香港交易及結算所有限公司及香港聯合交易所有限公司對本公告之內容概不負責，對其準確性或完整性亦不發表 任何聲明，並明確表示，概不就因本公告全部或任何部份內容而產生或因倚賴該等內容而引致之任何損失承擔任 何責任。 本公告僅為提供信息之目的，並不構成收購、購買或認購證券的一項邀請或要約。 本公告並不構成或組成在美國境內購買或認購證券的任何要約或招攬的一部分。證券及證券擔保未曾及將不會根 據經修訂一九三三年美國證券法（「證券法」）或美國任何州或其他司法權區的證券法登記。證券及證券擔保乃根據 證券法S規例在美國境外提呈發售及出售，且不得在未有根據證券法登記或獲證券法豁免登記的情況下在美國境 內提呈發售或出售。將不會在美國境內或進行有關發售即屬限制或禁止的任何其他司法權區公開發售證券或證券 擔保。 （在香港註冊成立的有限公司） （股份代號：00123） 公 告 建議發行人民幣1,735,000,000元於二○二九年 到期之3.40厘有擔保綠色票據 本公告乃根據上市規則第13.18條刊發。 董事會謹此宣佈，於二○二六年一月三十日，發行人（作為發行人）、本公司（作為擔保人）及 聯席牽頭經辦人（作為聯席牽頭經辦人）訂立認購協議 ...

Group 1 - The real estate market in January 2026 showed a total sales amount of 190.5 billion yuan for the top 100 real estate companies, reflecting an 18.9% year-on-year decline, which aligns with market expectations given the high base from the previous year [1] - Leading companies such as Poly Developments, China Overseas Land & Investment, and China Resources Land ranked first in sales, achieving sales of 15.6 billion yuan, 14.47 billion yuan, and 11.65 billion yuan respectively, indicating strong market competitiveness among state-owned enterprises and quality developers during the market adjustment period [1] - The number of companies with sales exceeding 10 billion yuan increased, with three companies surpassing 10 billion yuan and ten companies exceeding 5 billion yuan in sales, indicating a positive change in the sales structure of the industry [1] Group 2 - The sales quality of real estate companies is improving, with leading firms focusing on high-end and upgraded products, as evidenced by average transaction prices exceeding 20,000 yuan per square meter for top companies, and specific firms like Binjiang Group achieving over 50,000 yuan per square meter in targeted markets [2] - The concept of "good housing" is gaining traction, leading to increased consumer focus on living quality and long-term value, which will drive companies to invest more in product design, construction quality, and delivery assurance, making product strength a key factor in sales performance [2] - In January 2026, the top 100 real estate companies had a total land acquisition amount of 57.99 billion yuan, reflecting a more rational land acquisition strategy focused on project safety margins and investment quality [2] Group 3 - Market expectations are gradually recovering due to ongoing policy support, but there is a need for coordinated efforts from both demand and supply sides to effectively reverse market expectations [3] - As the Spring Festival approaches, real estate companies are expected to increase marketing efforts, and the introduction of quality projects may sustain a certain level of activity in core city real estate markets [3]

证券研究报告 关注节后成交走势，三重对比港资房企 向上空间仍存 地产行业周报 行业评级：地产 强于大市（维持） 平安证券研究所地产团队 2026年2月1日 请务必阅读正文后免责条款 1 核心摘要 2 周度观点：春节后到3月为楼市下一个重要观察节点，优质房企中期维度仍具备性价比。随着近期二手房市场成交回暖，本周市场对地产 关注度仍在升温，但对后续看法呈现分化。我们认为短期随着春节逐步临近，市场成交或趋于回落，节后到3月将是楼市下一个重要观察 节点。从板块投资来看，我们仍维持上周观点，在短期二手房成交淡季不淡、房企业绩压力提前释放、政策端不断释放积极信号等背景 下，中期维度来看优质房企已有一定配置价值。 全年看好港资房企，三重维度对比向上仍有空间。1月港资房企表现靓丽，我们持续提示的新鸿基地产、恒基地产、信和置业单月涨幅达 32.7%、10.6%、15.3%，市场对于香港楼市延续上行逐步形成共识，更关注后续个股空间，我们认为港资房企上行空间仍存：1）以新鸿 基地产为例，目前PB为0.59倍，仍低于业务模式（开发+持有）类似的华润置地（0.72PB），但香港楼市已经企稳，内地楼市仍在探底； 2）上轮香港楼市调整于2 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the real estate sector [2] Core Insights - The report highlights a rebound in new home sales, with a significant increase in transaction volumes and areas sold in key cities, indicating a recovery in market demand [5][7] - Local government policies in Guangdong and Nanjing aim to stabilize the real estate market and enhance housing quality, which is expected to support sales growth [14][16] - The report emphasizes the importance of financially stable real estate companies and suggests focusing on leading firms that can effectively navigate market fluctuations [7] Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Market Review - The Shenwan Real Estate Index fell by 2.21%, while the CSI 300 Index rose by 0.08%, indicating underperformance of the real estate sector