这需要政、企、研、媒各界协同，"以人为本、 科技赋能、产城融合"，让住房从安居升级为吸引人才、服务产业、激发区域活力的美好生活载体与 ...

Market Performance - The real estate sector (CITIC) experienced a decline of -3.3% last week, while the CSI 300 and Wind All A indices changed by -0.6% and +0.5% respectively, resulting in excess returns of -2.7% and -3.8%[46] - Among 29 CITIC industry sectors, real estate ranked 26th in performance[46] New Housing Market - New home sales increased by 0.6% week-on-week but decreased by 36.8% year-on-year during the period from January 10 to January 16, 2026[8] - In major cities, new home transaction areas changed as follows: Beijing +16.3%, Shanghai +1.9%, Guangzhou +18.8%, and Shenzhen -0.6%[8] Second-Hand Housing Market - The transaction area for second-hand homes in 15 cities was 162.3 million square meters, down 1.8% week-on-week and down 8.4% year-on-year[14] - Cumulative transactions from January 1 to January 16, 2026, totaled 331.5 million square meters, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 14.4%[14] Inventory and Absorption - Cumulative new home inventory in 13 cities reached 77.9 million square meters, with a week-on-week change of -0.1% and a year-on-year change of -4.7%[21] - The absorption cycle for new homes in 13 cities is 23.0 months, with a year-on-year increase of 6.6 months[21] Land Market - Land transaction area from January 12 to January 18, 2026, was 11.746 million square meters, down 21.9% week-on-week and down 49.7% year-on-year[38] - The average land price was 700 RMB/square meter, reflecting a week-on-week decrease of 44.4% and a year-on-year decrease of 51.1%[38] Investment Recommendations - Recommended mainland developers include: A-shares: Binjiang Group, China Merchants Shekou; Hong Kong stocks: China Overseas Development, Greentown China, China Resources Land, Jianfa International Group[7] - Suggested light-asset operation companies include: Property management: Greentown Service; Commercial management: China Resources Mixc Life; Leading intermediary platform: Beike-W[7] Risk Factors - Risks include potential underperformance of real estate regulatory policy relaxation, continued industry downturn, and persistent credit risks leading to liquidity deterioration[7]

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The focus is on the real estate industry, specifically the residential development sector, which is adapting to the needs of core cities, housing types, and product strength [1][2]. Key Insights - Demand is consolidating in core cities, providing growth opportunities for real estate companies heavily invested in these areas. In the period from January to November 2025, the transaction value of new homes in first and second-tier cities accounted for 43% of the total, with residential land transaction value at 61%, marking a year-on-year increase of 7 percentage points, the highest level since 2017 [2][3]. - Among 60 tracked real estate companies, the average sales share in 23 key first and second-tier cities was 72%, with an average market share of 1%. Companies with high sales proportions in core cities include: China Resources, Yuexiu, China Overseas, Greentown, Zhenro, China Resources, Jianfa, Poly Real Estate, and Longfor [3]. - Market demand is shifting towards larger, improvement-oriented products, particularly those over 120 square meters. Companies focusing on high-end improvement products are better aligned with market needs. Notable companies in this category include: China Resources, Greentown, China Overseas, Longfor, and Jianfa [3]. - Companies with strong product capabilities are at an advantage under the "good house" logic. Brands like China Resources, China Overseas, Greentown, Jianfa, Yuexiu, and Poly Real Estate have the highest brand premiums, with over 35% of their cities showing a premium rate exceeding 20% [3]. Investment Recommendations - Among mainstream real estate companies, Poly Real Estate, Yuexiu, Zhenro, and Greentown possess two of the three advantages identified. These companies are primarily state-owned or regionally focused [4]. - The current industry still faces significant pressure from macro, micro, and market perspectives, necessitating vigilance against potential market downturns [4][5]. - A policy adjustment is anticipated by the end of Q1 2026, which could help mitigate the ongoing downward spiral if executed effectively. However, until market stabilization is confirmed, the overall real estate sector may struggle to exhibit clear upward trends [6]. - Companies to watch include: China Resources, Longfor, Zhenro, Yuexiu, Jianfa, Poly Real Estate, as well as commercial real estate firms like China Resources Wanjia Life, Swire Properties, Ruian Real Estate, Kerry Properties, Dayuecheng, and Bailian [6]. Risk Factors - Risks include potential delays in policy implementation, continued declines in sales and housing prices, and slower-than-expected recovery of market confidence [7].

政策预期提升，低估值地产板块有布局机会。 地产观点0120：政策预期提升&业绩预期降低，地产板块亦有"春季躁动" 保利发展昨晚发布业绩预减公告，毛利率波动和资产 各行业"春季躁动"中，地产关注春节后的"小阳春"成色，政策面预计个别城市限购优化力度或超预期，配合利率调 整形成政策组合拳，或带动地产基本面逐步企稳。 头部房企业绩预告释放压力，引导市场正视调整。 头部房企业绩预告释放压力，引导市场正视调整。 保利发展昨晚发布业绩预减公告，毛利率波动和资产减值导致利润下滑，通过业绩预告释放压力，同时引导市场 正视房企在行业调整阶段的业绩波动。 积极的政策氛围或带动楼市一季度迎来成色较高的"小阳春"。 推荐基本面优质的头部改善性房企，如绿城中国、建发国际集团、中国金茂、华润置地、滨江集团等；建议关注 估值受房价影响弹性大的标的，如新世界发展、新城控股等。 地产观点0120：政策预期提升&业绩预期降低，地产板块亦有"春季躁动" 政策预期提升，低估值地产板块有布局机会。 各行业"春季躁动"中，地产关注春节后的"小阳春"成色，政策面预计个别城市限购优化力度或超预期，配合利率调 整形成政策组合拳，或带动地产基本面逐步企稳。 ...