分析师 1: 投资者大家好，我是浙商证券大金融组组长，银行和政策首席分析师杜晴川。今天我们就 我们刚刚发布的这个深度报告。减资还会增配银行股吗？我们进行一些那个观点汇报。接 下来，我先就我们这篇报告的核心观点做一个阐述。然后具体的相关的问题，由我们的这 个选你老师来汇报。我们的核心观点是，我们认为，就是险资增持银行股还是符合一个长 期趋势的。测算下来，预计 2026 年、2027 年，合计约有 4000 亿的这个险资资金会增 值银行股。时点上，我们预计 2026 年的二季度开始，这个配置动力可能会进一步增强。 在投资的观点上，我们认为，未来险资增持银行股还是可期的，所以继续看好银行股的这 个绝对收益的机会。当前这个时间，我们重点推荐的新动能组合。包括南京银行，这是我 们的年度金股，还有那个浦发银行、上海银行、玉龙商行和这个工商银行。接下来，我们 把时间交给我们的宣妮老师，她来详细的汇报我们那个关心的研究的几个问题。 徐安妮 浙商证券分析师: 那从期限匹配来看，配置高股息的一个资产是可以缓解寿险的一个期限错配的一个压力。 那可以看到，近年来，不少保险公司是将红利策略、高股息股票视为新的一个有机资产。 那把它放入 ...

权益类产品业绩表现亮眼 在今年以来已披露最新净值的1602只保险资管产品中，实现正收益的产品超九成。 分类型来看，固收类保险资管产品仍占据较多席位，业绩表现整体较为稳健，在1098只固收类产品中， 有1038只产品今年以来实现正收益；权益类保险资管产品有269只，今年以来有245只产品实现正收益； 混合类保险资管产品有220只，今年以来有195只产品实现正收益。 ● 本报记者 石诗语 Wind数据显示，截至2月24日，今年以来已披露最新净值的保险资管产品共有1602只，其中今年以来实 现区间正收益的产品占比高达93.2%。从产品类型看，权益类保险资管产品收益表现亮眼，有近20只产 品今年以来区间收益率超10%。展望后市，业内人士表示，保险资管机构将继续加强对科技创新、新质 生产力等重点领域优质上市公司的跟踪和挖掘。 截至2月24日，今年以来，区间收益率排名前10位的产品中有6只产品属于权益类，其余属于混合类。含 权类保险资管产品近期的高收益率主要得益于年初的市场回暖，具有一定的阶段性特征。其收益波动受 权益市场影响较大，2月以来随着部分板块的阶段性回调，含权类保险资管产品收益率也随之下行。 "今年年初，科技成 ...

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China and the National Financial Regulatory Administration have assessed the systemically important banks for 2025, identifying 21 banks, with notable changes in the rankings and classifications of certain banks [1][2]. Group 1: Systemically Important Banks - A total of 21 domestic systemically important banks have been recognized, including 6 state-owned commercial banks, 10 joint-stock commercial banks, and 5 city commercial banks [1]. - The latest list shows that Zhejiang Commercial Bank has been newly included, while Industrial Bank has been reclassified from the third group to the second group [1][2]. - The banks are categorized into five groups based on their systemic importance scores, with the first group containing 11 banks, the second group 4 banks, the third group 2 banks, the fourth group 4 banks, and no banks in the fifth group [1]. Group 2: Zhejiang Commercial Bank - As of September 2025, Zhejiang Commercial Bank has an asset scale of approximately 3.4 trillion yuan, with capital adequacy ratios of 12.15%, 9.61%, and 8.40% for total capital, tier 1 capital, and core tier 1 capital respectively, all maintaining reasonable levels [2]. - The bank reported an operating income of approximately 48.9 billion yuan and a net profit attributable to shareholders of approximately 11.7 billion yuan for the first three quarters of the previous year [2]. - In the 2025 Global Bank 1000 ranking published by The Banker magazine, Zhejiang Commercial Bank ranked 82nd by tier 1 capital and 75th by total assets, both improving by 2 positions from the previous year [2]. Group 3: Regulatory Framework - Systemically important banks are defined as large, complex institutions with significant interconnections to other financial entities, necessitating stricter regulatory measures to ensure financial stability [2]. - The regulatory framework established in October 2021 mandates additional capital requirements for these banks, ranging from 0.25% to 1.5% based on their group classification [2]. - The authorities plan to enhance macro-prudential management and micro-prudential supervision to ensure the safe and sound operation of systemically important banks, thereby supporting high-quality development of the real economy [3].

