2025.10. 30 本文字数：1176，阅读时长大约2分钟 作者 | 第一财经 陆涵之 10月30日，市值冲上4万亿美元的微软发布了截至9月30日的2026财年第一财季业绩。尽管营收和净利润双双增 长，但微软股价在盘后下跌近4%。 财报显示，微软第一财季营收为777亿美元，同比增长18%。净利润为277亿美元，同比增长12%。 但是本季度微软的资本支出达到349亿美元，创下纪录。微软此前表示，预计2026财年第一财季的资本支出将超 过300亿美元，实际数字高于此前预期。 财报电话会议上，微软执行副总裁兼首席财务官艾米·胡德 (Amy Hood)表示，约一半的支出用于短期资产，主要 是采购GPU 和 CPU，以支持不断增长的 Azure 平台需求、持续发展的人工智能解决方案等。剩余支出用于长期 资产，以支持未来 15 年及更长时间内的盈利，其中包括 111 亿美元的融资租赁，主要用于大型数据中心。 微软董事长兼首席执行官萨蒂亚·纳德拉 (Satya Nadella)在财报中表示，将继续加大对人工智能领域的投资，包 括资金和人才，以把握未来巨大的机遇。他同时表示，微软旗下所有产品中，人工智能功能的月活跃用户已 ...

Core Insights - Microsoft achieved double-digit revenue and profit growth in Q1 FY2026, but Azure's capacity constraints are becoming a key growth limitation [1][2] - Azure and other cloud services revenue grew by 39%, matching the highest growth rate in two and a half years, but still fell short of some optimistic buyer expectations [1][2] - The company plans to double its data center footprint in the next two years to alleviate capacity pressure [2][3] Financial Performance - Q1 revenue reached $77.7 billion, with an 18% year-over-year growth [21] - Gross margin was 69%, slightly down year-over-year due to increased AI infrastructure investments [21] - Operating income grew by 24% year-over-year, with an operating margin of 49% [21] Capital Expenditure - Capital expenditures reached $34.9 billion, a 74% increase year-over-year, with about half allocated for short-term assets like GPUs and CPUs [4][22] - The company is investing heavily to meet unprecedented demand, particularly in AI and cloud services [4][22] Azure and Cloud Services - Azure's revenue exceeded $49 billion, growing 26% year-over-year, with a significant increase in remaining performance obligations (RPO) by over 50% to nearly $400 billion [3][24] - Azure AI customer count reached 80,000, including 80% of Fortune 500 companies [3][11] - Despite strong demand, Azure's capacity constraints are impacting revenue, particularly for high-priority services like Microsoft 365 Copilot [5][24] Strategic Partnerships - Microsoft signed a new agreement with OpenAI, valued at $250 billion, enhancing its strategic position in AI [3][7] - The partnership is expected to provide more certainty regarding intellectual property rights and further solidify Microsoft's market position [7][9] Market Dynamics and Risks - Concerns about an "AI bubble" and investment risks have emerged among investors, but Microsoft emphasizes the strong demand reflected in its RPO [6][34] - The company is focused on sustainable, balanced long-term growth rather than short-term expansion [6][34] Future Outlook - Microsoft anticipates that data center constraints will persist until 2026, but is actively working to expand capacity and optimize existing data centers [2][3] - The company expects continued strong growth in cloud and AI products, with Azure revenue projected to grow approximately 37% [27]

Core Insights - OpenAI is preparing for an initial public offering (IPO) as early as next year, with a potential valuation of $1 trillion [2][3] - The company has completed a corporate restructuring to facilitate the IPO process, achieving a valuation of $500 billion in a recent employee stock sale [3] - OpenAI's CEO, Sam Altman, emphasized the urgent need for funding, with a commitment of $1.4 trillion for infrastructure development [4] Funding Strategy - OpenAI is exploring various funding avenues, including financing rounds and debt, with the IPO being the most likely path to raise at least $60 billion [5] - The company is focused on building a sustainable business model while advancing its mission to ensure that everyone benefits from Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) [3]

🗞️ Need to catch up on the news? Here's our top 10 from today:🔸 OpenAI is preparing for a potential IPO with a valuation exceeding $1 trillion, which would rank among the largest public offerings in history, Reuters reports.🔹 MetaMask maker Consensys selects JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs as lead underwriters for its IPO, per Axios.🔸 Powell said the lack of data during the shutdown could limit economic visibility and affect the Fed’s December decision.🔹 Bitcoin dropped to $109,200 after the Fed’s 0.25% rate cut ...

