2026 年 2 月 6 日 LPG：短期地缘扰动偏强，基本面驱动向下 丙烯：上行驱动有限，关注成本端扰动 陈鑫超 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020238 chenxinchao@gtht.com 赵书岑（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03147780 zhaoshucen@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 LPG、丙烯基本面数据 | | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨幅 | 夜盘收盘价 夜盘涨幅 | | | | | 昨日成交 较前日变动 昨日持仓 较前日变动 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 2603 | 4,173 | -1.83% | 4,191 | 0.43% | | 2603 | 66,139 | 2,994 | 50,476 | -10,199 | | | PG | 2604 | 4,463 | -1.17% | 4,486 | 0.52% | PG | 2604 | 32,788 | 7,001 | 69,243 | 2,533 | | 期货市场 | | ...

Group 1 - The core focus of the market is on the technology growth and cyclical sectors, with electronic stocks leading the recommendations at 12.83% [1] - The media industry saw a significant increase in recommendation by 66.88% compared to January, while the automotive sector's recommendation dropped over 33% [3] - Zhongji Xuchuang, a leading optical module manufacturer, received joint recommendations from 9 brokerages, driven by its strong position in the AI computing sector and expected profit doubling by 2025 [3][4] - Zijin Mining, recommended by 8 brokerages, is projected to achieve a record net profit exceeding 50 billion by 2025, benefiting from high international gold prices and strong copper demand [4] - Haiguang Information, also favored by 8 brokerages, reported a 90% profit increase in the first three quarters of the previous year, supported by national initiatives for computing infrastructure [4] Group 2 - Guizhou Moutai returned to the "gold stock" list after 5 months, receiving recommendations from 6 brokerages, with a stock price increase of over 10% recently [4] - Wanhua Chemical, favored by 7 brokerages, is expected to see a rebound in MDI prices and significant earnings growth as economic recovery strengthens [4] - China Ping An, supported by 6 brokerages, reported a 46% increase in new business value, indicating positive transformation prospects [6] - China Jushi, a global leader in fiberglass, is also favored for its strong profit growth and critical role in the electronics supply chain [6] - Foster, a leader in photovoltaic film, is recommended by 4 brokerages, with expectations of exceeding market growth in solar installations by 2025 [6] Group 3 - The market is expected to experience volatility before the Spring Festival, with better performance anticipated post-holiday as policies are implemented [7] - Historical data shows a 77% probability of the Shanghai Composite Index rising in the first 10 trading days before the Spring Festival, with an average increase of 1.9% [7] - In January, nearly 70% of the 307 recommended stocks saw price increases, with some brokerages achieving over 16% returns on their recommended stock portfolios [7] Group 4 - The market's trading activity is concentrated around AI computing, resource commodities like gold and copper, and a select few consumer stocks with strong earnings certainty [9] - The flow of funds is oscillating between "technology" and "resources," seeking companies with realizable performance and compelling narratives [9] - The spring market window remains open, but structural differentiation is more pronounced than ever [9]

关键词| DT新叶奖 生物基领域"奥斯卡"——「 2026(第4届)DT新叶奖 」火热申报中，将于第11届生物基大会 正式揭晓获奖名单，并举行颁奖典礼。 首轮报名截止： 2月10日，享独家宣传 。 参选单位&独家宣传 ： 万华化学 光华伟业 双枪科技 裕同包装 华润双鹤 利夫生物 中科国生 聚维元创 糖能科技 京博中聚 骐业科技 瑞恒茂 河南浩森生物 军安绿色新材 华呋新材 麒祥 材料 泰安羽时 元一生物 华澄生物 播下环保 凤登绿能 和塑美 拜科瑞生物 壹科麦 碧嘉材料 科幂仪器 无锡华辰 托摩根生物 谱键科技 碧普仪器 道生生物 德渊化工 漂莱特 碳和新材 微 谱检测 武汉瑞鸣 树合科技 唯铂莱生物 ... ... 生物基创新应用场景有哪些？什么样的生物基应用解决方案值得被关注？ 为进一步挖掘生物基领域的创新应 用产品，「 # 2026DT新叶奖 」已邀 请了 20余 位 来 自 运动鞋服、汽车及零部件、包装、家具家电 等领域 的专 家和高管 加入评委团 。 从品牌用户的角度，生物基材料产品在以上领域应用 需兼顾材料性能带来的更高附加值、应用适配度和替代可行性，产品的合成路径清洁低耗，并能进 一步为终端产 ...