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market experienced a positive start to the year, but bank stocks continued to be underperformers, reflecting ongoing concerns about credit quality and lending dynamics in the context of stable LPR rates and lower-than-expected credit growth [2][3][4]. Market Performance - On the first trading day of the year, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.87% to 4117.41 points, while the Shenzhen Component increased by 1.36% and the ChiNext Index by 0.99% [3]. - The banking sector saw a decline of 0.24%, with more stocks falling than rising, indicating a divergence in performance compared to other sectors [3]. - The China Securities Banking Index has retreated nearly 16% from its peak in July 2022, contrasting with an 18% rise in the broader market during the same period [3]. Credit and Lending Dynamics - The latest financial data revealed that new RMB loans in January amounted to 4.71 trillion yuan, lower than the 5.13 trillion yuan recorded in January 2022, indicating a year-on-year decrease in credit growth [3][4]. - The social financing scale increased by 7.22 trillion yuan in January, with a notable decline in loans to the real economy, which increased by 4.9 trillion yuan, down by 317.8 billion yuan year-on-year [3][4]. Institutional Research Focus - Institutional interest in bank research has decreased compared to previous years, with 16 banks undergoing 63 institutional surveys in 2023, involving 467 institutions, compared to 20 banks and 92 surveys in the same period last year [6]. - Key areas of focus during these surveys included credit quality, liability management under margin pressure, capital replenishment plans, and asset quality outlook [6][7]. Future Outlook and Strategies - Analysts predict that the trend of prioritizing credit quality over quantity will become more pronounced in 2023, with significant attention on post-Spring Festival operational rhythms and consumer spending [4][5]. - Banks are expected to enhance their non-interest income sources, with strategies including the promotion of wealth management products and diversified capital replenishment channels to address ongoing profitability pressures [8][9].

Core Viewpoint - The enthusiasm for institutional research on banks has declined compared to previous years, with a focus on credit quality and the impact of interest rate spreads on profitability [1][6]. Group 1: Market Performance - On the first trading day of the Year of the Horse, the A-share market saw a rise, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.87% and the Shenzhen Component Index up 1.36%, while the banking sector fell by 0.24% [2]. - The banking sector has experienced a divergence in performance, with state-owned banks declining while some regional banks have shown improvement [2]. - The China Securities Banking Index has retreated nearly 16% from its peak in July 2022, while the broader market has increased by nearly 18% during the same period [2]. Group 2: Credit and Monetary Policy - The latest LPR remained unchanged for both the 1-year and 5-year terms, marking a period of stability in interest rates [3]. - In January, new RMB loans totaled 4.71 trillion yuan, lower than the 5.13 trillion yuan in January 2022, indicating a slowdown in credit growth [2][3]. - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) is expected to maintain liquidity support through MLF operations, with a net injection of 300 billion yuan in February [3][4]. Group 3: Institutional Research Focus - Institutional research has shown a preference for banks in economically promising regions, with a significant number of surveys conducted on smaller banks in the Yangtze River Delta [6]. - Key areas of focus during institutional surveys include credit demand, interest margin pressures, capital adequacy, and asset quality outlook [6][7]. - The trend of "deposit migration" towards equity markets is noted, with banks expected to enhance their wealth management and middle-income sources [4][7]. Group 4: Profitability and Capital Management - Banks are under pressure regarding profitability, with institutions increasingly inquiring about capital adequacy and internal capital replenishment strategies [8]. - Several banks plan to explore diverse capital replenishment channels, including issuing capital-boosting bonds and optimizing business structures to enhance capital efficiency [8].

