Group 1 - The core point of the article is that China Merchants Highway Network Technology Holdings Company Limited has increased its stake in Shenzhen Expressway Company Limited by purchasing 566,000 shares at a price of HKD 7.6 per share, totaling HKD 4.3016 million [1] - After the acquisition, the total number of shares held by China Merchants Highway is approximately 157 million, representing a 21.01% ownership stake in Shenzhen Expressway [1]

Group 1 - The core point of the news is that China Merchants Highway Network Technology Holdings Limited has increased its stake in Shenzhen Expressway Company Limited by purchasing 566,000 shares at an average price of HKD 7.60 per share, totaling approximately HKD 4.30 million [1][2] - Following this transaction, China Merchants Highway Network Technology Holdings Limited's total shareholding has risen to 157,018,000 shares, increasing its ownership percentage from 20.93% to 21.01% [1][2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a stable outlook for the Chinese toll road industry, reflecting the expectation that the overall credit quality of the industry will not undergo significant changes in the next 12 to 18 months [3][32]. Core Insights - The toll road industry in 2025 is characterized by stable overall performance, with passenger transport experiencing a "total decline, slight increase in turnover" due to competition from other transportation modes, while freight transport continues to grow under macroeconomic support [4][31]. - The fixed asset investment scale in the toll road sector has been on a downward trend, with future construction tasks primarily concentrated in the western regions, which may face greater investment pressures [4][12]. - The overall profitability of toll road operators has shown slight recovery, with debt repayment capabilities slightly declining but remaining at a good level, and financial leverage levels appearing relatively stable [4][31]. Summary by Sections Analysis Approach - The report analyzes the overall fundamentals of the toll road industry from the perspectives of demand changes, investment pressures, and industry policies, while summarizing the current credit situation and future credit trends for the next 12 to 18 months [5]. Industry Fundamentals - The toll road industry in 2025 shows stable performance, with passenger transport volume slightly declining by 2.4% to 11.492 billion passengers, while freight transport volume increased by 3.4% to 43.288 billion tons [6][7]. - The construction of a smart transportation system is expected to bring new opportunities and challenges to the toll road industry [6][11]. - The proportion of road transport turnover in the total transport industry is expected to decline slightly, with road passenger turnover accounting for 14.35% and freight turnover for 29.81% [8]. Financial Performance - The net profit of toll road operators has shown slight growth due to diversified business development and a decrease in financial expenses, with a net profit increase of 4.29% in 2025 [22][30]. - The overall financial performance remains stable, with the total debt of sample enterprises maintaining a low growth rate, and the financial leverage continuing to decline [24][30]. - The cash flow from operating activities for sample enterprises has increased, with net cash flow from operations growing by 10.33% and 8.62% in 2024 and the first three quarters of 2025, respectively [26][30]. Conclusion - The toll road industry is expected to maintain stable performance, with the overall credit level remaining stable due to manageable capital expenditure pressures and ongoing consolidation within the industry [31][32].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the transportation industry [7] Core Views - The report highlights three main investment themes for February: aviation, oil shipping, and road transportation, driven by the Spring Festival travel peak and geopolitical factors [1][2][3] - The aviation sector is expected to benefit from improved supply-demand dynamics, with a focus on major airlines [1][2] - Oil shipping is anticipated to see price increases due to geopolitical tensions affecting supply [1][3] - The road transportation sector is viewed as a stable dividend asset amid market volatility, with specific recommendations for certain stocks [1][5] Aviation - The passenger load factor for 2025 is projected to rise to 85.1%, with ticket prices showing a mixed trend [2][14] - The Spring Festival is expected to catalyze stock price movements, with a forecast of 95 million passengers during the travel period, a 5.3% increase year-on-year [16][28] - The report notes that fuel price increases are manageable, as fuel surcharges can cover most cost increases [20][21] Oil Shipping - In January, oil shipping rates continued to strengthen due to increased demand from geopolitical tensions in Venezuela and Iran [3][34] - The report indicates that oil shipping rates are expected to rise further post-Spring Festival, despite a potential short-term dip during the holiday season [34][36] Logistics - The express delivery sector is experiencing a slowdown in volume growth, while prices remain stable [4] - There are signs of recovery in the hazardous materials logistics sector, driven by improved supply-demand dynamics in the upstream chemical industry [4] Road Transportation - The road transportation sector is characterized by high demand for both passenger and freight services, with a notable increase in short-distance travel during the Spring Festival [5][28] - The report recommends specific stocks in the road sector, highlighting their potential for stable returns amid market fluctuations [1][5] Airport Operations - The report emphasizes the steady growth in passenger throughput at listed airports, with international routes contributing significantly to this growth [28] - It also notes that new capacity coming online may impact profitability, particularly for airports undergoing capital expenditure cycles [28][33]

