商 品 研 究 2025 年 6 月 25 日 集运指数（欧线）：偏弱运行，10 空单酌情减仓 止盈 黄柳楠 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0015892 huangliunan@gtht.com 郑玉洁 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021502 zhengyujie@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 表 1：集运指数（欧线）基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨跌 | 昨日成交 | 昨日持仓 | 持仓变动 | 昨日成交/持仓 | | 前日成交/持仓 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | EC2506 | 1,888.1 | 0.16% | 1,178 | 2,776 | -585 | 0.42 | | 0.15 | | 期货 | EC2508 | 1,772.0 | -7.00% | 71,614 | 44,791 | -2,262 | 1.60 | | 1.50 | | | EC2510 | 1,304.6 | -5.53% | 21,428 | 31,621 | 107 | 0.68 | | 0.49 | | | ...

集运指数（欧线）观点： 10空单持有；逢高酌情加仓 国泰君安期货研究所 首席分析师/能化联席行政负责人·黄柳楠 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0015892 郑玉洁 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021502 日期：2025年6月22日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 综述 01 核心观点：10空单持有；逢高酌情加仓 | | 过去一周，集运指数偏弱震荡，主力2508合约周一至周四处在2000~2200点盘整。周五2508增仓下跌，最终收盘于1890点。 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 欧线即期运费 | 欧线基本面 | 美线及宏观事件 | 盘面交易逻辑及策略建议 | | 7月第一周马士基、PA、MSC推涨幅度均值400美元 | 7月已无待定航次，周均运力30.6万TEU/周，环 | | | | /FEU。 | 比6月上涨3.4%（或1万TUE/周）。具体而言，7月上 | 6月下旬美西主流船司报价暂稳在 | | | | 旬（wk27、wk28）平均30.1万TEU/周，7月下旬 | 2500~30 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The prices of Maersk on the Shanghai - Rotterdam route were revised down in the first week of July, while some shipping companies still intended to raise prices in the second half of the month [1]. - The supply and demand of the US routes both increased. The freight rates from Shanghai to the East and West of the US reached a high level and then declined, and it's necessary to pay attention to whether the prices have peaked [3]. - In August, it is the traditional peak season. There is still an expectation of price increase, and attention should be paid to the peak - time of the European route freight rates in 2025 and the downward slope of the subsequent freight rates [7]. - The conflict between Israel and Iran may affect the passage of the Strait of Hormuz, which has a greater impact on oil transportation and relatively less direct impact on container transportation [6]. - The delay of ships dragged down the SCFIS on June 16th, and the 06 contract will gradually return to the "real - world" trading as the delivery deadline approaches [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs I. Futures Prices - As of June 20, 2025, the total open interest of all contracts of the container shipping index for European routes was 88,168.00 lots, and the daily trading volume was 62,531.00 lots. The closing prices of EC2602, EC2604, EC2506, EC2508, EC2510, and EC2512 contracts were 1438.00, 1236.90, 1891.50, 2022.20, 1406.10, and 1590.50 respectively [8]. II. Spot Prices - The SCFI (Shanghai - Europe route) price announced on June 13th was 1844.00 US dollars/TEU, the SCFI (Shanghai - US West route) price was 4120.00 US dollars/FEU, and the SCFI (Shanghai - US East) price was 6745.00 US dollars/FEU. The SCFIS (Shanghai - Europe) on June 16th was 1697.63 points, and the SCFIS (Shanghai - US West) was 2908.68 points [8]. III. Container Ship Capacity Supply - In 2025, it is still a big year for container ship deliveries. As of June 15, 2025, 126 container ships have been delivered, with a total capacity of 1.004 million TEU. Among them, 37 ships with a capacity of 12,000 - 16,999 TEU were delivered, with a total of 557,200 TEU; 6 ships with a capacity of over 17,000 TEU were delivered, with a total of 142,400 TEU [8]. - The weekly average capacity of the Shanghai - US East and West routes in the remaining two weeks of June was 321,000 TEU, the monthly weekly average capacity in May was 243,400 TEU, and the weekly average capacity in July was 350,000 TEU. The capacity on the Shanghai - US East and West routes recovered rapidly in June [3]. - In June, the capacity pressure on the European routes decreased. The capacity of the Shanghai - European route in the last week of June was 250,200 TEU. The monthly weekly average capacity in July was 279,500 TEU, and the weekly average capacity in August was 271,300 TEU. There were a total of 8 blank sailings in July [4]. IV. Supply Chain - The delay of ships such as EVER MERCY, HMM HAMBURG, ONE INTELLIGENCE, and MSC BIANCA SILVIA affected the SCFIS on June 16th, and it was expected to continue to have an impact on June 23rd. The delay of ships will have a negative impact on the final valuation [5]. V. Demand and European Economy - The demand for the China - US routes increased rapidly due to the reduction of Sino - US tariffs, and the freight rates soared under the background of supply - demand mismatch. Currently, carriers are actively restoring capacity [3]. - The conflict between Israel and Iran may affect the passage of the Strait of Hormuz, but the direct impact on the global container shipping market is relatively small as the Middle East is not the core hub of global container trade [6].

