1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Shipping companies are trying to raise prices in the second half of October, and attention should be paid to the actual transaction prices during this period [1]. - The valuation of the October contract is becoming clearer, and attention should be paid to Maersk's first - week quotation in the second half of October. The settlement price of the October contract is the arithmetic average of SCFIS on October 13th, 20th, and 27th. The freight rate center in the first half of October has dropped to around $1400/FEU. HPL and CMA have attempted to raise prices in the second half of October. If the price increase in the last week is successful, the final three - phase settlement price will correspond to a spot price of approximately $1450/1450/1950/FEU, equivalent to about 1130 points in SCFIS; if the price increase fails, the final settlement price may be below 1000 points [4]. - The December contract is far from delivery, and trading mainly focuses on the rhythm. Ship companies may adjust supply to keep freight rates high during the fourth - quarter holiday season. However, there are risks such as the bottom of the current freight rate decline and weak demand on the US route. If US - bound ships are redirected to the European route in the fourth quarter, it may put pressure on European route prices. The trading rhythm of the December contract is expected to involve first trading the price - increase expectation, then the actual implementation of the price - increase notice, and repeating this cycle until delivery. Given the frequent rhythm changes, investors can try with a light position [5][6]. - The strategy suggests that the main contract will fluctuate weakly, and for arbitrage, it is advisable to short the October contract [8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Analysis - **Online Quotes**: Different shipping companies have different price trends. For example, Maersk's Shanghai - Rotterdam quotes decreased from Week 40 to Week 41; HPL - SPOT's price increased in the second half of October and the first half of November. Some companies' prices remained stable in the first half of October, while CMA attempted to raise the price for the Shanghai - Antwerp route in the second half of October [1][2]. - **Geopolitical Situation**: Hamas has drafted a letter to US President Trump, requesting a 60 - day cease - fire in exchange for the immediate release of half of the hostages in Gaza. The letter is expected to be delivered this week [2]. 3.2 Container Ship Capacity Supply - **Weekly and Monthly Average Capacity**: The monthly average weekly capacity from China to European base ports was 272,600 TEU in October and 285,200 TEU in November. There were 15 blank sailings in October and 4 blank sailings and 3 TBNs in November [3]. - **Ship Deliveries**: 2025 is a major year for container ship deliveries. As of September 21, 2025, 196 container ships with a total capacity of 1.562 million TEU have been delivered. Among them, 62 ships in the 12,000 - 16,999 TEU range with a total capacity of 935,000 TEU and 8 ships over 17,000 TEU with a total capacity of 176,880 TEU have been delivered [7]. 3.3 Futures and Spot Prices - **Futures Prices**: As of September 22, 2025, the total open interest of all container shipping index European route futures contracts was 85,743 lots, and the single - day trading volume was 65,644 lots. The closing prices of different contracts such as EC2602, EC2604, etc., are provided [7]. - **Spot Prices**: On September 19, 2025, the SCFI (Shanghai - Europe route) price was $1052/TEU, the SCFI (Shanghai - US West route) price was $1636/FEU, and the SCFI (Shanghai - US East) price was $2557/FEU. On September 15, the SCFIS (Shanghai - Europe) was 1254.92 points, and the SCFIS (Shanghai - US West) was 1193.64 points [7]. 3.4 Strategy - **Unilateral Trading**: The main contract is expected to fluctuate weakly. - **Arbitrage**: It is advisable to short the October contract [8].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2) Core Viewpoints of the Report - The EC2510 main contract hit a new low again, closing at 1050.5 points today with a 6% decline [2] - The direct cause of the current decline is the continuous drop in spot - end prices, driven by increasing capacity and relatively weak supply [4] - In the short - term, the downward trend of spot prices remains strong, but the situation may improve after a period. The year - end peak - season price increase this year may be more conservative than last year [6] 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Today's Market - The EC2510 main contract hit a new low, closing at 1050.5 points with a 6% decline [2] Trading Logic - The direct cause of the decline is the continuous drop in spot - end prices. Most Maersk 40GP quotes are in the range of 1400 - 1680 dollars/TEU, and other airlines' quotes are mostly 1600 - 1700 dollars/TEU, about 