证券研究报告 2026 年 01 月 25 日 湘财证券研究所 根据 Wind 数据，本周申万一级行业医药生物下跌 0.39%，涨幅排名位列申 万 31 个一级行业第 27 位。沪深 300 指数下跌 0.62%，医药跑赢沪深 300 指数 0.23 个百分点。申万医药生物二级子行业医疗服务 II 报收 7280.46 点，下跌 2.17%；中药 II 报收 6350.32 点，上涨 0.89%；化学制药Ⅱ报收 13328.75 点，下跌 1.11%；生物制品Ⅱ报收 6427.70 点，上涨 0.07%；医 药商业Ⅱ报收 5457.63 点，上涨 4.26%；医疗器械 II 报收 6881.47 点，上 涨 0.30%。细分板块来看，医疗服务跌幅较大。 根据 Wind 数据，从医疗服务板块公司的表现来看，表现居前的公司有： 诺禾致源（+11.5%）、新里程（+9.4%）、迪安诊断（+8.2%）、ST 中珠（+7.1%）、 光正眼科（+6.2%）；表现靠后的公司有：博腾股份（-6.9%）、诚达药业 （-6.6%）、药明康德（-6.4%）、美迪西（-4.8%）、成都先导（-4.5%）。从 个股涨跌幅来看 CXO ...

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive outlook for the innovative drug sector, indicating it will continue to be a core investment direction in 2026 due to the maturation of the industry chain and normalization of medical insurance negotiations [4]. Core Insights - The public fund's pharmaceutical holdings decreased to 8.11% in Q4 2025, down by 1.66 percentage points (pp) from the previous quarter. Excluding actively managed pharmaceutical funds, the holdings dropped to 3.90%, a decrease of 1.36pp [11][12]. - The innovative drug ETF reached a scale of 100.62 billion yuan in Q4, accounting for 13.11% of the pharmaceutical fund, which is a slight decrease of 1.35pp [13][15]. - The CXO sector saw a decline in holdings due to geopolitical disturbances, while the medical device sector benefited from innovations like brain-computer interfaces and surgical robots, leading to an increase in holdings [14][17]. - The report highlights the acquisition of PART by GSK for $2.2 billion to strengthen its position in the IgE antibody market, with the core product Ozureprubart showing significant market potential [2][31]. - The oral weight loss drug Wegovy has shown strong early commercial progress, with retail prescriptions reaching approximately 3,071 in the first four days post-launch, nearly three times that of its competitor Zepbound [2][31]. Summary by Sections Pharmaceutical Sector - The report indicates a significant decrease in public fund holdings in the pharmaceutical sector, with a noted resilience in the innovative drug segment [11][14]. - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on leading companies with core pipeline competitiveness and global layout capabilities for investment [4]. Medical Devices - The introduction of new pricing guidelines for auxiliary medical services is expected to accelerate the adoption of innovative products in the medical device sector [3][17]. - The report suggests monitoring domestic leading companies in this sector for increasing product penetration [3]. Drugstores - The report discusses the potential for leading drugstore companies to increase market share, supported by recent government policies promoting high-quality development in the retail pharmaceutical industry [3][17]. - Specific companies like Yifeng Pharmacy and Dazhenglin are highlighted as having low valuations and significant cost reduction achievements [3]. CXO and Pharmaceutical Supply Chain - Several CXO companies have released optimistic earnings forecasts for 2025, indicating a clear upward trend in industry prosperity [2][31]. - The report recommends active investment in this sector due to the positive signals regarding industry growth [2][31].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The pharmaceutical and biotechnology sector is expected to experience a cyclical recovery in raw material prices for animal health products in 2026, following a prolonged decline due to oversupply and weak downstream demand [5][49] - Heparin and iodine contrast agent raw materials are currently at the bottom of their price cycles, with heparin prices declining sharply in Q4 2023 due to market pressures, while iodine prices have seen a recent recovery driven by strong demand from other industries [6][51] Summary by Sections Industry Trends - The pharmaceutical and biotechnology sector saw a decline of 0.39% in the third week of January 2026, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 0.23 percentage points, ranking 27th among 31 sub-industries [7][58] - The offline pharmacy segment experienced the highest increase, rising by 9.66%, while the medical research outsourcing segment faced the largest decline, dropping by 3.96% [7][61] Price Trends - The average price of florfenicol has decreased from the range of 400-700 RMB/kg to a recent range of 100-200 RMB/kg, indicating a significant drop to historical lows [5][47] - Heparin API prices are stabilizing, while iodine raw material prices are expected to rise in 2025 due to previous supply constraints [51][55] Recommended Stocks - Monthly recommended stocks include WuXi AppTec, 3SBio, and CSPC Pharmaceutical Group, among others [8] - Weekly recommended stocks include Kanglong Chemical, WuXi AppTec, and Aopumai [8]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The pharmaceutical and biotechnology sector is expected to experience a cyclical recovery in raw material prices for animal health products in 2026, following a prolonged decline due to oversupply and weak downstream demand [5][49] - Heparin and iodine contrast agent raw materials are currently at the bottom of their price cycles, with heparin prices declining sharply in Q4 2023 due to market pressures, while iodine prices have seen a recent recovery driven by strong demand from other industries [6][51] Summary by Sections Industry Trends - The pharmaceutical and biotechnology sector saw a decline of 0.39% in the third week of January 2026, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 0.23 percentage points, ranking 27th among 31 sub-industries [7][58] - The offline pharmacy segment experienced the highest increase, rising by 9.66%, while the medical research outsourcing segment faced the largest decline, dropping by 3.96% [7][61] Price Trends - The average price of florfenicol has decreased from the range of 400-700 RMB/kg to a recent range of 100-200 RMB/kg, indicating a significant drop to historical lows [5][47] - Heparin raw material prices have stabilized after a period of decline, while iodine raw material prices are expected to rise again in 2025 due to increased demand [51][55] Recommended Stocks - Monthly recommended stocks include WuXi AppTec, 3SBio, and CSPC Pharmaceutical Group, while weekly recommendations feature companies like Kanglong Chemical and Yao Ming He Lian [8]

