Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Outperform the Market" rating to the company for the first time [5][36][37] Core Views - The company is a leading state-owned enterprise with a strong market position, focusing on development, asset operation, and property services, with a stable shareholding structure [1][8][10] - The company has faced short-term pressure on performance, with a significant decline in net profit due to increased impairment provisions and a decrease in gross profit margin [1][15] - Despite a challenging market environment, the company is expected to stabilize and recover as high land cost, low margin projects are completed [3][36] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved operating revenue of 178.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2%, but net profit fell by 36% to 4 billion yuan due to 6 billion yuan in impairment provisions [1][15] - The gross profit margin for the company was 15.6%, down 1.5 percentage points year-on-year [1][15] - The company plans to distribute a dividend of 0.19 yuan per share, corresponding to a payout ratio of approximately 43% [1][15] Sales and Development - The company maintained a sales amount of 219.3 billion yuan in 2024, a decrease of 25% year-on-year, while the sales area dropped by 24% [2][20] - The company acquired 26 land parcels in 2024, with a total planned construction area of approximately 2.25 million square meters and a total land cost of about 48.6 billion yuan [2][20] Financial Health - As of the end of 2024, the company had a debt-to-asset ratio of 62% and a net debt ratio of 56%, maintaining a healthy financial position [22] - The company's comprehensive financing cost was 2.99%, reduced by 48 basis points from the beginning of the year, indicating a strong financing advantage [22] Profit Forecast - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 161.8 billion yuan, 153 billion yuan, and 156.9 billion yuan in 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with net profits of 4.1 billion yuan for each of those years [3][24][28] - The report anticipates a gradual recovery in performance as the company completes its low-margin projects and stabilizes its financials [3][36] Valuation - The absolute valuation estimates the company's per-share value at 11.38 yuan, indicating a potential upside of 20% from the current share price [31][35] - Relative valuation shows that the company's 2025 dynamic PE is 17.2, which is at a premium compared to comparable companies with an average PE of 12.5 [36]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market," indicating that the industry index is expected to perform better than the benchmark index over the next 6-12 months [29]. Core Insights - In March 2025, new home prices in 70 major cities decreased by 0.1% month-on-month, while second-hand home prices fell by 0.2%. The number of cities with declining new home prices was 41, a decrease of 4 from February, with an average decline of 0.29% [6][17]. - First-tier cities saw a month-on-month increase in both new and second-hand home prices, with new home prices rising by 0.1% and second-hand home prices increasing by 0.2% [6][20]. - Second-tier cities experienced stable new home prices, while second-hand home prices saw a reduced decline of 0.2% [6][20]. - Third-tier cities had a narrowing decline in new home prices of 0.2% and a decrease in second-hand home prices by 0.3% [6][20]. - The report suggests that from mid-April, attention should be focused on the real estate sector, as measures to stabilize the market are expected to accelerate, with potential policy easing in core cities [6][20]. Summary by Sections Price Trends - In March 2025, new home prices in 70 major cities decreased by 0.1%, while second-hand home prices fell by 0.2%. The number of cities with declining new home prices was 41, with an average decline of 0.29% [6][17]. - First-tier cities showed a month-on-month increase in new home prices by 0.1% and second-hand home prices by 0.2% [6][20]. - Second-tier cities had stable new home prices, while second-hand home prices decreased by 0.2% [6][20]. - Third-tier cities saw a decline in new home prices by 0.2% and second-hand home prices by 0.3% [6][20]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on four main lines: 1. Companies with stable fundamentals and high market share in core cities, such as Greentown China and China Resources Land [6]. 2. Smaller companies that have made significant breakthroughs in sales and land acquisition since 2024, like Poly Real Estate Group [6]. 3. Companies with operational or strategic changes, such as Gemdale Corporation and Longfor Group [6]. 4. Real estate brokerage firms benefiting from the recovery in the second-hand housing market, like Beike-W and Wo Ai Wo Jia [6].