300 - 400 dollars/TEU lower than a week ago [4] - The overall capacity of the European line is 505,000, a year - on - year increase of 7.8%, showing an over - supply situation. Although the suspension of flights from wk40 - 42 this year is similar to last year, the overall capacity base is significantly higher [4] Fundamental Analysis - As of September 19, the future 6 - week freight quotes from Shanghai to European basic ports vary among different airlines. For example, Maersk's quotes are 840 - 1351 dollars/FEU and 1400 - 2162 dollars/FEU [5] - As of September 19, the global container total capacity is 33.05 million TEU, a 7.5% increase compared to the same period last year. The eurozone's August composite PMI is 51, and the US August manufacturing PMI is 48.7 [5] - On the demand side, the European economy recovers slowly. Affected by the energy crisis and high inflation, consumer confidence is low, and shipping orders have decreased significantly [5] Future Outlook - In the short - term, the downward trend of spot prices is still strong, but the situation may improve after a period. The year - end peak - season price increase this year may be more conservative than last year, and investors will be more cautious [6] - Investors should closely monitor booking situations and possible price - increase announcements from airlines. In the short - term, consider 12 - 10 spread arbitrage, and in the medium - term, consider the opportunity of the 12 - contract bottom - fishing rebound [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the content about the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The freight rate center continued to decline in the first half of October, and HPL attempted to raise the price in the second half of the month. For the October contract, it is relatively safe to allocate short positions, but the key lies in the downward space. The uncertainty lies in the quotes for the second half of October. If HPL's price increase is successful, the estimated ceiling of the final delivery settlement price of the October contract is likely to be around 1100 points; otherwise, it may be close to 1000 points [4]. - For the December contract, the pattern of peak and off - peak seasons still exists. As the freight rate bottom becomes clearer, long positions can be gradually allocated to trade the expected price increases by shipping companies in November and December. However, due to the current large premium of the December contract futures price over the spot price, investors should take long positions in the December contract with a light position [6]. - The main contract is expected to fluctuate weakly. For arbitrage, short the October contract when the price is high [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Analysis - **Online Quotes**: Different shipping alliances and companies have different price trends. For example, in the Gemini Cooperation, Maersk's Shanghai - Rotterdam quotes decreased from WEEK39 to WEEK41; HPL - SPOT tried to raise the price in the second half of October. In the MSC + Premier Alliance, MSC and ONE's prices remained stable in the first half of October compared to the second half of September, and YML's price decreased [1]. - **Geopolitical Situation**: Israel launched a large - scale ground offensive in the Gaza Strip, and Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu called for the evacuation of Palestinians from Gaza City, with nearly 400,000 people having left so far [2]. - **Capacity and Empty Sailing**: In October, the monthly average weekly capacity to European base ports from China was 272,600 TEU, with 15 empty sailings and 1 TBN. In November, the monthly average weekly capacity was 283,000 TEU, with 4 empty sailings and 6 TBN. HMM announced a winter suspension plan for the PA alliance on the Asia - Europe route [3]. 3.2 Contract Analysis - **October Contract**: It is mainly short - allocated during the off - season. The freight rate center in the first half of October continued to decline to around $1400/FEU (equivalent to about 1000 points on the SCFIS). The delivery settlement price is the arithmetic average of the SCFIS on October 13th, 20th, and 27th. The uncertainty lies in HPL's attempt to raise the price in the second half of October [4]. - **December Contract**: The pattern of peak and off - peak seasons still exists. With the approach of Western holidays in the fourth quarter, shipping companies will adjust supply to keep freight rates high. However, the risk lies in the bottom of the current freight rate decline and the potential impact of transferring US - bound ships to European routes. The current futures price of the December contract has a large premium over the spot price, so long positions should be taken lightly [6]. 