行 业 及 产 业 公用事业 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 证 券 研 究 报 告 证券分析师 王璐 A0230516080007 wanglu@swsresearch.com 莫龙庭 A0230523080005 molt@swsresearch.com 傅浩玮 A0230522010001 fuhw@swsresearch.com 朱赫 A0230524070002 zhuhe@swsresearch.com 联系人 朱赫 (8621)23297818× zhuhe@swsresearch.com 2025 年 04 月 28 日 新能源装机首超煤电 欧美气价降至 近期新低 看好 ——申万公用环保周报(25/04/21~25/04/25) 本期投资提示： 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 - ⚫ 电力：新能源装机历史性超越火电，清洁能源占比稳步提升。1-3 月我国新增发电装机容量达 8572 万千瓦，其中水电、火电、核电、风电、光伏装机新增容量分别为 213、925、0、1462、 5971 万千瓦，新能源新增装机贡献率达 86.7%。截至 ...

Core Insights - The TERA-Award has achieved record participation with 785 submissions from 76 countries, highlighting a global push for climate tech solutions [1][2][3] - The competition focuses on six categories, with Renewable Energy being the most prominent, showcasing innovations in green fuels, hydrogen technology, smart energy systems, and sustainable infrastructure [2][3] - The TERA-Award serves as a global platform for energy innovation, with significant contributions from the US (12.5%), UK (6.2%), India (8.7%), China (18.1%), and Hong Kong (5.5%) [3] Industry Impact - The TERA-Award not only offers a US$1 million grand prize but also has a history of transforming innovative ideas into commercial products, as seen with previous participants like i2Cool and Luquos Energy [4][5] - The competition is backed by industry leaders such as Towngas, providing participants with access to resources that can be more valuable than monetary awards [7] - The judging phase will be led by Professor Cui Yi, focusing on technological innovation, commercial viability, scalability, and potential global impact [6] Future Outlook - Winners will be announced in July 2025, with expectations that the competition will continue to discover promising energy startups to combat the climate crisis [11]