Market Performance - The market experienced a rebound on October 29, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising above 4000 points. The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 2.26 trillion yuan, an increase of 108.2 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day. The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.7%, the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 1.95%, and the ChiNext Index surged by 2.93%. The Communication ETF (515880) also saw a rise of 1.89% [1][2]. Short-term Outlook - Positive signals in China-U.S. relations have alleviated significant valuation pressures. Recent economic discussions between Chinese and U.S. officials in Kuala Lumpur focused on key trade issues, leading to a basic consensus on resolving mutual concerns [2]. - A busy week for earnings reports is expected, with major companies in sectors like optical modules, PCB, and ODM yet to release their Q3 financial results. There is a strong possibility of growth in the performance of leading companies in these sectors [2]. Company Insights - NVIDIA's CEO announced at the GTC conference that the company expects to ship 20 million units of the Blackwell-Rubin architecture between 2025 and 2026, projecting approximately $500 billion in data center revenue visibility. This suggests NVIDIA could achieve over $300 billion in revenue by 2026, significantly exceeding current market expectations [3]. - Google reported a Q3 revenue of $102.35 billion, a 16% year-over-year increase, with net profit rising by 33% to $34.98 billion. Google Cloud revenue grew by 35% to $15.16 billion, surpassing market expectations [5][12]. - Microsoft’s Q1 FY26 revenue reached $77.7 billion, a 4% year-over-year increase, with cloud revenue growing by 28% to $30.9 billion. Capital expenditures for the quarter were $34.9 billion, exceeding market expectations [12][13]. - Meta's Q3 revenue was $51.24 billion, a 26% year-over-year increase, slightly above market expectations. The company anticipates significant capital expenditure increases in 2026 [15]. Long-term Outlook - The AI infrastructure investment model is shifting from self-funded to financed investments, with an expected increase in hardware shipments. OpenAI's recent activities indicate a growing demand for computing power, which may lead to accelerated AI infrastructure development [18]. - The international macroeconomic environment is improving, suggesting further liquidity enhancements. AI is expected to remain a core driver of market growth, with opportunities in the equity market likely to persist in the medium to long term [18][19]. Product Characteristics - The Communication ETF has a core content of 21%, effectively representing the fundamentals of overseas products. As of October 28, optical modules accounted for 52% of the ETF, while servers made up 22%, totaling 81% when combined with fiber and copper connections [20][21]. - The Communication ETF's underlying index has shown a year-to-date increase of 117.17%, leading its peers in performance [22][23].

