1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The shipping industry is currently facing significant cargo - collection pressure. The freight rate center has declined, and the 10 - month contract is mainly short - allocated while the 12 - month contract has the potential for long - allocation after the freight rate bottom becomes clear [4][5]. - The EC2510 contract is relatively safe to short at high prices, but extreme short - chasing is not advisable. For the 12 - month contract, attention should be paid to the bottom of this round of freight rate decline, and long - allocation can be gradually carried out as the freight rate bottom becomes clear [4][5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Analysis - Online quotes: Different shipping companies have different price quotes for the Shanghai - Rotterdam route. For example, Maersk's 36 - week price is 1315/2210, and the 37 - week price is 1140/1900 (currently up to 1170/1960). HPL - SPOT's price for the second half of September is 1135/1835 [1]. - Geopolitical situation: The Yemeni Houthi rebels stated that they would retaliate for the death of several important members in an Israeli air strike, which may affect shipping in the region [2]. 3.2 Capacity Analysis - China - European basic port capacity: The average weekly capacity in September is 294,700 TEU, and in October is 276,600 TEU. There are 3 blank sailings in September and 10 TBNs and 3 blank sailings in October. HPL has announced two additional vessels for October [3]. 3.3 Contract Analysis - 10 - month contract: It is a quarterly contract, mainly short - allocated. The current freight rate center has dropped to around $2000/FEU, and the 10 - month contract is equivalent to a spot price of around $1900/FEU. Attention should be paid to the price at which shipping companies try to stabilize the price [4]. - 12 - month contract: In normal years, the price in December is generally more than 10% higher than that in October. The risk lies in the bottom of this round of freight rate decline. If vessels on the US route are transferred to the European route in the fourth quarter, it may put pressure on European route prices [5]. 3.4 Futures and Spot Market - Futures market: As of September 1, 2025, the total open interest of all container shipping index European route futures contracts is 81,845.00 lots, and the single - day trading volume is 43,901.00 lots. Different contracts have different closing prices [6]. - Spot market: On September 1, 2025, the SCFIS (Shanghai - Europe) is 1773.60 points, and the SCFIS (Shanghai - US West) is 1013.90 points [6].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On September 1st, the shipping market was affected by news that the US Court of Appeals ruled Trump's tariff increase illegal, and there was concentrated short - position reduction after the opening. The freight rate index SCFIS closed at 1773.6 points, a month - on - month decrease of 10.9%, indicating an accelerated decline in freight rates at the end of August [8]. - The overall market loading rate remains above the warning line, and shipping companies' profit margins are still considerable at the current FAK level, so they have no intention to increase the number of blank sailings. The freight rate center in the second week of September has dropped to around $2000 - 2100/FEU, and there may be a further reduction of $300 - 400/FEU in late September. The freight rate trend in October depends on the blank - sailing intensity [10]. - Subjectively, it is believed that the probability of the freight rate in October falling below the low of $1700/FEU in May is high, and the valuation of the 2510 contract may be below 1247.05 points. If the loading rate further declines and the FAK freight rate approaches the shipping companies' cash - flow cost line of $1300 - 1600/FEU, some shipping companies may increase the suspension of sailings, and the further downward space for freight rates may be limited [10]. - In terms of strategies, pay attention to the long - spread opportunities between the 12 - 04 and 02 - 04 contracts, and consider lightly going long on the 2512 contract around 1500 points [11]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Performance of Container Shipping Index (European Routes) - The container shipping index (European routes) showed strong performance yesterday. The main 2510 contract closed at 1291.4 points, up 1.53%, with a reduction of 989 lots; the second - main 2512 contract closed at 1650.9 points, up 5.01%, with a reduction of 828 lots [8]. 