Investment Rating - The report maintains a consistent sector preference, favoring sports brands, diversified retailers, dairy, beverages, and restaurants, while being less favorable towards apparel/footwear OEM, furniture, projectors, discretionary small kitchen appliances, jewelry, and non-super-premium spirits [11]. Core Insights - Consumption in China has shown signs of recovery, with retail sales growth improving to +4.6% year-over-year in 1Q25, and companies in the coverage reporting an average growth of 14% compared to 12% in 4Q24 [1]. - Despite the positive growth, companies remain cautious about the outlook due to ongoing volatility and external factors such as US-China tariff developments impacting consumer confidence [2][1]. - Margin performance in 1Q25 was mixed, with some companies benefiting from favorable raw material prices and cost control, while others faced risks from marketing investments and competition [1]. - Companies are generally maintaining disciplined pricing strategies and healthier inventory levels, although some categories like spirits and sportswear are experiencing challenges due to demand pressures [1]. - The impact of tariffs on earnings and consumer sentiment is significant, with companies cautious about the second half of 2025 amid uncertainties [2]. Summary by Sections Key Findings from 1Q25 Results - Retail sales growth improved to +4.6% year-over-year, with coverage companies reporting an average growth of 14% [1]. - Labor Day consumption growth accelerated, indicating a potential rebound in consumer spending [1]. Expectations for 2Q25 - Companies are cautious about the outlook for 2H25 due to tariff uncertainties, although those with market share gain opportunities may be more resilient [2]. Sector/Stock Preferences - Preferred sectors include sports brands, diversified retailers, dairy, beverages, and restaurants, while least preferred sectors include apparel/footwear OEM and furniture [11]. Macro Data Points - The report notes that macroeconomic data points are solid, but ongoing tariff developments and policy support need to be monitored [11]. Valuation Methodology - The report emphasizes the importance of understanding the valuation methodology and the potential risks associated with it [11].

联署企业一致反对"关税倒逼制造业回流"的逻辑。Nike、adidas等指出，运动鞋生产依赖精密模具与熟 练工人，转移产能将导致至少18-24个月断供，且美国缺乏配套产业链。据国信证券分析，鞋服类产品 加价倍数普遍为5倍，供应链利润空间仅能承受约5%的关税分摊，最终涨价压力将转嫁消费者。 目前，美国零售联合会已预警关税将加剧通胀，运动鞋均价或上涨10%。行业巨头正加速调整物流体 系，部分品牌将库存转移至美国本土仓库以缓冲冲击，但长期仍依赖政策调整。 联名信指出，鞋类制造回流美国需"巨额资本投入与数十年规划"，而当前供应链高度依赖越南、印尼等 亚洲生产基地。数据显示，Nike约50%、adidas 39%的鞋履产能集中于越南，两国合计贡献全球运动鞋 产量的60%以上。若加征关税，美国消费者将承担近100%的税负，工薪家庭购鞋成本或翻倍。 FDRA强调，鞋类平均关税已达11.3%，部分品类税率高达67.5%，若叠加25%新税，部分儿童鞋总税率 将飙升至220%，远超企业承受能力。平价品牌首当其冲，可能导致库存短缺与大规模倒闭潮。尽管美 国政府提出"90天暂缓期"，但越南、印尼等核心产区仍面临供应链中断风险。 （原标 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for key companies in the textile and apparel sector, including Anta Sports, Tabo, and others, indicating a positive outlook for their performance in 2025 [5][14][30]. Core Insights - Adidas reported a 13% year-on-year revenue growth in Q1 2025, reaching €6.153 billion, with a significant operating profit increase of 82% to €610 million [1][18]. - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on companies with strong fundamentals and quality brands, anticipating performance recovery and valuation increases in 2025 [4][27]. - The textile and apparel sector is expected to benefit from supportive national policies and increased participation in sports activities, leading to resilient growth for related brands [4][27]. Summary by Sections Adidas Performance - In Q1 2025, Adidas' revenue grew by 13% to €6.153 billion, with a gross margin increase of 0.9 percentage points to 52.1% and an operating profit surge of 82% to €610 million [1][18]. - The company maintains its guidance for 2025, expecting high single-digit revenue growth, with double-digit growth for the Adidas brand [1][18]. Regional Performance - North America saw a 2.8% revenue increase to €1.184 billion, while Europe experienced a 14% growth to €1.986 billion, with Adidas brand revenues growing by 13% and 16% respectively [2][21]. - The Greater China region reported a 12.7% revenue increase to €1.029 billion, with Adidas brand revenue up by 14%, marking it as Adidas' third-largest market globally [2][24]. - Emerging markets and Latin America showed robust growth, with revenues increasing by 23.4% to €870 million and 26.2% to €698 million respectively, with Adidas brand revenues growing by 25% and 27% [3][24]. Industry Outlook - The report highlights a stable global demand for apparel, with a focus on companies that can optimize their competitive positions amid changing market dynamics [28]. - It recommends companies like Shenzhou International and Huayi Group for their attractive valuations and growth potential, with projected P/E ratios of 11x and 15x for 2025 respectively [28][30]. - The report also notes the importance of product differentiation and brand strength in the jewelry sector, with companies like Chow Tai Fook and Chow Hong Ki expected to perform well [28].

