Group 1: Market Performance - The A-share liquor sector experienced a significant surge, with a rise of 9.68% on January 29, leading the market performance for the day [1][2] - The oil and gas extraction and service sector also saw a notable increase of 8.18%, with a total transaction volume of 32.31 billion [2] - The precious metals sector rose by 8.04%, with a transaction volume of 70.62 billion, indicating strong market interest [2] Group 2: Energy and Petrochemical Sector Dynamics - The energy and petrochemical sector's rise began in early January 2026, with domestic crude oil futures rebounding from 411 yuan/barrel to 475 yuan/barrel, a 15% increase [4] - The oil and gas extraction and service sector has accumulated a remarkable increase of 44.22% year-to-date, ranking second in market performance, only behind precious metals [7] - The petrochemical ETF (159731) has shown a cumulative increase of 14.71% since the beginning of the year, reflecting strong investor interest [9] Group 3: Geopolitical and Economic Influences - The recent surge in the petrochemical sector is driven by escalating geopolitical tensions, particularly between the U.S. and Iran, raising concerns over oil supply stability [11] - The market has priced in a risk premium of $3-8 per barrel due to fears of potential disruptions in oil supply from Iran, which produces approximately 3.3 million barrels per day [11] - The classic rotation pattern in commodity markets, where precious metals lead, followed by industrial metals and then energy, is being validated again [14][16] Group 4: Agricultural Sector Insights - The agricultural sector is expected to gain market attention as commodity prices rise, driven by increased costs in agricultural production due to higher energy prices [17][24] - The CPI and food prices have shown signs of recovery, with the CPI rising by 0.8% year-on-year, indicating a potential shift in consumer price dynamics [18] - The agricultural ETF (516810) tracks a comprehensive index covering the entire agricultural value chain, which may benefit from the rising commodity prices [26] Group 5: Industry Outlook - The petrochemical industry is at a turning point, with new policies aimed at preventing excessive competition and improving profitability [22] - The capital expenditure ratios in the refining and chemical sectors are showing a trend towards conservatism, indicating a strategic shift among companies [23] - The anticipated recovery in the petrochemical sector is supported by both geopolitical factors and the broader commodity market dynamics, suggesting a favorable outlook for industry leaders [24][25]