Group 1: Report Summary - Report title: Shipping Derivatives Data Daily Report [4] - Date: June 19, 2025 [5] - Analyst: Lu Zhaoyi from the Energy and Chemical Research Center of Guomao Futures Research Institute [5] - Investment advisory number: Z0021177 [5] - Qualification number: F03101843 [5] - Data sources: Clarksons, Wind [5] Group 2: Shipping Index Data Freight Rate Index - **SCFI Composite Index**: Current value is 2088, previous value was 2240, a decline of 6.79% [5] - **CCFI Index**: Current value is 1243, previous value was 1155, an increase of 7.63% [5] - **SCFI - US West**: Current value is 4120, previous value was 5606, a decline of 26.51% [5] - **SCFIS - US West**: Current value is 2908, previous value was 2185, an increase of 33.08% [5] - **SCFI - US East**: Current value is 6745, previous value was 6939, a decline of 2.80% [5] - **SCFI - Northwest Europe**: Current value is 1844, previous value was 1667, an increase of 10.62% [5] - **SCFIS - Northwest Europe**: Current value is 1697, previous value was 1623, an increase of 4.57% [5] - **SCFI - Mediterranean**: Current value is 3190, previous value was 3302, a decline of 3.39% [5] Contract Data - **Contract Prices**: For contracts EC2506, EC2508, EC2510, EC2512, EC2602, EC2604, the current values are 1901.8, 2038.0, 1416.1, 1611.0, 1431.5, 1240.4 respectively, with corresponding changes of -1.68%, 0.39%, 0.10%, -0.01%, -1.52%, -2.61% compared to the previous values [5] - **Contract Holdings**: For contracts EC2506, EC2508, EC2410, EC2412, EC2602, EC2604, the current holdings are 4668, 44501, 28998, 6225, 2901, 3682 respectively, with corresponding changes of -536, 843, -240, -107, -230, 122 compared to the previous values [5] - **Monthly Spreads**: The current values of 10 - 12, 12 - 2, 12 - 4 spreads are 621.9, -194.9, 370.6 respectively, with corresponding changes of 6.6, 1.6, 33.1 compared to the previous values [5] Group 3: Market Analysis Spot Market - **Late - June Price Hike**: Leading airlines are considering price hikes in late June. For example, COSCO's offline quote is 4200, CMA's is 4250, ONE's is 3000, MSC plans to raise prices to 3900 (offline 3250), Maersk's opening price from Shanghai to London is 2800 (to Rotterdam is 2820), and HPL's is 3500 [10] - **Current Week's Freight Rates**: Spot freight rates have been rising this week. Quotes for European base ports in late June have reached $2,800 - 3,200 per 40 - foot container, and the upward trend is expected to continue until mid - to - late July. The increase in spot freight rates is expected to intensify logistics chain pressure in late June and drive up the booking rate of long - term contracts. Shipping companies are tightening the policy of releasing low - price contracts [10] - **Early - July Quotes**: MSK quotes 3400 for July, HPL quotes 4350, CMA quotes 4650, and ONE quotes 4000 [10] Futures Market - **Market Trend**: The market is in a volatile state [9] - **Influence of Geopolitical Conflicts**: Geopolitical conflicts, although having a limited direct impact on supply and demand, have triggered a chain reaction that has become an important driving force for the increase in container shipping market freight rates, such as the rise in marine fuel oil costs and insurance premiums. Airlines will take advantage of this to try to raise freight rates in July. The most important factor for the European route is that the full resumption time of alliance shipping companies has been further postponed, and the sentiment from August to December will be most positively affected [10] Group 4: Strategy - Hold the 12 - 4 calendar spread [11]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - Shipping companies are attempting to increase freight rates in the first half of July, and attention should be paid to the final implementation. The US - China trade route has seen a simultaneous increase in supply and demand, with freight rates in the East and West of the US reaching a high and potentially peaking. The European route has a downward pressure on capacity in June, and there is an expectation of price increases in August. Ship delays have a negative impact on the SCFIS, and the Israel - Iran conflict has a relatively small direct impact on container shipping [1][3][4][7]. - The recommended strategy is for the main contract to fluctuate, and for arbitrage, go long on the 08 contract and short on the 10 contract, and go long on the 12 contract and short on the 10 contract [9]. Summary by Directory Market Analysis - Online quotes show that multiple shipping companies have reported higher freight rates for July. For example, Maersk's Shanghai - Rotterdam price in week 26 was 1705/2870, and in the first week of July it was 2040/3400 [1]. - Geopolitically, US Vice - President Pence said Trump might take action against Iran's nuclear program, but no specific details were given [2]. - The US - China trade route has seen a rapid increase in demand