香港交易及結算所有限公司及香港聯合交易所有限公司對本公告之內容概不負責，對其準確性或完整性亦不發表 任何聲明，並明確表示，概不就因本公告全部或任何部份內容而產生或因倚賴該等內容而引致之任何損失承擔任 何責任。 （在香港註冊成立的有限公司） （股份代號：00123） 海外監管公告 本公告乃根據《香港聯合交易所有限公司證券上市規則》第13.10B條而作出。 承董事會命 越秀地產股份有限公司 余達峯 公司秘書 香港，二○二五年四月十六日 於本公告刊發日期，董事會成員包括： 執行董事： 林昭遠（董事長）、朱輝松、江國雄、賀玉平、陳靜及劉艷 非執行董事： 張貽兵及蘇俊杰 獨立非執行董事： 余立發、李家麟、劉漢銓及張建生 债券代码：185771 债券简称：22 穗建 01 广州市城市建设开发有限公司关于放弃行使 "22穗建01"公司债券赎回选择权的公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述 或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担个别及连带责任。 重要提示： 《广州市城市建设开发有限公司 2022 年面向专业投资者公开发行公司债券 （第一期）募集说明书》中设定了发行人赎回选择权条 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [4] Core Viewpoints - In March 2025, the decline in new home sales and new construction area significantly narrowed, indicating a potential recovery in the real estate market [1][2] - The cumulative sales area of commercial housing from January to March 2025 showed a year-on-year growth rate of -3%, an improvement from -5.1% previously, while the cumulative sales amount decreased by -2.1% compared to -2.6% previously [1] - The cumulative new construction area from January to March 2025 had a year-on-year growth rate of -24.4%, improving from -29.6% previously, and the cumulative completion area showed a decline of -14.3%, also an improvement from -15.6% [2] - The funding for real estate development companies saw a year-on-year growth rate of -3.7% from January to March 2025, slightly worsening from -3.6% previously, with a notable decline in self-raised funds [3] Summary by Sections Sales Data - In March 2025, the sales area of new homes showed a year-on-year growth rate of -0.9%, improving from -5.1% previously, while the sales amount decreased by -1.6% compared to -2.6% previously [1] Development Investment - The cumulative development investment from January to March 2025 had a year-on-year growth rate of -9.9%, slightly worsening from -9.8% previously, with March showing a single-month decline of -10% [2] Funding Sources - The year-on-year growth rate of funding for real estate development companies in March 2025 was -3.9%, worsening from -3.6% previously, with self-raised funds declining by -11.7% [3] Investment Recommendations - Short-term focus on valuation recovery opportunities due to policy easing, and long-term focus on leading companies with core city resources and real estate operation capabilities, such as Poly Developments, China Resources Land, and others [3]

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The discussion revolves around the real estate industry, particularly focusing on the investment strategies and market conditions in China, with references to historical data from the U.S. housing market during the 2007-2008 crisis [1][2][3]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Current Market Position**: The fundamental market conditions are perceived as weak, with the investment opportunity being viewed as still in the left side of a U-shaped recovery [1]. 2. **Historical Analysis**: The recovery of major builders' stock prices is linked to substantial improvements in the underlying fundamentals, such as asset price stabilization, rather than mere short-term rebounds [1]. 3. **Supply and Demand Dynamics**: Initial supply-demand issues in the industry may not have been fully exposed, leading to systemic financial risks, as evidenced by rising default rates in commercial and residential loans in the U.S. [2]. 4. **Valuation Discrepancies**: A comparative analysis between Chinese and U.S. real estate markets reveals significant differences in how companies handle non-performing assets during downturns, affecting stock price declines [3]. 5. **Investment Strategy**: The current investment strategy emphasizes finding stocks with strong alpha potential amid unclear market trends, focusing on policy-driven opportunities [4][6]. 6. **Improved Supply-Demand Conditions**: Core cities, particularly in the second-hand housing market, show significant improvements in supply-demand relationships, with a notable decrease in listings in Beijing [5]. 7. **Financial Recovery Opportunities**: Companies like Xincheng Development are highlighted as having potential for stock price rebounds following financial restructuring [7]. 8. **Operational Improvements**: Companies are expected to first resolve liquidity issues before improving cash flow and investing in quality land [7]. 9. **Selection Criteria for Investments**: Recommendations for investment focus on land acquisition strength, operational resilience, and responsiveness to policy changes [8][9]. 10. **Market Sentiment**: The overall market sentiment remains pessimistic regarding real estate fundamentals, with expectations of further declines in property prices [12][13]. 11. **Valuation Models**: A model indicates that the average expected decline in property prices is around 10%, reflecting investor sentiment [13]. 12. **Long-term Market Dynamics**: The market is expected to stabilize, with a potential increase in market share for leading firms, particularly state-owned enterprises [19][22]. 13. **Investment Risks**: Risks include the potential for policy measures to fall short of expectations, which could lead to a repeat of previous market downturns [25][26]. Additional Important Insights - **Debt and Credit Concerns**: There are ongoing concerns regarding public debt and the creditworthiness of certain firms, which could impact overall market recovery [26]. - **Market Recovery Projections**: The long-term growth of the industry is anticipated to be driven by improvements in core city property prices, while non-core cities may experience a decline [24]. - **Valuation Metrics**: Future valuations are projected to range between 7x to 10x PE, reflecting a more stable market environment [24]. This summary encapsulates the key insights and strategic considerations discussed in the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current state and future outlook of the real estate industry.