Group 1 - The report indicates that the A-share market is experiencing a typical spring rally characterized by initial strength followed by stabilization and structural differentiation, with major indices recording positive returns as of January 28, 2026 [6] - The average daily trading volume in January reached 3.04 trillion yuan, an increase of 1.16 trillion yuan month-on-month, indicating a significant influx of new capital and a loose liquidity environment driving the index upward [2] - Regulatory measures, including raising the minimum margin requirement from 80% to 100%, have led to fluctuations in market sentiment and a deceleration in the index's upward momentum [3] Group 2 - The report highlights that technology assets are experiencing a rotation between thematic and cyclical investments, with thematic investments (e.g., commercial aerospace, AI applications) initially favored but cooling off due to increased margin requirements [4] - In the cyclical sector, non-ferrous metals, basic chemicals, and oil & petrochemicals have shown strong performance driven by three factors: demand from high-end manufacturing, proactive supply-side adjustments, and external geopolitical risks [4] - The report anticipates a structural market characterized by a focus on "resources + technology + overseas expansion," with low-risk preference assets potentially outperforming in certain phases [5] Group 3 - The investment strategy emphasizes focusing on "external demand cyclical + AI industry chain," highlighting the potential for global manufacturing recovery to support resource prices and opportunities for Chinese manufacturing to expand overseas [5] - The AI industry remains a clear investment theme, with a shift from thematic to performance-driven investments, particularly in areas with supply shortages such as power supply and semiconductor sectors [5] - The report recommends a selection of stocks across various sectors, including Invesco's Nonferrous ETF, Dongpeng Beverage, and Huazhong Precision, among others, reflecting a diversified investment approach [10]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - The PVC market is expected to oscillate. The supply side has a slight decrease in the PVC operating rate, and the inventory pressure is still high. The demand side, affected by the real - estate adjustment, has low downstream initiative to stock up. Although there is a phenomenon of rush - export, the upward driving force of PVC itself is temporarily insufficient [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - The calcium carbide price in the upstream northwest region is stable. The PVC operating rate decreased by 0.89 percentage points to 78.74%, being at a neutral level in recent years. The downstream is having pre - holiday promotions, with the downstream operating rate increasing by 0.95 percentage points, but the downstream's initiative to stock up is low. Due to the cancellation of export tax rebates, there is a rush - export phenomenon, and the PVC export orders have increased significantly. The social inventory continues to increase and is still at a high level. The real - estate is in the adjustment stage, and the improvement still needs time [1] Futures and Spot Market - The PVC2605 contract oscillated with a decrease in positions. The lowest price was 4,860 yuan/ton, the highest was 4,928 yuan/ton, and the final closing price was 4,895 yuan/ton, with a decline of 0.37%. The position volume decreased by 23,946 lots to 1,015,893 lots [2] Basis - On January 29th, the mainstream price of calcium carbide - based PVC in the East China region dropped to 4,685 yuan/ton. The futures closing price of the V2605 contract was 4,895 yuan/ton. The current basis was - 210 yuan/ton, strengthening by 8 yuan/ton, and the basis was at a relatively low level [3] Fundamental Tracking - Supply side: Affected by companies like Fujian Wanhua and Shaanxi Jintai, the PVC operating rate decreased by 0.89 percentage points to 78.74%, being at a neutral level in recent years. New production capacities of several companies were put into production or in trial production in 2025 [4] - Demand side: The real - estate is in the adjustment stage. In 2025 from January to December, the national real - estate development investment was 827.88 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 17.2%. The sales area, new construction area, construction area, and completion area all had significant year - on - year declines. As of the week of January 25th, the commercial housing transaction area in 30 large - and medium - sized cities decreased by 7.8% week - on - week, being near the lowest level in recent years [5] - Inventory: As of the week of January 22nd, the PVC social inventory increased by 2.92% week - on - week to 1.1775 million tons, 57.01% higher than the same period last year, and the social inventory continued to increase and was still at a high level [6]

开门红！国内化工产品一片"涨"声！ 近期部分化工品价格持续上涨，一些产品甚至达到近年高点。硫磺、对二甲苯(PX)、PTA、环氧丙烷、 苯乙烯、丁二烯等产品轮番上涨。期货市场上，化工板块同样涨幅居前，丁二烯橡胶、乙二醇、苯乙 烯、PTA、塑料、瓶片等多个化工期货品种强势领涨。 在A股市场上，继贵金属和工业金属之后，沉寂已久的化工板块在2026年开年强势逆袭，大宗商品"牛 市归来"的共识愈发强烈。万华化学（600309）(600309.SH)、华鲁恒升（600426）(600426.SH)、荣盛石 化（002493）(002493.SZ)、东方盛虹（000301）(000301.SZ)等化工龙头公司近期持续大涨，成交活 跃，体现出投资者对于化工行业景气度回升的强烈预期。 微观层面，政策性因素是近期化工产品行情的催化剂。近日，财政部与税务总局联合印发《关于调整光 伏等产品出口退税政策的公告》。根据公告，自2026年4月1日起，我国将取消249项产品的增值税出口 退税。产品涵盖化工、塑料、建材、电子及新能源产品，其中化工行业产品涉及甲醇、BDO、聚醚等 多个产品。例如聚醚多元醇的增值税出口退税率将从13%正式下调至0 ...