compared to the broader market [4][12] 2. Industry Fundamentals - For the week of January 23-29, the total number of new homes sold in 38 key cities reached 23,510 units, a year-on-year increase of 75.2% and a month-on-month increase of 17.1% [5][21] - The total area sold was 2.21 million square meters, with a year-on-year increase of 46.9% and a month-on-month increase of 19.4% [21] - In the same week, the total number of second-hand homes sold in 16 key cities was 20,208 units, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 170.8% but a month-on-month decrease of 3% [32][35] 3. Land Market Supply and Transactions - Land supply for the week was 2,166.4 million square meters, with a year-on-year increase of 3%, while the average supply price was 1,636 yuan per square meter, up 110.3% year-on-year [6] - Land transactions totaled 1,183.6 million square meters, down 34% year-on-year, with a transaction value of 16.23 billion yuan, a decrease of 20.7% year-on-year [6] 4. Financing Analysis - Real estate companies issued a total of 5.55 billion yuan in credit bonds during the week, marking a year-on-year increase of 224.4% but a month-on-month decrease of 56.4% [6]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Buy" [3] Core Views - The real estate market is entering a traditional off-season, with expectations for stronger policy support [3] - In January, the transaction volume of second-hand homes outperformed new homes, indicating a preference for second-hand properties due to better value [8] - The performance of the real estate sector has improved recently, driven by marginal improvements in transaction data and expectations for policy changes [8] Summary by Sections Recent Industry Performance - Over the past 12 months, the relative return compared to the CSI 300 index has been -9%, while the absolute return has been +15% [4] - In January, the transaction volume of second-hand homes in core cities showed significant year-on-year growth, while new home transactions remained weak [5][6] Key City Insights - Beijing: Second-hand home transactions increased by 397% year-on-year, while new home transactions rose by 565% [5] - Shanghai: Second-hand home transactions increased by 806% year-on-year, while new home transactions rose by 525% [6] - Shenzhen: Second-hand home transactions increased by 15% year-on-year, but new home transactions decreased by 64% [6] National Trends - In 30 major cities, the transaction area for new homes increased by 109% year-on-year, but decreased by 26.66% when adjusted for the Spring Festival [7] - The transaction area for second-hand homes increased by 309% year-on-year, with a 12% increase in cumulative transactions for January [7] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on leading real estate companies with land reserves in core cities and high-end improvement products, such as Poly Developments [8] - It also recommends head intermediary firms like I Love My Home, which are expected to benefit from the increasing share of second-hand home transactions [8]

导 读 1、土地成交规模处于季节性低位 2、百强门槛均较同期下滑 3、投资TOP100拿地金额同比降幅近五成 4、供地"窗口期"开启后土拍热度有望回升 | | 金地集团 | | | --- | --- | --- | | 12 | 保利发展 | 22.7 | | 14 | 龙湖集团 | 20. 4 | | 15 | 青铁置业 | 20. 3 20 | | 16 | 和润达开发建设 | 18.9 | | 17 | 四川城更 | 18.5 | | 18 22 11 | 浙江博策 | 17.520 | | 19 | 如东新天顺 | 16.9 | | 19 | 扬州城建 | 16.9 | | 219 | 滨海城更 | 16 3 | | 22 | 汇龙地产 | 15.4 | | 23 | 宜兴经开投资 | 15.3 | | -74 | 湖南大雷投资 | 15 7 | | 25 | 阜宁城建 | 14.7 | | 26 | 元垄地产 | 14.6 | | -27 | 锦诚汇龙房地产 | 14.1 | | 28 | 金洲房地产 | 13.2 | | 29 | 如东荣能实业 | 12.8 | | CF30 | 信阳国信发展 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the real estate industry, indicating a positive outlook for the sector despite current performance pressures [3][4]. Core Insights - Mainstream real estate companies are forecasting a decline or losses in 2025, but the report suggests that the most challenging period may be coming to an end. The report highlights significant declines in new construction and second-hand housing prices, indicating