3.3 Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Market**: As of September 18, 2025, the total open interest of all container shipping index European line futures contracts was 84,867.00 lots, and the daily trading volume was 31,831.00 lots. The closing prices of different contracts such as EC2602, EC2604, etc., were provided [7]. - **Spot Market**: The SCFI prices for different routes (Shanghai - Europe, Shanghai - US West, Shanghai - US East) and the SCFIS prices for European and US West routes were given as of relevant dates. The current spot price center is around $1400/FEU [4][6][7]. 3.4 Strategy and Risk - **Strategy**: The main contract is expected to fluctuate weakly. For arbitrage, short the October contract when the price is high [8]. - **Risk**: Downward risks include an unexpected decline in the European and US economies, a sharp drop in oil prices, unexpected vessel deliveries, insufficient vessel idling, and a good resolution of the Red Sea crisis. Upward risks include an economic recovery in Europe and the US, supply chain disruptions, significant capacity reduction by liner companies, and the continuous fermentation of the Red Sea crisis leading to route detours [8].

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the text regarding the report's industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - The October contract is mainly short - allocated during the off - season, with its valuation continuing to be revised downward. The HPL has announced the price for the second half of October. The price center in the first half of October has dropped to around $1500/FEU (equivalent to about 1050 points on SCFIS). The SCFIS on October 13 is expected to be between 1050 - 1100 points. If other shipping companies follow HPL's lead and keep the prices unchanged, the final delivery settlement price of the October contract will likely be below 1100 points [4]. - The pattern of off - peak and peak seasons still exists in the December contract. There is an opportunity to bet on the price increase expectation in November. However, the current risks include the bottom of the current freight rate decline and the weak demand on the US route. If ships on the US route are transferred to the European route in the fourth quarter, it may put pressure on European route prices [5]. - The strategy suggests that the main contract will fluctuate weakly on a single - side basis, and it is advisable to short the October contract in an arbitrage strategy [7]. Summary by Directory 1. Futures Price - As of September 17, 2025, the total open interest of all container shipping index European route futures contracts was 86,848.00 lots, and the single - day trading volume was 65,208.00 lots. The closing prices of EC2602, EC2604, EC2606, EC2608, EC2510, and EC2512 contracts were 1578.80, 1285.00, 1468.70, 1616.70, 1109.70, and 1672.00 respectively [6]. 2. Spot Price - On September 12, 2025, the SCFI (Shanghai - Europe route) price was $1154/TEU, the SCFI (Shanghai - US West route) price was $2370/FEU, and the SCFI (Shanghai - US East) price was $3307/FEU. On September 15, the SCFIS (Shanghai - Europe) was 1440.24 points, and the SCFIS (Shanghai - US West) was 1349.84 points [6]. 3. Container Ship Capacity Supply - In October 2025, the monthly average weekly capacity on the China - European base port route was 272,600 TEU, and in November, it was 283,000 TEU. There were 15 blank sailings and 1 TBN in October and 4 blank sailings and 6 TBN in November. HMM has announced the PA alliance's winter suspension plan for the Asia - Europe route [3]. - As of September 14, 2025, 186 container ships with a total capacity of 1.495 million TEU had been delivered in 2025. Among them, 59 ships with a capacity of 12,000 - 16,999 TEU (total 886,000 TEU) and 8 ships with a capacity of over 17,000 TEU (total 176,880 TEU) had been delivered [6]. 4. Supply Chain - There is geopolitical instability as Israel has launched a large - scale ground offensive in the Gaza Strip, which may impact the shipping supply chain [2]. 5. Demand and European Economy - The demand on the US route is weak, with the US NRF estimating that the container import demand from September to December 2025 will be about 20% lower than the same period in 2024. The transfer of US - bound ships to the European route in the fourth quarter may affect European route prices [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The container shipping index (European Line) showed a weak performance in the past week. The main 2510 contract closed at 1157.6 points on Friday, down 157 points week-on-week, and the secondary main 2512 contract closed at 1610.2 points, down 105 points week-on-week. The 2510 contract is expected to see reduced volatility, while the 2512 contract is expected to fluctuate widely between 1550 - 1800 points, and the 2602 contract may not necessarily be at a discount to the 12 contract in years with a late Spring Festival [12][15]. - In terms of freight rates, the SCFI announced on September 12 was the same as that on May 16, at $1154/TEU. The freight rate center in