证券研究报告 | 公司点评报告 2026 年 02 月 05 日 完美世界（002624.SZ） 25 年全年扭亏为盈，游戏业务重回增长轨道 TMT 及中小盘/传媒 公司发布 2025 年年度业绩预告：预计 2025 年度实现归母净利润 7.2-7.6 亿元， 同比扭亏为盈（2024 年亏损 12.88 亿元）；预计实现归母扣非净利润 5.6-6.0 亿元，同比扭亏为盈（2024 年亏损 13.13 亿元）。 单季度看，2025 年第四季度归母净利润预计为 0.54-0.94 亿元，同比扭亏为盈 （2024 年 Q4 亏损 9.0 亿元）；第四季度预计实现归母扣非净利润 0.8-1.2 亿 元，同比扭亏为盈（2024 年 Q4 亏损 8.6 亿元）。报告期内非经常性损益预计 约 1.6 亿元，主要系 Q1 出售乘风工作室产生的处置收益及政府补助。 强烈推荐（维持） 目标估值：NA 当前股价：17.51 元 基础数据 | 总股本（百万股） | 1940 | | --- | --- | | 已上市流通股（百万股） | 1828 | | 总市值（十亿元） | 34.0 | | 流通市值（十亿元） | 32.0 | ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook for the gaming industry [5] Core Insights - The application of AI in the gaming industry is transitioning from B2B to B2C, with expectations for sustained capacity and traffic growth for evergreen games on the B2B side, while B2C games with high daily active users (DAU) are expected to see significant increases in both content and DAU through user co-creation driven by natural language AI game engines [3][12] - The report highlights the importance of companies with advantages in gaming channels and large DAU products, such as Tencent Holdings, Xindong Company, Century Huatong, Giant Network, and NetEase, as well as those with key project reserves like 37 Interactive Entertainment and Perfect World [3][12] Summary by Sections 1. AIGC and Policy Resonance Driving High Growth in Gaming Revenue - In 2025, China's gaming industry sales revenue is projected to reach 350.8 billion, with an 8% year-on-year growth, significantly outperforming the retail sector's 3.7% growth [15] - The AI-driven evergreen games are extending their lifecycle, with major titles like "Honor of Kings" and "Crossfire" achieving historical highs during the Spring Festival [15] 2. Trends in the Gaming Industry for 2026 - AI game editors are beginning to deliver results, with a long-term positive outlook for platform-based companies [29] - A price war is expected to restart in 2026, with low ARPU games showing stronger resilience against macroeconomic headwinds [38] - The revival of PC games is deepening, with an increasing proportion of cross-platform products [45] 3. Investment Recommendations - Companies with advantages in channels and large DAU products are highlighted, including Tencent Holdings, which is expected to see significant growth from its AI engine-driven games [60][61] - Other companies to watch include Xindong Company, Giant Network, and Kyeing Network, each with promising projects and growth potential [60][61]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share film and television stocks have collectively strengthened, with Hengdian Film rising to the daily limit and Light Media increasing by over 8%, which has driven the film and television ETF to rise by over 2% [1] Group 1: Market Trends - The film and television ETF tracks the CSI Film and Television Theme Index, covering 50 quality listed companies across the film and television industry chain, including major players like Light Media, Perfect World, and Oriental Pearl [1] - As of February 4, seven films have been scheduled for release during the Spring Festival, with six of them debuting on the first day of the new year [2] - The Spring Festival holiday this year starts on February 15 and lasts for nine days, setting a historical record and providing ample space for box office releases [3] Group 2: Future Projections - CITIC Securities is optimistic about the box office levels for the 2026 Spring Festival based on current film reserves, noting that the box office for the Spring Festival has been continuously hitting new highs in recent years due to longer holiday durations and a concentration of top films [3] - Wanlian Securities highlights that AI is a transformative technology with significant potential across various media sub-industries, driving new market developments [3] Group 3: Industry Innovations - AI is empowering various stages of film production, significantly reducing costs, with AI manhua (comic adaptations) gaining market attention as a new form of audiovisual content [4] - The film sector's market dynamics are driven by several factors, including blockbuster films, the release of AI video model products, favorable policies, and the emergence of new sub-genres like AI manhua [4] Group 4: Market Recovery - Southwest Securities predicts a resurgence in long videos alongside the continued popularity of short dramas and AI manhua, with the free micro-short drama market expected to reach approximately 53.3 billion yuan in 2025, a 113% increase from 2024 [5] - The television drama industry is anticipated to experience a recovery due to the "21 regulations" policy, with a focus on micro-short dramas and the development of the AI manhua industry [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook for the gaming industry [5] Core Insights - The application of AI in the gaming industry is transitioning from B2B to B2C, with expectations for sustained capacity and traffic growth for evergreen games on the B2B side, and significant content and DAU growth for large DAU games utilizing natural language AI game engines on the B2C side [3][12] - The report highlights the importance of companies with advantages in gaming channels and large DAU products, such as Tencent Holdings, Xindong Company, Century Huatong, Giant Network, and NetEase [3][12] - The report suggests focusing on companies with key project reserves this year, including 37 Interactive Entertainment and Perfect World [3][12] Summary by Sections 1. AIGC and Policy Resonance Driving High Growth in Gaming Industry Revenue - In 2025, China's gaming industry sales revenue is projected to reach 350.8 billion, with an 8% year-on-year growth, significantly outperforming the retail sales growth of 3.7% [15] - The AI-driven evergreen games are experiencing extended lifecycles, with historical highs achieved during the 2025 Q1 Spring Festival [15] 2. Trends in the Gaming Industry for 2026 - Trend 1: AI game editors are beginning to deliver results, with a long-term positive outlook for platform-based companies [29] - Trend 2: A price war is expected to restart in 2026, with low ARPU games showing stronger resilience against macroeconomic headwinds [38] - Trend 3: The revival of PC games is deepening, with an increasing share of cross-platform products [45] 3. Investment Recommendations - Companies with advantages in channels and large DAU products include Tencent Holdings, Xindong Company, Giant Network, and NetEase [12][60] - Companies with key project reserves to watch include 37 Interactive Entertainment and Perfect World [12][60]