Core Viewpoint - The efficiency of Chinese innovative pharmaceutical companies in research and development is putting pressure on American firms, leading to a shift in strategy where multinational companies are cutting internal R&D budgets to invest in Chinese companies' pipelines [1][7]. Group 1: JPM Conference Insights - The 2026 JPM conference saw a significant presence of Chinese innovative pharmaceutical executives and investors, reflecting a positive outlook compared to previous years, with multinational companies openly expressing interest in Chinese assets [2][4]. - Chinese companies are no longer satisfied with merely licensing patents; they seek deeper involvement in clinical development and commercialization in international markets [3][10]. - The FDA's officials acknowledged the R&D efficiency of Chinese companies and suggested using AI to improve approval processes, indicating a more collaborative approach rather than a protectionist stance [3][6]. Group 2: Market Trends and Stock Performance - Following a surge in business development (BD) transactions in 2025, the stock prices of Chinese innovative pharmaceutical companies saw a significant increase, but there was a market correction starting in September 2025, with the Hang Seng Innovation Drug Index dropping over 20% by January 2026 [3][12]. - The participation of seven Chinese pharmaceutical companies in the main stage of JPM is a sign of increasing recognition and influence in the international market [12]. Group 3: Strategic Shifts in Collaboration - There is a growing trend among Chinese pharmaceutical companies to engage in deeper collaborations, such as the NewCo model, which allows for shared operations and deeper partnerships with American firms [10][11]. - American biotech companies are considering establishing NewCo in China to leverage the country's advantages in R&D efficiency and cost [11]. Group 4: Competitive Landscape and Future Outlook - The competitive landscape is shifting, with Chinese companies focusing on unmet clinical needs and exploring new therapeutic areas beyond traditional targets, such as liver diseases [11]. - Multinational companies are actively seeking new opportunities due to impending patent cliffs, with significant interest in mergers and acquisitions to bolster their pipelines [14][15]. - PwC's report indicates that patent expirations could risk $47 billion in drug sales over the next four years, prompting increased acquisition activities in the pharmaceutical sector [16].