2. Freight Rate Index - The SCFIS index closed at 1773.6 points, a month - on - month decrease of 10.9%, lower than expected, indicating an accelerated decline in freight rates at the end of August [8]. - The SCFIS for the US - West route was 1013.90 points, a decrease of 2.6%; the SCFI for the European route was $1481/TEU, a decrease of 11.2%; the SCFI for the US - West route was $1923/FEU, an increase of 17.0% [1]. 3. European Basic Port Freight Rates - In the second week of September, the freight rates for European basic ports remained in the range of $1900 - 2200/FEU, with an average FAK of about $2080/FEU, and the freight rate center for container volume/SPOT decreased by $100/FEU [9]. 4. Supply - Demand Fundamentals - In September, the number of blank sailings remained unchanged at 6, and there were no pending voyages. The average weekly capacity reached 298,000 TEU/week, a 6% decrease from August, significantly lower than the 14% decrease during the same period in 2024. In October, the number of pending voyages remained at 5, and there were 6 blank sailings. Without considering pending voyages, the average weekly capacity was 287,000 TEU/week [9]. - The overall market loading rate in late August was around 95%. Shipping companies generally relaxed restrictions on low - price contract bookings and special offers for large - volume shipments, which intensified price competition, and the imbalance between supply and demand in the market will continue until the end of September [9]. 5. Historical Market Review - In 2024, the weighted index of European routes stopped falling on September 10th. There was a short - term speculation on the US - West port strike in late September. After the strike was resolved during the National Day holiday, the market gave back the "strike" premium on the first trading day after the holiday. Shipping companies successively announced price increases in November and December, with the peak freight rate occurring in the first week of December [11].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core View of the Report - The container shipping index (European Line) showed weak performance, with the main 2510 contract closing at 1285.0 points, a decline of 3.31%, and an increase of 523 lots in positions; the second - main 2512 contract closed at 1571.0 points, a decline of 3.85%, and an increase of 1880 lots in positions [8]. - In the short - term, the futures price is oscillating downward due to the expected decline in spot prices. In the medium - term, if the loading rate further drops and FAK freight approaches the shipping companies' cash - flow cost line of 1300 - 1600 dollars/FEU, some shipping companies may increase the suspension of voyages, and the further downward space of freight may be limited [11]. - The strategy is to stop profit on short positions of 2510 at low prices, and pay attention to the opportunity of 12 - 04 positive spread entry in the next 1 - 2 weeks [13]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking 3.1.1 Futures Data | Contract | Yesterday's Closing Price | Daily Change | Yesterday's Trading Volume | Yesterday's Open Interest | Change in Open Interest | Yesterday's Trading Volume/Open Interest | Previous Day's Trading Volume/Open Interest | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | EC2510 | 1285.0 | - 3.31% | 25330 | 54248 | 523 | 0.47 | 0.34 | | EC2512 | 1571.0 | - 3.85% | 8009 | 16197 | 1880 | 0.49 | 0.38 | | EC2602 | 1400.0 | - 3.79% | 1273 | 4668 | 110 | 0.27 | 0.17 | | EC2510 - EC2512 | - 286.0 | | | | | | | | EC2512 - EC2604 | | | | 355.0 | | | | [1] 3.1.2 Freight Rate Index - SCFIS: The European route was at 1990.20 points, a weekly decline of 8.7%; the US - West route was at 1041.38 points, a weekly decline of 5.9% [1]. - SCFI: The European route was at 1668 dollars/TEU, a bi - weekly decline of 8.4%; the US - West route was at 1644 dollars/FEU, a bi - weekly decline of 6.5% [1]. 3.1.3 Spot European Line Prices - Maersk: Departing from Shanghai on September 11, 2025, arriving in Rotterdam on October 20, 2025, with a voyage of 38 days, the price was 1930 dollars/40'GP and 1155 dollars/20'GP [1]. - MSC: Departing from Shanghai on September 14, 2025, arriving in Rotterdam on October 31, 2025, with a voyage of 47 days, the price was 2352 dollars/40'GP and 1406 dollars/20'GP [1]. - Other shipping companies also have corresponding price and schedule information [1]. 3.1.4 Exchange Rate - The US dollar index was 97.88, and the US dollar against the offshore RMB was 7.15 [1]. 