证券研究报告 | 行业周报 gszqdatemark 2025 05 05 年 月 日 纺织服饰 周专题：adidas 公司 2025Q1 营收增长 13%，表现优异 【本周专题】 adidas 公司 2025Q1 营收增长 13%，表现超预期。adidas 披露 2025Q1 季 报，货币中性基础上营收同比增长 13%至 61.53 亿欧元，毛利率同比提升 0.9pcts 至 52.1%，经营利润同比大幅增长 82%至 6.1 亿欧元。截至 3 月末公司 库存同比增长 15%至 50.72 亿欧元，库存增加主要为了支持业务发展，库存处于 健康状态。 展望 2025 年：公司维持此前对于 2025 年的指引，预计 2025 年公司营收同比 增长高单位数，其中 adidas 品牌营收同比增长双位数。2025Q1 整体表现超公司 预期，然而当前美国关税问题或对公司业绩造成负面影响，综合考虑 Q1 表现以 及关税事件的不确定性因素后，公司维持此前指引。 分地区看：2025Q1 欧洲/大中华区业务增长亮眼，拉丁美洲业务持续快速增长。 1）欧洲&北美：货币中性基础上 2025Q1 北美业务营收同比增长 2.8%至 11 ...

Group 1 - The article focuses on the Asia Value & Moat Stocks research service, which targets value investors looking for Asia-listed stocks with significant discrepancies between price and intrinsic value [1] - The service emphasizes deep value balance sheet bargains, such as net cash stocks and low price-to-book (P/B) stocks, as well as wide moat stocks that represent high-quality businesses [1] - The author provides a range of watch lists with monthly updates, particularly concentrating on investment opportunities in the Hong Kong market [1]

Group 1 - The U.S. tariff policy has led to significant price increases in consumer goods, with a 53% rise in the price of shoes, from $150 to $230, due to the tariffs imposed [1][2] - The apparel industry is heavily reliant on imports, with 98% of clothing items imported, and the tariff policy is projected to increase clothing prices by 65% and shoe prices by up to 87% over the next year [2][3] - Basic clothing items, such as T-shirts and underwear, are expected to face the most severe impact from tariffs, as they are frequently imported and have low profit margins, which will lead to higher prices for low-income households [2][3] Group 2 - A letter signed by 76 shoe brands, including Nike and Adidas, has been sent to the White House requesting exemptions from the tariffs, citing that many companies producing affordable footwear cannot bear the high tariffs and may face closure [3] - The pharmaceutical sector is also affected, with an estimated increase of $51 billion in import costs due to tariffs, leading to a projected 12.9% rise in drug prices for consumers [3] - The tariffs are expected to reduce the competitiveness of the U.S. pharmaceutical industry, increasing production costs by 4.1% and potentially leading to job losses in the sector [3] Group 3 - Economic experts indicate that the damage from the tariff policy may already be done, with significant impacts expected to manifest by the end of May, particularly affecting low-income Americans who will spend a larger portion of their income on goods [4]

Group 1: Footwear Industry - The American Footwear Distributors and Retailers Association has requested the White House to exempt the footwear industry from the "reciprocal tariffs," stating that these tariffs pose a "survival threat" to the industry [1] - A letter signed by 76 footwear brands, including Nike, Adidas, Skechers, and Under Armour, indicates that many companies producing affordable footwear cannot bear the high tariffs and cannot pass on these costs to consumers [1] - The CEO of the association noted that the price of a $150 sneaker has increased to $230 due to tariffs, representing an $80 increase or a 53% rise [1][2] Group 2: Hair Care Industry - The U.S. tariff policy is causing significant price increases for many hair care products, leading to concerns among small business owners and consumers about rising costs [3] - In Los Angeles, a major center for the hair care industry, local businesses are feeling the impact of the tariff policy, with worries about increased prices for hair services [3] - A hair salon owner in Colorado mentioned that the tariff policy is affecting supply chains, and a hairstylist expressed concerns about having to pass on increased costs to customers [6]

