Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the industry [8] Core Views - The report highlights a significant decline in China's cobalt intermediate imports in June, with a month-on-month decrease of 61.6%, indicating a potential supply vacuum in the second half of the year [2][4] - Lithium prices are expected to rebound in the short term due to recent positive signals, but long-term resource clearing signals remain unclear [4] - Strategic metals such as rare earths and tungsten are undergoing a value reassessment, with strong demand recovery anticipated in the medium to long term [4] Summary by Sections Cobalt and Nickel - China's cobalt intermediate imports in June were 18,991 tons, down 61.6% month-on-month, leading to a potential second wave of price increases as domestic inventory is digested [2][4] - Nickel prices are expected to stabilize as macroeconomic expectations improve, with a long-term upward price trend anticipated [4] Lithium - Recent events, including regulatory changes in lithium mining, indicate stricter domestic mining controls, contributing to short-term price increases for lithium products [4] - The report suggests that while short-term momentum is strong, the long-term supply-demand balance remains uncertain [4] Strategic Metals - The report emphasizes the strategic importance of rare earths and tungsten, with a notable price increase for rare earth concentrates reported at 19,100 yuan/ton, up 1.5% month-on-month [4] - The demand for rare earths is expected to recover due to traditional applications and the acceleration of humanoid robot deployment [4] Market Performance - The report notes that the metal materials and mining sector outperformed the Shanghai Composite Index, with a weekly increase of 1.70% [14] - The report recommends focusing on companies with cost advantages and volume growth potential in the strategic metals sector [4]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the non-ferrous metals industry is "Positive" (maintained) [5][10]. Core Viewpoints - The report highlights a "反内卷" (anti-involution) trend leading to a general increase in commodity prices, with specific catalysts such as policy expectations driving price movements in copper, aluminum, lithium, and cobalt [4][6][10]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Overview - Important macroeconomic information includes the U.S. June core CPI being below expectations at 2.9%, and retail sales showing a month-on-month increase of 0.6% [10]. - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) is set to release a growth stabilization plan for key industries including steel, non-ferrous metals, and petrochemicals [10]. 2. Industrial Metals 2.1 Copper - Copper prices are expected to rebound due to policy expectations, with LME copper prices increasing by 0.83% and SHFE copper prices slightly decreasing by 0.03% [6][25]. - Inventory levels have risen, with LME copper stocks increasing by 12.37% [22][25]. - Downstream demand is recovering, with copper rod operating rates at 74.2%, up by 7.2 percentage points [6]. 2.2 Aluminum - Aluminum prices are also expected to rise, with alumina prices increasing by 0.16% to 3165 CNY/ton [6][36]. - SHFE aluminum prices fell by 1.01% to 20500 CNY/ton, but are projected to recover due to strong policy support [6][36]. 2.3 Lead and Zinc - LME lead prices decreased by 1.38%, while SHFE lead prices fell by 1.70% [46]. - LME zinc prices increased by 1.24%, but SHFE zinc prices dropped by 0.45% [46]. 2.4 Tin and Nickel - LME tin prices fell by 0.73%, and SHFE tin prices decreased by 0.65% [60]. - LME nickel prices decreased by 0.33%, while SHFE nickel prices fell by 0.78% [60]. 3. Energy Metals 3.1 Lithium - Lithium prices are on the rise, with lithium carbonate increasing by 4.55% to 66650 CNY/ton, and lithium spodumene rising by 5.49% to 711 USD/ton [75]. - Supply issues are noted, with a slight increase in production but ongoing inventory accumulation [75]. 3.2 Cobalt - Cobalt prices are under pressure, with domestic cobalt prices down by 1.22% to 243000 CNY/ton [88]. - The Democratic Republic of Congo has extended its cobalt export ban by three months, which may lead to a price rebound in Q4 [88].