Core Insights - The 2026 JPM conference showcased a positive outlook for Chinese innovative pharmaceutical companies, with significant interest from multinational corporations in collaboration opportunities [2][3][4] - Chinese companies are shifting from merely licensing patents to deeper involvement in clinical development and commercialization in international markets [3][8] - The FDA's stance at JPM was relatively moderate, acknowledging the R&D efficiency of Chinese companies and suggesting improvements in approval processes using AI [3][6] Group 1: Conference Overview - The JPM conference, held in San Francisco, attracted numerous founders, executives, and investors from Chinese innovative pharmaceutical companies, indicating a vibrant atmosphere compared to previous years [2][5] - The event has evolved from a small gathering to a major industry benchmark, with participation from nearly all multinational pharmaceutical companies [5][10] - The number of attendees increased significantly in 2026, reflecting a more optimistic market sentiment compared to the previous year [5][10] Group 2: Market Trends - The Chinese innovative drug sector experienced a substantial stock price increase from March to August 2025, driven by business development (BD) transactions and foreign capital inflow, but faced a market correction afterward [4][11] - The interest in Chinese assets is growing, with many multinational companies expressing intentions for mergers and acquisitions (M&A) and BD transactions [11][12] - The trend of Chinese companies seeking deeper engagement in global markets is evident, moving beyond simple patent licensing to collaborative operational models [8][9] Group 3: Regulatory Environment - FDA officials at JPM highlighted the efficiency of Chinese clinical trials, with China completing Phase I trials in four weeks compared to much longer timelines in the U.S. [6][12] - The FDA's comments suggested a focus on optimizing clinical trial approval processes rather than emphasizing protectionist policies [5][6] Group 4: Future Outlook - The absence of major transactions at JPM 2026 was noted, but many multinational companies expressed a willingness to explore significant deals in the near future [11][12] - The upcoming expiration of patents for several blockbuster drugs is expected to drive increased M&A activity as companies seek to replenish their pipelines [12][13] - The trend of U.S. biotech firms considering establishing operations in China to leverage R&D efficiencies is emerging, indicating a shift in cross-border collaboration dynamics [10][11]

Core Insights - The Hong Kong IPO market continues its strong momentum from the previous year, with over 350 companies currently waiting to list as of early 2026 [1][3] - In the first three weeks of the new year, Hong Kong has completed 11 IPOs, raising approximately $4 billion [1] Group 1: IPO Market Dynamics - As of early 2026, the number of companies waiting to list has increased from 316 at the end of 2025 to over 350 within a few weeks [3] - The surge in IPO applications is ongoing, with 16 companies submitting applications to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange in the first seven working days of January 2026 [3] - The IPO pipeline includes leading companies from various sectors, including technology and traditional industries, with notable names such as Ruipai Pet Medical and Anker Innovations [5] Group 2: Geographic and Sectoral Trends - Companies from both first-tier and lower-tier cities in China are actively pursuing listings in Hong Kong, with three companies from Henan province advancing their IPO plans within a week [5] - The IPO market is characterized by a concentration of leading firms across emerging and traditional sectors, with over 70% of listed companies in 2025 coming from information technology, biomedicine, new energy, and high-end manufacturing [12] Group 3: Historical Performance and Future Projections - In 2025, Hong Kong regained its position as the top global IPO market, with 119 IPOs and a total fundraising amount of 2858 billion HKD, marking a 68% increase from 2024 [14] - Predictions for 2026 suggest that the IPO fundraising scale could exceed 300 billion HKD, with estimates ranging from 320 billion to 350 billion HKD and around 150 to 180 companies expected to successfully list [14][12] Group 4: Quality and Market Sentiment - The Hong Kong Stock Exchange emphasizes the importance of IPO quality, acknowledging that the recent surge in applications has led to some lower-quality submissions [16] - There is a growing trend of differentiation in the market, where larger projects and industry leaders are more likely to attract long-term funding, while smaller projects may face challenges based on market conditions and performance [16]

净利润数值方面，共有106家上市公司预计2025年归属于上市公司股东的净利润下限超过1亿元，49家预 计超过3亿元，33家预计超过5亿元，13家预计超过10亿元。紫金矿业、药明康德、洛阳钼业、立讯精 密、盐湖股份等公司预计2025年归属于上市公司股东的净利润数值居前。 A股上市公司业绩预告加速披露。Wind数据显示，截至1月23日16时，A股共有710家上市公司对外披露 2025年全年业绩预告，284家预喜，预喜比例为40%。从报喜的上市公司所在行业角度看，有色金属、 半导体、生物医药、硬件设备、化工、汽车与零配件等行业表现亮眼。 近70家企业净利同比增逾100% 已披露2025年全年业绩预告的710家上市公司中，略增43家，扭亏57家，续盈4家，预增180家，已披露 业绩预告的上市公司总体较为分化。 净利润增长幅度方面，剔除扭亏影响，共有295家上市公司预计2025年归属于上市公司股东的净利润同 比增长幅度下限超过10%，237家预计超过30%，183家预计超过50%，67家预计超过100%，南方精工、 上海谊众、金安国纪、深南电A、利民股份、上汽集团等公司预计2025年归属于上市公司股东的净利润 同比增幅 ...