the 38th week dropped further to around $1650/FEU, and it is conservatively estimated that the cumulative decline in the 39th and 40th weeks will be $100/FEU, with the center possibly falling to around $1550/FEU. The freight rate trend in the 42nd - 43rd weeks after the National Day holiday is uncertain [13]. - On the supply side, the average weekly capacity in October is 265,000 TEU/week, with a year-on-year growth rate of 1.1%, which has significantly declined compared to the capacity growth rate from July - September. The average weekly capacity in November (weeks 44 - 48) is currently 307,000 TEU/week, with a year-on-year increase of 9% and a month-on-month increase of 16%, but this still needs to be observed due to a large number of undetermined voyages [14]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Contract Data**: EC2510 closed at 1,157.6 points, down 5.27% daily, with a trading volume of 27,358 and an open interest of 47,611, a decrease of 1,896. EC2512 closed at 1,610.2 points, down 1.41% daily, with a trading volume of 9,853 and an open interest of 19,637, an increase of 612. EC2602 closed at 1,500.8 points, down 0.56% daily, with a trading volume of 1,680 and an open interest of 6,327, an increase of 326 [1]. - **Shipping Company Freight Rates**: Different shipping companies have different freight rate adjustments. For example, Maersk's opening price for the Shanghai - Rotterdam route in the 39th week was reported at $1550/FEU, a decrease of $150/FEU compared to the previous period; MSC decreased from $1740 to $1590/FEU on September 17 [13]. 3.2 Macro News - Israeli - Palestinian conflict: Israeli officials notified the US only a few minutes before attacking Qatar. The Israeli military issued three evacuation warnings in one day and attacked high - rise buildings in Gaza City again. The Qatari Prime Minister stated that Israel's attacks would not lead to any results and would only "abort" efforts to ease tensions, and Qatar will continue to mediate the Gaza conflict [11]. - China - US economic and trade talks: Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng will lead a delegation to Spain to hold talks with the US from September 14 - 17 to discuss issues such as US unilateral tariff measures, abuse of export controls, and TikTok [11]. 3.3 Strategy - For the 2510 contract, it was recommended to take profits on dips in last week's report. If there is a rebound due to shipping companies "calling for price increases" or pre - holiday position reduction, consider lightly shorting again, with an upper resistance level of 1300 points. For the 02 - 04 and 12 - 04 positive spreads, enter the market on dips [16].

Core Insights - The global shipping market is experiencing dramatic price differentiation, with the Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) at 1398.1 points, down 46.33 points, and the China Containerized Freight Index (CCFI) at 1125.3 points, down 2.1% [1][2] Group 1: Market Trends - North American shipping routes are seeing stable demand, leading to continued price increases, while European routes lack growth momentum, resulting in price adjustments [3][4] - In September, trans-Pacific routes have seen price increases, contrasting with declines in European and Mediterranean routes, creating a stark divide in the shipping market [4][5] - The price for shipping from Shanghai to the U.S. West Coast and East Coast has risen to $1923/FEU and $2866/FEU, respectively, marking increases of 17.0% and 9.7% [5] Group 2: European Market Challenges - European shipping prices continue to face significant declines, with the NCFI for European routes down 7.9% and SCFI for European routes down 11.2% [6] - Despite high port congestion in major European ports, the overall shipping capacity remains excessive, leading to a lack of support for price recovery [6] Group 3: Shipping Companies' Strategies - Major shipping companies like Maersk, Hapag-Lloyd, and MSC have announced service suspensions in response to declining freight rates and cargo volumes, indicating a strategic reduction in capacity to avoid oversupply [7] - The traditional peak season is not materializing as expected, with reduced order volumes leading to a forecast of limited price rebounds by year-end [7] Group 4: Regulatory Impact - Starting October 14, the U.S. will impose port fees on Chinese-built vessels, which could significantly impact global shipping dynamics, as approximately 98% of vessels are linked to Chinese supply chains [9][10] - Chinese shipping companies are adjusting strategies to mitigate the impact of new U.S. port fees, including shifting capacity to other regions and increasing business in non-China routes [9]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - The container shipping index (European line) futures continued to fluctuate downward. As of the close, all contract prices declined to varying degrees. The EC2510 contract saw a reduction in long