行 业 及 产 业 社会服务 2026 年 02 月 25 日 分段式出游特征显著，长假带动旅 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 证 券 研 究 报 告 《确定性提升，服务消费迎供给升级—— 社会服务 2025 年业绩前瞻》 2026/02/08 《酒店价格回正，REITs 助力文旅资产盘活 提速——社会服务行业专题报告十一》 2025/12/14 证券分析师 赵令伊 A0230518100003 zhaoly2@swsresearch.com 杨光 A0230524100004 yangguang@swsresearch.com 联系人 杨光 A0230524100004 yangguang@swsresearch.com 本期投资提示： 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 游消费再创新高 | 目录 | | | --- | --- | | 1. 交通出行：跨区域流动高位运行，节后出游返程带动走强 | | | | 4 | | 2.国内游：从"返乡探亲"演变为"旅游过年" | 6 | | 3.住宿消费：量价齐升，价格涨价为主 | 6 | | 4.海南免税 ...

本文来自格隆汇专栏：中信证券研究，作者：姜娅、刘济玮、蒋祎、杜一帆 马年春节消费延续分化表现，整体符合预期，其中酒店、景区、高端酒等呈现较优景气度，受出行分流 的部分影响，零售、票房等表现总体一般。我们维持观点，消费自身修复行进之中、企稳中有分化，短 期消费的整体beta性机会关注财政刺激类政策的可能性。建议2026年重点关注权益市场的财富效应传 导、供给端优化推动的率先经营拐点机会，长期配置继续重视结构变化。 ▍出行：旅游市场高景气，酒店板块超预期。 2026年马年春节假期9天连休，且存"请5休15"拼假可行性，为"史上最长春节"，催生"先返乡、后出 游"或多地游多段式旅行。此外，此次春节假期期间大部地区气温较往年偏高，气象条件总体适宜出 行。根据交通运输部，春运前20天全社会跨区域累计人员流动量同比增长5.2%，其中民航、铁路、公 路分别同比增长5.4%、4.9%、5.4%，好于预期。根据酒店之家，基于上年农历同期口径，春节9天假期 中前8天平均Occ为51.4%/同比+3.3ppts，平均ADR为293.1元/同比+10.1%，平均RevPAR为150.1元/同比 +17.6%，显著优于节前我们的预期（ ...

1）量端，国内游方面，根据交通运输部统计，2026除夕-正月初六全社会跨区域人员流动量同比增长 9.6%，其中铁路、民航客流各增长11.3%、7.7%。其中史上最长春节带动返乡+旅游，与中长途旅行相 关的民航、铁路显著改善；而邮轮等水上旅游产品回暖及海南封关带动琼州海峡客运量等推动水路客运 量同比增长29.8%；出入境游方面，据国家移民管理局，2026年春节假期日均出入境197.7万人次，较去 年春节假期日均增长10.1%。2）价端，根据DAST统计，春运前21天累计机票票价同比增长3.6%，预计 假期票价增速高于节前（2.22票价同比增长6.3%）。 子行业：酒店提价逻辑验证，海南免税双位数增长，祈福景区表现突出，本地零售餐饮环比提速 国信证券发布研报称，2026年提振内需成为经济发展重中之重，其中我国居民服务消费对比海外具备较 大提升潜力，有望成为国家在商品消费补贴进一步优化基础上的新抓手，金钱、时间、供给侧约束都为 政策提供良好着力点。板块资金配置处于历史低位且整体估值已反映诸多悲观预期，该行建议重视2026 年服务消费元年，伴随政策逐步向居民收入预期等传导，全年维度布局通胀预期修复与细分景气两条主 线 ...

Investment Rating - The report rates the cultural tourism infrastructure and operations industry as stable for 2025 and 2026, indicating a positive outlook for growth and development in the sector [1]. Core Insights - Since 2025, the domestic tourism market has transitioned from recovery to a healthy development phase, with high consumer willingness to travel, primarily focusing on local and nearby tourism, leading to increasingly rigid consumption demands [1][15]. - The international tourism market is entering a high-quality growth phase driven by policy releases and payment facilitation, with expectations for inbound tourism to become a new growth point for the industry [5][18]. - The industry is experiencing a transformation towards quality and immersive experiences, particularly in traditional scenic areas, which are facing capacity constraints and intensified competition [1][42]. - The hotel industry is undergoing a deep adjustment phase, with ongoing brand and chain development, but still facing pressure from soft growth in room prices and rising operational costs [1][2]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The cultural tourism infrastructure and operations industry aims to meet public cultural and tourism demands, encompassing the development and provision of related material facilities and services [7]. - The industry is characterized by a deep integration of cultural and tourism resources, focusing on comprehensive services for tourists, including travel, accommodation, dining, and entertainment [7][8]. Market Dynamics - The report highlights that the tourism industry is a strategic pillar of the national economy, contributing over 10% to the national economic growth during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period [10]. - The domestic tourism market is expected to continue supporting economic and social development, with a projected increase in domestic travel demand due to favorable policies and extended holiday periods [5][15]. Financial Performance - Revenue growth in the industry has slowed since 2025, but the operational resilience is expected to persist due to policy support and fundamental supply-demand dynamics [2][4]. - The financial structure of the industry shows a high reliance on debt financing, with a notable increase in overall debt levels and a rising proportion of rigid debt [4][36]. Future Outlook - For 2026, the report anticipates that policy dividends and new holiday regulations will further stimulate tourism consumption demand, with a steady development trend expected in the industry [5][16]. - The integration of AI and data processing technologies is expected to enhance tourism services, leading to a more refined transformation in the sector [5][30]. Sub-industry Analysis - The leisure facilities and cultural tourism infrastructure sector is characterized by high capital barriers and varying profitability across sub-sectors, with leisure facilities maintaining strong profitability due to resource scarcity [9][36]. - The report notes that the competitive landscape is dominated by state-owned enterprises, particularly in economically developed eastern regions, which exhibit significant scale advantages [2][4].