3.2 Supply - Side Situation - In September, there were no undetermined voyages, and the number of empty voyages was 6. The PA Alliance transferred 2 ships from the US line to the European line. The weekly average capacity in September reached 298,000 TEU/week, a decline of about 5% compared with August, still significantly lower than the capacity decline in the same period in 2024 [10]. - In October, the number of undetermined voyages was 4, and the number of empty voyages was 5. Without considering undetermined voyages, the weekly average capacity was 296,000 TEU/week [10]. 3.3 Demand - Side and Market Situation - In late August, the overall market loading rate was close to 95%. Since the loading rate was still above the warning line and shipping companies' profit levels were still considerable, shipping companies had no action to increase the number of empty voyages [11]. - In September, the freight rate was in a downward trend. Considering the capacity distribution, the downward pressure on freight rates was still large due to the increase in capacity in the second half of the month and shipping companies' need to stock up for the National Day holiday [11]. 3.4 Historical Market Review - In 2024, the weighted index of the European line stopped falling on September 10. There was a short - term speculation on the US - West port strike in late September. After the strike was resolved during the National Day, the premium was given back. Then, shipping companies announced price increases, with Maersk announcing a price increase to 4500 dollars/FEU effective from November 4, and the actual price in early November was around 4000 dollars/FEU [12]. - In years when the Spring Festival was late, the December contract still had a certain premium over the October contract, but the February contract was not necessarily a weak contract [12].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The futures prices of the container shipping index (European routes) are expected to remain weak and volatile in the short term, with a relatively high possibility of a continued oscillating and declining trend, but be aware of the risk of a low - level rebound in some contracts [1]. - The continued reduction of the spot cabin quotes for European routes in early September by MSC and CMA CGM is negative for the futures price trend, and geopolitical risks may also decline [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs EC Risk Management Strategy Recommendation - For position management, if one has already obtained positions but the shipping capacity is full or the booked cargo volume is poor, and there are concerns about falling freight rates, one can short the container shipping index futures (EC2510) at 1350 - 1450 to lock in profits [1]. - For cost management, if the shipping companies increase the frequency of blank sailings or the peak season is approaching, and one hopes to book cabins according to the order situation, one can buy the container shipping index futures (EC2510) at 1150 - 1250 to determine the booking cost in advance [1]. Market Data EC Contract Data - As of August 29, 2025, the closing prices of EC contracts all declined. For example, EC2510 closed at 1285.0, down 2.36% daily and 3.02% weekly [4]. - In terms of the long - short positions of the EC2510 contract, the long positions increased by 643 to 28949, the short positions decreased by 1003 to 30997, and the trading volume increased by 8352 to 28093 (bilateral) [1]. Spot Cabin Quotes - On September 11, Maersk's 20GP and 40GP total quotes from Shanghai to Rotterdam remained the same as the previous period. In early September, MSC's 20GP and 40GP total quotes decreased by $50 compared to the previous period, and CMA CGM's 20GP and 40GP total quotes decreased by $100 and $200 respectively [6]. Global Freight Rate Index - Most global freight rate indices declined, such as the SCFIS European route index, which dropped 189.97 points to 1990.2, a decrease of 8.71% [6]. Port Waiting Time - On August 28, 2025, the waiting times of some ports changed compared to the previous day. For example, the waiting time at Hong Kong Port increased by 0.071 days to 0.542 days, while that at Shanghai Port decreased by 0.035 days to 1.646 days [13]. Ship Speed and Waiting Ship Quantity - On August 28, 2025, the speeds of some container ships increased slightly, such as the 8000 + container ship with a speed of 15.911 knots, up 0.092 knots from the previous day. The number of container ships waiting at the Suez Canal port anchor decreased by 1 to 0 [21]. News and Events - The Chinese Ministry of Commerce's delegation visited Canada and will go to the US. China is willing to work with the US to maintain the healthy and stable development of Sino - US economic and trade relations [2]. - US President Trump held a meeting to break the negotiation deadlock between Israel and Hamas and formulate a post - Gaza war plan [3].