Group 1 - BASF announced a price increase of $200 per ton for its Lupranate® TDI in the Asia-Pacific region (excluding mainland China) and MEAF regions, effective immediately, citing rising transportation, energy, and compliance costs as core drivers [1][7] - The global TDI industry is undergoing a restructuring, with ongoing cost pressures and supply reductions expected to persist, while China's TDI industry is gaining market power due to its capacity and cost advantages [3][9] - Recent closures and production cuts of TDI facilities in various countries due to environmental regulations and high operational costs have led to a significant supply gap, with 24% of global TDI capacity undergoing maintenance as of January 2026 [3][9] Group 2 - China's TDI industry is experiencing a dual benefit of capacity expansion and export growth, with major domestic producers like Wanhua Chemical and Covestro increasing their production capacities [3][9] - The domestic TDI market is characterized by a complex supply-demand dynamic, with industry capacity utilization dropping to 55%, while some leading companies maintain high operational loads [3][11] - By 2025, China's TDI export dependency is projected to rise to 36%, with a cumulative export volume of 556,500 tons, marking a 52.83% year-on-year increase, primarily targeting emerging markets like Vietnam and Indonesia [11][12] Group 3 - The rapid expansion of domestic TDI capacity has shifted China from an import-dependent market to a core supplier in the global TDI market, with expectations that the global supply focus will increasingly shift towards China [12] - Only Covestro's Shanghai facility is expected to add new TDI capacity globally in 2026, with the upcoming 300,000-ton TDI facility by Hualu Hengsheng being one of the few planned projects, indicating China's pivotal role in future TDI supply [12]

参选单位&独家宣传 ： 万华化学 光华伟业 双枪科技 裕同包装 华润双鹤 利夫生物 中科国生 聚维元创 糖能科技 京博中聚 骐业科技 瑞恒茂 河南浩森生物 军安绿色新材 华呋新材 麒祥 材料 泰安羽时 元一生物 华澄生物 播下环保 凤登绿能 和塑美 拜科瑞生物 壹科麦 碧嘉材料 科幂仪器 无锡华辰 托摩根生物 谱键科技 碧普仪器 道生生物 德渊化工 漂莱特 碳和新材 微 谱检测 武汉瑞鸣 树合科技 唯铂莱生物 ... ... 关键词| DT新叶奖 生物基领域"奥斯卡"——「 2026(第4届)DT新叶奖 」火热申报中，将于第11届生物基大会 正式揭晓获奖名单，并举行颁奖典礼。 首轮报名截止： 2月10日，享独家宣传 。 生物基创新应用场景有哪些？什么样的生物基应用解决方案值得被关注？ 为进一步挖掘生物基领域的创新应 用产品，「 # 2026DT新叶奖 」已邀 请了 20余 位 来 自 运动鞋服、汽车及零部件、包装、家具家电 等领域 的专 家和高管 加入评委团 。 从品牌用户的角度，生物基材料产品在以上领域应用 需兼顾材料性能带来的更高附加值、应用适配度和替代可行性，产品的合成路径清洁低耗，并能进 一步为终端产 ...

【冠通期货研究报告】 PVC日报：震荡下行 发布日期：2026年2月5日 【行情分析】 上游西北地区电石价格稳定。目前供应端，PVC开工率环比增加0.19个百分点至78.93%，PVC开工 率小幅增加，处于近年同期中性水平。临近春节，PVC下游开工率环比下降0.11个百分点，下游主动 备货意愿偏低。出口方面，受取消出口退税影响，市场出现抢出口现象，加之美国面临寒潮冲击， PVC企业赶在春节假期前提前预售，国内出口签单继续环比走高，中国台湾台塑PVC 2月份出口船货报 价上涨40美元/吨。上周社会库存继续增加，目前仍偏高，库存压力仍然较大。2025年1-12月份，房 地产仍在调整阶段，投资、新开工、施工、竣工面积同比降幅仍较大，投资、销售、竣工等同比增 速进一步下降。30大中城市商品房周度成交面积环比回升，但仍处于近年同期偏低水平，房地产改 善仍需时间。氯碱综合毛利承压，部分生产企业开工预期下降，但目前产量下降有限，本周福建万 华、山东恒通仍在检修，PVC开工率变化不大，期货仓单仍处高位。2月是国内PVC传统需求淡季，临 近春节假期，下游采购积极性一般，社会库存继续增加。生态环境部表示将聚焦无汞催化剂研发攻 关 ...

