2026年，要坚持"双碳"引领，打造绿色低碳发展高地。健全碳排放双控配套制度，推进国家碳达峰试点 城市建设，抓好工业等17个领域碳达峰工作，建设产品碳足迹体系，精准管控"两高"行业，打造20家省 级以上零碳园区，推进零碳货运走廊建设。加快风光核氢等重点项目建设，非化石能源装机达到1.5亿 千瓦。抓好新能源消纳利用，推进万华新一代电池材料等10个绿电产业园建设，拓展绿电直连、虚拟电 厂等应用场景，探索源网荷储一体化新模式。持续提高外电入鲁绿电比重。以抓好中央生态环保督察反 馈问题整改为契机，完成水泥、焦化行业70%以上产能全流程超低排放改造，开展30个以上传统产业集 群大气污染综合治理。加强大运河生态环境保护，推进25条（个）重点河湖生态流量达标，美丽河湖、 美丽海湾建成率分别达到30%、50%。实施16处大宗工业固废回填试点，加强噪声污染防治。"一市一 品牌"建设美丽城市，美丽乡村整县建成比率达到30%。高质量建设黄河口国家公园，积极创建长岛国 家公园、国际零碳岛，推动自然保护地整合优化，努力打造人与自然和谐共生的美丽山东。 周雁凌 季英德 周乃翔指出，2025年山东省经济增长迈出坚实步伐，地区生产总值增长5 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry - wide investment ratings are provided in the report 2. Core Views - The report analyzes the futures market of various energy - chemical products, including their price trends, supply - demand fundamentals, and provides corresponding investment suggestions. For different products, the market is generally characterized by fluctuations, with some products facing supply - demand imbalances, cost pressures, or geopolitical impacts [2][9][10] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 PX, PTA, MEG - **PX**: Cost collapse leads to price decline and weakening of the monthly spread. It is in a state of inventory accumulation, and the processing fee has declined. It is recommended to control positions before the holiday, with a downward trend in the single - side price following the cost [5][9] - **PTA**: It is in a state of range - bound oscillation, with a bearish monthly spread. The polyester start - up rate is expected to decline marginally, and the supply is stable, resulting in a situation of inventory accumulation in January - February. The single - side price should focus on the support level of 5100 - 5200 yuan/ton [10] - **MEG**: It is a single - side range - bound market, and it is recommended to operate within the range of 3700 - 4000. The supply is increasing, and the import volume remains high. The downstream demand is weak, and the inventory accumulation pattern is difficult to change [10] 3.2 Rubber - It shows a wide - range oscillation. The price of Thai raw materials has increased, and the production in some regions has decreased. However, the overall market trend is neutral [11][12][14] 3.3 Synthetic Rubber - It oscillates under pressure. The inventory of domestic cis - butadiene rubber sample enterprises has decreased, and the port inventory of butadiene has declined. The supply pressure of butadiene is increasing, and the futures price is falling from a high - valuation level [15][16][17] 3.4 LLDPE - The import is narrowing, and the bids are limited. The strong naphtha compresses the cracking profit. The raw material oil price has stabilized, and the downstream demand has weakened. The supply side has some changes, and attention should be paid to the inventory accumulation during the holiday and the destocking rate after the holiday [18][19] 3.5 PP - The valuation repair is limited, and the L - PP spread is under pressure. The cost side has stabilized, and the supply - demand game of existing inventory has intensified. The demand side has limited support, and attention should be paid to the marginal changes of PDH devices [21][22] 3.6 Caustic Soda - The near - month delivery pressure is relatively large. The inventory in Shandong is high, and the short - term spot weakness is difficult to reverse. However, the far - month contract may face cost increases and large - scale production cuts [24][25] 3.7 Pulp - It oscillates. The import pulp market has declined, mainly affected by weak demand, the inability of cost increases to be transmitted, and the slowdown of downstream production activities before the holiday [30][31][33] 3.8 Glass - The price of glass original sheets is stable. The market demand is weakening before the holiday, and the local production capacity is expected to decrease, which provides some support for the price [35][36] 3.9 Methanol - It oscillates with support. The port methanol price has declined, and the inventory has decreased. The inland price has continued to decline. The macro - level has both positive and negative factors, and the supply - demand pattern suppresses the upward price space. The cost provides support at the bottom [38][40][41] 3.10 Urea - It oscillates in the short term. The enterprise inventory has decreased slightly, and the spot price is stable. The short - term oscillation has support, with a fundamental pressure level of around 1830 yuan/ton and a support level of around 1750 - 1760 yuan/ton [43][44][45] 3.11 Styrene - It oscillates strongly. The capital sentiment has receded, and the market is in a high - production and high - inventory pattern. The downstream profit has been squeezed, and the inventory is expected to enter a seasonal accumulation phase. The upward driving force is limited [46][47] 3.12 Soda Ash - The spot market has little change. The domestic soda ash market is oscillating at a low level, the enterprise production is slightly decreasing, and the downstream demand is tepid. The price may oscillate weakly and stably [51] 3.13 LPG and Propylene - **LPG**: Short - term geopolitical disturbances are strong, but the fundamental driving force is downward. The price of CP paper has increased, and the PDH device has some maintenance plans [54][59] - **Propylene**: The upward driving force is limited, and attention should be paid to cost - side disturbances [54] 3.14 PVC - It oscillates weakly. The spot supply and demand are weak, the export atmosphere has weakened, and the industry continues to accumulate inventory. The high - production and high - inventory structure is difficult to change [62][63] 3.15 Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Fuel Oil**: It continues to rebound, and the short - term weakness is suspended [65] - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: It adjusts in a narrow range, and the price difference between high - and low - sulfur in the overseas spot market remains at a historical low [65] 3.16 Container Freight Index (European Line) - The expectation of price increase is rising again. The futures price has increased, and shipping companies have announced price increases. The supply - side capacity has been adjusted, and the geopolitical situation affects the shipping routes. Different contracts have different investment strategies [67][77][80] 3.17 Short - Fiber and Bottle Chips - **Short - Fiber**: It is in a short - term oscillating market. The futures price oscillates weakly, and the spot price is stable. The factory sales rate is highly differentiated [82] - **Bottle Chips**: It is in a short - term oscillating market. The upstream raw material price has declined, and the factory price has been partially adjusted. The market trading atmosphere is acceptable [83] 3.18 Offset Printing Paper - It is recommended to hold short positions and reverse spreads. The spot price in Shandong and Guangdong markets is stable, the paper mill orders are average, and the market trading atmosphere is weak [85][86][88] 3.19 Pure Benzene - It oscillates strongly. The port inventory of pure benzene has decreased slightly, and the spot and paper - cargo prices have declined. The market is in a state of strong oscillation [90][91][92]