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The freight rate center continues to decline, with the 10 - month contract mainly for short - allocation as the freight rate center moves down further. The 12 - month contract still follows the off - peak and peak season pattern, but the risk lies in the bottom of this round of freight rate decline. The main contract shows a weak and volatile trend, and it is advisable to short the 10 - month contract on rallies [5][7][9] Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Market Analysis - **Online Quotes**: Different shipping companies have different price quotes for routes such as Shanghai - Rotterdam. For example, Maersk's Shanghai - Rotterdam price in week 36 was 1315/2210, and in week 37 it was 1140/1900 (currently up to 1155/1930). Many other shipping companies also have their respective price quotes for September [1][2][3] - **Geopolitical Situation**: Israel's Prime Minister Netanyahu expressed regret over the incident at the Nasser Hospital in Gaza, and Trump said dealing with Netanyahu was tricky and expected a good and clear outcome in the next 2 - 3 weeks [3] - **Capacity**: The monthly average weekly capacity from China to European base ports in September was 313,900 TEU, and in October it was 282,100 TEU. There were three blank sailings in September, and HPL announced two additional vessels for October [4] - **Contract Settlement Prices**: The final settlement price of the August contract was 2135.28 points. The 10 - month contract is a quarterly contract, mainly for short - allocation, and the settlement price is the arithmetic average of SCFIS on October 13th, 20th, and 27th. Normally, the price in October is 20% - 30% lower than that in August [4][5] 2. Futures Prices - As of August 26, 2025, the total open interest of all container shipping index European line futures contracts was 79,902 lots, and the single - day trading volume was 25,424 lots. The closing prices of different contracts such as EC2602, EC2604, etc. are provided [8] 3. Spot Prices - On August 15, 2025, the SCFI prices for Shanghai - Europe, Shanghai - US West, and Shanghai - US East routes were 1668.00 dollars/TEU, 1644.00 dollars/FEU, and 2613.00 dollars/FEU respectively. On August 18, the SCFIS for Shanghai - Europe was 1990.20 points, and for Shanghai - US West was 1041.38 points [8] 4. Container Ship Capacity Supply - 2025 is a big year for container ship deliveries. As of August 22, 2025, 177 container ships with a total capacity of 1.432 million TEU have been delivered. Among them, 57 ships in the 12,000 - 16,999 TEU range with a total capacity of 859,000 TEU, and 8 ships above 17,000 TEU with a total capacity of 176,880 TEU have been delivered [9] 5. Strategy - **Unilateral**: The main contract shows a weak and volatile trend - **Arbitrage**: Short the 10 - month contract on rallies [9]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The price of Maersk's quotes continued to decline in the second week of September, and attention should be paid to whether other shipping companies will follow suit [1] - The freight rate of the October contract is mainly short - allocated, and the freight rate center continues to decline. The freight rate in October is usually 20% - 30% lower than that in August. Attention should be paid to the price - following situation of other shipping companies after Maersk's freight rate drops to $1900/FEU [5] - The seasonality of the December contract still exists, but the risk lies in the bottom of this round of freight rate decline. If ships from the US line are transferred to the European line in the fourth quarter, it may put pressure on European line prices [6][7] - The main contract is expected to fluctuate weakly. For arbitrage, it is advisable to go short on the October contract [9] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Futures Prices - As of August 26, 2025, the total open interest of all container shipping index European line futures contracts was 79,739 lots, and the daily trading volume was 34,224 lots. The closing prices of EC2604, EC2606, EC2508, EC2510, EC2512, and EC2602 contracts were $1273.10, $1416.60, $1627.90, $1318.90, $1643.90, and $1469.30 