Core Viewpoint - The market experienced fluctuations with the ChiNext Index rising over 2% at one point, while the Shanghai Composite Index closed up by 0.87%. In this context, the Huatai-PineBridge Low Volatility ETF (512890) increased by 0.43%, closing at 1.172 yuan, with a turnover rate of 1.72% and a trading volume of 5.15 billion yuan, leading its category [1][6]. ETF Performance - The Huatai-PineBridge Low Volatility ETF (512890) reported a trading volume of 154.12 billion yuan over the last 20 trading days, averaging 7.71 billion yuan per day. Since the beginning of the year, the total trading volume reached 250.40 billion yuan, with an average of 8.08 billion yuan per day [2][7]. - The ETF has seen significant net inflows, with 3.6 billion yuan in the last 5 trading days, 9 billion yuan in the last 10 days, 29.2 billion yuan in the last 20 days, and 48.6 billion yuan in the last 60 days [2][7]. Top Holdings - The top ten holdings of the Huatai-PineBridge Low Volatility ETF include major companies across various sectors such as banking, food and beverage, home appliances, and pharmaceuticals. Notable holdings include Shanghai Bank, Nanjing Bank, Ping An Bank, and Gree Electric Appliances, with a total market value of approximately 6.72 billion yuan, accounting for 25.34% of the ETF's total market value [2][7]. Market Outlook - Multiple institutions have expressed optimistic views on the post-holiday market and dividend strategies. CITIC Securities believes that the A-share market, primarily driven by manufacturing and finance, will be less affected by AI disruptions compared to US and Hong Kong markets, suggesting a continuation of the spring rally [4][9]. - Guotai Junan Securities noted that with China's economic policy focusing on domestic demand, investor pessimism towards traditional domestic industries is likely to be corrected, contributing to a more stable economic outlook for 2026 [4][9]. Investment Strategy - The Huatai-PineBridge Low Volatility ETF, established on December 19, 2018, has achieved a return of 76.88% over the past five years, outperforming its benchmark and ranking 51st among 909 funds. Investors are encouraged to consider regular investment strategies to mitigate volatility risks [10].

Core Viewpoint - Insurance capital's increased investment in bank stocks aligns with long-term trends, with an estimated total of 400 billion yuan expected to be allocated to bank stocks in 2026 and 2027, starting from Q2 2026 [1] Group 1: Reasons for Increased Investment - Internal drivers include the long-term preference of insurance capital for bank stocks due to high dividends, stable operations, and better capital utilization compared to other stocks [1] - External catalysts involve policy guidance and regulatory changes that expand the investment space for insurance capital, encouraging long-term funds to enter the market [1] Group 2: Methods of Investment - Insurance capital primarily increases its holdings in bank stocks through secondary market acquisitions, with additional methods including agreement transfers and convertible bond conversions [2] - The investment accounting methods for insurance capital include TPL, OCI, and long-term stock investments, focusing on price differences, dividends, and equity returns [2] Group 3: Investment Space Outlook - The estimated new inflow of insurance capital into the stock market is projected to be 1.34 trillion yuan in 2026 and 1.41 trillion yuan in 2027 [3] - It is anticipated that 197.7 billion yuan and 207.6 billion yuan will be allocated to bank stocks in 2026 and 2027, respectively [3] - High-quality regional city commercial banks are expected to be a key focus for insurance capital, with major insurance companies already recognizing these banks as viable investment options [3] Group 4: Monitoring Investment Allocation - The current phase is seen as a reasonable entry point for insurance capital into the banking sector, with attention on upcoming changes in policy and premium growth [4] - The valuation comparison between banks and other asset classes is crucial, with the current PB ratio of the Shenwan Bank Index at 0.51x, indicating a favorable investment opportunity [4] - Key events such as insurance companies' announcements regarding shareholding and approvals will signal potential future increases in insurance capital holdings [4]