positions by 948 lots to 26,451 lots and a reduction in short positions by 1,167 lots to 27,579 lots, with trading volume decreasing by 5,185 lots to 30,843 lots (bilateral). The mainstream shipping companies continued to lower freight rates during the current off - season, and the short - term futures prices are likely to maintain a relatively downward trend. It is recommended to adopt a quick - in - quick - out strategy, while also being cautious of potential rebounds after the futures prices reach short - term lows [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs EC Risk Management Strategy Recommendations - For position management, if one has already obtained positions but the shipping capacity is full or the booked cargo volume is poor, and there are concerns about freight rate drops, with a long spot exposure, to prevent losses, one can short the container shipping index futures based on the company's positions to lock in profits. The recommended hedging tool is EC2510, with a selling range of 1300 - 1400 [2]. - For cost management, if shipping companies increase the frequency of blank sailings or the peak season is approaching, and one hopes to book cabins according to order situations, with a short spot exposure, to prevent freight rate increases and rising transportation costs, one can buy the container shipping index futures at present to determine the cabin - booking cost in advance. The recommended hedging tool is EC2510, with a buying range of 1000 - 1100 [2]. Core Contradictions - The container shipping index (European line) futures continued to decline. The reduction in long and short positions in the EC2510 contract and the decrease in trading volume, along with the continuous reduction of freight rate quotes by shipping companies, indicate that short - term futures prices are likely to remain in a downward trend. A quick - in - quick - out trading strategy is recommended, and attention should be paid to potential rebounds [3]. Bullish Interpretations - MSC, Maersk, and HMM have successively announced their Golden Week blank sailing plans [4]. Bearish Interpretations - ONE followed up by lowering the European line quotes for late September in the online cabin - booking quotes of shipping companies. - The attack on Qatar by Israel has led to a tense situation in the region, which may have an impact on the container shipping market [5]. EC Basis and Price Information - The basis of EC contracts shows different degrees of daily and weekly changes. For example, the basis of EC2510 was 408.86 points, with a daily increase of 46.20 points and a weekly increase of 157.70 points [5]. - The closing prices of EC contracts also declined to varying degrees. For example, the closing price of EC2510 was 1157.6 points, with a daily decline of 5.02% and a weekly decline of 7.45% [6]. Container Shipping Spot Cabin Quotes - On September 22, Maersk's 20GP total quote for the Shanghai - Rotterdam route increased by $5 to $997, and the 40GP total quote increased by $10 to $1669 compared to the previous period. - In mid - to - late September, ONE's 20GP total quote for the Shanghai - Rotterdam route decreased by $190 to $1354, and the 40GP total quote decreased by $300 to $1643 compared to the previous period [8]. Global Freight Rate Indexes - SCFIS European route dropped by 11.68% to 1566.46 points; SCFIS US - West route dropped by 3.30% to 980.48 points. - SCFI European route decreased by 12.24% to $1154 per TEU; SCFI US - West route increased by 8.27% to $2370 per FEU [9]. Global Port Waiting Times - The waiting times at ports such as Hong Kong, Shanghai, and Yantian increased on September 11 compared to the previous day, while the waiting times at ports such as Jakarta, Long Beach, and Savannah decreased [16]. Ship Speed and Waiting Ship Numbers in Suez Canal - The average speeds of 8000 + and 3000 + container ships increased slightly on September 11 compared to the previous day, while the average speed of 1000 + container ships decreased slightly. The number of container ships waiting at the Suez Canal port anchorage increased from 8 to 21 [25].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The freight rate center continues to decline, and attention should be paid to Maersk's price offer in the first week of October next week [1]. - The 10 - month contract is mainly for short - allocation during the off - season, with its valuation continuing to decline, and the uncertainty lies in the second half of October [6][7]. - The pattern of off - peak and peak seasons still exists for the 12 - month contract. Recently, the expectation of price increase in November can be speculated on, but the risk lies in the bottom of this round of freight rate decline [8]. - The main contract is oscillating weakly on a single - side basis, and it is advisable to short the 10 - month contract on an arbitrage basis [10]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Analysis - **Online Quotes**: Different shipping companies have different price quotes for routes such as Shanghai - Rotterdam. For example, Maersk's Shanghai - Rotterdam price in week 38 is 1055/1770, and in week 39 it is 950/1590. HPL - SPOT's price in the second half of September and the first half of October is 935/1535. Maersk's PSS for the Far East - Nordic region drops to 50/100 [1]. - **Geopolitical Situation**: Israel launched an attack on Hamas' senior political leaders in Doha, Qatar, which further escalated the conflict. Qatar condemned the attack, stating that it blatantly violated international law [3]. 