Core Insights - AnaptysBio reported positive Phase 2b data for rosnilimab in rheumatoid arthritis, demonstrating a favorable safety profile and JAK-like efficacy, with durable responses observed for at least 12-14 weeks off-drug [2][5] - The company completed enrollment for a Phase 2 trial of rosnilimab in ulcerative colitis, with top-line data expected in Q4 2025 [4][9] - AnaptysBio plans to initiate a Phase 1b trial for ANB033, a CD122 antagonist targeting celiac disease, by Q4 2025 [2][4] Financial Updates - As of June 30, 2025, AnaptysBio reported cash and investments totaling $293.7 million, down from $420.8 million at the end of 2024, primarily due to operating activities and share repurchases [13] - Collaboration revenue for Q2 2025 was $22.3 million, compared to $11.0 million in Q2 2024, driven by increased royalties from Jemperli [13] - The net loss for Q2 2025 was $38.6 million, an improvement from a net loss of $46.7 million in Q2 2024, with a net loss per share of $1.34 compared to $1.71 in the prior year [13][19] Pipeline Developments - Rosnilimab's Phase 2b trial for rheumatoid arthritis involved 424 patients and showed a best-in-disease profile with monthly dosing [5] - The company is assessing different dosing levels for rosnilimab in the ulcerative colitis trial, with a primary endpoint focused on the modified Mayo score [9] - Ongoing Phase 1 trials for ANB033 and ANB101 are in healthy volunteers, with plans for further updates on ANB033 at a dedicated R&D event later this year [4][6] Collaboration and Milestones - AnaptysBio anticipates a $75 million milestone payment from GSK in 2025 once Jemperli achieves $1 billion in worldwide net sales [4][10] - GSK reported strong sales performance for Jemperli, with Q2 2025 sales of $262 million, reflecting over 19% quarter-over-quarter growth [10]

Core Viewpoint - The RSV mRNA vaccine developed by Watson Bio, in collaboration with Fudan University and Shanghai Bluebird Bio, has received clinical trial application acceptance from the National Medical Products Administration, marking a significant step in a market that currently lacks approved domestic vaccines [2][4]. Industry Overview - RSV is a common pathogen causing acute lower respiratory infections in infants and the elderly, leading to severe diseases such as pneumonia and bronchitis. Despite its prevalence, vaccine development has faced numerous challenges, leaving a gap in the Chinese market [4][5]. - Globally, only three RSV vaccines have been approved: GSK's Arexvy, Pfizer's Abrysvo, and Moderna's mRESVIA, with a projected global sales of approximately $4 billion for the 2023-2024 period [4][5]. - The global RSV vaccine market is expected to grow from $1.8 billion in 2020 to $12.8 billion by 2030, with a compound annual growth rate exceeding 20% [5]. Company Developments - Watson Bio's RSV mRNA vaccine represents the second major focus in its mRNA pipeline, following its previous efforts in the COVID-19 vaccine space [3][11]. - The collaboration with Bluebird Bio and Fudan University leverages established relationships and expertise in mRNA technology, with Fudan University holding several patents in mRNA delivery systems [5][10]. - Watson Bio has built a modular mRNA production line capable of producing 200 million doses annually, aligning its production strategy with international leaders like Moderna [10]. Competitive Landscape - The domestic RSV vaccine market is highly competitive, with over 20 companies, including Aidi Weixin, Maikang Bio, and Afana Bio, already making significant clinical progress ahead of Watson Bio [4][6]. - Aidi Weixin's ADV110 and Maikang Bio's MKK900 are among the leading candidates, with clinical trials advancing rapidly [6]. - Watson Bio's ability to catch up in this competitive landscape will depend on efficient clinical progression, optimization of production processes, and effective regulatory communication [6][8].