due to the reduction of Sino - US tariffs. Carriers are actively restoring capacity, with the average weekly capacity in the remaining two weeks of June being 321,000 TEU, 243,400 TEU in May, and 350,000 TEU in July. However, freight rates in the East and West of the US may have peaked [3]. - In June, the capacity pressure on the European route decreased. The average weekly capacity in the remaining two weeks of June was about 236,500 TEU, and there were 5 blank sailings in July and 1 in August [4]. - Ship delays have dragged down the SCFIS on June 16th and are expected to continue to have an impact on June 23rd. The 06 contract's delivery settlement price is expected to be around 1940 points [5]. - The conflict between Israel and Iran may affect the passage of the Strait of Hormuz, which has a greater impact on oil transportation and a relatively small direct impact on container shipping [6]. - There is an expectation of price increases in August as it is a traditional peak season and the statistical capacity in July is relatively low. It is recommended to focus on the peak time of European route freight rates in 2025 and the subsequent downward slope of freight rates. Currently, shipping companies are trying to increase freight rates in July and August [7]. Futures Prices - As of June 18, 2025, the total open interest of all container shipping index European route futures contracts was 88,862 lots, and the single - day trading volume was 93,114 lots. The closing prices of different contracts varied, such as the EC2602 contract at 1430.20, the EC2604 contract at 1243.80, etc. [8] Spot Prices - On June 13, the SCFI (Shanghai - Europe route) price was 1844.00 US dollars/TEU, the SCFI (Shanghai - US West route) was 4120.00 US dollars/FEU, and the SCFI (Shanghai - US East) was 6745.00 US dollars/FEU. On June 16, the SCFIS (Shanghai - Europe) was 1697.63 points, and the SCFIS (Shanghai - US West) was 2908.68 points [8] Container Ship Capacity Supply - 2025 is still a major year for container ship deliveries. As of June 15, 2025, 126 container ships with a total capacity of 1.004 million TEU have been delivered. Among them, 37 ships in the 12,000 - 16,999 TEU range with a total capacity of 557,200 TEU and 6 ships above 17,000 TEU with a total capacity of 142,400 TEU have been delivered [8] Supply Chain - Ship delays have affected the SCFIS, and the conflict between Israel and Iran may have an impact on shipping routes, but the direct impact on container shipping is relatively small [5][6] Demand and European Economy - No specific analysis of demand and European economy is provided in the content other than the potential impact on shipping demand and freight rates due to geopolitical and trade factors [2][3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided documents 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The EC2508 contract shows strong current reality but weak future expectations. It is recommended to lightly test long positions around 1900 - 2050 points, and hold short positions for the 10 contract [17]. - The freight peak and inflection point of the European line are not clear. Subjectively, it is expected that the freight peak will appear in late July, with the market average price reaching $3500 - $4000 per FEU, and there is a price - drop expectation in August [17]. 3. Summaries Based on Related Contents 3.1 Futures Market - The main 2508 contract of the container shipping index (European line) closed at 2092 points, up 3.18%, and the second - main 2510 contract closed at 1427.9 points, up 1.20% [1][14]. 3.2 Spot Freight - In late June, Yangming lowered the freight of a single ship at the Shanghai port by $200 per FEU on June 30, while other sailings maintained a unified price of $2900 per FEU. MSC's online freight for the 26th - week sailing dropped from $3240 to $2640 per FEU. In July, Maersk's opening price for the 27th - week European base was $3400 per FEU, a $700 increase from the 26th - week opening price [15]. 3.3 Fundamental Situation - In June, the European line market had a relatively healthy fundamental situation. The shipping companies promoted freight increases of $750 and $450 per FEU in early and late June respectively, and the market freight rate center reached around $3000 per FEU at the end of June [15]. - In July, supply and demand may both increase, with the capacity increasing by 1.8% month - on - month, which is roughly the same as the historical increase in cargo volume in July [15][17]. 3.4 US Line Situation - In late June, the freight of the US line continued to decline, with a larger decline in the US - West line. The freight of the US - East line may fall back to around $5000 per FEU. The pressure to stop the decline in the US line freight is still high in early July [16]. 3.5 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of the container shipping index (European line) is 0, indicating a neutral trend [18].