3.2 Static Supply - As of September 7, 2025, 182 container ships with a total capacity of 1.472 million TEU have been delivered in 2025. Among them, 58 ships with a capacity of 12,000 - 16,999 TEU and a total capacity of 873,200 TEU, and 9 ships with a capacity of over 17,000 TEU and a total capacity of 194,840 TEU have been delivered. From 2025 - 2028, there is still significant supply - side pressure, especially in 2027, 2028, and 2029 when the annual delivery volume of ships over 17,000 TEU exceeds 35 [4]. 3.3 Dynamic Supply - MSC and the Gemini Alliance have announced blank sailings during the Chinese Golden Week. In September, there were 4 blank sailings and 0 TBNs, while in October, there were 10 blank sailings and 6 TBNs. HPL has announced two additional ships for October, which may put pressure on the spot price in October [5]. 3.4 Contracts Analysis - **10 - Month Contract**: It is mainly for short - allocation during the off - season, with its valuation continuing to decline. The normal price in October is 20% - 30% lower than that in August. The current market price center in the first half of October is around 1600 US dollars/FEU, and there is a possibility of further decline. The uncertainty lies in the second half of October. If the price increase is successful in the second half of October, the optimistic valuation ceiling of the 10 - month contract may be around 1200 points; otherwise, it may be lower than 1100 points [6][7]. - **12 - Month Contract**: The pattern of off - peak and peak seasons still exists. Normally, the price in December is more than 10% higher than that in October. With the approach of Western holidays in the fourth quarter, shipping companies may adjust supply to keep freight rates high. However, the risk lies in the bottom of this round of freight rate decline, and if ships from the US line are transferred to the European line, it may put pressure on European line prices [8]. 3.5 Strategy - **Single - side**: The main contract is oscillating weakly. - **Arbitrage**: Short the 10 - month contract [10]. 3.6 Futures and Spot Prices - As of September 11, 2025, the total open interest of all contracts of the container shipping index European line futures is 83,647 lots, and the single - day trading volume is 45,107 lots. The closing prices of different contracts such as EC2602, EC2604, etc. are provided. The SCFI and SCFIS prices of different routes are also given [9].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **10 - month contract**: In the off - season, the contract is mainly short - allocated, and the valuation continues to decline. The uncertainty lies in the second half of October. The current top - end valuation of the 10 - month contract may be around 1200 points, and the key is whether shipping companies will try to support prices in the second half of October [6][7]. - **12 - month contract**: The off - peak and peak season pattern remains. In the near term, the expected price increase in November can be speculated on. However, the risk is the bottom of the current freight rate decline, and if US - bound ships are diverted to European routes, it may put pressure on European route prices [8]. - **Strategy**: The main contract fluctuates weakly on a single - side basis, and it is advisable to short the 10 - month contract on an arbitrage basis [10]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Analysis - **Online quotes**: Different shipping companies have different price quotes for routes such as Shanghai - Rotterdam. For example, Maersk's Shanghai - Rotterdam price in Week 38 was $1050/1760, and in Week 39 it was $1550/FEU. Other companies like HPL, MSC, ONE, HMM, YML, CMA, EMC, and OOCL also have their respective price quotes for different time periods [1][2][3]. - **Geopolitical situation**: Israel has launched an attack on Hamas' senior political leaders in Doha, Qatar, which has led to condemnation from Qatar [3]. 3.2 Container Ship Capacity Supply - **Static supply**: As of September 7, 2025, 182 container ships with a total capacity of 1.472 million TEU have been delivered in 2025. There are significant delivery expectations from 2025 - 2028, especially in 2027, 2028, and 2029 for ships over 17,000 TEU [4]. - **Dynamic supply**: MSC and the Gemini Alliance have announced empty sailings during the Chinese Golden Week. There are also differences in monthly average capacity and the number of empty sailings and TBNs between September and October. HPL has announced two additional ships in October [5]. 