Report Summary 1. Core View - The market of shipping derivatives shows an overall upward trend, but with certain fluctuations. After the Sino - US tariff negotiation results exceeded expectations, the contracts initially rose rapidly and then entered a phase of fundamental game and oscillation. As the pricing for June becomes clearer, the market is shifting towards trading the more certain 06 contract, and the spread between the 6 - 8 contracts is narrowing. It is recommended to gradually take profit on long positions and arbitrage [9]. 2. Key Data 2.1 Freight Rate Index | Index | Present Value | Previous Value | Change Rate | | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) | 1586 | 1479 | 7.21% | | China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) | 1107 | 1105 | 0.23% | | SCFI - US West | 3275 | 3091 | 5.95% | | SCFIS - US West | 1720 | 1446 | 18.92% | | SCFI - US East | 4284 | 4069 | 5.28% | | SCFI - Northwest Europe | 1317 | 1154 | 14.12% | | SCFIS - Northwest Europe | 1247 | 1265 | - 1.44% | | SCFI - Mediterranean | 2328 | 2082 | 11.82% | [5] 2.2 Forward Freight Agreement (FFA) Contracts | Contract | Present Value | Previous Value | Change Rate | | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | EC2506 | 1808.0 | 1773.0 | 1.97% | | EC2508 | 2131.0 | 1949.5 | 9.31% | | EC2510 | 1392.4 | 1349.4 | 3.19% | | EC2512 | 1570.3 | 1526.0 | 2.90% | | EC2602 | 1400.0 | 1372.3 | 2.02% | | EC2604 | 1239.0 | 1222.8 | 1.32% | [5] 2.3 Contract Positions | Position | Present Value | Previous Value | Change Value | | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | EC2506 Position | 12716 | 15946 | - 3230 | | EC2508 Position | 46578 | 43765 | 2813 | | EC2510 Position | 24224 | 23149 | 1075 | | EC2512 Position | 4409 | 4392 | 17 | | EC2602 Position | 2743 | 2824 | - 81 | | EC2604 Position | 3199 | 3070 | 129 | [5] 2.4 Month - to - Month Spread | Spread | Present Value | Previous Value | Change Value | | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | 10 - 12 | 738.6 | 600.1 | 138.5 | | 12 - 2 | - 177.9 | - 176.6 | - 1.3 | | 12 - 4 | 331.3 | 303.2 | 28.1 | [5] 3. Market News - China will reduce tariffs on US goods from 125% to 10% for 90 days, and the US will reduce tariffs on Chinese goods from 145% to 30% for 90 days [6]. - US President Trump said that the US may unilaterally set new tariff rates for many trading partners in the next two to three weeks [7]. - A Palestinian official said Hamas agreed to the Gaza cease - fire proposal put forward by US Middle East Envoy Witkoff, but an Israeli official refuted it [8]. - On May 28, the US International Trade Court blocked the tariff policy announced by President Trump on April 2, ruling that Trump overstepped his authority. However, the ruling does not affect tariffs on cars, auto parts, steel or aluminum [8]. - Trump threatened to impose a 50% tariff on the EU starting from June 1 [8]. 4. Spot Market - The average price of May spot goods was still between 1700 - 1800 $/FEU, with a slight decline compared to the first half of May. Affected by the Sino - US tariff negotiation news and the recovery of demand on the US route, airlines collectively tried to raise the freight rate on the European route in June to 3200 - 3300 $/FEU. Some airlines adjusted their prices, and PI added an empty flight at the end of June [9]. 5. Futures Market - After the Sino - US negotiation results exceeded expectations, the contracts rose rapidly to fill the "Trump gap" and then entered an oscillation phase. As the pricing for June becomes clearer, the market is trading the more certain 06 contract, and the spread between the 6 - 8 contracts is narrowing [9]. 6. Strategy - Long positions and arbitrage can gradually take profit [10]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The market still anticipates price increases in the second half of June. The 06 contract should focus on the final implementation of price increases, while the 08 contract faces a game of continued price - increase expectations. As the delivery deadline approaches, the 06 contract will gradually shift to "reality" - based trading. The 8 - month contract, being in the traditional peak season with relatively less capacity in July, still has price - increase expectations. It is recommended to conduct arbitrage operations for the 08 contract. The main contract is expected to fluctuate, and the recommended arbitrage strategy is to go long on the 08 contract and short on the 10 contract [1][3][5]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Futures Prices - As of May 29, 2025, the total open interest of all container shipping index European line futures contracts was 93,146 lots, and the single - day trading volume was 102,136 lots. The closing prices of EC2602, EC2604, EC2506, EC2508, EC2510, and EC2512 contracts were 1372.30, 1222.80, 1773.00, 1949.50, 1349.40, and 1526.00 respectively [4]. 