Core Viewpoint - The current AI trend is not a bubble but a genuine and long-term productivity revolution, as stated by Coatue in their latest secondary market report [1][2]. Market Analysis - The AI sector has been a core driver of growth in the U.S. stock market since the launch of ChatGPT in November 2022, with AI-related companies in the S&P 500 achieving a return of 165% over nearly three years, significantly outperforming the overall index return of 68% and the 24% return of non-AI companies [3]. - The growth of AI has expanded beyond the "Mag 7" companies, with AI-related returns in 2025 exceeding those of the Mag 7 for the first time, indicating a broader market penetration [6][8]. Sector Performance - AI sectors such as energy, semiconductors, and software have shown returns significantly higher than the Mag 7, with AI energy achieving a 53% return in 2025 YTD, three times that of the Mag 7 [8][12]. - The AI industry's growth is transitioning from being driven solely by algorithmic breakthroughs to include innovations in energy supply, semiconductor manufacturing, and data infrastructure [12]. Consumer Resilience - Strong consumer fundamentals have alleviated concerns about economic recession, providing crucial support for corporate earnings and financial assets [13]. Historical Context - Historical analysis indicates a 48% probability of continued market growth in 2026, based on past performance of the S&P 500 after three consecutive years of growth [15]. - Long-term holding strategies are emphasized, as premature selling during periods of high growth can lead to significant opportunity costs [18][20]. AI Bubble Characteristics - Coatue defines a bubble as a state where asset prices significantly exceed intrinsic value, driven by speculation and investor behavior. The current AI investment trend resembles characteristics of both stock market and infrastructure bubbles [21][25]. AI Adoption Concerns - Market skepticism regarding AI includes concerns about inflation, high valuations, concentration of AI winners, and capital expenditures. However, Coatue counters these concerns with data showing a decline in inflation expectations and a sustainable growth trajectory for AI companies [31][35][41][52]. AI Profitability Framework - Coatue outlines a profitability framework for AI, highlighting both direct and indirect benefits, such as revenue increases from AI products and cost savings from operational efficiencies [89]. - The potential for AI revenues to grow tenfold in the next 5-10 years, reaching $1 trillion in profits, is projected, with AI expected to account for 4% of global corporate profits [98]. Market Signals - Current IPO activity and leverage levels indicate that the equity market is not exhibiting bubble-like characteristics, although high retail investor leverage poses potential risks [102][106]. AI Infrastructure Focus - The AI infrastructure sector has outperformed software sectors since the launch of ChatGPT, with significant returns in semiconductor indices compared to cloud software indices [107][109]. - The rise of AI applications is also noted, with several private AI application companies achieving valuations exceeding $5 billion, indicating a shift towards scalable AI solutions [111]. Investment Principles - Coatue emphasizes the importance of long-term investment strategies in AI, advising against premature selling and highlighting the need to monitor private market dynamics for early signs of industry changes [124][125].

智通财经APP获悉，媒体周三援引消息人士的话报道称，人工智能初创公司OpenAI准备最早于明年提 交首次公开募股申请(IPO)，这可能使该公司市值达到 1 万亿美元。该媒体称，该公司正在为有史以来 规模最大的IPO之一做准备，并考虑最早于2026年下半年向监管机构提交文件。报道称，该公司已讨论 过通过IPO筹集至少 600 亿美元。与此同时，微软(MSFT.US)与OpenAI宣布签署新协议，微软宣布将支 持OpenAI推进其营利部门OpenAI Group PBC(OpenAI集团公共利益公司)的组建和资本重组。 OpenAI发言人在一份声明中表示："IPO并非我们的重点，因此我们不可能设定上市日期。我们正在打 造一家可持续发展的企业，并推进我们的使命，让所有人都能从通用人工智能(AGI)中受益。"通用人工 智能(AGI)是一种能够在大多数具有经济价值的任务中超越人类的技术。 据两位了解此事的人士透露，非营利组织董事会成员无权解雇OpenAI 的盈利业务部门的管理人员。这 是一个关键细节，因为两年前正是该公司内部的一个不同规模的非营利组织董事会解雇了奥特曼，从而 引发了公司的混乱局面。 非营利组织 Lati ...

Q&A 工业富联在 2025 年三季度的财务表现如何？ 工业富联在 2025 年三季度的财务表现符合预期。前三季度收入为 6,039 亿元， 同比增长 38%；归母净利润为 224.87 亿元，同比增长 45%。单三季度营收 为 2,432 亿元，同比增长 42.8%；单三季度归母净利润为 103.73 亿元，同比 增长 62%。其中，云计算业务增长显著，前三季度同比增长 65%，单三季度 同比增长 75%。 工业富联 20251029 摘要 工业富联前三季度营收 432 亿元，同比增长 42.8%，单三季度归母净 利润 103.73 亿元，同比增长 62%，云计算业务增长显著，前三季度同 比增长 65%，单三季度同比增长 75%，主要受益于云服务商客户占比 提升。 2025 年第三季度末存货达 1,646 亿元，环比增长 417 亿元，同比增长 737,443 亿元，预示未来增长潜力。预计四季度出货量或超 7,000 个机 柜，带动四季度收入增速超 83%，全年收入增速或超 50%。 OpenAI 与英伟达、AMD 和博通签署总计 26G 瓦规模合同，对应潜在 需求超 1 万亿美元，将推动算力行业高景气度， ...