巡访标杆企业，洞见产业未来 ——2026起点圆柱电池全国行持续进行 中 ！ 在新能源电池技术路线多元竞合的行业背景下，圆柱电池凭借其结构特性与场景适配潜力，再度成为行业聚焦的核心赛道。从产品尺寸维度来 看，除经典的 18/21 系列外，行业已衍生出 30、32、37、40、46、60、66 等多款大圆柱电池系列，而大圆柱电池凭借与细分应用场景的 高度适配性，正成为推动圆柱电池赛道市场拓展的核心驱动力。 当前，各型号圆柱电池百花齐放，大圆柱电池哪一直径系列具备核心竞争优势、行业能否构建标准化发展体系，成为赛道发展的关键议题。深 耕圆柱电池领域的创新型企业力华电源，对此给出了明确的判断与答案：公司坚定布局 46 系列大圆柱电池，持续在技术攻坚、市场布局及行 业标准化推进等维度聚力发力。 1 月 23 日，起点锂电总经理邱嘉胜率起点圆柱电池专项巡访调研团到访 北方标志性电池企业 —— 烟台力华电源科技有限公司 （ 以下简 称： 力华电源 ） ，与公司 副总经理 、 研究 院院长 王茂范 博士 展开深度 对话 ，围绕企业战略布局、技术创新方向与未来发展规划等核心 议题，进行了全方位、深层次的交流与探讨。 王茂范表示， ...

万华化学集团股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）于 2025 年 4 月 12 日召开的 第九届董事会 2025 年第一次会议审议通过了《关于申请非金融企业债务融资工具 （DFI）到期继续注册的议案》，并经公司于 2025 年 5 月 15 日召开的 2024 年度股 东大会表决通过，同意公司向中国银行间市场交易商协会申请到期继续注册非金融 企业债务融资工具（DFI），并在中国境内发行超短期融资券、短期融资券、中期 票据、永续票据、资产支持票据、绿色债务融资工具等产品。 公司于 2025 年 6 月 24 日收到中国银行间市场交易商协会核发的《接受注册通 知书》（中市协注[2025]DFI36 号），中国银行间市场交易商协会接受公司债务融 资工具注册，注册自通知书落款之日起 2 年内有效，在注册有效期内可分期发行超 短期融资券、短期融资券、中期票据、永续票据、资产支持票据、绿色债务融资工 具等产品。 公司根据自身资金计划安排和银行间市场情况，于 2026 年 1 月 27 日在全国银 行间市场发行了 2026 年度第一期科技创新债券，募集资金已于 2026 年 1 月 28 日 到账。发行结果如下： 证券代码：6 ...

聚聚聚聚聚聚聚聚 2025/1/28 作者：汤剑林 从业资格证号：F03117796 交易咨询证号：Z0019347 研究联系方式：tangjianlin@zjtfqh.com 我公司依法已获取期货交易咨询业务资格 审核：李文涛 交易咨询证号：Z0015640 短期观点总结 | 聚烯烃 | 定性 | 解析 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | PP/PE近期持续反弹，一方面由于12月价格大幅回落后价格修复性反弹，另一方面由于原料价格上涨支撑带 | | | | 动PP/PE价格，且化工市场情绪整体修复，整体处于上行节奏，PP/PE作为估值偏低品种存在补涨的需求，但 | | 核心观点 | 中性 | 相对其他化工品涨幅较小，当前供需逻辑偏弱。预期来看，春节前下游需求淡季，且月底开始部分装置重启， | | | | 供应存在增量，春节期间累库较为明确，供需预期仍偏弱，但短期逻辑主要还是情绪主导，叠加地缘不确定 | | | | 性仍在，预计PP/PE偏强震荡，关注化工市场情绪变化。 | | 供应 | PE偏多 | 短期检修偏多，但后期计划逐渐重启，供应端存在增量。 | | | PP偏多 | | | 需求 ...