月论高股息：防御配置价值显现 20260202 摘要 红利股配置价值上升，周期型红利股如石油石化、建材、有色等表现强 劲。精工红利择时模型转为看多，建议关注公用事业、保险、出版等稳 定性高股息板块，以及铁路、公路、环保、大众消费和地产等潜力型高 股息板块。 险资出于现金收益和股息需求，将继续增配红利股，成为确定性主题。 年初分红险保单销售良好，保费流入增加，险资将在长债、成长股和红 利股中趋势性增配红利。 高速公路板块调整幅度较大，龙头企业如招商公路股息率达 4~4.5%， 部分小票超 5%。1 月货运量边际走强，春运旺季人流出行预测良好， 板块景气度上行，资金流入情况良好，推荐龙头企业。 建筑建材行业看好央企重组优化提速背景下低估值企业，中长期看好涂 料和定制板材赛道，推荐兔宝宝。水泥领域看好业绩稳定且具有投资收 益来源的公司，如防水企业雨虹。 建筑建材行业推荐中材国际和四川路桥等国央企或地方国企，其在局部 区域需求景气或出海业务方面具有较高的业绩增长确定性及分红确定性， 股息率约为 5.5%至 6%。 Q&A 近期市场波动较大，春节前后红利股的配置价值如何？ 近期受到海外地缘冲突和美联储主席人选变动的影响 ...

Core Insights - The event "Low Altitude Boundless, Win Together Nanshan" highlighted the rapid development of China's low-altitude economy, driven by policy support, technological breakthroughs, and capital investment [3][4] - The event aimed to identify and promote quality enterprises and innovative projects in the low-altitude economy sector, facilitating the gathering of capital, technology, and talent [3][4] Group 1: Event Overview - The event was successfully held in Shenzhen, with over 400 representatives from government, enterprises, academia, investment, and media attending [2] - The event included award presentations for leading enterprises, emerging companies, and innovative scenarios in the low-altitude economy [4][9] Group 2: Awards and Recognitions - A total of 12 leading enterprises, 8 emerging companies, and 20 innovative scenarios were recognized, showcasing the depth of technological accumulation and the vitality of the industry [4][9] - DJI Innovation was highlighted as a representative of leading enterprises, while Zhejiang Geek Bridge represented emerging companies [4] Group 3: Industry Development Insights - Experts emphasized the importance of continuous innovation and collaboration among industry chain enterprises for the high-quality development of the low-altitude economy [3][4] - A report presented during the event outlined eight foundational aspects necessary for the sustainable development of the low-altitude economy, including governance, resources, policies, and market [9] Group 4: Future Development and Collaborations - The establishment of a low-altitude economic ecosystem service system was announced, detailing various components such as innovation centers, industrial parks, and service guarantee systems [11] - Multiple strategic partnerships were formed to advance projects related to low-altitude operations and technology innovation, indicating a strong focus on integrating technology with market applications [12] Group 5: Roundtable Discussions - A roundtable discussion featured industry leaders discussing the construction of innovative low-altitude scenarios and the promotion of high-quality development in the sector [13] - Topics included scene applications, whole machine manufacturing, government-enterprise collaboration, financial empowerment, and technological trends [13] Group 6: Event Conclusion - The event concluded with a spectacular drone performance, showcasing the award-winning enterprises and promoting the upcoming APEC meeting, symbolizing the fusion of technology and art [15] - The event served as a high-end platform for collaboration and exchange in the low-altitude economy, injecting new momentum into the development of the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area and the national low-altitude economic ecosystem [15]

Core Viewpoint - The railway and highway sector experienced a slight decline of 0.06% on February 2, with Western Entrepreneurship leading the drop. The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4015.75, down 2.48%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13824.35, down 2.69% [1]. Group 1: Stock Performance - Hainan Highway saw a closing price of 6.60, with an increase of 3.77% and a trading volume of 640,500 shares, amounting to a transaction value of 425 million yuan [1]. - China Merchants Highway closed at 9.61, up 2.45%, with a trading volume of 288,500 shares and a transaction value of 279 million yuan [1]. - Shandong Highway closed at 10.21, increasing by 1.90%, with a trading volume of 97,200 shares and a transaction value of 99.28 million yuan [1]. - Western Entrepreneurship led the decline with a closing price of 4.97, down 5.15%, with a trading volume of 325,300 shares and a transaction value of 165 million yuan [2]. - Iron Dragon Logistics closed at 6.38, down 3.04%, with a trading volume of 260,400 shares and a transaction value of 168 million yuan [2]. Group 2: Capital Flow - The railway and highway sector saw a net inflow of 30.83 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors experienced a net inflow of 8.58 million yuan [2]. - The main stocks with significant net inflows included Beijing-Shanghai High-Speed Railway with 94.52 million yuan and Hainan Highway with 32.26 million yuan [3]. - Retail investors showed a net outflow in several stocks, including Hainan Highway and Beijing-Shanghai High-Speed Railway, indicating a mixed sentiment among different investor types [3].

