证券研究报告 | 行业策略报告 2026 年 01 月 04 日 三个市场关注点和一个自然均衡点 ——房地产行业 2026 年度投资策略 周期/房地产 q 投资建议： 行业规模 | | | 占比% | | --- | --- | --- | | 股票家数（只） | 258 | 5.0 | | 总市值（十亿元） | 2936.6 | 2.7 | | 流通市值（十亿元） | 2781.7 | 2.8 | 行业指数 % 1m 6m 12m 绝对表现 -1.8 14.2 8.6 相对表现 -4.0 -3.4 -9.1 资料来源：公司数据、招商证券 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 Jan/25 Apr/25 Aug/25 Dec/25 (%) 房地产 沪深300 相关报告 房地产角度：关注（1）业绩相对稳健且股息率较高的【华润置地】【华润万 象生活】等；（2）经营动量有积极变化的公司，例如 25 年【滨江集团】【中 国金茂】【建发国际集团】【越秀地产】等曾演绎这一逻辑；（3）公开债务 偿付压力下降且估值较低的【金地集团】【龙湖集团】等；（4）业绩增长及 分红稳定的物企【保利物业】【绿城服务】等；（5）存在机会型布 ...

Core Insights - Despite industry challenges, four real estate companies are expected to exceed 200 billion yuan in sales by 2025, with the top 10 maintaining a threshold of 100 billion yuan [1][2] - The companies achieving over 200 billion yuan in sales include Poly Developments (253 billion yuan), Greentown China (251.9 billion yuan), China Overseas Property (251.2 billion yuan), and China Resources Land (233.6 billion yuan) [1][2] Group 1: Sales Performance - In December 2025, nearly 70% of 105 typical real estate companies reported a month-on-month increase in total sales, with almost 50% experiencing a month-on-month growth rate exceeding 20% [3] - Notable performers include Yuexiu Property, China State Construction, and Renheng Real Estate, with some companies achieving month-on-month sales growth exceeding 100% [3] - China Resources Land and China State Construction reported year-on-year sales growth rates exceeding 15% [3] Group 2: Market Trends and Future Outlook - The real estate sector is expected to continue its adjustment phase in 2026, with debt restructuring accelerating and the completion of housing delivery tasks [1][9] - The market is anticipated to seek a new supply-demand balance, with structural recovery possible while overall prices are expected to remain stable [9] - The importance of community amenities and services is expected to increase, with a focus on green, smart, healthy, and safe products gaining premium pricing [9] Group 3: Company Resilience and Strategy - 53 companies have maintained their position in the top 100 for five consecutive years, with firms like Binjiang Group and Longfor Group demonstrating stable operations while maintaining investment levels [8] - Some struggling private companies, such as Country Garden and Sunac, remain in the top rankings due to prior land reserves that support sales and debt restructuring efforts [8] - Regional private companies are focusing on local high-capacity cities through precise strategies and partnerships to mitigate financial pressures [8]