集运指数（欧线）观点： 逢高布空2510；10-12反套逢高减仓 国泰君安期货研究所 首席分析师/能化联席行政负责人·黄柳楠 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0015892 郑玉洁 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021502 日期：2025年6月15日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 综述 01 核心观点：逢高布空2510；10-12反套逢高减仓 过去一周，集运指数高位震荡，主力2508合约震荡区间2000~2200点，次主力2510合约自1350点附近反弹至1450点。 基本面方面，26周（6月23日-6月29日）各家班轮公司定价风格有所差异和起伏，Gemini联盟26周由于是大船，舱位总量环比25周略增1万TEU，月底定价策 略偏保守；马士基26周欧基开舱2700美元/FEU，环比25周回落100美元/FEU，线下指数约舱位仍在收货；赫伯罗特线上电商出单航次特价进行收货。OA联盟26周CES、 AEU7停航，华东区域收货偏好，均价维持在3150美元/FEU附近；华南由于主要商品白电的出口未有起色，整体收货不如华东，25周长荣、 ...

发出 市场分析 线上报价方面。 Gemini Cooperation：马士基上海-鹿特丹26周价格1635/2730；HPL 6月下半月船期报价1835/2935，7月上半月船期 报价2635/4435。 FICC日报 | 2025-06-13 马士基6月最后一周价格开出，关注本周是否有7月份涨价函 MSC+Premier Alliance：MSC 上海-鹿特丹6月下半月船期报价1940/3240；ONE上海-鹿特丹6月下半月船期报价 2571/2937；HMM6月下半月上海-鹿特丹价格1717/3004。 Ocean Alliance：COSCO上海-鹿特丹 6月下半月船期报价2625/4225；CMA 6月上海-鹿特丹6月下半月船期报价 1861/3297，7月份船期报价2385/4345；EMC6月下半月船期报价2555/3610；OOCL 6月下半月报价1850/3100. 部分船司宣布6月份下半月涨价函，MSC 6月份下半月涨价函价格2340/3900（前期6月上半月涨价函价格 1920/3200）。 地缘端：美国总统特朗普：希望避免与伊朗发生冲突。伊朗将不得不进行更艰难的谈判。据AXIOS网站：美 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The shipping industry is experiencing price fluctuations and supply - demand imbalances. In June, the US - bound freight rates soared due to supply - demand mismatch, but the US - West rates may have peaked. The European - bound freight rates in June also showed an upward trend, with an expected price increase in July and August. The 06 contract of the container shipping index is supported by the expected delivery settlement price, and there is still a price increase expectation for the European - bound freight in August [3][5]. - The container shipping market is affected by multiple factors such as geopolitics, supply - demand relationship, and seasonal patterns. Geopolitical tensions may impact shipping routes, and the supply - demand relationship is adjusted by carriers' capacity deployment. The traditional peak season in August may lead to price increases [3][5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Analysis - **Online Quotes**: Different shipping alliances and companies have different price quotes for routes from Shanghai to Rotterdam, GDNASK, etc. For example, Gemini Cooperation's Maersk Shanghai - Rotterdam 25 - week price is 1700/2840, and HPL's 7 - month first - half shipping schedule quote is 2635/4435 [1]. - **Price Increases**: Some shipping companies announced price increases in the second half of June. MSC's second - half - of - June price increase letter shows a price of 2340/3900, up from 1920/3200 in the first half of June [2]. 3.2 Geopolitical and Supply - Demand Impact - **Geopolitical Factor**: Israel's defense minister warned the Yemeni Houthi rebels, which may lead to potential maritime and air blockades [3]. - **Supply - Demand Mismatch in US Routes**: In April and May, carriers withdrew capacity from the trans - Pacific east - bound routes. With the reduction of Sino - US tariffs and the end of tariff exemptions on Chinese goods on August 11, the demand on Sino - US routes increased rapidly, causing a sharp rise in freight rates. Currently, carriers are restoring capacity, and the capacity on Shanghai - US East and West routes recovered quickly in June. However, the US - West freight rates may have peaked [3]. 3.3 European Route Capacity - The capacity pressure on European routes decreased in June. The average weekly capacity of Shanghai - European routes in the remaining three weeks of June is about 280,600 TEU, and the average weekly capacity in July is 279,600 TEU. There are also some blank sailings in June and July [4]. 