瑞银表示，全球化工行业盈利低迷背景下，海外高成本产能加速退出。当前中国化工行业1.5倍的P/BV 估值处于过去20年43%分位，主动权益基金对化工板块的超配比例在2025年Q4触底回升，处于10年低 位。历史数据显示，当PPI同比转正时，化工板块多实现超额收益，而瑞银宏观团队预测2026年末至 2027年初PPI将重回正增长通道，行业配置价值凸显。 截至2月6日10:50，中证石化产业指数强势上涨2.18%，同标的指数规模最大的石化ETF（159731）上涨 2.02%，石化ETF近20个交易日资金净流入超14.37亿元，资金抢筹特征显著。 石化ETF（159731）及其联接基金（017855/017856）紧密跟踪中证石化产业指数，受基础化工和石油 石化双轮驱动，同时涵盖高股息和高成长资产，权重股包括万华化学（全球MDI龙头）、中国石油（国 内油气龙头）、中国石化（国内炼化龙头）、盐湖股份（国内钾肥龙头）等。 【免责声明】本文仅代表作者本人观点，与和讯网无关。和讯网站对文中陈述、观点判断保持中立，不 对所包含内容的准确性、可靠性或完整性提供任何明示或暗示的保证。请读者仅作参考，并请自行承担 全部责任。邮箱： ...

Group 1 - The A-share market opened lower but rebounded, with the chemical sector performing well, highlighted by Wanhua Chemical rising over 4% and Duofuduo increasing by 8% [1] - The supply side of the industry is tightening, with European companies reducing or shutting down overseas chemical production capacity. Domestic policies are promoting anti-involution, with the "Petrochemical Industry Stabilization and Growth Work Plan" strictly controlling new capacity and eliminating outdated capacity, which is expected to enhance corporate profitability [1] - January PMI data fell below the growth line, but price-related indicators showed improvement, including raw material purchase prices rising to 56, the highest in two years, and the producer price index (PPI) showing positive signals with a continuous narrowing of the year-on-year decline since July 2025, indicating that pressure on industrial product prices is being released [1] Group 2 - Chemical prices showed significant recovery in January, with liquid chlorine, lithium hydroxide, acetonitrile, lithium carbonate, and butadiene performing well, suggesting that the profitability of chemical companies is likely to be restored [1] - The Jia Shi Chemical ETF (159129) tracks the CSI sub-sector chemical industry theme index, covering various high-growth sectors such as basic chemicals, fertilizers, chemical agriculture, chemical fibers, and new energy materials. The top ten weighted stocks, including Wanhua Chemical, Salt Lake Co., Cangge Mining, and Rongsheng Petrochemical, are leaders in their respective sub-sectors, balancing the benefits of industry anti-involution and resource material growth opportunities [1] - The ETF has a combined management and custody fee rate of 0.2% per year, which is among the lowest in its category, providing a clear long-term cost advantage and offering off-market connection funds to meet different investor trading habits [2]