Group 1: Nvidia's Milestone - Nvidia has become the first publicly traded company to surpass a market capitalization of $5 trillion, reaching $5.05 trillion [1] - The company achieved this milestone in just 113 days after crossing the $4 trillion mark, compared to 410 days from $3 trillion to $4 trillion [1] - Nvidia's stock has rebounded over 135% since its low in April, with a total market value increase of $2.9 trillion this year, and the stock price has risen 54% year-to-date [1] Group 2: Alphabet's Financial Performance - Alphabet reported third-quarter revenue of $102.35 billion, exceeding expectations of $99.85 billion [2] - The net profit for the third quarter was $35 billion, a 33% year-over-year increase, surpassing the expected $27.81 billion [2] - The Gemini app has over 650 million monthly active users, indicating strong user engagement [2] Group 3: Meta's Earnings - Meta's third-quarter revenue reached $51.24 billion, a 26% year-over-year increase, exceeding the forecast of $49.59 billion [2] - The operating profit for Meta was $20.54 billion, up 18% year-over-year [2] - Meta expects fourth-quarter revenue to be between $56 billion and $59 billion, with market expectations at $57.38 billion [2] Group 4: Microsoft's Financial Results - Microsoft's first fiscal quarter revenue was $77.67 billion, an 18% year-over-year increase, surpassing the expected $75.55 billion [2] - The net profit for Microsoft was $27.747 billion, a 12% increase from the previous year [2] - Earnings per share were reported at $3.72, exceeding the expected $3.66 [2] Group 5: OpenAI's IPO Plans - OpenAI plans to submit an IPO application as early as the second half of 2026, with a potential valuation of around $1 trillion [3] - The company aims to raise at least $60 billion through the IPO [3] Group 6: Nvidia's AI Chip Supply Agreements - Nvidia is set to sign supply agreements for AI chips with South Korean companies including Samsung and SK Group [5] - The CEO of Nvidia will attend the APEC CEO Summit in South Korea, where these agreements are expected to be announced [5] Group 7: Xiaomi's AI Development - Xiaomi has registered software copyright for its AI assistant system "AI Xiao Su - Smart Number" [5] - The company, established in November 2021, focuses on electric vehicle manufacturing and technology development [5] Group 8: Tencent's Interactive AI Podcast - Tencent's Mix Yuan has launched the first interactive AI podcast in China, allowing listeners to ask questions during the show [6] - The podcast utilizes advanced AI capabilities for context understanding and multi-turn dialogue [6]

Core Viewpoint - OpenAI has completed a significant restructuring of its capital structure, transitioning from a controversial "profit cap" model to a Public Benefit Corporation (PBC), which facilitates future financing and IPO opportunities [1][5]. Group 1: Company Identity Changes - OpenAI has rebranded its non-profit entity from OpenAI Inc. to OpenAI Foundation, while the profit-making entity has changed from OpenAI Global, LLC to OpenAI Group PBC, simplifying its ownership structure [1][5]. - The new structure allows for direct shareholding by the OpenAI Foundation, Microsoft, other investors, and employees, moving away from a complex multi-layered system [1]. Group 2: Profit Distribution Changes - The profit-sharing model has shifted from a "fixed bonus" system to an "unlimited dividend" system, where investors and employees can receive dividends based on their ownership percentage in OpenAI Group PBC, directly linking payouts to the company's profitability [4][5]. - OpenAI Foundation retains approximately 26% of the shares in OpenAI Group PBC but holds special voting and governance rights, allowing it to appoint all board members and maintain control over the company [4][5]. Group 3: Implications of the Restructuring - The restructuring clarifies the company's structure and interests, enhancing its potential for significant financing capabilities, which raises the competitive bar in the AGI race [5]. - Notably, OpenAI disclosed that its founder, Sam Altman, does not hold any equity in the restructured company, aligning his interests with OpenAI's mission of technology accessibility rather than personal wealth accumulation [2].