Summary of Hengrui Medicine Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Hengrui Medicine (600276.SS) - **Industry**: Pharmaceutical, specifically focusing on innovative drug development and licensing Key Points Licensing Agreement with GSK - Hengrui has licensed out the ex-China rights of HRS-9821, a PDE3/4 inhibitor currently in phase 1 clinical trials, to GSK - The agreement includes options for the ex-China rights of up to 11 early-stage assets targeting oncology, respiratory, autoimmune, and inflammation diseases - The upfront payment for this deal is US$500 million, with potential milestone payments reaching US$12 billion based on development progress, registration, and commercialization, plus tiered royalties based on net sales [1][10] Market Potential for PDE3/4 Inhibitors - Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD) affects approximately 23 million patients in the US, EU5, and Japan, with around 1.7 million patients uncontrolled on standard therapies - Currently, only three advanced treatments for COPD are approved globally, highlighting a significant unmet clinical need - Hengrui's HRS-9821 could offer advantages over existing treatments, such as a more convenient dosage form, pending further clinical data [2][9] Sales Projections - Risk-adjusted sales estimates for HRS-9821 are projected at RMB 750 million for the China market and RMB 3.2 billion for overseas markets by 2035, assuming a launch in 2030/2031 [3][12] Earnings Revision and Valuation - Earnings estimates have been revised upwards by 29% for 2025E, 0.7% for 2026E, and 0.2% for 2027E due to the licensing agreement - The 12-month price target has been adjusted to RMB 70.26 from RMB 61.74 based on these revisions and market conditions [7][12] Competitive Landscape - The PDE3/4 inhibitor market is competitive, with ensifentrine being a notable product that has achieved global sales of US$114 million in its first eight months of commercialization in 2024 - Hengrui's HRS-9821 is positioned to compete effectively, especially given its potential for broader patient coverage compared to biologic drugs [2][9] Risks and Considerations - Key risks include slower ramp-up of innovative drugs post-NRDL listing, potential failures in late-stage R&D programs, and higher-than-expected R&D expenses for global expansion - There is also a risk of greater-than-expected price cuts for generics and innovative drugs, as well as below-expected progress in licensing and global expansion [12][13] Financial Metrics - Market capitalization is approximately RMB 407 billion (US$56.7 billion) - Projected revenue growth from RMB 27.98 billion in 2024 to RMB 41.86 billion by 2027 [13] Additional Insights - The licensing deal with GSK reflects Hengrui's strategic focus on expanding its global footprint and leveraging partnerships to enhance its pipeline - The company is actively involved in the development of multiple assets, indicating a robust pipeline that could drive future growth [10][12]

Summary of Hengrui - A Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Hengrui Pharmaceuticals - **Industry**: Healthcare, specifically pharmaceuticals Key Points Partnership with GSK - Hengrui and GSK entered an agreement granting GSK exclusive global rights (excluding Greater China) to Hengrui's PDE3/4 inhibitor HRS-9821, currently in Phase 1 trials [2][7] - The deal includes collaborative development of up to 11 preclinical projects, with Hengrui leading R&D until Phase 1 completion [2][7] - GSK will pay Hengrui an upfront fee of **US$500 million** and potential milestone payments totaling **US$12 billion** if GSK exercises its option on the projects [2][7] Market Reaction - Following the announcement, Hengrui's H/A shares increased by **17%** and **10%**, outperforming the HSI/SHSZ300 index which saw a **0-1%** increase [2][7] - The positive market reaction indicates growing recognition of Hengrui's early pipeline assets by multinational corporations [2][7] Competitive Landscape - The deal is compared to Merck's recent acquisition of Verona, which also involved a PDE3/4 inhibitor, highlighting a trend of large pharma companies recognizing the value of Hengrui's assets [2][15] Financial Performance and Projections - Hengrui's revenue is projected to grow from **Rmb 27,985 million** in FY24 to **Rmb 35,399 million** in FY26, reflecting a year-over-year growth of **22.6%** in FY24 and **12.4%** in FY25 [9][22] - Adjusted EBITDA is expected to increase from **Rmb 7,468 million** in FY24 to **Rmb 10,393 million** in FY26, with an EBITDA margin improving from **26.7%** to **29.4%** [9][22] Valuation and Investment Thesis - Current price target for Hengrui is set at **Rmb 52.00** based on a DCF valuation, with a terminal growth rate of **4%** and a WACC of **9.3%** [10][11] - Despite strong R&D capabilities and potential for sustained growth, Hengrui's current valuation is higher than many peers, which may limit future upside [10][17] Risks - Key downside risks include potential rejection of PD-1 marketing application by the FDA and underperformance of clinical data from its ADC program [20] - Upside risks involve stronger-than-expected sales growth and earnings [20] Performance Metrics - Hengrui's market cap is approximately **$55.2 billion** with a share price of **Rmb 62.04** as of July 28, 2025 [9][10] - The company has a free float of **50.9%** and a 52-week share price range of **Rmb 62.04 - 39.62** [9][10] Conclusion - Hengrui's strategic partnership with GSK enhances its market position and validates its early-stage assets, while financial projections indicate robust growth potential. However, the company's high valuation relative to peers poses a risk to future upside, warranting a neutral rating from analysts.