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the aluminum industry [1]. Core Views - The aluminum prices are experiencing fluctuations during the off-season, and a growth stabilization plan is expected to be announced soon [6][11]. - Despite the off-season demand, the low inventory levels and reduced aluminum supply are expected to provide some support for aluminum prices [11]. - The long-term outlook for the aluminum industry remains positive due to limited supply growth and potential demand increases [11]. Summary by Sections 1. Prices - As of July 18, the LME three-month aluminum closing price was $2638.0 per ton, up $36.0 from the previous week, representing a 1.4% week-on-week increase and a 9.7% year-on-year increase [24]. - The Shanghai aluminum active contract closing price was 20510.0 CNY per ton, down 185.0 CNY from the previous week, a 0.9% decrease week-on-week, but up 3.9% year-on-year [24]. - The average price of A00 aluminum in Changjiang was 20760.0 CNY per ton, unchanged from the previous week, but up 5.4% year-on-year [24]. 2. Production - In June 2025, the electrolytic aluminum production was 360.9 million tons, a decrease of 12.0 million tons month-on-month and a decrease of 2.8 million tons year-on-year [53]. - The alumina production in June 2025 was 725.8 million tons, a decrease of 1.4 million tons month-on-month, but an increase of 26.9 million tons year-on-year [53]. 3. Inventory - As of July 17, the domestic mainstream consumption area had an electrolytic aluminum ingot inventory of 49.20 million tons, an increase of 2.6 million tons week-on-week [7]. - The aluminum rod inventory was 15.60 million tons, a decrease of 0.4 million tons week-on-week, mainly due to reduced production and downstream replenishment [7]. 4. Key Companies and Earnings Forecast - China Hongqiao (1378.HK) is rated "Buy" with an EPS forecast of 2.71 CNY for 2025E [5]. - Tianshan Aluminum (002532.SZ) is rated "Buy" with an EPS forecast of 1.12 CNY for 2025E [5]. - Shenhuo Co. (000933.SZ) is rated "Buy" with an EPS forecast of 2.62 CNY for 2025E [5]. - China Aluminum (601600.SH) is rated "Buy" with an EPS forecast of 0.91 CNY for 2025E [5]. - Yun Aluminum (000807.SZ) is rated "Buy" with an EPS forecast of 2.00 CNY for 2025E [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for several companies in the non-ferrous metals sector, including 山金国际, 赤峰黄金, 洛阳钼业, and 中国宏桥 [7][8]. Core Views - The report is optimistic about the upward trend in metal prices, driven by policies aimed at reducing competition and supporting economic resilience. It highlights the long-term bullish outlook for gold due to expectations of interest rate cuts and ongoing concerns about global monetary credit and public debt [1][38]. - For industrial metals, the report notes that copper prices are supported by macroeconomic resilience and inventory reductions, while aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate due to ongoing inventory adjustments and macroeconomic sentiment [2][3]. - In the energy metals segment, lithium prices have surged due to supply-side disruptions, and the report anticipates continued strong performance in this area [3]. Summary by Sections Precious Metals - The report emphasizes a sustained positive outlook for precious metals, particularly gold, supported by expectations of interest rate cuts and economic resilience. Recent U.S. retail sales data exceeded expectations, contributing to this outlook [1][38]. Industrial Metals - **Copper**: Prices are supported by macroeconomic resilience and a reduction in domestic inventories. As of the latest data, copper inventories have decreased to 143,300 tons, down 23,180 tons year-on-year [2]. - **Aluminum**: The report indicates that aluminum prices are expected to remain volatile, with ongoing adjustments in inventory levels and production capacity [2]. Energy Metals - **Lithium**: The report notes a significant increase in lithium prices, with carbonate prices rising by 8.5% to 70,000 yuan/ton. Supply disruptions have been a key driver of this price increase [3]. - **Silicon Metal**: The report highlights a slight improvement in supply-demand dynamics for silicon metal, with increased demand from downstream industries [3]. Key Companies to Watch - The report suggests monitoring companies such as 兴业银锡, 盛达资源, and 紫金矿业 for potential investment opportunities in the non-ferrous metals sector [1][2][3].