3.3 Futures and Spot Prices - **Futures prices**: As of September 10, 2025, the positions and trading volumes of all contracts of the container shipping index for European routes are provided, along with the closing prices of specific contracts such as EC2602, EC2604, etc. [9]. - **Spot prices**: SCFI and SCFIS prices for different routes such as Shanghai - Europe, Shanghai - West US, and Shanghai - East US are given [8][9]. 3.4 Strategy and Risk - **Strategy**: The main contract shows a weak - oscillating trend on a single - side basis, and it is recommended to short the 10 - month contract for arbitrage [10]. - **Risks**: Downside risks include an unexpected economic slowdown in Europe and the US, a sharp drop in oil prices, etc.; upside risks include economic recovery in Europe and the US, supply chain disruptions, etc. [10]

Report Information - Report Title: Container Industry Risk Management Daily Report [1] - Date: September 10, 2025 [1] - Analyst: Fu Xiaoyan [1] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Views - The intraday trend of the container shipping index (European line) futures was in line with expectations, with the main contract being undervalued but lacking driving forces, resulting in a stalemate [3]. - For hedgers, the strategy suggested yesterday can be attempted. When the futures price does not drop significantly (>30%), the "selling options + buying futures" combination has a high probability of maintaining profitability [3]. - Operationally, it is recommended to enter and exit quickly [3]. Summary by Directory EC Risk Management Strategy Recommendations - For position management, if one has already obtained positions but the shipping capacity is full or the booked cargo volume is poor, and there are concerns about falling freight rates, to prevent losses, one can short container shipping index futures based on the company's positions to lock in profits. The recommended hedging tool is EC2510, with a suggested selling entry range of 1350 - 1450 [2]. - For cost management, if shipping companies increase blank sailings or the market peak season is approaching, and one hopes to book shipping spaces according to order situations, to prevent rising freight rates from increasing transportation costs, one can buy container shipping index futures at present to determine the booking cost in advance. The recommended hedging tool is EC2510, with a suggested buying entry range of 1150 - 1250 [2]. Core Contradictions - In the morning session of the container shipping index (European line) futures, there was obvious early buying by bulls, but they were defeated by the weak spot market expectations. The market was in a stalemate between bulls and bears and ended in consolidation [3]. - As of the close, all contracts had varying degrees of position increases, with the EC2512 contract having the largest increase in positions. Except for the two rebounding forward contracts, it had the smallest decline [3]. - From the changes in the positions of the top 20 institutional holders on the exchange, in the EC2510 contract, bulls reduced their positions by 293 to 25,913, bears increased their positions by 288 to 28,509, and the trading volume decreased by 7,636 to 17,281 (bilateral) [3]. Bullish Interpretations - In July 2025, China's automobile exports continued to show a trend of increasing volume and price. The number of automobile exports reached 694,000, a year-on-year increase of 25.6% and a month-on-month increase of 12.1%. The total import and export volume of automobile products was $24.98 billion, a year-on-year increase of 7% and a month-on-month increase of 6.4%. Among them, the export amount was $20.48 billion, a year-on-year increase of 13.6% and a month-on-month increase of 6% [4]. - MSC, Maersk, and HMM have successively announced their suspension plans for the Golden Week [4]. Bearish Interpretations - The net profit of the global container shipping industry declined significantly in the second quarter of this year. According to a report by a shipping finance analyst, the shipping industry achieved a net income of $4.4 billion in the second quarter, a sharp drop of 56% from the first quarter's $9.9 billion and a significant decline of 63.7% compared to the same period in 2024 [5]. - According to the daily "Freight Rate Note" data, in mid - to late September, the average online booking quote for 20GP containers by shipping companies continued to decline, while the average quote for 40GP containers remained stable [5]. EC Basis Daily Changes - On September 10, 2025, the basis of EC2510 was 299.06 points, with a daily increase of 1.30 points and a weekly decrease of 151.54 points [7]. - The basis of EC2512 was -107.54 points, with a daily increase