3.2 Spot Prices - On May 23, the SCFI (Shanghai - Europe route) price was 1317.00 US dollars/TEU, the SCFI (Shanghai - US West route) price was 3275.00 US dollars/FEU, and the SCFI (Shanghai - US East) price was 4284.00 US dollars/FEU. On May 26, the SCFIS (Shanghai - Europe) was 1247.05 points, and the SCFIS (Shanghai - US West) was 1719.79 points [4][5]. 3.3 Container Ship Capacity Supply - In 2025, it is still a big year for container ship deliveries. As of May 25, 2025, 109 container ships had been delivered, with a total delivery capacity of 873,100 TEU. Among them, 34 ships with a capacity of 12,000 - 16,999 TEU were delivered, with a total capacity of 513,200 TEU; 4 ships with a capacity of over 17,000 TEU were delivered, with a total capacity of 94,864 TEU [5]. - In June, the shipping capacity on the European route remained relatively high, and the shipping capacity on the Shanghai - US East and West routes increased significantly compared to the previous month. The monthly average weekly capacity on the Shanghai - European route in June was about 280,000 TEU, and the capacity in weeks 23/24/25/26/27 was 292,400/267,500/301,800/275,000 TEU, an increase of over 20% compared to the same period last year. The monthly average weekly capacity in July was 261,000 TEU. The weekly average capacity on the Shanghai - US East and West routes in June was 334,000 TEU, 243,400 TEU in May, and 305,000 TEU in July [2]. 3.4 Supply Chain - No specific analysis content provided in the given text, only figure references such as global container ship capacity congestion ratio, global container ship congestion capacity, ship speeds of different tonnages, and the number of container ships passing through major canals [49][53][58]. 3.5 Demand and European Economy - No specific analysis content provided in the given text, only figure references such as port container throughput, EU 27 industrial production index, EU 27 imports from China, euro - area consumer confidence index, and China's export volume to the EU [69][70][77].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The EC market is experiencing a volatile decline. Spot prices in May have slightly decreased, while airlines are attempting to raise June freight rates on European routes. The market is influenced by Sino - US tariff negotiations and demand recovery on US routes. The 06 - 08 contract spread is narrowing, and the strategy is to gradually take profits on long positions and arbitrage [9][10]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Shipping Derivatives Data - **Container Freight Index**: The Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) has a current value of 1586, up 7.21% from the previous value. The China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) is at 1107, up 0.23%. Different routes show various changes, such as SCFI - US West rising 5.95% and SCFIS - Northwest Europe falling 1.44% [5]. - **EC Contracts**: Most EC contracts show a decline, e.g., EC2506 has a current value of 1782.0, down 3.23%. The open interest of some contracts has decreased, like EC2506 open interest dropping by 1956. The monthly spreads also show minor changes [5]. Market News - **Tariff News**: China will reduce tariffs on US goods from 125% to 10% for 90 days, and the US will cut tariffs on Chinese goods from 145% to 30% for 90 days. Trump may set new tariff rates for many trading partners in 2 - 3 weeks, and the US threatens to impose 50% tariffs on the EU starting June 1st [6][7][8]. - **Other News**: The fourth - round Japan - US tariff negotiation is scheduled for the 30th. A Palestinian official says Hamas agrees to a Gaza cease - fire proposal, but Israel refutes it [7][8]. EC Market Analysis - **Spot Market**: The average price of May spot is between 1700 - 1800$/FEU, with a slight decline. Airlines try to raise June freight rates on European routes to 3200 - 3300$/FEU [9]. - **Futures Market**: After the Sino - US negotiation results, the contracts first rose and then entered a volatile phase. The 06 - 08 contract spread is narrowing as the market focuses more on the 06 contract [9]. Strategy - The strategy is to gradually take profits on long positions and arbitrage [10].