证券研究报告·宏观报告·宏观周报 金融产品周报 20260207 海外市场流动性有企稳迹象，情绪或会好转 【勘误版】 [Table_Summary] 基金规模统计：（2026.2.2-2026.2.6） 市场行情展望：（2026.2.9-2026.2.13） 基金配置建议： 2026 年 02 月 24 日 《商品流动性冲击之后，哪些品种被 "错杀"？》 2026-02-04 《黄金 ETF，2026 年 1 月复盘与 2 月 证券分析师 芦哲 展望》 执业证书：S0600524110003 luzhe@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 唐遥衎 2026-02-03 执业证书：S0600524120016 东吴证券研究所 1 / 20 tangyk@dwzq.com.cn 相关研究 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 [Table_Tag] ◼ 权益类 ETF 基金规模变化统计：规模变化排名前三名的权益类 ETF 类 型分别为：规模指数 ETF（154.06 亿元），跨境行业指数 ETF（66.24 亿 元），策略指数 ETF（53.71 亿元）；基金规模变化排名后三名的权益 类 ETF 类型分别为：跨境规模 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the securities and banking sectors [9]. Core Insights - The report highlights the structural relaxation of refinancing policies, which is expected to improve profitability in the banking sector. The central bank's Q4 monetary policy report emphasizes the implementation of personal credit repair measures, supporting micro-entities [1][28]. - The report identifies investment opportunities in the order of securities > insurance > banking, with a focus on the potential for marginal improvements in the brokerage business due to the recent refinancing policy adjustments [12][24]. Summary by Sections Securities Sector - The optimization of refinancing measures announced by the exchanges is expected to lead to marginal improvements in the brokerage business, with leading firms likely to solidify their advantages through professional capabilities. The Chinese brokerage index performed better than the Hang Seng index during the holiday period, increasing by 0.20% [2][13]. - Recommended stocks include leading brokerages such as CITIC Securities, Guotai Junan, and GF Securities, as well as quality regional firms like Guoyuan Securities [3][12]. Insurance Sector - The report notes a mixed performance in the insurance sector, with property insurance companies showing gains while life insurance companies mostly declined. China Property & Casualty Insurance rose by 5%, while China Taiping fell by 4% [24][25]. - Investors are advised to focus on quality leaders in the insurance sector, with a preference for defensive stocks like China Ping An and China Life Insurance for conservative investors [24][25]. Banking Sector - The banking sector is experiencing a recovery in performance, with Q4 profits improving and net interest margins stabilizing. The report indicates a year-on-year increase in social financing, primarily due to the pre-positioning of government bonds and a rebound in off-balance-sheet financing [28][37]. - Recommended stocks include quality regional banks such as Nanjing Bank and Chengdu Bank, which are expected to perform well due to their strong fundamentals [3][28].

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China and the National Financial Regulatory Administration have conducted the 2025 assessment of systemically important banks, identifying 21 domestic banks categorized into five groups based on their systemic importance scores [1] Group 1: Assessment of Systemically Important Banks - A total of 21 domestic systemically important banks have been recognized, including 6 state-owned commercial banks, 10 joint-stock commercial banks, and 5 city commercial banks [1] - The banks are divided into five groups based on their systemic importance scores, with the first group consisting of 11 banks, the second group having 4 banks, the third group with 2 banks, the fourth group containing 4 banks, and the fifth group having no banks [1] Group 2: Breakdown of Bank Groups - The first group includes: China Minsheng Bank, China Everbright Bank, Ping An Bank, Huaxia Bank, Ningbo Bank, Jiangsu Bank, Beijing Bank, Nanjing Bank, Guangfa Bank, Zheshang Bank, and Shanghai Bank [1] - The second group consists of: Industrial Bank, China CITIC Bank, Shanghai Pudong Development Bank, and China Postal Savings Bank [1] - The third group includes: Bank of Communications and China Merchants Bank [1] - The fourth group comprises: Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, Bank of China, China Construction Bank, and Agricultural Bank of China [1] - The fifth group currently has no banks included [1] Group 3: Future Regulatory Actions - The People's Bank of China and the National Financial Regulatory Administration will implement additional regulatory measures for systemically important banks according to the "Regulations on Additional Supervision of Systemically Important Banks (Trial)" [1] - The aim is to enhance the synergy between macro-prudential management and micro-prudential supervision, ensuring the safe and sound operation of systemically important banks [1] - This initiative is intended to better support the high-quality development of the real economy [1]