Group 1 - Heng Rui Medicine (01276) experienced a rebound of over 3% in early trading, with a current stock price of 77.35 HKD and a trading volume of 254 million HKD [1] - Heng Rui has reached a cooperation agreement with GSK regarding HRS-9821 and up to 11 other projects, granting GSK exclusive licensing rights for overseas rights [1] - GSK will pay Heng Rui 500 million USD as part of the agreement, indicating significant financial backing for the projects involved [1] Group 2 - The PDE3/4 inhibitor, HRS-9821, is currently in clinical development and is considered a high-potential target for treating chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) [1] - According to Guosheng Securities, the potential of PDE3/4 inhibitors is substantial, and the business development (BD) transaction is expected to enhance Heng Rui's performance [1]

Core Viewpoint - Heng Rui Medicine (600276) has seen a rebound of over 3%, currently trading at 77.5 HKD with a transaction volume of 235 million HKD, following a collaboration agreement with GSK on HRS-9821 and up to 11 projects [1] Group 1: Collaboration Agreement - Heng Rui Medicine has granted GSK exclusive licensing rights for HRS-9821 and up to 11 projects, with GSK paying an upfront fee of 500 million USD [1] - If all projects are exercised and milestones achieved, Heng Rui could receive potential milestone payments totaling approximately 12 billion USD, along with tiered sales royalties [1] Group 2: Market Potential - According to Guosheng Securities, the PDE3/4 inhibitor has significant potential, and the business development transaction is expected to enhance Heng Rui's performance [1] - HRS-9821 is currently in clinical development as a high-potential target for treating Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD), showing enhanced bronchodilation and anti-inflammatory effects in early clinical and preclinical studies [1] - The development potential of dry powder inhaler (DPI) formulations for this class of drugs is highlighted [1] Group 3: Industry Context - The substantial investment by multinational pharmaceutical companies, such as Merck's 10 billion USD acquisition of Verona focused on PDE3/4 projects, underscores the potential value of HRS-9821 [1]

晨会纪要（2025/08/04） 编辑人 崔健 022-28451618 SAC NO：S1150511010016 cuijian@bhzq.com 渤海证券研究所晨会纪要（2025.08.04） 宏观及策略研究 维稳当下，谋篇布局——2025 年 8 月宏观经济月报 固定收益研究 把握阶段性修复行情——利率债 8 月投资策略展望 行业研究 恒瑞医药与 GSK 达成大额合作，关注创新产业链——医药生物行业周报 证 券 研 究 报 告 晨 会 纪 要 请务必阅读正文之后的声明 渤海证券股份有限公司具备证券投资咨询业务资格 1 of 6 晨会纪要（2025/08/04） 宏观及策略研究 维稳当下，谋篇布局——2025 年 8 月宏观经济月报 周喜（证券分析师，SAC NO：S1150511010017） 宋亦威（证券分析师，SAC NO：S1150514080001） 严佩佩（证券分析师，SAC NO：S1150520110001） 靳沛芃（研究助理，SAC NO：S1150124030005） 1、海外经济及政策环境 美国方面，虽然二季度消费和投资分项偏弱，但总体经济仍在进口拖累减弱帮助下表现出韧性，通胀数据 ...