Core Viewpoint - The film and television ETF (516620) has shown a strong performance with an increase of over 1.6% amidst overall market fluctuations, driven by continuous improvement in the film and television industry's fundamentals and multiple favorable factors [1] Policy Environment - The national government is actively promoting the integration of "artificial intelligence + audiovisual" industries, while local governments are introducing special policies to support the development of new formats such as digital audiovisual and micro-short dramas. The Ministry of Finance has also allocated film special funds in advance, providing substantial policy and financial support for the industry. Content regulation is becoming more standardized, ensuring the supply of quality content and continuously optimizing the industry development environment [2] Supply Side - After industry adjustments, film and television companies are focusing more on content quality, with a trend towards premiumization. The box office for films at the beginning of 2026 has surpassed 2 billion, with pre-sales for the Spring Festival reaching a record high of 4.4 billion. Anticipated blockbuster films like "Fast Life 3" and "Silent Awakening" are expected to contribute over 70% of the box office during the period. AI technology is being integrated into all aspects of scriptwriting, production, and post-production, significantly reducing costs and improving efficiency, while new technologies like virtual production are accelerating industry development [3] Demand Side - With a rebound in consumer confidence, offline entertainment consumption is experiencing explosive growth, with the film market and performance economy both showing significant increases. Concert and drama box office revenues have exceeded 60 billion, and there is a high demand for studio bookings. The integration of film IP with offline consumption scenarios is becoming increasingly close, with diverse monetization models such as derivative product development and immersive experiences further expanding the industry's growth potential [4] Investment Opportunities - The current investment opportunities in the film and television industry possess both short-term event-driven explosive potential and long-term fundamental growth. The strong lineup and diverse themes of films for the 2026 Spring Festival are expected to drive performance growth across the entire industry chain, providing clear short-term catalysts. Long-term, the deep application of AI and IP monetization will lead to a "capacity revolution," improving production efficiency and reducing costs, while the long-term value of quality IP will be maximized through various monetization avenues. The acceleration of short dramas and overseas content expansion is also opening new growth avenues for the industry [5] Fund Flow - The film and television ETF (516620) has seen continuous net subscriptions, with a single-day increase of 9 million shares on February 4, bringing the total to 144 million shares, indicating a clear intention for low-price positioning. The sustained inflow of funds is further strengthening the sector, creating a positive cycle of "rising prices - fund inflow - further rising prices." The overall valuation of the film and television sector is at a relatively low historical level, while the continuous improvement in fundamentals and strong performance growth certainty provide significant valuation recovery potential. In a market environment with rising risk appetite, the low-valuation, high-growth film and television sector has become a preferred target for funds [6] - The film and television ETF (516620) tracks the CSI Film and Television Theme Index, covering 50 quality listed companies across the film, television, and online drama production, distribution, operation, and cinema sectors, heavily investing in industry leaders such as Light Media, Perfect World, and Oriental Pearl, allowing investors to gain exposure to the entire industry chain and diversify individual stock investment risks [6]