摘要 春节期间高端酒店和旅游需求超预期，出行相关消费显著受益，酒店 RevPAR 大幅提升，如华住、锦江、首旅等头部酒店集团均实现显著增 长，价格贡献是主要驱动力。 餐饮行业持续升温，全国重点零售和餐饮企业日均销售额同比增长 8.6%，火锅龙头企业翻台率和接待量均有所增加，预定量显著提升，表 明外出就餐比例增加带动餐饮业增长。 免税板块总体符合预期，但海南地区三亚增速优于海口，表明区域市场 存在差异。政府消费券有效拉动海南离岛免税增长，预计全年海南离岛 免税销售增速将维持在 20%左右。 珠宝零售市场分化，高端奢侈品珠宝消费较好，但金价高位对投资金需 求未直接拉动，首饰消费需求集中释放。部分品牌如潮宏基、周大福等 在高金价背景下表现强劲。 医美领域客流双位数增长，但单价有所下降。重组胶原蛋白类产品增速 亮眼，童颜水光类产品通过走量模式销售。预计 2026 年医美行业将比 2025 年更乐观，新技术与新成分加快获批。 春节消费观察总结 20260223 Q&A 今年春节期间消费市场的整体表现如何？有哪些主要趋势？ 今年春节期间，消费市场表现出三大主要趋势。首先，高端消费复苏明显，且 呈现 K 型分化。例如，大众 ...

Group 1: Macroeconomic Insights - In 2023, the market discussed a peak of 16 trillion yuan in "excess savings," with approximately 76-77 trillion yuan of residential time deposits maturing in 2026, indicating a historical peak[5] - The maturing deposits in the first quarter of 2026 are expected to reach 32-34 trillion yuan, highlighting a significant seasonal pattern[6] - The actual pressure from maturing deposits is limited, with a year-on-year increase of 9.6-10.8 trillion yuan in 2026, corresponding to a growth rate of 14.4%-16.3%, which is lower than the 17.7% growth rate in 2025[6] Group 2: Interest Rate and Asset Allocation - Approximately 25 trillion yuan of high-interest deposits are set to mature, with 32% of the total maturing deposits being two years or older, indicating a core pressure for renewal[6] - The renewal rate for deposits in 2025 remained close to 90%, suggesting that low interest rates do not automatically trigger a shift in risk appetite among residents[7] - The anticipated migration of deposits to other assets is expected to occur slowly and in a dispersed manner, with a potential 10% outflow rate from the 77 trillion yuan in time deposits being a marginal pricing variable for equity and bond markets[7] Group 3: Trade and Tariff Impacts - As of November 2025, the effective tariff rate in the U.S. reached 9.8%, the highest since 1946, with China facing the highest actual tariff rate of 30.9%[9] - The actual tariff increases have significantly impacted trade dynamics, with China and India experiencing the largest increases in effective tariffs compared to 2024, at 20.2 and 17.3 percentage points respectively[10] - Despite tariff pressures, China's export position remains robust, maintaining the largest share of global exports, while the U.S. has shifted its import structure towards North America and Europe[11] Group 4: Economic Recovery and Consumer Behavior - The Chinese economy is shifting focus towards domestic demand as a long-term strategy, with consumer spending projected to account for 56.6% of GDP by 2024, still below developed economies[39] - Consumer confidence is stabilizing, with improvements in disposable income growth and a reduction in the crowding-out effect of precautionary savings on consumption[40] - The recovery in domestic demand is supported by a reasonable rise in prices, which is expected to stimulate consumption and improve corporate profitability[40]