Core Insights - The performance of major real estate companies in Xi'an for 2025 shows a decline in sales compared to previous years, with only four companies exceeding sales of 10 billion yuan [1][3]. Group 1: Company Performance - Poly Development, China Railway Construction, and Greentown China topped the sales rankings in Xi'an with sales of 134.8 billion yuan, 131.2 billion yuan, and 129.5 billion yuan respectively [1]. - China Jinmao achieved its first 10 billion yuan sales milestone in Xi'an, ranking fourth with 110.3 billion yuan [4]. - The total sales of the top 10 real estate companies in Xi'an for 2025 amounted to 818.3 billion yuan, a 30.07% decrease from 1,170.3 billion yuan in 2024 [3]. Group 2: Market Trends - The number of companies achieving over 10 billion yuan in sales decreased compared to 2023 and 2024, indicating a challenging market environment [1][2]. - The threshold for entering the top 10 sales rankings dropped from 45.1 billion yuan in 2024 to 39.3 billion yuan in 2025 [3]. - The dominance of state-owned enterprises in the top 10 is notable, with eight out of ten companies being state-owned or having state-owned enterprises as their largest shareholders [5]. Group 3: Local Company Dynamics - Local companies in Xi'an were absent from the top 10 rankings in 2025, with Tiandi Source being the highest-performing local company at 30.6 billion yuan, ranking 13th [7][8]. - The entry of new players like Bangtai, which achieved 22.3 billion yuan in its first year in Xi'an, indicates a shift in the competitive landscape [8]. Group 4: Single Project Sales - The era of high-tech and port areas dominating single project sales in Xi'an has ended, with a more even distribution of successful projects across different regions [12][14]. - The top three single project sales in 2025 were Jinmao Puyi Dongfang, Poly Tianjun, and Qujiang Jinmao Fu, with sales of 35.5 billion yuan, 31.4 billion yuan, and 30.6 billion yuan respectively [15]. - There were no projects exceeding 4 billion yuan in sales in 2025, a significant drop from four such projects in 2024 [17].

Core Insights - The real estate industry is undergoing a transformation with a focus on urban renewal and the "Good House" concept, which emphasizes quality living environments and sustainable development [1][2][4] Group 1: Urban Renewal - Urban renewal has become a priority, with the 2025 national housing and urban construction meeting highlighting significant progress in this area [1][9] - The Alila Hotel in Shanghai exemplifies urban renewal by transforming a single hotel into a mixed-use complex that integrates business, leisure, and vacation experiences [1][8] - The government is emphasizing urban renewal as a key strategy for stabilizing investment and expanding demand, with plans for comprehensive implementation of related policies [9][10] Group 2: "Good House" Initiative - The "Good House" initiative has gained momentum, with the concept being included in the 2025 government work report and the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development developing guidelines for its implementation [2][4] - Various local governments are introducing measures to enhance housing quality, focusing on aspects such as indoor space and customer satisfaction [2][3] - Green Town China has launched a comprehensive "Good House Laboratory," showcasing technologies that improve air quality and water comfort, with updated standards that exceed national requirements [4][6] Group 3: Market Trends - The real estate market is showing signs of stabilization, with new residential sales area declining by 8.1% year-on-year in the first eleven months of 2025 [6][7] - The second-hand housing market is experiencing a recovery, with a 2% increase in transaction volume in key cities compared to the previous year [6][7] - The government is taking measures to support the real estate market, including policies aimed at stabilizing expectations and promoting high-quality development [7][10]

Core Insights - The Hangzhou real estate market experienced a significant decline in new home transactions in 2025, with a total of approximately 62,000 units sold, marking the lowest level in nine years. However, high-end properties priced over 10 million yuan saw robust sales, indicating strong demand in the luxury segment [1][7][14]. New Home Market - New home transaction volume in Hangzhou was about 62,000 units in 2025, down from 73,386 units in 2024, a decrease of over 10,000 units [7]. - The average price for properties sold for over 10 million yuan reached 62,924 yuan per square meter, the highest in nine years, with an average transaction price of 15.44 million yuan [14]. - The top-selling new development was "Binhang Binfeng City," which sold 3,220 units for a total of 5.51 billion yuan, making it one of the top performers nationally due to its high cost-performance ratio [8]. Second-Hand Home Market - The total transaction volume for second-hand homes in Hangzhou was approximately 89,000 units, a 5% decrease from 93,600 units in 2024, but still the second-highest in five years [15]. - The average price of second-hand homes has been declining for five consecutive years, with many properties reverting to 2016-2017 price levels [15]. - Properties priced below 200,000 yuan accounted for 40.9% of total transactions, the highest proportion in eight years, indicating increased affordability in the market [16]. Price Trends - The highest transaction price for second-hand homes reached 61,000 yuan per square meter, with a notable sale of a villa at 1.88 billion yuan, translating to approximately 61,000 yuan per square meter [19]. - The highest average price for high-rise residential properties was 12,000 yuan per square meter, with the most expensive unit priced at 22.5 million yuan [12]. Developer Performance - Binhang Group led the market with total sales of 48.12 billion yuan in 2025, maintaining its position as the top developer in Hangzhou for eight consecutive years [13].