Group 1: Report Title and General Information - The report is titled "Shipping Derivatives Data Daily Report" [4] - It is from the Energy and Chemical Research Center of Guomao Futures Research Institute, written by Lu Zhaoyi, with an investment consulting number of Z0021177 and a qualification number of F03101843, dated May 27, 2025 [5] - The data sources are Clarksons and Wind [5] Group 2: Shipping Freight Index Spot Freight Index - The current value of the Shanghai Export Container Freight Composite Index (SCFI) is 1586, with a previous value of 1479 and a rise of 7.21% [5] - The current value of the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) is 1107, with a previous value of 1105 and a rise of 0.23% [5] - For SCFI sub - routes: SCFI - US West is 3275 (up 5.95%), SCFIS - US West is 1720 (up 18.92%), SCFI - US East is 4284 (up 5.28%), SCFI - Northwest Europe is 1317 (up 14.12%), SCFIS - Northwest Europe is 1247 (down 1.44%), and SCFI - Mediterranean is 2328 (up 11.82%) [5] EC Futures Price Index - Futures contracts EC2506, EC2508, EC2510, EC2512, EC2602, and EC2604 show a general downward trend. For example, EC2506 is at 1841.5 (down 0.51%), and EC2508 is at 2085.0 (down 6.29%) [5] Futures Contract Positions - Positions of EC2506, EC2508, EC2410, EC2412, EC2602, and EC2604 have different changes. For example, EC2506 position decreased by 547, and EC2410 position increased by 1089 [5] Futures Contract Month - to - Month Spreads - The month - to - month spreads 10 - 12, 12 - 2, and 12 - 4 all decreased. For example, the 10 - 12 spread decreased by 69.7 [5] Group 3: Market News - China will reduce tariffs on US goods from 125% to 10% for 90 days, and the US will reduce tariffs on Chinese goods from 145% to 30% for 90 days [6] - US President Trump said that the US may unilaterally set new tariff rates for many trading partners in the next two to three weeks [7] - Hamas and Israel held a new round of Gaza cease - fire negotiations in Doha [8] - Brussels may impose a 2 - euro handling fee on billions of small packages mainly imported from China. Trump threatened to impose a 50% tariff on the EU starting from June 1st [9] Group 4: EC Market Analysis - The EC market shows a downward trend with a pattern of near - term strength and long - term weakness [10] - In the spot market, the average price of May spot is still between 1700 - 1800 $/FEU, with a slight decline compared to early May. Affected by the Sino - US tariff negotiation news and the recovery of US - bound demand, airlines are trying to raise the June freight rate on the European route to 3200 - 3300 $/FEU [11] - In the futures market, after the Sino - US negotiation results exceeded expectations last week, the contracts first rose rapidly and then returned to fundamental analysis. As the June pricing becomes clearer, the market focuses more on the 06 contract, and the spread between the 6 - 8 contracts begins to shrink [11] Group 5: Investment Strategy - Long positions and arbitrage positions can be gradually closed for profit [12]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The main shipping companies have announced price increases in June, and it is necessary to pay attention to the final implementation of the price increases for the 06 contract and the game of the expected price increase for the 08 contract [2][4] - The 06 contract will gradually return to the "real" end trading as the delivery deadline approaches, and the prices of major shipping companies are gradually adjusting. Subsequently, other shipping companies will gradually revise their freight rates downwards to reduce the gap with Maersk's prices [4] - In August, which is the traditional peak season, there is still an expectation of price increases, and the game between expectation and reality for the 08 contract is intense. Recently, it is more recommended to conduct arbitrage operations [4] - In 2025, it is still a big year for the delivery of container ships. As of May 25, 2025, a total of 109 container ships have been delivered, with a total delivery capacity of 873,100 TEU [6] - The strategy suggests that the main contract fluctuates, and the arbitrage strategy is to go long on the 08 contract and short on the 10 contract [6] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Prices - As of May 26, 2025, the total open interest of all contracts of the container shipping index for European routes futures was 99,663 lots, and the single - day trading volume was 122,594 lots. The closing prices of EC2602, EC2604, EC2506, EC2508, EC2510, and EC2512 contracts were 1405.00, 1243.00, 1841.50, 2085.00, 1379.00, and 1568.00 respectively [5] 3.2 Spot Prices - On May 23, the SCFI (Shanghai - Europe route) price was 1317.00 US dollars/TEU, the SCFI (Shanghai - West Coast of the United States) price was 3275.00 US dollars/FEU, and the SCFI (Shanghai - East Coast of the United States) price was 4284.00 US dollars/FEU [5] - On May 26, the SCFIS (Shanghai - Europe) was 1247.05 points, and the SCFIS (Shanghai - West Coast of the United States) was 1719.79 points [5] 3.3 Container Ship Capacity Supply - In 2025, it is a big year for the delivery of container ships. As of May 25, 2025, 109 container ships have been delivered, with a total delivery capacity of 873,100 TEU. Among them, 34 ships with a capacity of 12,000 - 16,999 TEU have been delivered, with a total capacity of 513,200 TEU; 4 ships with a capacity of over 17,000 TEU have been delivered, with a total capacity of 94,864 TEU [6] - In June, the shipping capacity on the European route remains at a relatively high level, and the shipping capacity on the Shanghai - East and West Coasts of the United States route has increased significantly month - on - month. The average weekly shipping capacity on the Shanghai - European route in June is about 280,000 TEU, and the shipping capacity in weeks 23/24/25/26/27 is 285,700/275,000/319,000/243,000 TEU respectively, an increase of more than 20% compared with the same period last year. The average weekly shipping capacity in July is 261,000 TEU [2] - The average weekly shipping capacity on the Shanghai - East and West Coasts of the United States route in June is 328,000 TEU, 243,400 TEU in May, and 295,000 TEU in July. The shipping capacity on the Shanghai - East and West Coasts of the United States route has recovered rapidly in June [2] 3.4 Supply Chain No specific analysis content is provided in the given text, only the catalog of supply - chain - related figures is listed. 3.5 Demand and European Economy No specific analysis content is provided in the given text, only the catalog of demand and European - economy - related figures is listed.