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Positive" [7][51]. Core Viewpoints - The real estate market in Q2 is experiencing a downturn, with a focus on whether unexpected policies will be introduced to stabilize the market [2]. - In 2025, under the goal of "stopping the decline and stabilizing," it is expected that the relaxation of purchase restrictions in first-tier cities will increase, and urban village renovations will accelerate [3][51]. - The report highlights that the sales volume of new homes in 44 major cities is approximately 20,000 units, showing a 23% increase month-on-month (excluding the Spring Festival effect), which is higher than the 13% increase in 2024 but lower than the 24% increase in 2023 [51]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - In the 15th week, the real estate sector index outperformed both the CSI 300 index and the ChiNext index, with a relative return of 1.2% compared to the CSI 300 index [11]. - The CSI 300 index closed at 3750.52 with a weekly decline of 2.9%, while the real estate index (Shenwan) closed at 2190.21 with a weekly decline of 1.7% [11][15]. Sales Data - In the 15th week, new home sales in 44 major cities were 14,000 units, a decrease of 28.8% from the previous week, while second-hand home sales in 21 major cities increased by 15.3% to 21,000 units [16]. - Inventory in 18 major cities increased to 842,000 units, with a sales-to-inventory ratio of 23.7 months, indicating a slight increase in inventory pressure [23]. Policy Developments - Local policies include Guangzhou's "land acquisition and immediate construction" model, Fuzhou's new housing provident fund regulations, and Hainan's increase in maximum loan limits for new self-occupied housing [13][21]. - Nanjing has introduced a government subsidy program to promote housing consumption through "old-for-new" exchanges [21]. Company Recommendations - The report recommends buying shares of Poly Developments (600048) and China Merchants Shekou (001979), while suggesting to pay attention to China Resources Land (01109), Yuexiu Property (00123), and others [3][51]. - Additionally, it recommends investing in real estate intermediary platforms like Beike-W (02423) that will benefit from policy support and increased market activity [3][51].

Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights a significant trend of salary reductions among executives in the real estate industry, with many companies adjusting their compensation structures in response to financial pressures [1][5][7] - Major companies like China Merchants Shekou have initiated salary cuts, with CEO Jiang Tiefeng's salary dropping from 4.9169 million yuan in 2023 to 2.4177 million yuan in 2024, a reduction of approximately 51% [2][4] - Other notable companies such as Vanke and Country Garden have also seen their executives' salaries decrease significantly, with some executives now earning as little as 10,000 yuan per month [1][3] Group 2 - The performance of China Merchants Shekou in 2024 shows a revenue of 178.948 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.25%, but a net profit attributable to shareholders of 4.039 billion yuan, a decrease of 36.09% [2] - Vanke's executive vice president, Yu Liang, voluntarily reduced his salary to a pre-tax amount of 120,000 yuan, down from previous years where he earned over 1 million yuan [2][4] - The article notes that the real estate sector is facing challenges such as shrinking scale, declining profits, and high debt levels, making it increasingly difficult for executives to manage their companies effectively [5][6] Group 3 - The salary adjustments reflect a broader trend in the industry where high salaries are becoming less sustainable, with many companies experiencing significant drops in profits and revenues [7] - For instance, China Jinmao's chairman saw a salary decrease from 1.536 million yuan to 1.301 million yuan, while Huafa's chairman's salary dropped from 6.834 million yuan to 2.8905 million yuan [6] - Despite the overall decline in executive compensation, some companies like Greentown Group still report relatively high average salaries, indicating a disparity within the industry [7]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [7][51] Core Viewpoints - The real estate market in Q2 is experiencing a downturn, with a focus on whether unexpected policies will be introduced to stabilize the market [2] - In 2025, under the goal of "stopping the decline and stabilizing," it is expected that the relaxation of purchase restrictions in first-tier cities will increase, and urban village renovations will accelerate [3][51] - The report highlights that high-quality land reserves and strong product capabilities in leading cities will provide alpha attributes for real estate companies [3][51] Summary by Sections Market Performance - In the 15th week, the real estate sector index outperformed both