respectively [8] 3.2 Spot Prices - On August 15, 2025, the SCFI (Shanghai - Europe) was $1668/TEU, SCFI (Shanghai - US West) was $1644/FEU, and SCFI (Shanghai - US East) was $2613/FEU. On August 18, the SCFIS (Shanghai - Europe) was 1990.20 points, and SCFIS (Shanghai - US West) was 1041.38 points. The final settlement price of the August contract was 2135.28 points [4][8] 3.3 Container Ship Capacity Supply - In August 2025, the remaining one - week capacity from China to European base ports was 308,400 TEU. The weekly average capacity in September was 310,600 TEU, and that in October was 282,300 TEU. The capacity in September will increase, and the blank sailings of the PA alliance in September have been filled. HPL has announced two additional ships for October [4] - As of August 22, 2025, 177 container ships with a total capacity of 1.432 million TEU have been delivered in 2025. Among them, 57 ships with a capacity of 12,000 - 16,999 TEU (total 859,000 TEU) and 8 ships with a capacity of over 17,000 TEU (total 176,880 TEU) have been delivered [9] 3.4 Supply Chain - Not provided in the given content 3.5 Demand and European Economy - Not provided in the given content

The Panama Canal Authority plans to sell rights to two, yet-to-be-built ports to bring in more competition ahead of a deal to sell other ports to BlackRock and shipping giant MSC https://t.co/943jVVLs2m ...

北京时间5月14日，美国白宫宣布对华关税政策重大调整：立即撤销91%商品的加征关税，暂停24%关 税90天，仅保留10%的基准税率。与此同时，小额包裹关税从120%骤降至54%，跨境电商卖家们直 呼"久旱逢甘霖"。消息一出，外贸圈、跨境圈一片沸腾，大批卖家紧急启动备货计划，物流公司订单量 暴增300%。 马士基CTO文森特更是明确表示，尽管公司削减了部分中国至美国航线运力，但若客户有需求，可迅速 恢复运力。面对海运费的持续暴涨，许多卖家虽心有不甘，但也无奈地表示，即便涨价也要发货，谁也 不知道三个月后市场会怎样，而且亚马逊的prime day也即将来临。关税的下调，仿佛为卖家们打开了 一扇新的大门，但激烈的竞争也才刚刚拉开帷幕。 然而，在一片繁荣的发货热潮之下，新的情况也逐渐浮出水面。全球主要船公司接连发布涨价通知，运 价呈现出持续攀升的态势： 美森宣布自5月22日起，对从中国上海、宁波及厦门发往美国的大柜加价，涨幅达1500美元/40尺柜； MSC计划从6月1日开始推出旺季附加费PSS，分别为1600美元、2000美元、2000美元； ONE同样不甘示弱，通知客户美线FAK40 尺大柜运费上涨1000美元， ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The main contract is expected to fluctuate weakly. It is advisable to short the October contract when the price is high. The October contract is mainly for short - allocation as it is a off - season contract, and the freight rate center continues to decline. The risk for the December contract lies in the bottom of the current freight rate decline. [6][7][9] - The supply of container ship capacity is affected by factors such as ship delivery and empty - sail filling. The freight rate is influenced by supply and demand, economic conditions, and shipping company strategies. [4][6][7] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Prices - As of August 25, 2025, the total open interest of all contracts of the container shipping index European route futures was 80,906.00 lots, and the single - day trading volume was 49,119.00 lots. The closing prices of EC2602, EC2604, EC2606, EC2508, EC2510, and EC2512 contracts were 1496.90, 1284.00, 1445.70, 2136.00, 1358.00, and 1696.70 respectively. [8] 3.2 Spot Prices - Online quotes from different alliances and shipping companies vary. For example, in the Gemini Cooperation, Maersk's Shanghai - Rotterdam price in week 36 was 1315/2210; HPL's quotes for the first half and second half of September were 1435/2235. In the Ocean Alliance, CMA's Shanghai - Rotterdam quotes for the second half of August and September were 1510/2620 and 1410/2420 respectively. [1][3] - The final delivery settlement price of the August contract was 2135.28 points. The 10 - month contract is a quarterly contract, mainly for short - allocation, and the freight rate center continues to decline. Normally, the price in October is 20% - 30% lower than that in August. [5][6] 3.3 Container Ship Capacity Supply - In August, the remaining one - week capacity from China to European base ports was 308,400 TEU, and the capacity in week 35 was 30.84 TEU. The average weekly capacity in September was 310,600 TEU, and the capacities in weeks 36/37/38/39 were 326,500/276,000/314,500/325,500 TEU respectively. The average weekly capacity in October was 282,300 TEU. [4] - In September, the two empty sailings of the PA alliance were filled. In week 38, the FE4 route was filled by HMM AQUAMARINE (13,788 TEU), and in week 37, the FE3 route was filled by HMM ALGECIRAS (23,964 TEU). HPL announced information about two additional ships in October. [4] - As of August 22, 2025, 177 container ships with a total capacity of 1.432 million TEU had been delivered in 2025. Among them, 57 ships with a capacity of 12,000 - 16,999 TEU were delivered, with a total of 859,000 TEU, and 8 ships with a capacity of over 17,000 TEU were delivered, with a total of 176,880 TEU. [9] 3.4 Supply Chain No specific analysis content provided, only figure references. 