2月5日，游戏板块早盘表现略微震荡，游戏ETF（159869）现小幅微涨近0.2%，持仓股涨跌互现，光线 传媒（300251）、天舟文化（300148）、实丰文化（002862）、完美世界（002624）、华立科技 （301011）、奥飞娱乐（002292）等涨幅居前，顺网科技（300113）、宝通科技（300031）、恺英网络 （002517）、浙数文化（600633）等跌幅居前。截至2月4日，游戏ETF（159869）规模已达137.14亿 元。 游戏板块具备AI、内容、商业化模式变革多点催化，游戏ETF（159869）跟踪中证动漫游戏指数，AI应 用含量全市场第一，精准覆盖A股动漫游戏产业的整体表现，当前游戏板块正受到政策利好+产品周期 +AI赋能的多重催化热潮，或可聚焦游戏赛道布局窗口。 近期，一个名为Clawbot的开源AI智能体网关在开发者社区引发热潮，它允许用户通过Telegram等消息 应用发送指令，直接控制后台大模型生成脚本并在本地电脑执行用户的日常规律性任务。Clawbot将所 有交互记录与学习内容以本地文件形式存储，并利用检索增强生成技术实现连贯的长期上下文记忆，一 方面保护用户数据隐私 ...

Group 1 - The short drama gaming sector is active in the morning session, with Hengdian Film and Television (603103) achieving "5 boards in 6 days," and stocks like Yaowang Technology and Zhejiang Wenyi reaching the daily limit [1] - The Fujian sector saw a rapid rise, with Pingtan Development and Kuncai Technology hitting the daily limit, while Haixia Innovation surged over 12%, and stocks like Lupu Information and Xiamen Port also experienced gains [2][3] Group 2 - Notable stocks in the Fujian sector include Haixia Innovation at 13.65 (+12.81%), Pingtan Development at 11.83 (+10.05%), and Kuncai Technology at 19.46 (+10.01%) [3] - The market is closely monitoring the rotation of hot sectors to capture signals of sector movements and track the direction of main capital [4]

Group 1 - The short drama gaming sector experienced an initial rise, with companies such as Youku Technology and Zhejiang Wenyi Media hitting the daily limit up [1] - Other companies that followed suit include Hengdian Film and Television, Zhejiang Wenhua Internet, Tiandi Online, Kunlun Wanwei, and Perfect World [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Xinhua 500 Index (989001) closed at 5296.02 points on February 4, reflecting a gain of 0.76% [1]. Group 1: Index Performance - The Xinhua 500 Index opened lower on the morning of February 4, experienced fluctuations throughout the day, and saw a slight increase in the afternoon [2]. - The index reached a high of 5299.59 points and a low of 5231.48 points during the trading session [2]. - The total trading volume of constituent stocks was reported at 895.7 billion yuan, which is a decrease compared to the previous trading day [2]. Group 2: Constituent Stocks - Notable gainers among the constituent stocks included JinkoSolar, Jingcheng Machinery Electric, Jianlong Hardware, and Yanzhou Coal Mining [2]. - Stocks that experienced significant declines included Lanke Technology, Perfect World, Dongshan Precision, and Zhongji Xuchuang [2].

成分股方面，晶科能源、晶盛机电、坚朗五金、兖矿能源等成分股涨幅居前；澜起科技、完美世界、东山精密、中际旭创等成分股跌幅靠前。 新华500指数由国家金融信息平台•新华财经发布，新华指数（北京）有限公司运营维护，指数度量A股主要大中市值股票价格水平。关于新华500指数的详 细信息，请参见新华财经客户端。 转自：新华财经 新华财经北京2月4日电（胡晨曦）新华500指数（989001）2月4日收盘涨0.76%，报5296.02点。 走势上看，新华500指数（989001）4日早间低开，随后指数震荡整理，午后指数震荡拉升，最终小幅收涨。指数盘中最高触及5299.59点，最低触及5231.48 点，成分股全天总成交额报8957亿元，成交额较上一交易日有所减少。 编辑：罗浩 ...