Core Viewpoint - The Footwear Distributors and Retailers of America is requesting a tariff exemption from President Trump, citing the tariffs as an "existential threat" to the footwear industry, with 76 brands including Nike and Adidas signing the letter [1][2]. Industry Impact - Many companies producing affordable footwear for lower and middle-income families are unable to absorb high tariff rates or pass costs to consumers, risking business closures and low inventory for U.S. consumers [2]. - The footwear industry is already facing significant duties on products like children's shoes, with tariffs expected to range from 150% to about 220% for U.S. footwear companies [5]. Tariff Details - Trump's tariffs, announced on April 2, included high levies on key footwear supplier countries such as China, Vietnam, and Cambodia, with effective rates of 145% on Chinese imports and initial rates of over 45% for Vietnam and Cambodia reduced to 10% for a limited period [3]. - The higher tariffs on various trade partners are set to resume in early July, exacerbating the situation for the footwear industry [3]. Business Sentiment - Adidas has warned that tariffs will lead to increased prices for American consumers, while Nike's finance chief indicated that global levies and economic uncertainty would negatively impact current-quarter sales [4]. - The footwear association emphasized the urgency of the situation, stating that the industry cannot afford months to adjust to the new tariff regime, which undermines the certainty needed for investment in sourcing changes [6].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" with a downward adjustment [5][4]. Core Views - The company continues to advance its automotive interior leather business, with a focus on expanding production capacity in Indonesia and Vietnam [2][4]. - The financial performance for Q1 2025 shows a revenue of 600 million, a year-on-year increase of 5%, but a significant decline in net profit attributable to shareholders, down 45% year-on-year [1][4]. - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 1.5 yuan per 10 shares, with an expected payout of 40 million, resulting in a payout ratio of 31% [1]. Financial Performance Summary - For the full year 2024, the company reported a revenue of 3 billion, a year-on-year increase of 9%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 140 million, down 24% year-on-year [1][4]. - The revenue breakdown for 2024 shows that leather for shoes and bags generated 2 billion, accounting for 68% of total revenue, while automotive interior leather contributed 700 million, representing 24% of total revenue [2]. - The gross margin for automotive interior leather improved by 4 percentage points year-on-year to 34% [2]. Profit Forecast Adjustments - The profit forecast for 2025-2027 has been adjusted, with expected net profits of 150 million, 180 million, and 230 million respectively [4]. - The earnings per share (EPS) estimates have been revised to 0.5, 0.6, and 0.8 yuan for 2025-2027 [4]. Market Position and Growth Potential - The company has successfully entered the supply chains of international sports brands such as Adidas and COLEHAAN, indicating strong market positioning [2]. - The overseas revenue increased by 97% year-on-year, highlighting the potential for growth in international markets due to the investment in production capacity in Southeast Asia [2].

Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company reported revenue of 600 million, a year-on-year increase of 5%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 20 million, down 45% year-on-year, and a non-recurring net profit of 20 million, down 49% year-on-year [1] - For Q4 2024, the company achieved revenue of 900 million, a year-on-year increase of 24%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 30 million, up 150% year-on-year, and a non-recurring net profit of 30 million, up 21% year-on-year [1] - The total revenue for 2024 was 3 billion, a year-on-year increase of 9%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 140 million, down 24%, and a non-recurring net profit of 130 million, down 26% [1] Dividend and Management Changes - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 1.5 yuan per 10 shares (including tax), expecting a total payout of 40 million, resulting in a payout ratio of 31% [2] - Wu Meili resigned as the secretary of the board but continues to serve as the vice president, while Zhang Liang has been appointed as the new secretary of the board [2] Product Performance - Revenue from leather for shoes and bags in 2024 was 2 billion, a year-on-year increase of 8%, accounting for 68% of total revenue, with a gross margin of 18%, down 2 percentage points [3] - Revenue from automotive interior leather was 700 million, a year-on-year increase of 20%, accounting for 24% of total revenue, with a gross margin of 34%, up 4 percentage points [3] - Revenue from second-layer leather collagen products was 100 million, down 1% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 10%, down 2 percentage points [4] Regional Performance - Revenue from East China was 1.9 billion, a year-on-year increase of 8%, accounting for 65% of total revenue, with a gross margin of 22%, up 1 percentage point [5] - Revenue from South China was 600 million, down 1% year-on-year, accounting for 21% of total revenue, with a gross margin of 22%, down 2 percentage points [5] - Revenue from overseas markets was 300 million, a year-on-year increase of 97%, accounting for 10% of total revenue, with a gross margin of 21%, up 5 percentage points [5] Subsidiary Performance - The subsidiary Hongxing Automotive Leather reported a net profit of 150 million, up 51% year-on-year, attributed to increased sales and improved gross margin [6] - Lianhua Leather reported a net loss of 10 million, down 62% year-on-year, primarily due to increased financial expenses and exchange losses [6] Profit Forecast Adjustment - Based on the performance in 2024 and Q1 2025, the company has adjusted its profit forecast for 2025-2027, expecting net profits attributable to shareholders of 150 million, 180 million, and 230 million respectively [7] - The earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 0.5, 0.6, and 0.8 yuan for 2025-2027 [7]