Core Viewpoint - Watson Bio, in collaboration with Fudan University and Shanghai Blue Magpie Biopharmaceutical Co., Ltd., has applied for clinical trials for its respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) mRNA vaccine, receiving acceptance notification from the National Medical Products Administration [1] Company Summary - The vaccine is developed based on an independently established mRNA vaccine technology platform, aimed at stimulating immune response against RSV to prevent lower respiratory tract diseases caused by RSV infection [1] - Watson Bio has partnered with Blue Magpie Biopharmaceutical and Fudan University for the development of this vaccine [1] Industry Summary - Currently, three RSV vaccines have been approved and launched internationally: GSK's Arexvy (recombinant protein vaccine), Pfizer's Abrysvo (recombinant protein vaccine), and Moderna's mRESVIA (mRNA1345, mRNA vaccine) [1] - There are no approved RSV vaccines in the domestic market, indicating a potential opportunity for Watson Bio [1] - The global sales for RSV vaccines are projected to be approximately $4 billion for the 2023-2024 fiscal year [1]

Core Viewpoint - The behavior of leading funds in the market is determined by the positioning of the market, which in turn influences the structure and pattern of industries that experience growth. Historically, liquidity-driven markets tend to concentrate on strong sectors rather than rotating between high and low performers [1][2]. Group 1: Market Behavior and Trends - In liquidity-driven markets, once a sector gains consensus, its strong performance tends to persist until the end of the market cycle [2]. - Strong sectors often see their peak performance occur later than mid-tier sectors, indicating a lack of significant high-low rotation [2]. - The excess returns of leading sectors compared to mid-tier and low-tier sectors tend to expand throughout the market cycle [2]. Group 2: Investment Focus and Sector Performance - Current focus remains on sectors such as AI, innovative pharmaceuticals, resources, and the STAR Market [1][6]. - In July, sectors with strong industrial trends, such as innovative pharmaceuticals and rare metals, outperformed, with ETFs recording significant gains: Communication ETF at 20.4%, Innovative Pharmaceutical ETF at 16.9%, and Rare Metals ETF at 15.4% [5]. - Conversely, sectors relying on short-term speculative themes, like coal, saw significant pullbacks, indicating a preference for strong trend sectors over low-positioned ones [5]. Group 3: Liquidity and Market Dynamics - Recent marginal slowdown in incremental liquidity suggests that the market needs to cool down for sustainable growth [6]. - Public mutual funds experienced a net outflow of approximately 25.1 billion in July, following a rare net inflow in June, indicating a shift in investor sentiment [7]. - Despite some outflows, industry and thematic ETFs saw net inflows, driven primarily by individual investors, with significant inflows into cyclical, manufacturing, and technology ETFs [7]. Group 4: Sector-Specific Insights - AI sector faces uncertainty regarding the transition from North American supply chains to domestic ones, with current trends reflecting more on industrial trends than pure valuation [8]. - The innovative pharmaceuticals sector is supported by potential business development expectations, with large pharmaceutical companies still having room for valuation growth compared to previous years [9]. - Resource stocks are currently well-matched in terms of fundamentals and valuations, with price increases reflecting earnings elasticity due to supply constraints and slow demand growth [10]. Group 5: Long-term Investment Considerations - The "15th Five-Year Plan" guidance is anticipated to provide clearer, quantifiable constraints on industry capacity expansion, which could stabilize long-term supply-demand relationships [4]. - The semiconductor sector, particularly the STAR Market, is expected to see a resurgence, especially if optimistic guidance is provided by key players like SMIC [10].

Core Viewpoint - Watson Bio has applied for clinical trials of its respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) mRNA vaccine, which has been accepted by the National Medical Products Administration of China [1] Group 1: Company Developments - The vaccine is a joint development by Watson Bio, Fudan University, Shanghai Bluebird Biopharmaceuticals, and its subsidiaries [1] - The application for clinical trials has received an acceptance notice, indicating progress in the vaccine's development [1] Group 2: Market Context - Currently, three RSV vaccines have been approved and launched internationally: GSK's Arexvy, Pfizer's Abrysvo, and Moderna's mRESVIA [1] - There are no approved RSV vaccines in the domestic market, highlighting a potential opportunity for Watson Bio [1] - The global sales of RSV vaccines are projected to be approximately $4 billion for the 2023-2024 fiscal year [1] Group 3: Regulatory Environment - Following the acceptance of the clinical trial application, the vaccine will undergo technical review by the National Medical Products Administration, with approval required before clinical trials can commence [1] - The review and approval process carries a degree of uncertainty [1]