Core Insights - The luxury real estate market in cities like Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Guangzhou has seen a significant surge in 2025, despite a general downturn in the housing market [1] - Notable sales figures include Shanghai's Yihao Courtyard achieving sales of 22.191 billion yuan and Shenzhen's CITIC City Sales exceeding 10 billion yuan in just two hours [1] - Xi'an's luxury market is also thriving, with multiple high-end projects being launched, indicating a strong demand from affluent buyers [1][27] Group 1: Market Performance - In the first 11 months of this year, Xi'an's luxury market is estimated to have sales between 8 billion to 10 billion yuan, with several projects like Jinmao Puyi Dongfang and Qujiang Jinmao Mansion contributing significantly [25][26] - Jinmao Puyi Dongfang alone achieved sales of 2.909 billion yuan, making it one of the top-selling projects in Xi'an [25] - The luxury market's performance is supported by a growing number of high-net-worth families in the region, with 20,200 households having investable assets of over 6 million yuan [33] Group 2: Project Highlights - Jinmao Puyi Gaoxin, a new luxury project in Xi'an, features high starting unit sizes of approximately 212 square meters, with the largest units reaching 340 square meters [4] - The project incorporates unique design elements such as sunken courtyards and high-quality materials, enhancing its appeal to affluent buyers [6][19] - Green City’s Guichuan Dongfang, located in the core area of Xi'an's Olympic Sports District, is positioned as a premium offering with starting unit sizes of 180 square meters and a focus on unique urban resources [12][14] Group 3: Buyer Demographics - The luxury real estate market is not limited to local buyers; it attracts affluent clients from outside Xi'an, reflecting a broader trend seen in major cities [27][30] - High-net-worth families view purchasing luxury properties in core urban areas as a strategic asset allocation, combining lifestyle improvement with value retention [33] - The presence of significant economic resources and urban development in Xi'an enhances the attractiveness of its luxury real estate offerings [30]

Core Viewpoint - The overall performance of real estate companies in 2025 continues to show a bottoming trend, with some companies experiencing significant recovery in their performance. The proportion of companies with year-on-year performance growth is 24%, with 12 companies achieving growth rates exceeding 30% [1][4]. Group 1: Market Performance - The real estate market in 2025 maintains a bottoming trend, with overall sales remaining at low levels. There are 10 companies with sales exceeding 100 billion yuan, 13 companies with sales between 30-100 billion yuan, 42 companies with sales between 10-30 billion yuan, and 35 companies with sales below 10 billion yuan [2]. - Among the 10 companies with sales over 100 billion yuan, only one company, China Jinmao, reported performance growth. In the 13 companies with sales between 30-100 billion yuan, three companies reported growth: Greenland Holdings, China State Construction East, and Bangtai Group [8]. Group 2: Company Performance - A total of 224 companies reported year-on-year performance growth, with 24 companies showing growth. Notably, Bangtai Group's performance surpassed 30 billion yuan for the first time, with a significant year-on-year increase of 79.7% [4][5]. - The companies with the highest sales and their respective year-on-year growth rates include: - Kerry Properties: 227.87 billion yuan, 1646.5% - Jiangshan Wanli Real Estate: 174.50 billion yuan, 731.3% - Fuzhou Jianfa: 88.90 billion yuan, 92.9% - Shanghai Construction: 92.75 billion yuan, 80.6% - Bangtai Group: 303.54 billion yuan, 79.7% [5]. Group 3: State-Owned vs. Private Enterprises - Central state-owned enterprises performed relatively well, with 42.9% of them reporting performance growth. In contrast, only 15.2% of private enterprises and 12.5% of mixed-ownership enterprises reported growth [9][13]. - The proportion of performance growth among various types of real estate companies shows a clear differentiation, with state-owned enterprises leading in growth rates compared to private and mixed-ownership enterprises [13].