Core Viewpoint - The construction of the world's largest heavy-haul railway in Guinea's Simandou Mountains, led by Chinese enterprises, is set to unlock 16 billion tons of high-grade iron ore, marking a significant shift in Africa's resource management and economic independence from Western mining companies [1][3][5]. Group 1: Background and Historical Context - The Simandou Mountains contain 30% of the world's undeveloped iron ore reserves, with a high grade of 66%, making it a valuable resource that has remained untapped for over a century [3][5]. - Western mining giants, such as Rio Tinto and Vale, have historically exploited this region without developing the necessary infrastructure, leading to accusations of resource manipulation and economic oppression [5][12]. Group 2: The New Railway Project - The 670-kilometer railway project is designed to traverse 32 mountains and cross 103 rivers, with a capacity to transport 40,000 tons per train, equivalent to 1,000 heavy trucks [7][10]. - The total investment for the railway is $12 billion, financed by the Export-Import Bank of China, with a 25-year mining rights agreement allowing Chinese companies to purchase iron ore at market prices [10][14]. Group 3: Economic Implications - The Guinean government is projected to earn $2.4 billion annually from mining taxes based on current iron ore prices of $80 per ton, significantly boosting the local economy [10][14]. - The railway is expected to create 2 million jobs along its route and reduce transportation costs for agricultural products by 70%, enhancing regional economic integration [10][14]. Group 4: Geopolitical Impact - The project symbolizes a shift in power dynamics, as Africa seeks to reclaim control over its resources and reduce dependency on Western companies, which have historically exploited the continent [12][16]. - The completion of the railway is seen as a challenge to the existing global resource order, with implications for international trade and investment strategies [16].

Core Viewpoint - The AI Fund Wanjiaguoqi Power Mixed A (019336) reported a profit of 5.2523 million yuan for Q2 2025, with a net asset value growth rate of 5.8% during the period [3] Fund Performance - As of the end of Q2 2025, the fund's scale was 90.0894 million yuan [16] - The fund's unit net value was 1.02 yuan as of July 17 [3] - The fund's performance over different periods includes: - 3-month net value growth rate: 11.24%, ranking 21 out of 82 comparable funds [3] - 6-month net value growth rate: 10.01%, ranking 30 out of 82 comparable funds [3] - 1-year net value growth rate: 6.91%, ranking 49 out of 77 comparable funds [3] Investment Strategy - The fund manager indicated that the second wave of the current commodity bull market will be a core logic supporting the fund's investment strategy, focusing on sectors such as precious metals, industrial metals, crude oil, banking, oil transportation, and public utilities [3] - The fund will also actively look for opportunities in other cyclical and value sectors that are at the bottom of their reversal [3] Risk Metrics - The fund's Sharpe ratio since inception is 0.5009 [8] - The maximum drawdown since inception is 24.52%, with the largest quarterly drawdown occurring in Q2 2025 at 12.05% [11] Portfolio Composition - The fund maintains a high stock position, with an average stock position of 92.55% since inception, compared to the industry average of 84.97% [15] - The fund's top holdings as of Q2 2025 include companies such as Luoyang Molybdenum, Bank of Communications, Zhaojin Mining, China National Offshore Oil, and China Petroleum [19]

Core Insights - The China Securities Index Free Cash Flow Index (932365) has shown a positive performance, with a 0.72% increase as of July 18, 2025, and notable gains in constituent stocks such as Sumida (600710) up 5.28% and Luzhou Laojiao (000568) up 3.61% [1][4] Performance Summary - The Free Cash Flow ETF (159233) has increased by 0.98%, with a latest price of 1.03 yuan, and has accumulated a 0.59% increase over the past two weeks as of July 17, 2025 [1][3] - The ETF recorded a turnover rate of 6.88% during the trading session, with a total transaction volume of 13.52 million yuan, and an average daily transaction volume of 35.07 million yuan over the past year [3] Profitability and Drawdown - Since its inception, the Free Cash Flow ETF has maintained a monthly profit percentage of 100.00% and a monthly profit probability of 78.95% [3] - The maximum drawdown since inception is 2.14%, with a relative benchmark drawdown of 0.16%, and it has the fastest recovery time of 8 days among comparable funds [3] Fee Structure and Tracking Accuracy - The management fee for the Free Cash Flow ETF is 0.50%, and the custody fee is 0.10% [3] - The tracking error over the past month is 0.176%, indicating a high level of tracking accuracy [3] Valuation Metrics - The latest price-to-earnings ratio (PE-TTM) for the Free Cash Flow Index is 10.46, which is in the 13.38th percentile over the past year, suggesting it is undervalued compared to 86.62% of the time in the last year [3] Top Holdings - As of June 30, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the Free Cash Flow Index account for 57.48% of the index, including China National Offshore Oil Corporation (600938) and China Merchants Energy (601919) [4][6]