Financial Performance - The group's revenue for 2024 was HKD 55,473 million, a decrease of 3% compared to HKD 56,971 million in 2023[20] - Shareholders' profit attributable for 2024 was HKD 5,712 million, down 6% from HKD 6,070 million in 2023[20] - The diluted earnings per share for 2024 was HKD 0.301, a decrease of 5% from HKD 0.316 in 2023[20] - The group's total revenue for the year was HKD 55.473 billion, with core business profit increasing by 5% to HKD 5.955 billion[35] - The group's attributable profit, before property revaluation, was HKD 5.668 billion, up 2%[35] - The group achieved a basic earnings per share of HKD 0.306, with a proposed final dividend of HKD 0.23 per share, totaling HKD 0.35 per share for the year[36] Customer Growth - The number of customers in Hong Kong as of December 31, 2024, was 2,037 thousand, an increase of 1% from 2,020 thousand in 2023[20] - The number of customers in mainland cities as of December 31, 2024, was 42,491 thousand, reflecting a growth of 6% from 40,186 thousand in 2023[20] - The group reported a total of 12,825 shareholders as of December 31, 2024, down 3% from 13,177 in 2023[20] Gas Sales and Operations - The group maintained a consistent gas sales volume in Hong Kong at 27,159 TJ, slightly up from 27,125 TJ in 2023[20] - In Hong Kong, gas sales volume remained stable with a slight increase of 0.1%, driven by more local restaurants switching to gas stoves[37] - Industrial gas sales volume increased by 2% overall, with hotel-related gas sales rising by 6.6%, while residential gas sales slightly decreased by 1.4%, resulting in an overall gas sales volume increase of 0.1%[88] - The group achieved a gas supply reliability rate of 99.992%, with 100% of customers notified three days in advance of any supply interruptions[97] Renewable Energy Initiatives - The group operates over 1,000 renewable energy projects across 24 provincial cities in mainland China, with distributed photovoltaic capacity reaching 2.3 GW and generating 1.83 billion kWh[41] - The renewable energy business achieved a net profit of HKD 479 million in 2024, representing a fivefold year-on-year growth, with over 1,000 renewable energy projects across 24 provinces[137] - The group has developed 128 zero-carbon smart parks across various regions, contributing to carbon neutrality goals and generating positive economic benefits[143] - The group is committed to gradually introducing zero-carbon fuels to replace fossil fuels, aiming for carbon neutrality in the long term[98] Strategic Development and Investments - The group aims to develop into a leading green smart energy enterprise, focusing on sustainable energy solutions[7] - The group plans to invest RMB 10 billion to develop a green methanol production facility with an annual capacity of 1 million tons, with construction expected to start in mid-2025[44] - The group has signed distribution cooperation agreements for green methanol with multiple companies, enhancing its supply chain capabilities[152][153] - The group has established a long-term agreement for the import of 1.5 million tons of liquefied natural gas annually through its Hong Kong international trade platform, enhancing resource security and flexibility[133] Technological Innovation - The company aims to strengthen its digital systems, including enhancing the capabilities of its AIoT platform to fully leverage data value[51] - The company will continue to embrace technological innovation, hosting the TERA-Award Smart Energy Innovation Competition to discover more zero-carbon projects and accelerate the commercialization of research outcomes[51] - The "Kwang Wah Chip" developed in collaboration with Sai Fang Technology has achieved a cumulative shipment of over 3.85 million units by the end of 2024, expanding its application from smart gas meters to various scenarios including smart kitchens and safety homes[174] Corporate Governance and Leadership - The company is committed to corporate governance and transparency, as evidenced by its diverse and experienced board composition[62] - The company has a diverse board with members holding various prestigious honors and extensive industry experience[63] - The board includes independent directors with significant contributions to the financial and educational sectors[64] - The company appointed Professor Huang as an independent non-executive director effective June 2024, bringing extensive experience from major financial institutions[67] Community Engagement and Social Responsibility - The group has provided over 1 million service hours and benefited over 8.5 million individuals through its "Gas Warmth Volunteer Team" since its establishment in 1999[194] - The group continues to support the government's "Co-Creating Bright 'Teen' Program" and has participated in the "Corporate Internship Program" for four consecutive years[195] - The "Gas Discount Program" has benefited over 40,000 households in Hong Kong, with a total amount exceeding HKD 36 million[178] Environmental and Sustainability Efforts - The company has achieved a 9% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions compared to the 2020 baseline[179] - The group actively promotes clean energy applications, including green methanol, hydrogen energy, and sustainable aviation fuel, in response to national carbon neutrality goals[187] - The group has successfully issued a green asset-backed securities plan worth 515 million RMB, receiving 2.5 times subscription, marking a significant milestone in the market[143] Future Outlook - The company anticipates stable growth in gas sales in Hong Kong, driven by the recovery of the tourism industry and the "High Talent Pass" program, which is expected to bring in tens of thousands of people[49] - The group plans to provide 500,000 tons of green methanol annually by 2028, with production capacity expected to increase to 150,000 tons by the end of 2025[151] - The new production facility in Johor, Malaysia is expected to commence operations in the second half of 2025, adding an annual capacity of 300,000 tons[150]

期货从业资格号：F3134307 能源化工研究团队 研究员：彭浩洲（尿素、工业硅） 研究员：李捷,CFA（原油燃料油） 研究员：冯泽仁（玻璃纯碱） 行业 甲醇日报 日期 2025 年 4 月 16 日 研究员：李金（甲醇） 021-60635730 lijin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3015157 研究员：任俊弛（PTA、MEG） 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 028-8663 0631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 研究员：彭婧霖（聚烯烃） 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 研究员：刘悠然（纸浆） 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60 ...

各位投资者大家晚上好我是袁李那么今天关于信奥股份私有化信奥能源的分析邀请到了燃气行业的分析师谷月老师来给大家讲一讲其实就是昨天晚上这个方案披露的时候很多的客户和投资人也跟我们说你们推荐的很好前期有反复的在推荐然后重组方案体现了价值重估看上去是一个意外之喜 但是我通过就是比如说星耀能源整个的发展历程还有整个星耀集团的发展以及就是今天市场的股价表现我们有几个思考第一就是首先从直观上面来看大家并没有在今天直接体现出比如说完整化价格从固到位那么从收盘前的这个价格60港币不到 股价今天是有所上涨的但没有涨到私有化方案中间给新欧能源的估值每股80港币其实没有涨到这是一个什么原因其实我认为本质上面就是因为市场的投资人对新欧能源和新欧股份的价值认同呢他就是有分歧的 这也是投资机会所在所以这是第一个关键点就是我们其实在前提是完全基于公开信息和对行业的判断提出了燃气行业在海气降本的大趋势上面会有一个降本放量的逻辑所以在年度策略里面重点推有海气弹性的标的 那麼中間就重點提到了消耗能源同時也認為呢消耗能源它在港股市場上面十倍不到的估值相較於字地類似的行業其他龍頭比如說華潤有明顯的一個折價那麼今天呢我認為這個股價表現所帶來的後續的進一 ...