| 国泰海通证券 | | --- | | GUOTAI HAITONG SECURITIES | 目 录 | | 每日报告精选（2026-02-13 09:00——2026-02-24 15:00） 3 | | | --- | --- | --- | |  | 宏观专题：《有多少存款：可供"搬家"》2026-02-22 3 | | |  | 宏观专题：《关税一周年：全球贸易重塑的"真相"》2026-02-22 3 | | |  | 宏观周报：《春节期间：海外有何变化》2026-02-22 4 | | |  | 宏观周报：《新春经济温和修复》2026-02-22 5 | | |  | 宏观快报点评：《特朗普关税被否：后续如何演绎》2026-02-21 5 | | |  | 宏观快报点评：《"K 型分化"的边际收敛》2026-02-21 6 | | |  | 宏观快报点评：《超级核心通胀压力仍存》2026-02-14 7 | | |  | 宏观快报点评：《M2 增速：创新高的背后》2026-02-14 8 | | |  | 策略专题报告：《中国股市上升的关键动力三：中国内需提振的"有力转折"》2 ...

2026春节假期社服零售数据一览(持续更新中) # 免税： 销售额：春假前五日，海南离岛免税购物金额达13.8亿元，免税购物人数17.7万人次，比去年春节假期前五天分别 增长19%和24.6%。 海南客流：26年春节（15-23日）海口美兰、三亚凤凰、琼海博鳌等岛内三大机场预计旅客吞吐量预计达到191.5万 人次，与去年相比增长5.4%。 口岸客流：假期前五天，珠海边检 2026春节假期社服零售数据一览(持续更新中) # 免税： 销售额：春假前五日，海南离岛免税购物金额达13.8亿元，免税购物人数17.7万人次，比去年春节假期前五天分别 增长19%和24.6%。 海南客流：26年春节（15-23日）海口美兰、三亚凤凰、琼海博鳌等岛内三大机场预计旅客吞吐量预计达到191.5万 人次，与去年相比增长5.4%。 口岸客流：假期前五天，珠海边检总站查验经拱北、港珠澳大桥、横琴、青茂等口岸出入境客流量285万人次，同 比增长约4%。 # 景区： 长白山：春节假期前四天（2月15-18日），累计游客3.9万人次，同比增长 77.5%。 预计整体假期增长超20%。 宋城演艺：千古情9天演出576场，日均场次相比25年下降5 ...

【长白山】春节假期9天同比去年8天假期，客流同比增长17%（今年初六关闭一天） 【黄山旅游】黄山南门收 马年春节景区出行超预期，高基数下再创新高【申万零售社服】 部分景区春节数据更新（持续更新ing) 【三峡旅游】（今年九天对比去年八天）游船类接待量同比增56% 【丽江股份】年三十到初六客流增长突破20% 【九华旅游】初一至初六，九华山接待客流31万人次，相较25年春节初一至初六增长24.5% 【岭南控股】出境长线游人数同比增长38%，土耳其成为春节出境游市场的"黑马"——收客人数同比增长152% 观点 马年春节景区出行超预期，高基数下再创新高【申万零售社服】 部分景区春节数据更新（持续更新ing) 【三峡旅游】（今年九天对比去年八天）游船类接待量同比增56% 【丽江股份】年三十到初六客流增长突破20% 【九华旅游】初一至初六，九华山接待客流31万人次，相较25年春节初一至初六增长24.5% 【长白山】春节假期9天同比去年8天假期，客流同比增长17%（今年初六关闭一天） 【黄山旅游】黄山南门收费站车流量日均增长20%，单日高峰增长30% 【祥源文旅】春节假期前四天，祥源文旅累计接待游客量26.45万人，同比增 ...

国泰海通晨报 2026 年 02 月 24 日 国泰海通证券股份有限公司 研究所 [Table_Summary] 1、【宏观研究】：春节期间，特朗普关税被判定违法，以及美伊军事冲突风险升温对全球资产价 格带来扰动，原油与黄金均有所上涨。美国经济韧性仍存，通胀回落进展或将较为颠簸，部分联 储官员提及加息可能。未来仍需关注特朗普关税政策的不确定性扰动。 2、【策略研究】：中国经济工作的重心正转向内需主导，并作为首要任务，内需复苏、物价回升 与地产企稳会推动经济预期上修。目前内需板块预期与交易出清，相信价值也会有春天。 3、【固定收益研究】：经济复苏节奏延续温和，呵护债市偏多环境，但需关注海外风险偏好回升 带来的扰动。 4、【纺织服装研究】纺织服装业：我们认为①截至 2.12 日的美棉周度出口放量、②2.19 日发布的 美国农业展望论坛明确新棉季全球供需收紧基调、③近期美国与东南亚国家关税互惠政策等多重 积极边际变化夯实美棉筑底并逐步打开中长期向上空间的趋势，持续重点推荐百隆东方、关注相 关标的天虹国际集团。 [汤蔚翔 Table_Authors] (分析师) 电话：021-38676172 邮箱：tangweix ...