Group 1 - The Guozheng Free Cash Flow Index increased by 0.36%, with leading stocks including Weichai Heavy Industry, Sumec, COSCO Shipping Specialized, Baiyin Nonferrous, and Yaxing Integration [1] - The Free Cash Flow ETF (159201) rose by 0.39%, with the latest price at 1.04 yuan [1] - The Free Cash Flow ETF recorded a turnover rate of 3.56% and a transaction volume of 132 million yuan, with an average daily transaction volume of 293 million yuan over the past year, ranking first among comparable funds [1] Group 2 - Over the past week, the Free Cash Flow ETF experienced continuous net inflows totaling 10.5 million yuan, with a scale increase of 97.34 million yuan, also ranking first among comparable funds [1] - Leveraged funds are actively investing, with a net financing amount of 1.4453 million yuan on the previous trading day and a latest financing balance of 23.6311 million yuan [3] - The management fee rate of the Free Cash Flow ETF is 0.15%, and the custody fee rate is 0.05%, which are the lowest among comparable funds [3] Group 3 - As of June 30, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the Guozheng Free Cash Flow Index include SAIC Motor, China National Offshore Oil, Midea Group, Gree Electric Appliances, Luoyang Molybdenum, China Aluminum, Xiamen International Trade, Chint Electric, Shanghai Electric, and China Power, collectively accounting for 57.97% [3] - The tracking error of the Free Cash Flow ETF year-to-date is 0.141%, the highest tracking accuracy among comparable funds [3]

Group 1 - The rare earth sector has shown a strong upward trend, with the rare earth ETF (516780) experiencing a net inflow of 287 million yuan over seven consecutive trading days from July 9 to July 17, 2025, marking it as the only rare earth-themed ETF in the A-share market to achieve this [1][2] - As of July 17, 2025, the rare earth ETF (516780) reached a new high with 1.184 billion shares and a total scale of 1.452 billion yuan, reflecting a nearly 30% growth in product scale since July [1][2] - The demand for rare earths is being driven by the growth in domestic industries such as new energy vehicles, industrial robots, and low-altitude economy, which is expected to enhance the profitability of companies within the industry [1][2] Group 2 - The prices of rare earth products, particularly praseodymium and neodymium, have increased, with the price of praseodymium neodymium oxide reaching 466,400 yuan per ton as of July 15, 2025, representing a 17.2% increase in the first half of the year [2] - The rare earth ETF (516780) tracks the CSI Rare Earth Industry Index, which includes companies involved in rare earth mining, processing, trading, and applications, with leading companies such as Northern Rare Earth, China Rare Earth, and China Aluminum among its top five constituents [2] - The management of the rare earth ETF, Huatai-PB Fund, has over 18 years of experience in ETF operations, with its ETFs collectively exceeding 500 billion yuan in scale, placing it in the top tier of the industry [2] Group 3 - The investment value of the rare earth sector is expected to further increase due to strong demand resilience and rising raw material prices, making the rare earth ETF (516780) an attractive option for investors [3] - Investors can also consider the connection funds (Class A: 014331/Class C: 014332) to capitalize on the recovery opportunities in the rare earth industry [3]

Group 1 - The Chain Expo showcased over 110 renowned companies in advanced manufacturing, including China CRRC, China Aluminum Group, Siemens, Honeywell, Corning, and Sumitomo Electric, highlighting the latest practices in rail transportation, aerospace, low-altitude economy, and industrial automation [1] - The theme event "Leading New Quality Productivity Development with Technological Innovation" emphasized that modern manufacturing is essential for a better life, and international cooperation is crucial for accelerating advanced manufacturing development [1] - Airbus's COO in China highlighted the importance of a global supply chain in the aviation industry, showcasing the relationship between Chinese manufacturing and the A320 aircraft, with components produced in China [1] Group 2 - Intelligent manufacturing is becoming the main focus for upgrading the manufacturing industry, with Siemens developing 18 digital and intelligent products, 16 of which were completed in just 9 months in China [2] - Honeywell is empowering small and medium-sized enterprises for digital transformation, emphasizing the unique demands of the Chinese market and collaborating with local associations, universities, suppliers, and customers [2] - China Aluminum Group is embracing digitalization by establishing the first "dark factory" in the non-ferrous metal industry, aiming for automation to improve efficiency and safety while reducing costs [2]