3.5 Demand and European Economy - The US NRF estimates that the demand for container imports in the US from September to December 2025 will decline by about 20% compared with the same period in 2024. In the fourth quarter, Western holidays are concentrated, and shipping companies usually adjust supply to keep freight rates at a high level. However, if ships from the US route are transferred to the European route, it may put pressure on European route prices. [7]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the report's industry investment rating is provided in the given content. Core Viewpoints - The top of the August contract's freight rate has emerged, and the continuous downward revision of the freight rate brings uncertainty to the estimated delivery settlement price, with the final estimated settlement price around 2100 points [4]. - The October contract should be mainly short - allocated during the off - season, and the focus is on the downward slope of the freight rate. Under normal circumstances, the price in October is 20% - 30% lower than that in August. In the context of a large discount, it is relatively safe to short - allocate the EC2510 contract on rallies, but excessive short - chasing should be avoided [4][5]. - The seasonal pattern of peak and off - seasons still exists for the December contract, and the risk lies in whether the Suez Canal will reopen. In regular years, the price in December is generally more than 10% higher than that in October [6]. - For strategies, the main contract is expected to fluctuate weakly on a single - side basis, and it is advisable to short the October contract on rallies for arbitrage [8]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Analysis - **Online Quotations**: Different shipping companies have different price quotations for different routes and time periods. For example, Gemini Cooperation's Maersk Shanghai - Rotterdam price in week 36 is 1290/2160; HPL's various time - period quotations are relatively stable at 1535/2435. Many other shipping companies' prices are also provided, and the prices of some shipping companies are showing a downward trend [1]. - **Geopolitical Situation**: Hamas condemned Israel's military action "Gideon Chariot 2", stating that Israel is continuing the 22 - month - long genocide war and ignoring the efforts of mediators to promote a cease - fire and the exchange of detainees [2]. - **Shipping Capacity**: The average weekly shipping capacity from China to European base ports in the remaining two weeks of August is 283,100 TEU, with 262,300/304,000 TEU in weeks 34/35 respectively. The average weekly shipping capacity in September is 315,800 TEU, and in October it is 281,300 TEU. There are also information about overtime ships and empty sailings [3]. 2. Futures Contracts Analysis - **August Contract**: The freight rate has reached its peak and is continuously declining. The final estimated delivery settlement price is around 2100 points [4]. - **October Contract**: It is an off - season contract, mainly short - allocated. The normal price in October is 20% - 30% lower than that in August. Currently, the freight rates of many shipping companies are falling, and HPL's two overtime ships in October may put pressure on the spot price. In the context of a large discount, it is relatively safe to short - allocate the EC2510 contract on rallies, but not to chase short excessively [4][5]. - **December Contract**: The seasonal pattern of peak and off - seasons still exists, and the risk is whether the Suez Canal will reopen. In regular years, the price in December is generally more than 10% higher than that in October [6]. 3. Shipping Company Price Trends - Many shipping companies' prices are showing a downward trend. For example, Maersk's week 36 price drops to 2100 US dollars/FEU, HPL's late - August freight rate drops to 2435 US dollars/FEU, and the prices of OA and PA alliances also follow the downward trend [5]. 4. Shipping Capacity and Market Trends - 2025 is a big year for container ship deliveries. As of August 15, 2025, 167 container ships have been delivered, with a total capacity of 1.318 million TEU [8]. - The current shipping market is affected by multiple factors, including geopolitical situations, shipping capacity adjustments, and the off - peak and peak seasons, which jointly affect the freight rate trends [2][3][4][5][6].