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 II GER期货 航运衍生品数据日报 航司本周集体再次尝试宣涨欧线6月的运价至3200-3300$/FEU,MSC线上开舱价值2600$/EU,马士基则开舱 占 2200$/FEU,随后涨至2300$/FEU。 盘面:(1)上周受中美和谈落地超预期后, 各合约全面快速上行修补"特朗普缺口"后，回归基本面博弈，本周 整体处于景荡,多家头部航司在上周报出3200-33008/FEU的6月提涨报价后,本周仅剩马士基还没报出,马士基的报 价牵动市场情绪，欧线细分港口报出2000$/FEU同时MSC降价至2600$/FEU带动市场下行，最终欧基准报价为 12008/FEU,开舱迅速涨至23008/FEU,08合约此前预期打得过高涨幅最大,随着6月定价逐步清晰,市场开始交易确 定性更高的06合约,6-8合约价差开始收缩。 | | | | 国贸期货研究院 能源化工研究中心 | | 投资咨询号：Z0021177 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 卢钊毅 | | 从业资格号:F031018 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - The shipping companies have issued price increase letters for June. The focus is on the final price implementation under the high - capacity background in June and whether the shipping companies will raise prices again in the second half of June. The 08 contract is facing a strong game between expectations and reality due to the traditional peak season in August and relatively low capacity in July. It is recommended to conduct arbitrage operations recently [3]. - The supply of shipping capacity in European routes in June is relatively high, and the shipping capacity of Shanghai - East and West US routes has increased significantly month - on - month in June. The US and China have adjusted tariffs, suspending part of the additional tariffs [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Futures Price - As of May 23, 2025, the total open interest of all contracts of the container shipping index European line futures was 107,007.00 lots, and the single - day trading volume was 133,162.00 lots. The closing prices of EC2602, EC2604, EC2506, EC2508, EC2510, and EC2512 contracts were 1450.20, 1266.00, 1768.00, 2206.00, 1451.90, and 1617.30 respectively [4]. 2. Spot Price - On May 16, the SCFI (Shanghai - Europe route) price was 1154.00 US dollars/TEU, the SCFI (Shanghai - West US route) price was 3091.00 US dollars/FEU, and the SCFI (Shanghai - East US) price was 4069.00 US dollars/FEU. On May 19, the SCFIS (Shanghai - Europe) was 1265.30 points, and the SCFIS (Shanghai - West US) was 1446.36 points [4]. 3. Container Ship Capacity Supply - In 2025, it is still a big year for container ship deliveries. As of May 16, 2025, 98 container ships have been delivered, with a total delivery capacity of 762,700 TEU. Among them, 31 ships with a capacity of 12,000 - 16,999 TEU have been delivered, with a total capacity of 467,300 TEU, and 3 ships with a capacity of over 17,000 TEU have been delivered, with a total capacity of 70,872 TEU [4]. - The average weekly shipping capacity in June was about 280,000 TEU. The shipping capacities in weeks 23/24/25/26/27 were 296,200/302,800/282,300/226,000/268,200 TEU respectively, with an average of 277,000 TEU, a year - on - year increase of more than 20%. The average weekly shipping capacity in July was 259,000 TEU. The average weekly shipping capacity of the Shanghai - East and West US routes in June was 320,500 TEU, while that in May was 243,400 TEU [2]. 4. Supply Chain No specific analysis content provided, only figure references. 5. Demand and European Economy No specific analysis content provided, only figure references.

FICC日报 | 2025-05-22 马士基6月第一周运价低于预期，6月下半月仍存涨价预期 市场分析 线上报价方面。 Gemini Cooperation：马士基上海-鹿特丹22周船期报价1010/1709，上海-伦敦门户港23周报价开出1200/2000，目 前已经涨至1272/2124；HPL 6月份船期报价1875/3150。 MSC+Premier Alliance：MSC 5月下半月船期报价1130/1890，6月上半月船期报价1580/2640；ONE 5月船期报价 1661/1637，6月上半月船期报价3101/3237；HMM 5月船期报价1067/1704，6月份上半月船期报价1917/3404。 Ocean Alliance：COSCO 6月船上半月期报价2125/3225；CMA 5月份船期报价1210/1995，6月份上半月船期报价 1835/3245；EMC 5月份船期报价1505/2160，6月份上半月船期2305/3260；OOCL 6月船上半月期报价1900/3200。 主要船司宣涨6月份价格，MSC 6月份涨价函价格1920/3200，CMA6月份涨价函价格1750/310 ...