Group 1 - The A-shares market opened lower on February 6, but the A500 ETF fund (512050) saw a surge, with trading volume exceeding 10 billion yuan, ranking first among its peers [1] - Several chemical stocks within the A500 ETF rose significantly, with New Hope rising by 7%, and Zhejiang Longsheng, Huafeng Chemical, and Wanhua Chemical all increasing by over 4% [1] - Recent capital inflows into core broad-based assets have accelerated, with the A500 ETF fund experiencing a net inflow of over 1.7 billion yuan over three consecutive days [1] Group 2 - The A500 ETF fund (512050) offers advantages such as low fees (only 0.2%), strong liquidity (ranking first in average daily trading volume over the past year), and a large scale (over 40 billion yuan) [2] - The fund tracks the CSI A500 Index and employs a dual strategy of industry-balanced allocation and leading stock selection, covering all 35 sub-sectors, blending value and growth attributes [2] - Compared to the CSI 300, the A500 ETF is overweight in sectors like AI industry chain, pharmaceutical biology, electric equipment and new energy, and defense industry, providing a natural "dumbbell" investment characteristic [2]

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Some PDH units are expected to restart, and downstream demand is following up moderately. The main drivers for propylene in the later stage lie in the trends of crude oil and propane on the cost side, the maintenance status of major PDH units, and the follow - up of downstream demand under cost pressure. [1][2] - It is advisable to adopt a wait - and - see approach for unilateral trading due to high short - term geopolitical uncertainties and increased cost - side fluctuations [2]. 3. Summary of Each Section According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Propylene Basis Structure - Propylene's main contract closing price is 6205 yuan/ton (-148), the East China spot price is 6490 yuan/ton (+0), and the North China spot price is 6440 yuan/ton (+10). The East China basis is 285 yuan/ton (+148), and the Shandong basis is 235 yuan/ton (+158) [1]. 3.2 Propylene Production Profit and Operating Rate - Propylene's operating rate is 72% (+1%), China's propylene CFR - Japan's naphtha CFR is 237 US dollars/ton (-15), propylene CFR - 1.2 propane CFR is 98 US dollars/ton (-12), and the import profit is - 437 yuan/ton (+5) [1]. 3.3 Propylene Downstream Profit and Operating Rate - PP powder's operating rate is 31% (-0.61%), and the production profit is - 240 yuan/ton (-10); epoxy propane's operating rate is 70% (-3%), and the production profit is - 783 yuan/ton (-328); n - butanol's operating rate is 85% (-2%), and the production profit is 845 yuan/ton (-106); octanol's operating rate is 91% (+0%), and the production profit is 941 yuan/ton (-107); acrylic acid's operating rate is 82% (-2%), and the production profit is 192 yuan/ton (+0); acrylonitrile's operating rate is 69% (+0%), and the production profit is - 917 yuan/ton (-60); phenol - acetone's operating rate is 86% (-2%), and the production profit is - 766 yuan/ton (+0) [1]. 3.4 Propylene Inventory - The in - plant inventory of propylene is 40,470 tons (-2,320) [1].