以下文章来源于普睿地产研究 ，作者普睿数智研究中心 普睿地产研究 . 涵盖市场、企业等八大研究方向，专注房地产市场发展、房企运营、产品力及多元化与代建课题探究。常规研究成果按日度、周度、月度定期发布，每年 亦推出上百篇重磅专题，为行业提供专业决策参考。 导 读 头部企业强者恒强，投资集中度超七成，其中央企投资保持领先，民企信心随市场筑底不断 修复。 ☉ 文／ 克而瑞深度咨询·普睿数智研究中心 | 4 | 绿城中国 | 1300.0 | | --- | --- | --- | | 5 | 束润置部 | 1243.2 | | 6 | 中国金茂 | 953.8 | | 7 | 越秀地产 | 855.4 | | 8 | 建发房产 | 854.6 | | 9 | 中旅投资 | 703.21 | | 10 | 滨江集团 | 667.8 | | 11 | 中建智地 | 411.7 | | 12 | 保利置业 | 350.4 | | 13 | 武汉城建 | 330.0 | | 14 | 象屿地产 | 295.9 | | 15 | 邦泰集团 | 293.2 | | 16 | 国贸地产 | 269.4 | | 17 | 联发集团 ...

Core Insights - The real estate market continues to show signs of bottoming out, with 10 companies achieving over 100 billion yuan in sales for the year [3] - 24 companies reported year-on-year growth in performance, with some experiencing significant recovery [3] - Central and state-owned enterprises performed well overall, with 42% of them reporting performance growth [3] - High-quality properties and urban renewal have become new focal points, prompting companies to enhance their internal capabilities [3] Company Performance - The top companies by operational amount include: - Greentown China: 251.9 billion yuan - China Overseas Land & Investment: 239.2 billion yuan - Poly Developments: 232.8 billion yuan - China Resources Land: 210.1 billion yuan - China Merchants Shekou: 185.8 billion yuan [5][6] - The top companies by operational area include: - Greentown China: 1,208 million square meters - Poly Developments: 1,126.2 million square meters - China Overseas Land & Investment: 1,044.2 million square meters - Vanke: 950.7 million square meters - China Merchants Shekou: 688 million square meters [5][6] Market Trends - The overall market is characterized by a continued bottoming trend, with a focus on quality properties and urban renewal as key areas for growth [3] - Companies are encouraged to strengthen their internal capabilities to adapt to changing market conditions [3]

2026.01. 01 本文字数：3537，阅读时长大约6分钟 作者 | 第一财经 孙梦凡 自2021年下半年以来，房地产本轮调整已有四年有余。刚刚过去的2025年，是行业迈入企稳修复的 关键一年，也是政策从"托底纾困"转向全面提振信心、激活住房需求的一年。 这一年，行业多项关键数据，显示房地产"止跌回稳"出现一定成效。机构数据显示，2025年商品房 成交规模降幅较上年收窄，预计全年销售面积约8.9亿平方米、销售金额8.4万亿元，其中四季度百城 新房成交面积环比增长4%、12月环比增长18%。 2025年，房地产行业的政策主基调是清理限制性措施、促进住房需求释放。 根据中指研究院监测，截至12月1日，全国有超210省市（县）出台政策约560条，政策优化频次较 2024年有所下降，主要围绕激活需求、优化供给两方面落地具体举措。 楼市情绪的真实"温度计"——二手房交易市场，今年则真正进入"市场化深水区"，新房市场与二手房 形成泾渭分明的运行体系，价格、客户等特征均大幅分化。受挂牌量高企等因素影响，存量房价格持 续下调，刚需房源成为交易主力，并带动成交量提升。 "在一系列政策干预下，2025年住宅市场暂时遏制了螺旋 ...