3.4 Contract and Price Expectations - The 06 contract should focus on the final implementation of the price increase letter. As the delivery deadline approaches, the 06 contract will gradually return to "real - world" trading. The average price in the second half of June is over 3000 US dollars/FEU, and the expected delivery settlement price of the 06 contract is about 1990 points, which supports the valuation of the 06 contract [5]. - There is an expectation of price increases in August as it is the traditional peak season, and the currently - counted capacity in July is relatively low. It is expected that shipping companies will announce price increases for July and August at the beginning of June and July. The 2025 European - bound freight rate peak time is unclear, and the 8 - month contract has a fierce game between expectation and reality. It is recommended to conduct arbitrage operations recently [5][6]. 3.5 Container Ship Capacity Supply - 2025 is still a big year for container ship deliveries. As of June 7, 2025, 120 container ships have been delivered, with a total capacity of 940,000 TEU. Among them, 36 ships with a capacity of 12,000 - 16,999 TEU have been delivered, with a total capacity of 544,000 TEU, and 4 ships with a capacity of over 17,000 TEU have been delivered, with a total capacity of 94,864 TEU [7]. 3.6 Strategy - **Unilateral**: The main contract fluctuates. - **Arbitrage**: Go long on the 08 contract and short on the 10 contract, and go long on the 06 contract and short on the 10 contract [7].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The shipping derivatives market shows a mixed performance with some indices rising and others falling. The spot market for shipping is showing signs of price increases in late June, and the futures market is experiencing upward fluctuations, especially in the near - month contracts. A 12 - 4 positive spread strategy is recommended to be held [2][8]. 3. Summary by Related Content 3.1 Shipping Rate Index - **Current and Previous Values and Changes**: The Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) has a current value of 2240, up 8.09% from the previous value of 2073. The China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) is currently 1155, a 3.34% increase from 1118. Other routes like SCFI - West US, SCFIS - West US, SCFI - East US, and SCFI - Northwest Europe also show significant increases, with the SCFIS - Northwest Europe having the highest increase of 29.62% from 1252 to 1623 [2]. 3.2 Forward Contracts (EC) - **Price and Position Changes**: For forward contracts such as EC2506, EC2508, etc., prices show mixed trends. For example, EC2506 has a current value of 1932.0, down 0.85% from 1948.6. In terms of positions, EC2508's position has increased by 1367 to 45494, while EC2506's position has decreased by 535 to 7268 [2]. 3.3 Market News - **Tariff Adjustments**: China will reduce tariffs on US goods from 125% to 10% for 90 days, and the US will cut tariffs on Chinese goods from 145% to 30% for 190 days [6]. - **Export Data**: In May, China's exports in US dollars increased by 4.8% year - on - year. Exports to the US were 28.819 billion US dollars, a 34.5% year - on - year decrease with a larger decline than in April. Exports to ASEAN and the EU increased by 14.8% and 12% respectively [6]. - **Sino - US Trade Talks**: The first meeting of the Sino - US economic and trade consultation mechanism was held in London on June 9. Both sides expressed that the talks were going well, and the international community hopes that the talks can resolve differences and strengthen cooperation [7]. 3.4 Market Analysis - **Spot Market**: In late June, shipping companies are eager to raise prices. The market average transaction price in the first week of June was 23508 US dollars/FEU, and the high - end (75th percentile) transaction price was 27000 US dollars/FEU. Although the Far - East to Nordic route is not directly affected by Sino - US tariffs, market sentiment can push up freight rates due to potential capacity shortages [8]. - **Futures Market**: The price increases in the spot market have stimulated the futures market to fluctuate upward. Near - month contracts (June and August) are more affected, with the August contract having greater elasticity, while more distant contracts follow fundamental logic [8][14].