香港中华煤气作为具国际可持续发展与碳认证(ISCC)绿色甲醇的领先供应商，公布将向新加坡船用燃料供应商Golden Island Pte Ltd(Golden Island)供应香港中华煤气的绿色甲醇，应用于其新加坡燃料加注业务。这标志着香港中华煤气拓展亚洲地区 绿色甲醇供应网络的重要一步。 根据有关供应协议，香港中华煤气将向Golden Island最近于新加坡注册的燃料供应船"Golden Antares号"，供应获ISCC EU及 ISCC PLUS双重国际认证的绿色甲醇。该船预计于4月下旬由中国船厂交付，在装载由香港中华煤气生产的绿色甲醇后，将 于2025年7月返回新加坡并展开绿色甲醇燃料加注试运行。 "Golden Antares号"配备质量流量计，可运载多达6,500吨甲醇。该艘货船将运载一批绿色甲醇到新加坡一个码头，之后按新 加坡最新颁布的《甲醇燃料加注技术参考标准129》(TR 129)进行加注。TR 129为如何安全、高效地使用甲醇这种船用替代 燃料，建立了完备的参考框架。 对于是次采购交易协议，香港中华煤气营运总裁—绿色燃料及化工岑文辉表示："我们高兴看到公司的绿色甲醇业务在亚洲 区市场取 ...

Group 1: U.S. CPI and Tariff Impact - The U.S. CPI growth rate in March was lower than expected, indicating a cooling trend, with the impact of tariffs on inflation not yet significant [1] - Despite a 90-day tariff suspension announced by Trump, various tariff measures remain in effect, potentially raising the PCE deflator by approximately 1.2% this year [1] - The market's pricing of "stagnation" is considered adequate, while the pricing of "inflation" may be insufficient, with the Federal Reserve likely to cut rates up to two times this year [1] Group 2: Price Data and Tariff Effects - In March 2025, the CPI remained weak, aligning with market expectations, while the PPI was slightly below expectations, driven by falling international oil prices and weak domestic construction activity [2] - The additional tariffs on China have reached a rate of 20%, negatively impacting domestic exports and PPI, estimated to contribute a 0.13 percentage point decline in PPI [2] - The anticipated impact of U.S. tariffs on PPI could range from a 1.8% to 3.2% decline, while China's counter-tariffs may raise CPI by about 0.1 percentage points [2] Group 3: Banking and Financial Products - In March 2025, the issuance of bank wealth management products increased, with a total of 2,964 products launched [4] - The average annualized yield for pure debt and non-pure debt fixed-income products rose to 2.35% and 2.10%, respectively, reflecting a recovery from the previous month [4] - The total scale of bank wealth management products reached 29.32 trillion yuan, showing a seasonal decline but supported by improved product yields [4] Group 4: Tariff Policies and Economic Outlook - Trump's tariff policies are compared to historical protectionist measures, with expectations for negotiations on reciprocal tariffs to conclude in mid-2025, although U.S.-China trade talks may take longer [5] - The implementation of "reciprocal tariffs" has triggered a global risk-averse capital flow, leading to a significant drop in risk assets and a rally in safe-haven assets [6] - The bond market is expected to perform well, with dividend-paying assets becoming a core safe haven amid tariff-related uncertainties [6] Group 5: Consumer Finance ABS - The growth in consumer loans has led to a significant increase in the issuance of consumer finance ABS in early 2025, with improved asset quality and attractive yield spreads compared to non-financial credit bonds [7] - The focus is on the investment opportunities in consumer finance ABS, particularly in bank-affiliated consumer finance subsidiaries and state-owned enterprise trust products [7]