of 8.90 points and a weekly decrease of 179.94 points [7]. - The basis of EC2602 was 42.46 points, with a daily increase of 3.40 points and a weekly decrease of 197.14 points [7]. - The basis of EC2604 was 320.46 points, with a daily increase of 10.70 points and a weekly decrease of 198.04 points [7]. - The basis of EC2606 was 122.56 points, with a daily decrease of 9.40 points and a weekly decrease of 209.94 points [7]. - The basis of EC2608 was -33.54 points, with a daily increase of 8 points and a weekly decrease of 197.64 points [7]. EC Price and Spreads - On September 10, 2025, the closing price of EC2510 was 1267.4 points, with a daily decrease of 0.10% and a weekly decrease of 4.20% [7]. - The closing price of EC2512 was 1674.0 points, with a daily decrease of 0.53% and a weekly decrease of 1.60% [7]. - The closing price of EC2602 was 1524.0 points, with a daily decrease of 0.22% and a weekly decrease of 0.65% [7]. - The closing price of EC2604 was 1246.0 points, with a daily decrease of 0.28% and a weekly decrease of 0.73% [7]. - The closing price of EC2606 was 1443.9 points, with a daily increase of 0.66% and a weekly increase of 0.19% [7]. - The closing price of EC2608 was 1600.0 points, with a daily decrease of 0.39% and a weekly decrease of 0.59% [7]. Container Shipping Spot Quotes - On September 18, for Maersk's shipping schedule from Shanghai to Rotterdam, the total quote for 20GP containers was $1050, a decrease of $52 compared to the September 17 schedule, and the total quote for 40GP containers was $1760, a decrease of $88 compared to the September 17 schedule [9]. - On September 18, for Hapag - Lloyd's shipping schedule from Shanghai to Rotterdam, the quote for 20GP containers was $1035, an increase of $100 compared to the September 17 schedule, and the quote for 40GP containers was $1535, a decrease of $200 compared to the September 17 schedule [9]. - On September 25, for ONE's shipping schedule from Shanghai to Rotterdam, the quote for 20GP containers was $1244, a decrease of $300 compared to the September 22 schedule, and the quote for 40GP containers was $1943, unchanged from the September 22 schedule [9]. Shipping Index Changes - The SCFIS European route index was 1566.46 points, a decrease of 207.14 points or 11.68% compared to the previous value [10]. - The SCFIS US - West route index was 980.48 points, a decrease of 33.42 points or 3.30% compared to the previous value [10]. - The SCFI European route was $1315/TEU, a decrease of $166 or 11.21% compared to the previous value [10]. - The SCFI US - West route was $2189/FEU, an increase of $266 or 13.83% compared to the previous value [10]. - The XSI European line was $2324/FEU, a decrease of $32 or 1.36% compared to the previous value [10]. - The XSI US - West line was $2248/FEU, an increase of $54 or 2.5% compared to the previous value [10]. - The FBX composite freight rate index was $2080/FEU, an increase of $44 or 2.16% compared to the previous value [10]. Global Major Port Waiting Times - On September 9, 2025, the waiting time at Hong Kong Port was 0.830 days, a decrease of 0.393 days compared to September 8 and 1.434 days compared to the same period last year [17]. - The waiting time at Shanghai Port was 1.697 days, an increase of 0.374 days compared to September 8 and 1.183 days compared to the same period last year [17]. - The waiting time at Yantian Port was 0.807 days, a decrease of 0.134 days compared to September 8 [17]. - The waiting time at Singapore Port was 0.569 days, a decrease of 0.193 days compared to September 8 and 0.453 days compared to the same period last year [17]. - The waiting time at Jakarta Port was 1.422 days, an increase of 0.329 days compared to September 8 and 1.454 days compared to the same period last year [17]. - The waiting time at Long Beach Port was 1.849 days, an increase of 0.247 days compared to September 8 and 1.925 days compared to the same period last year [17]. - The waiting time at Savannah Port was 1.953 days, an increase of 0.980 days compared to September 8 and 1.403 days compared to the same period last year [17]. Ship Speeds and Number of Container Ships Waiting at Suez Canal Ports - On September 9, 2025, the speed of container ships with a capacity of over 8000 TEU was 15.852 knots, a decrease of 0.017 knots compared to September 8 and 15.904 knots compared to the same period last year [26]. - The speed of container ships with a capacity of over 3000 TEU was 14.789 knots, a decrease of 0.084 knots compared to September 8 and 15.205 knots compared to the same period last year [26]. - The speed of container ships with a capacity of over 1000 TEU was 13.29 knots, an increase of 0.062 knots compared to September 8 and 13.525 knots compared to the same period last year [26]. - The number of ships waiting at the Suez Canal port anchorages was 20, a decrease of 2 compared to September 8 and an increase of 8 compared to the same period last year [26].