Core Insights - The latest price of butadiene as of February 4 is 10,300.00 CNY per ton, with a recent increase of 11.07% over the last 15 days, 20.00% over the last 30 days, and 47.85% over the last 60 days [2][4] Industry Overview - Butadiene is experiencing significant price increases, indicating potential opportunities for investment in related companies [2][4] - The companies involved in butadiene production include Huajin Co., Ltd. (000059), Qixiang Tengda (002408), Rongsheng Petrochemical (002493), Satellite Chemical (002648), Sinopec (600028), Wanhua Chemical (600309), Hengli Petrochemical (600346), and China National Petroleum (601857) [2][4] Investment Strategy - The cyclical stock selection method focuses on companies that produce raw materials, where profits are highly influenced by raw material price fluctuations [2][4] - Utilizing the price fluctuation data from the business community can help identify buy signals for cyclical stocks ahead of quarterly and annual reports, making it a crucial strategy for investing in this sector [2][4]

Core Viewpoint - The chemical industry ETF managed by E Fund has shown a mixed performance with a recent decline in the index, while it has experienced significant inflows and growth in scale over the past month [1][2] Group 1: Index Performance - As of February 5, 2026, the China Securities Petrochemical Industry Index (H11057) decreased by 1.75% [1] - The leading stocks included Hengyi Petrochemical up by 1.27%, Sankeshu up by 1.25%, and Guangdong Hongda up by 1.09% [1] - The worst performers were Lianhong Xinke down by 6.32%, Cangge Mining down by 4.85%, and Shengquan Group down by 3.39% [1] Group 2: ETF Performance - The E Fund Chemical Industry ETF (516570) fell by 1.74%, with the latest price at 1.08 yuan [1] - Over the past month, the ETF has increased by 10.17%, ranking in the top half among comparable funds [1] - The ETF's trading volume was 4.69% with a total transaction value of 75.52 million yuan [1] Group 3: Fund Inflows and Scale - The E Fund Chemical Industry ETF has seen continuous net inflows over the past 14 days, with a maximum single-day inflow of 391 million yuan, totaling 1.4 billion yuan [1] - The average daily net inflow reached 100 million yuan [1] - The ETF's latest scale reached 1.631 billion yuan, marking a one-year high [1] - The total shares of the ETF reached 1.493 billion, also a one-year high [1] Group 4: Top Holdings - As of January 30, 2026, the top ten weighted stocks in the China Securities Petrochemical Industry Index accounted for 55.71% of the index [2] - The top ten stocks include Wanhua Chemical, China Petroleum, and Salt Lake Industry among others [2]

截至2026年2月5日15:00，中证石化产业指数(H11057)下跌1.75%。成分股方面涨跌互现，恒逸石化领涨 1.27%，三棵树上涨1.25%，广东宏大上涨1.09%；联泓新科领跌6.32%，藏格矿业下跌4.85%，圣泉集团 下跌3.39%。石化ETF(159731)下跌1.78%，最新报价0.99元。 流动性方面，石化ETF盘中换手8.27%，成交1.39亿元。拉长时间看，截至2月4日，石化ETF近1周日均 成交3.14亿元。 石化ETF(159731)，场外联接(华夏中证石化产业ETF发起式联接A：017855；华夏中证石化产业ETF发 起式联接C：017856)。 从收益能力看，截至2026年2月4日，石化ETF自成立以来，最高单月回报为15.86%，最长连涨月数为9 个月，最长连涨涨幅为60.75%，上涨月份平均收益率为5.59%。截至2026年1月30日，石化ETF近1年夏 普比率为2.52。 光大证券分析指出，随着行政监管与行业自律协同推进，炼化及化纤领域低价恶性竞争有望被有效遏 制；炼化扩能已近尾声，叠加"油转化""油转特"加速，行业供需结构趋于改善；涤纶长丝新增产能有 限，结构性优化提速 ...

每经AI快讯，天眼查App显示，近日，万华化学集团（烟台）烯烃有限公司发生工商变更，注册资本由 30亿元人民币增至40亿元人民币。该公司成立于2024年7月，经营范围包括化工产品生产、化工产品销 售、基础化学原料制造、专用化学产品制造等，由万华化学全资持股。 ...