Group 1: Real Estate - The new phase of real estate has begun, but a policy push is needed to stabilize housing prices, with a critical window expected around April-May 2025 for potential policy measures [1] - Anticipated policies include lowering housing financing costs, meeting improvement housing demands, increasing land reserves, and enhancing liquidity support for real estate companies [1] - Long-term bottoming of housing prices is expected, favoring developers and service platforms that excel in construction, asset management, and service provision [1] Group 2: Consumer Sector - 2025 may mark a turning point as internal demand becomes a focus due to ongoing external pressures, with fiscal policies aimed at boosting consumption becoming clearer [2] - Three main trends in the consumer sector are identified: rational consumption, emotional spending for satisfaction, and new consumption opportunities driven by technological advancements [2] - The consumer sector is expected to stabilize, with Q2 2025 likely being a bottoming point for many industries, suggesting a shift towards a balanced investment strategy [2] Group 3: Financial Products - New regulations for bank distribution of financial products are set to enhance professionalism and protect investor interests, potentially leading to a reshuffling in the industry [5] - Stricter standards for private fund access will benefit top-tier managers, while public fund managers face challenges due to increased competition [5] Group 4: Infrastructure and Urban Renewal - The central government is expected to support urban renewal initiatives, which will stimulate investment and consumption, creating new opportunities for sustainable growth [10] - The focus on urban renewal is anticipated to generate physical work and expand spending in leisure and entertainment, contributing to stable internal demand [10] Group 5: Environmental and Energy Sector - The development of virtual power plants is expected to accelerate, with significant capacity growth projected by 2027 and 2030, benefiting from the rise of renewable energy [11] - The industry is likely to overcome current barriers in technology standards and market mechanisms, paving the way for rapid growth [11] Group 6: Manufacturing Sector - The manufacturing sector faces challenges from U.S. tariffs but has significant potential for growth in non-U.S. export markets and domestic demand [14] - Companies with strong competitive advantages and those benefiting from internal circulation are recommended for investment [14] Group 7: Corporate Behavior - A surge in share buybacks and increases in corporate holdings is observed, with total planned amounts exceeding 73 billion [12] - The support from state-owned enterprises for buybacks indicates a positive outlook for market management and potential future increases in corporate actions [12]

Core Viewpoint - The domestic green methanol refueling business has made significant progress, with Hong Kong and China Gas Company successfully completing a large-scale refueling operation for the Korean vessel "HMM Green" using green methanol produced in Inner Mongolia, marking a milestone in the green energy sector in Asia [1][2]. Group 1: Production and Certification - The green methanol was produced by the company in its facility located in Ordos, Inner Mongolia, utilizing biomass resources and urban waste, and has achieved ISCC-EU certification, demonstrating a 70% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions over its lifecycle [1][3]. - The company has been awarded the EU ISCC EU and ISCC PLUS international certifications for three consecutive years since 2022, making it the first enterprise in mainland China to achieve these certifications for large-scale green methanol production [3]. Group 2: Industry Context and Future Outlook - In line with global carbon neutrality goals, the latest strategy for reducing greenhouse gas emissions from shipping aims for a 20% reduction by 2030 and a 70% reduction by 2040 compared to 2008 levels, positioning green methanol as a preferred option for the shipping industry to lower emissions [3]. - The company plans to continue collaborating with various partners to advance the research and production of green methanol, contributing to the popularization of green energy and the sustainable development of the global shipping industry, with a projected production capacity of 150,000 tons by 2025 [3].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained as "Buy" with a target price of HKD 7.04 [7][24]. Core Insights - The company reported a core profit growth of 5% for 2024, driven by structural upgrades in green energy, despite a revenue decline of 3% to HKD 55.5 billion [1][5]. - The gas sales volume in Hong Kong remained stable, with a slight increase of 0.1% year-on-year, while the company expects to benefit from a favorable pricing mechanism [2][3]. - The renewable energy and green energy sectors show significant growth potential, with net profit from renewable energy reaching HKD 322 million, a 544% increase year-on-year [4][5]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For 2024, the company reported revenues of HKD 55.5 billion, a decrease of 3% year-on-year, and a core profit of HKD 5.95 billion, an increase of 5% year-on-year [1][6]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders was HKD 5.71 billion, down 6% year-on-year [1][6]. Gas Sales - The gas sales volume in Hong Kong was 27,159 TJ, with residential gas volume decreasing by 1.4% and commercial/industrial gas volume increasing by 1.4% and 5.2% respectively [2][3]. - The company anticipates stable gas sales in Hong Kong for 2025, maintaining an EBITDA margin of approximately 52% [2][3]. Renewable Energy Growth - The renewable energy segment is expected to grow rapidly, with the company shifting towards a light-asset strategy, projecting significant revenue growth from carbon services and asset management [4][5]. - The green energy business, including green methanol and sustainable aviation fuel (SAF), is strengthening its capacity to capture future demand [4][5]. Profit Forecast Adjustments - The profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been adjusted downwards by 6% and 9% respectively, with expected net profits of HKD 6.24 billion and HKD 6.56 billion [5][24]. - The target price has been revised down to HKD 7.04 from HKD 7.63, reflecting a price-to-book ratio of 2.3x for 2025 [5][24].