证 券 研 究 报 告 【策略月报】 红利内部轮动模型：迈向周期与制造 ——多行业联合红利资产 1 月报 策略研究 策略月报 2026 年 02 月 01 日 华创证券研究所 证券分析师：姚佩 邮箱：yaopei@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360522120004 证券分析师：吴一凡 邮箱：wuyifan@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360516090002 证券分析师：徐康 电话：021-20572556 邮箱：xukang@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360518060005 证券分析师：马野 邮箱：maye@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360523040003 相关研究报告 《【华创策略】杠杆&ETF 资金分化趋势逆转—— 流动性&交易拥挤度&投资者温度计周报》 2025-12-01 《【华创策略】自媒体 A 股搜索热度重回高位— —流动性&交易拥挤度&投资者温度计周报》 2025-11-25 《【华创策略】60 日均线的机遇挑战——策略周 聚焦》 2025-11-23 《【华创策略】股票型 ETF 为当前流入主力—— 流动性&交易拥挤度&投资者温度计周报》 2025-11-1 ...

Investment Rating - The report rates the railway and highway industry as "Overweight" [2][4]. Core Insights - The freight volume in China is projected to reach 58.7 billion tons in 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 3.2%. The growth rates for railway, highway, waterway, and civil aviation freight volumes are expected to be 2%, 3.4%, 3.2%, and 13.3% respectively [4]. - Fixed asset investment in transportation is expected to remain high, with an estimated completion of over 3.6 trillion yuan in 2025. The inter-regional personnel flow is projected to reach 66.86 billion person-times, growing by 3.5% year-on-year [4]. - Railway passenger and freight volumes are expected to maintain steady growth, with passenger volume reaching 4.601 billion people and freight volume reaching 5.277 billion tons in 2025, representing year-on-year growth of 6.7% and 2% respectively [4]. - The highway sector is anticipated to improve in 2026 after a slowdown in growth in 2025, with freight volume growth of 3.4% in 2025 [4]. - Investment recommendations include focusing on high dividend stocks and potential market value management catalysts in the highway sector, with specific companies such as Anhui Expressway, Shandong Expressway, and Zhejiang Expressway being highlighted [4]. Summary by Sections Railway Transportation - In 2025, the total passenger turnover is expected to reach 1,639.556 billion person-kilometers, with a year-on-year growth of 3.8%. The total freight turnover is projected to be 3,686.909 billion ton-kilometers, growing by 2.8% [4]. - The investment in railway fixed assets is expected to reach 901.5 billion yuan in 2025, with a year-on-year increase of 6% [4]. Highway Transportation - The growth rate of highway freight volume is expected to slow down in 2025 but is projected to improve in 2026 due to stable demand in highway logistics [4]. Investment Analysis - The report suggests that the highway sector has two main investment themes for the year: traditional high dividend investments and potential market value management catalysts. Recommended companies include Wanhua Expressway, Shandong Expressway, and others [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook on the shipping industry, highlighting strong performance in the sector despite seasonal challenges [4]. Core Insights - The shipbuilding sector is expected to show significant earnings growth, with Su Mei Da's Q4 net profit forecasted at 2.5 billion, a year-on-year increase of 71%, driven by strong contributions from shipbuilding and power generation [5]. - The shipping market continues to experience robust demand, with one-year charter rates for VLCCs rising by 2.8% to $64,000 per day, and Cape rates increasing by 8.4% to $28,700 per day [5]. - The report emphasizes the ongoing volatility in oil transportation rates, with VLCC rates experiencing a 62% increase in a single day due to supply-demand imbalances and geopolitical tensions [5]. - The dry bulk shipping market is also showing resilience, with the BDI index rising by 21.9% week-on-week, driven by strong demand from Australia and Brazil [5]. Summary by Sections Shipbuilding Sector - Su Mei Da's Q4 net profit is projected at 2.5 billion, up 71% year-on-year, exceeding expectations [5]. - ST Songfa's Q4 net profit is estimated between 11-14 million, with a net profit margin of 14%, reflecting a 1.6 percentage point increase from Q3 [5]. - Attention is drawn to China Shipbuilding's upcoming full consolidation of assets and the release of high-priced orders in Q1 2026 [5]. Shipping Market - The report notes a continued upward trend in shipping rates, with VLCC rates increasing by 2.8% and Cape rates by 8.4% [5]. - The VLCC average rate rose by 16% week-on-week, reaching $122,326 per day, with Middle East to Far East rates dropping by 25% [5]. - The report highlights the impact of geopolitical tensions on oil transportation, particularly in the context of the Ukraine conflict [5]. Dry Bulk Shipping - The BDI index recorded a 21.9% increase, with Capesize rates rising by 35.8% to $31,809 per day [5]. - Strong demand from Australia and Brazil is noted, with limited supply contributing to higher rates [5]. Air Transportation - The report indicates a significant opportunity for airlines due to rising passenger volumes and historical high load factors, suggesting a potential "golden era" for the industry [5]. - Airlines such as China Eastern Airlines and Spring Airlines are highlighted as key players to watch [5]. Express Delivery - The report anticipates uncertainty in the express delivery sector due to fluctuating demand and industry self-regulation policies, but notes that leading companies like Zhongtong Express and YTO Express are expected to maintain their market share and profitability [5]. Rail and Road Transportation - Rail freight volumes and highway truck traffic are showing resilience, with recent data indicating a slight decline in volumes but overall stability [5]. - The report suggests that high dividend investment themes and potential value management catalysts in the highway sector are worth monitoring [5].