Group 1 - The overall A-share market continued to decline, but the chemical sector rebounded significantly after a low opening, with the Chemical ETF (516020) rising over 2% in early trading, leading the A-share ETF market [1] - According to GF Securities, the chemical industry is a typical cyclical sector that usually follows a five-year cycle consisting of four stages: "profit upturn - capacity expansion - profit bottoming - capacity clearance/demand expectation improvement." The firm is optimistic about the chemical sector's prospects due to negative capital expenditure growth, anti-involution measures, global interest rate cuts, and domestic demand expansion [1] - China Merchants Bank Securities forecasts that the chemical industry's prosperity will be at a low point in 2025, but by 2026, the current round of industry expansion will be nearing its end. Anti-involution measures are expected to catalyze a recovery in industry profits, while new materials will benefit from rapid downstream demand growth, potentially initiating a new phase of high growth [1] Group 2 - The Chemical ETF (516020) and its connected fund (012537) track the CSI segmented chemical industry theme index, with component stocks covering popular themes such as AI computing power, anti-involution, robotics, and new energy. Nearly 50% of the portfolio is concentrated in large-cap leading stocks, including Wanhua Chemical and Salt Lake Industry, providing opportunities for strong performers [1] - The remaining 50% of the portfolio is diversified across leading stocks in sub-sectors such as phosphate fertilizer and phosphate chemicals, fluorine chemicals, and nitrogen fertilizers, aiming to capture investment opportunities within the chemical sector comprehensively [1]

华鑫证券认为，在国际油价下跌的背景下，继续看好具有最高资产质量和高股息率特征的三桶油。其中 中国石化的化工品产出最多，深度受益油价下行带来的原材料成本下降。此外，一系列民营大炼化公司 因其较高的化工品收率和生产效率，也会在本轮油价下行行情中获益，建议关注荣盛石化、恒力石化 石化ETF紧密跟踪中证石化产业指数，截至2026年1月30日，中证石化产业指数(H11057)前十大权重股 分别为万华化学、中国石油、盐湖股份、中国石化、中国海油、藏格矿业、华鲁恒升、恒力石化、巨化 股份、宝丰能源，前十大权重股合计占比55.71%。（以上所列股票仅为指数成份股，无特定推荐之 意） 石化ETF(159731)，场外联接(华夏中证石化产业ETF发起式联接A：017855；华夏中证石化产业ETF发 起式联接C：017856)。 截至2026年2月6日10:19，中证石化产业指数(H11057)强势上涨2.33%，成分股浙江龙盛上涨7.39%，华 峰化学上涨5.68%，荣盛石化上涨5.22%，万华化学，鲁西化工等个股跟涨。石化ETF(159731)上涨 2.32%，最新价报1.01元。流动性方面，石化ETF盘中换手4.52%。拉长 ...

Group 1 - The chemical ETF (159870) shows strong recovery, indicating a consensus among investors, with noticeable market rotation before the holiday, particularly in cyclical sectors [1] - Local government meetings prioritize green development, with ongoing monitoring and transformation of high-energy-consuming industries, driving the chemical industry's upgrade [1] - The price of disperse dyes has increased by 1,000 yuan, supported by rigid downstream demand and low cost share, with strict safety and environmental regulations leading to fragile supply, suggesting a significant price increase across the dye industry chain [1] - The global fertilizer market is entering a high-price and tight balance phase, with continuous supply disruptions in overseas nitrogen and phosphorus fertilizers pushing prices higher, while potassium fertilizers are expected to exceed demand expectations [1] Group 2 - Since 2022, the overall profit of the chemical industry has been on a downward trend, with a cumulative profit decline of 8% year-on-year for chemical raw materials and products manufacturing from January to October 2025, and a 52% drop compared to the same period in 2022 [2] - The industry’s PPI index is expected to fall below zero in Q3 2024, indicating a bottoming out of the industry’s economic conditions, with a capacity utilization rate of 72.5%, down 3.5 percentage points year-on-year [2] - Northeast Securities highlights the electronic gas sector, noting that electronic specialty gases are critical for semiconductor manufacturing, requiring high purity standards and concentrated downstream applications in integrated circuits, which account for nearly 80% of global demand [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights a significant price increase in disperse dye, with prices rising by 1000 yuan per ton, indicating a bullish trend in the chemical industry [1] - The price of a key raw material for disperse dye, known as reducing agent, has increased from 25,000 yuan to approximately 50,000 yuan over the past two years, suggesting a strong upward momentum in the market [1] - Historical data from 2013-2014 indicates that disperse dye prices can double, with current prices still having substantial room for growth, as they have only reached 20,000 yuan [1] Group 2 - As of January 30, 2026, the top ten weighted stocks in the CSI Chemical Industry Theme Index (000813) account for 44.82% of the index, including companies like Wanhua Chemical and Yanhua Co [2] - The CSI Chemical Industry Theme Index is composed of seven sub-indices, reflecting the overall performance of major listed companies in the chemical sector [1][2] - The chemical ETF (159870) closely tracks the CSI Chemical Industry Theme Index, showing a rise of over 1% recently, indicating positive market sentiment [1]