that the industry is nearing a bottom [3][4]. - The central government has emphasized stabilizing the real estate market, with recent policy statements reflecting a more proactive approach to addressing risks and supporting the sector [3][4]. - While overall performance for mainstream real estate companies is expected to remain under pressure in 2025, the report anticipates a recovery in profitability for quality firms, driven by improved sales and operational performance [3][4]. Summary by Sections Performance Forecasts - Major companies are expected to report significant losses in 2025, with Vanke A forecasting a loss of 82 billion RMB and China Overseas Development projecting a decline of 20% to 0% in net profit [4][6]. - The report categorizes companies based on expected profit growth rates, with some firms like Binjiang Group and New Town Holdings expected to see slight growth, while others like China Jinmao and Vanke A are projected to incur substantial losses [6][7]. Asset and Credit Impairment - The report details the cumulative asset and credit impairment losses for major firms, indicating that some companies have experienced significant write-downs, with New Town Holdings at 27% and Goldfield Group at 25% of their inventory [5][6]. Valuation Metrics - The report provides valuation metrics for major real estate companies, showing that many are trading at historical lows in terms of price-to-book ratios, suggesting potential investment opportunities [7][8]. - The average price-to-earnings ratio for the sector is noted, with some companies like Poly Development and Binjiang Group showing varying earnings per share forecasts for 2025 and 2026 [7][8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the real estate and property management sectors, indicating a positive outlook for quality commercial real estate and potential value reassessment [4][6]. Core Insights - The first batch of three commercial real estate REITs has been accepted by the CSRC, covering underlying assets such as office buildings, hotels, and outlet malls. The expected fundraising sizes are CNY 4.002 billion for Huatai Fu Shanghai Real Estate REIT, CNY 7.47 billion for CICC Vipshop REIT, and CNY 1.703 billion for Huaan Jinjiang REIT, with projected cash distribution rates of 4.50%, 4.57%, and 5.05% respectively for 2026 [2][4][5]. - The rapid advancement of commercial real estate REITs by the CSRC is expected to lead to a broader range of participants and faster approvals in the future. This contrasts with the slower progress seen in infrastructure REITs under the NDRC [4][5]. - The establishment of a multi-tiered market for commercial real estate asset securitization is anticipated to activate existing assets, mitigate risks, and assist in corporate transformation. This will provide new financing channels and enhance the visibility of asset values [4][5]. - The report highlights two significant opportunities: the reassessment of quality commercial real estate values and the strength of premium products in core cities, suggesting that further supportive policies for the real estate market are likely to emerge [4][6]. Summary by Sections REITs Overview - The first three commercial real estate REITs cover assets including office buildings and hotels, with expected fundraising sizes of CNY 40.02 billion, CNY 74.7 billion, and CNY 17.03 billion, and cash distribution rates projected at 4.50%, 4.57%, and 5.05% for 2026 respectively [4][5]. Differences Between REITs - The report outlines key differences between NDRC and CSRC REITs, including the asset ownership structure, approval processes, and types of underlying assets, indicating a shift towards including private enterprises in the CSRC REITs [4][5]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends several companies for investment, including New Town Holdings, China Resources Land, Kerry Properties, Longfor Group, and others in the commercial real estate sector, as well as quality property management firms [4][6].