Core Viewpoint - The "DT New Leaf Award" is a prestigious award dedicated to recognizing and showcasing outstanding products and companies in the bio-based industry, set to be announced at the 11th Bio-based Conference [2][59]. Group 1: Award Overview - The 4th DT New Leaf Award aims to discover and highlight pioneering forces in the bio-based industry, focusing on renewable biomass and green technologies to drive low-carbon innovation and sustainable development [2]. - The first round of applications for the award will close on February 10, 2026, offering exclusive promotional opportunities for participants [2][62]. Group 2: Participating Companies - Over 30 listed and representative companies have registered for the 2026 DT New Leaf Award, including notable firms such as Wanhua Chemical, Guanghua Weiye, and Shuangqiang Technology [3]. - Companies are categorized based on their focus areas, including key chemicals, biodegradable materials, and innovative applications, showcasing a diverse range of products and solutions [3]. Group 3: Company Highlights - Wanhua Chemical is recognized as a leading global chemical new materials company and has established a bio-based polyurethane industry chain [7]. - Guanghua Weiye, a leader in 3D printing materials, plans to further its market presence with an upcoming listing on the Beijing Stock Exchange [8]. - Lif Biological is a global leader in PEF & FDCA, with a significant investment of 1 billion yuan in a production line expected to yield 15,000 tons of FDCA annually [11]. Group 4: Innovations and Products - Wanhua Chemical's PCDL product, made from carbon dioxide, demonstrates excellent mechanical properties and is nominated for the "Innovation Application Award" [10]. - Heng Carbon Technology's PDO production technology achieves near-zero carbon emissions and has a production capacity of 15,000 tons per year [14]. - Sugar Energy Technology has completed the construction of a 10,000-ton HMF production line, expected to be operational by mid-2026 [16]. Group 5: Environmental Impact and Sustainability - Companies like Zhengzhou Haosen Biological and Jun'an Green Materials are focusing on non-grain bio-based materials and have initiated large-scale production lines to promote low-carbon solutions [22][20]. - The DT New Leaf Award emphasizes the importance of sustainable practices and innovations in the bio-based sector, encouraging companies to develop environmentally friendly products [2][59].

截至1月29日14:10，石化ETF（159731）跌0.38%，持仓股中三棵树、浙江龙盛、荣盛石化等个股领 张。从资金净流入方面来看，石化ETF连续16个交易日获得资金净流入，累计"吸金"8.38亿元。石化 ETF最新份额达11.06亿份，最新规模11.66亿元，均创成立以来新高。 工业和信息化部、国家发展改革委等五部门近日联合印发《关于开展零碳工厂建设工作的指导意见》。 自2026年起，遴选一批零碳工厂，做好标杆引领；到2027年，在汽车、锂电池、光伏、电子电器、轻 工、机械、算力设施等行业领域，培育建设一批零碳工厂；到2030年，逐步拓展至钢铁、有色金属、石 化化工、建材、纺织等行业领域，探索传统高载能产业脱碳新路径。"十五五"碳排放双控下化工行业绿 色转型加速，利好行业能效领跑龙头。 方正证券认为，对化企而言，一方面未来部分高能耗或高碳排放子行业的供给侧增量存量均有政策约 束，另一方面，随着碳排放权交易市场的扩围，碳配额制度有望重塑部分行业成本曲线，加速落后产能 出清，长期利好行业能效领跑龙头。 石化ETF（159731）及其联接基金（017855/017856）紧密跟踪中证石化产业指数，受基础化工和 ...

化工行业ETF易方达（516570，场外联接A/C: 020104/020105）一键打包三桶油、万华化学等石油石 化、基础化工产业龙头，跟踪的中证石化产业指数指数构成接近于石化化工板块中哑铃策略标的，同时 涵盖高股息+高成长成份券，2023年以来收益表现在可比化工行业指数中保持领先。 截至2026年1月29日 13:38，化工行业ETF易方达(516570)盘中换手40.82%，成交2.70亿元，市场交投活 跃。 截至1月28日，化工行业ETF易方达(516570)最新规模、最新份额均创成立以来新高。 从资金净流入方面来看，化工行业ETF易方达(516570)近9天获得连续资金净流入，最高单日获得 9709.10万元净流入，合计"吸金"3.77亿元。 东方财富证券认为，2026年，石油化工行业面临宏观油价博弈与国内产业深刻变革的双重背景。一方 面，原油市场在供需基本面趋弱与地缘风险事件的拉锯下宽幅震荡；另一方面，国内产业在"十五五"规 划与"反内卷"政策推动下，正经历供给侧改革与价值重塑，投资机会转向政策驱动和格局改善带来的结 构性机遇。 化工行业ETF易方达(516570)管理+托管费率0.15%+0.0 ...