the CSI 300 index and the ChiNext index, with a relative return of 1.2% compared to the CSI 300 index [11] - The CSI 300 index closed at 3750.52 with a weekly decline of 2.9%, while the real estate index (Shenwan) closed at 2190.21 with a weekly decline of 1.7% [11][15] Sales Data - In the 15th week, new home sales in 44 major cities were 14,000 units, a decrease of 28.8% from the previous week, while second-hand home sales in 21 major cities increased by 15.3% to 21,000 units [16] - Inventory in 18 major cities increased to 842,000 units, with a sales-to-inventory ratio of 23.7 months, up by 0.7 months from the previous week [23] Policy Developments - Local policies include Guangzhou's "land acquisition immediately followed by construction" model and adjustments to housing provident fund regulations in various cities [13][21] - The report notes that the issuance of 9.415 billion yuan in special bonds for land reserves in Hunan is aimed at stimulating the market [21] Company Recommendations - Recommended stocks include Poly Developments (600048, Buy) and China Merchants Shekou (001979, Buy) [3][51] - Companies to watch include China Resources Land (01109, Not Rated) and Yuexiu Property (00123, Not Rated) [3][51] Market Trends - The report indicates that the market recovery momentum in 2025 is stronger than in 2024 but weaker than in 2023, with ongoing downward pressure on new home sales [51] - The report emphasizes that the future trajectory of the real estate market will largely depend on the interplay between export performance and economic policies [51]

香港交易及結算所有限公司及香港聯合交易所有限公司對本公告之內容概不負責，對其準確性或完整性亦不發表 任何聲明，並明確表示，概不就因本公告全部或任何部份內容而產生或因倚賴該等內容而引致之任何損失承擔任 何責任。 承董事會命 越秀地產股份有限公司 余達峯 公司秘書 （在香港註冊成立的有限公司） （股份代號：00123） 海外監管公告 本公告乃根據《香港聯合交易所有限公司證券上市規則》第13.10B條而作出。 香港，二○二五年四月十四日 於本公告刊發日期，董事會成員包括： 執行董事： 林昭遠（董事長）、朱輝松、江國雄、賀玉平、陳靜及劉艷 非執行董事： 張貽兵及蘇俊杰 獨立非執行董事： 余立發、李家麟、劉漢銓及張建生 债券代码：185771 债券简称：22 穗建 01 广州市城市建设开发有限公司 关于"22 穗建 01"公司债券回售实施公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述 或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担个别及连带责任。 重要提示： 1、根据《广州市城市建设开发有限公司 2022 年面向专业投资者公开发行公 司债券（第一期）募集说明书》中设定的投资者回售选择权， ...

Investment Rating - Industry rating: Outperform the market (maintained rating) [4] Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes the development opportunity for "domestic demand" and highlights the value of sector allocation. The government's work report for 2025 includes stabilizing the real estate market as a key requirement for economic and social development. There is a positive expectation for incremental policies, which are crucial for stabilizing domestic demand amid export fluctuations. The recent deep adjustment in the sector has improved the cost-effectiveness of allocations, with A-share Shenwan real estate PB at 0.7X and H-share domestic real estate PB at 0.47X, nearing historical lows [1][9]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Overview - New housing market transactions for the week totaled 201 million square meters, with a month-on-month decline of 0.90% and a decrease of 1.46 percentage points compared to the previous month. The cumulative inventory stands at 111.49 million square meters, with accelerated de-stocking in second and third-tier cities, while first-tier cities are slowing down [3][15]. - The second-hand housing market saw transactions of 207 million square meters, with a year-on-year increase of 19.70%, although this represents a decline of 19.38 percentage points from the previous month [3][24]. - The land market recorded a transaction area of 2.628 million square meters, with a rolling 12-week year-on-year decline of 15.78% [3][29]. 2. Financing Dynamics - As of April 10, 2025, approximately 850 projects for acquiring idle land using special bonds have been announced nationwide, covering over 40 million square meters and totaling 128.2 billion yuan. The majority of these projects are led by local state-owned enterprises [2][11]. 3. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on non-state-owned enterprises benefiting from debt resolution, policy relief, and demand improvement. It also highlights leading real estate companies with product advantages and regional enterprises with improved market share. Additionally, it recommends second-hand intermediaries benefiting from increased transaction activity [4][10]. - Specific companies to watch include: 1. Non-state-owned enterprises: Longfor Group, Gemdale Corporation, New Town Holdings, Greentown China, and Binjiang Group 2. Local state-owned enterprises: Yuexiu Property, Urban Construction Development, and Jianfa International Group 3. Leading state-owned enterprises: China Overseas Land & Investment, China Merchants Shekou, Poly Developments, and China Resources Land 4. Quality property management firms: China Overseas Property, Poly Property, China Resources Mixc Life, Wanwu Cloud, and China Merchants Jinling [4][10].