Core Viewpoint - The second-hand housing market in core cities has shown signs of recovery, with the top 100 real estate companies achieving a sales turnover of 165.45 billion yuan in January 2026, indicating a positive trend in the market [1][16][17]. Group 1: Sales Performance - The top 100 real estate companies achieved a sales turnover of 165.45 billion yuan in January 2026, which is a significant performance indicator for the industry [16][17]. - Among the top 100 companies, 32 reported year-on-year growth in sales, with 10 companies experiencing growth rates exceeding 100% [26][27]. - Notably, companies like Junyi Holdings and Bontai Group saw substantial increases in sales, attributed to strategic investments made since 2021 [28][29]. Group 2: Market Trends - The new housing market is experiencing a slowdown, while the second-hand housing market is showing signs of recovery, with a 16% month-on-month increase in transaction volume for second-hand homes in key cities [31][32]. - The central government has introduced various supportive policies aimed at revitalizing the real estate market, including financial support measures and tax incentives, which are expected to stimulate demand, particularly in the second-hand housing sector [33]. Group 3: Company Rankings - In January 2026, the top companies by sales included Poly Development (15.6 billion yuan), China Overseas Property (14.48 billion yuan), and China Resources Land (11.65 billion yuan) [8]. - Seven new companies entered the top 100 list, with CITIC City Development making a notable entry into the top 30 [23][24]. Group 4: Policy Impact - The government has focused on urban renewal and financing optimization, which are expected to enhance the market's stability and encourage investment in real estate [33]. - The central bank's monetary policy adjustments, including a reduction in the re-lending rate and changes to down payment requirements for commercial properties, are designed to alleviate financial pressures on real estate companies [33].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" and has been maintained from the previous rating [6] Core Views - The report is optimistic about the real estate sector's moderate recovery and emphasizes opportunities within the industry chain, particularly in real estate, building materials, and consumer sectors [5][10] - There has been a notable rebound in second-hand housing transactions since January, attributed to factors such as the late Spring Festival, wealth spillover effects from the stock market, and a mismatch in supply and demand due to significant price drops at the end of last year [9][10] - The report suggests that if supportive policies are introduced post-holiday, the market could continue to improve into May and June, with a favorable outlook for real estate stocks and related sectors [10] Summary by Sections Real Estate - The report highlights a rebound in second-hand housing transactions, with a focus on the key recommendation of Beike for second-hand housing and several developers including Binhai Group, New Town Holdings, and Yuexiu Property [11][12] - The report notes that while new home sales have not shown significant recovery, developers are encouraged by the cancellation of the "three red lines" policy, which is expected to benefit new home sales in the long run [11] Building Materials - The report recommends Oriental Yuhong, a leading company in the waterproofing industry, which is expected to benefit from industry recovery and improved operational quality [14][21] - The company is focusing on overseas expansion and has seen a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 37% in overseas revenue from 2020 to 2024, indicating a strong growth potential [15] - The report also mentions significant improvements in the company's operational quality and a reduction in the risk of share pledges by the controlling shareholder [17][21] Home Appliances - The report emphasizes the importance of leading white goods companies like Midea Group and Haier Smart Home, which are expected to benefit from a recovery in the real estate market [22] - The report suggests that the current valuations of these companies are attractive, and they are well-positioned to improve their performance as market conditions stabilize [22] Home Furnishing - The report recommends Gujia Home, highlighting its strong performance and growth potential due to its retail transformation and global expansion [27][28] - Other recommended companies in the home furnishing sector include Sophia, Oppein Home, and Bull Group, with a focus on their potential for growth in market share [28]