Core Viewpoint - The shipping industry, particularly the European route, is experiencing fluctuations in freight rates due to trade tensions and geopolitical factors, with short-term demand expectations showing signs of improvement despite ongoing uncertainties [1][4]. Group 1: Market Performance - The main contract for European shipping opened lower and fell over 2% during the day, reaching a low of 2261.0 points, following a previous day where it rose over 6% and closed up 4.36% [1]. - The Shanghai export container freight index for European routes reported a decrease of 2.9%, standing at 1265.30 points as of May 19, 2025 [2]. Group 2: Freight Rates - Current spot freight rates for the latter half of May have dropped to a range of $1500-$1900 per FEU, with various shipping companies adjusting their rates, such as YML at around $1600 and MSC at $1890 [2]. - Predictions indicate that the "explosion" of demand on the US routes may continue until late July, potentially leading shipping companies to reallocate capacity from European routes, tightening supply and driving up European freight rates [1]. Group 3: Demand and Supply Dynamics - The demand for European shipping is expected to improve due to a potential recovery in US line demand, which may alleviate pressure on European routes [3][5]. - The average weekly capacity for May, June, and July is projected at 27.46, 29.89, and 29.83 million TEU respectively, with attention needed on future shipping schedule adjustments [5]. Group 4: Market Sentiment and Strategy - Short-term trading sentiment remains bullish due to the lack of significant negative drivers, with expectations for freight rates to rise despite potential downward adjustments in the short term [3]. - Investors are advised to remain cautious and monitor geopolitical developments, capacity, and cargo volume data closely [4].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - European routes have high capacity in June, and the price of the 06 contract has risen to around $2600/FEU. As MSC has started to revise the European route prices for June, other shipping companies will likely follow suit. Attention should be paid to the final actual prices in June. The 08 contract, being in the traditional peak season, still has price increase expectations, leading to a strong game between expectations and reality. Recently, arbitrage operations are more recommended [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Futures Prices - As of May 20, 2025, the total open interest of all container shipping index European route futures contracts was 118,206 lots, and the single - day trading volume was 166,866 lots. The closing prices of EC2602, EC2604, EC2506, EC2508, EC2510, and EC2512 contracts were 1451.20, 1249.00, 1772.20, 2387.90, 1482.10, and 1625.20 respectively [4]. 2. Spot Prices - On May 16, the SCFI (Shanghai - Europe route) price was $1154/TEU, the SCFI (Shanghai - US West route) price was $3091/FEU, and the SCFI (Shanghai - US East) price was $4069/FEU. On May 19, the SCFIS (Shanghai - Europe) was 1265.30 points, and the SCFIS (Shanghai - US West) was 1446.36 points [4]. 3. Container Ship Capacity Supply - In 2025, it is still a big year for container ship deliveries. As of May 16, 2025, 98 container ships had been delivered, with a total capacity of 762,700 TEU. Among them, 31 ships with a capacity of 12,000 - 16,999 TEU were delivered, with a total capacity of 467,300 TEU, and 3 ships with a capacity of over 17,000 TEU were delivered, with a total capacity of 70,872 TEU [5]. - The monthly average weekly capacity in June was about 280,000 TEU. The weekly capacities in WEEK23/24/25/26/27 were 296,200/302,800/282,300/226,000/268,200 TEU, with an average of 277,000 TEU, a year - on - year increase of over 20%. The monthly average weekly capacity in July was 259,000 TEU. The average weekly capacity on the Shanghai - US East and West routes in June was 320,500 TEU, while in May it was 243,400 TEU, showing a rapid recovery [2]. 4. Supply Chain - Geopolitically, Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu stated that Israel would fully control the Gaza Strip, and the Israeli Air Force attacked over 160 targets in the Gaza Strip in the past day [2]. 5. Demand and European Economy - In May, more than 10 ships on the US routes were transferred to European routes, increasing the supply - side pressure on European routes in May. Most shipping companies continuously revised down their prices in May. The price of the OA Alliance in May dropped to around $1700/FEU, the price of YML in the PA Alliance in May was $1500/FEU, and the price of Maersk in WEEK22 was over $1600/FEU [3].