Core Insights - A-share listed companies are accelerating the disclosure of performance forecasts for 2025, with 710 companies having reported, of which 284 are optimistic, resulting in a positive forecast ratio of 40% [1] Group 1: Performance Forecasts - Among the 710 companies that disclosed forecasts, 43 expect slight increases, 57 have turned losses into profits, 4 will maintain profitability, and 180 anticipate profit growth [2] - 295 companies expect a net profit growth of over 10%, with 237 expecting over 30%, 183 over 50%, and 67 over 100% [2] - Notable companies with high expected net profit growth include Southern Precision, Shanghai Yizhong, and SAIC Motor, with Southern Precision projecting a net profit of 300 million to 370 million yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 1130% to 1417% [2] Group 2: Industry Performance - The industries showing strong performance include non-ferrous metals, biomedicine, semiconductors, hardware equipment, chemicals, and automotive parts [4] - In the non-ferrous metals sector, companies like Xianglu Tungsten, Zijin Mining, and Northern Rare Earth are performing well due to rising product prices and improved downstream demand [4] - Xianglu Tungsten expects a net profit of 12.5 million to 18 million yuan, significantly turning losses into profits, supported by rising tungsten prices and improved market conditions [4] Group 3: Specific Company Insights - WuXi AppTec anticipates a revenue of approximately 45.456 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of about 15.84%, and a net profit of around 19.15 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of approximately 102.65% [3] - Zhongke Blue News expects a revenue of 1.83 billion to 1.85 billion yuan, with a net profit growth of 366.51% to 376.51% [5] - Shanghai Yizhong forecasts a net profit of 60 million to 70 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 760.18% to 903.54%, driven by the inclusion of its core product in the national medical insurance directory [6] Group 4: Underperforming Industries - The real estate, textile and apparel, and photovoltaic industries are facing performance pressures, with only one out of 31 real estate companies reporting profits [7] - In the photovoltaic sector, companies like Tongwei Co., TCL Zhonghuan, and Trina Solar are expected to incur losses due to rising costs of key raw materials [7] - Retail companies are experiencing significant performance divergence, with many optimizing store layouts and closing unprofitable locations to enhance overall profitability [7]

Core Insights - A total of 710 A-share listed companies have disclosed their 2025 annual performance forecasts, with 284 companies expected to report positive results, resulting in a positive forecast ratio of 40% [1] Group 1: Performance Highlights - Among the 710 companies, 43 reported slight increases, 57 turned losses into profits, 4 maintained profitability, and 180 projected profit increases [2] - 295 companies expect a net profit growth of over 10%, with 237 anticipating over 30%, 183 over 50%, and 67 over 100% [2] - Notable companies with significant expected net profit growth include Southern Precision, Shanghai Yizhong, Jin'an Guoji, Shenzhen Nande A, Limin Co., and SAIC Motor [2] Group 2: Industry Performance - The industries showing strong performance include non-ferrous metals, biomedicine, semiconductors, hardware equipment, chemicals, and automotive parts [3] - In the non-ferrous metals sector, companies like Xianglu Tungsten, Zhenghai Magnetic Materials, Jinli Permanent Magnet, Northern Rare Earth, Chifeng Gold, Zijin Mining, and others have performed well due to rising product prices and improved downstream demand [3][4] Group 3: Specific Company Forecasts - Southern Precision expects a net profit of 300 million to 370 million yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 1130% to 1417%, primarily due to fair value changes from investments [2] - WuXi AppTec anticipates a revenue of approximately 45.456 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of about 15.84%, and a net profit of around 19.15 billion yuan, a growth of approximately 102.65% [3] - Xianglu Tungsten forecasts a net profit of 12.5 million to 18 million yuan, significantly turning losses into profits due to improved market conditions and cost control [4] Group 4: Challenges in Certain Industries - The real estate sector is under pressure, with only one out of 31 companies reporting profits, while most are facing significant losses [7] - In the photovoltaic industry, companies like Tongwei Co., TCL Zhonghuan, Trina Solar, JinkoSolar, and LONGi Green Energy are expected to report varying degrees of losses due to rising costs of key raw materials [7]