2025年07月17日 星期四 商品期货早班车 招商期货 黄金市场 招商评论 贵 金 市场表现：周三贵金属价格大幅震荡，市场传闻美联储主席鲍威尔将很快被特朗普解雇，引发金融市场震荡， 黄金盘中一度上涨超过 1%。 属 基本面：美联储官员威廉姆斯表示，预计关税对通胀的影响将在未来几个月加大，这使得美联储当前的限制 性政策立场"完全合适"；韩国政府据称正在考虑就部分农产品进口限制作出"战略性让步"，以换取与美国达 成更广泛贸易协议的空间；数据显示，美国 6 月 PPI 同比 2.3%，显著低于预期的 2.5%，这是 2024 年 9 月 以来的最低同比涨幅，前值从 2.6%上修至 2.7%，环比 0%，低于预期 0.2%，前值从 0.1%上修至 0.3%。国 内黄金 ETF 前一交易日流入，COMEX 黄金库存 1143 吨，维持不变；上期所黄金库存 21 吨，继续微增，伦 敦 6 月黄金库存 8774 吨；上期所白银库存 1212 吨，减少 10 吨，金交所白银库存上周库存 1326 吨，增加 7 吨，COMEX 白银库存 15447 吨，增加 1 吨；伦敦 6 月白银库存增加 421 吨至 23788 吨；印 ...

2025年07月16日 星期三 商品期货早班车 招商期货 期货研究 | | 海外 0-3 月差 5.6 美元/吨 Con 结构，华南、华东对 2508 合约 40 元/吨贴水，2508 合约 30 元/吨升水。社会 | | --- | --- | | | 库存 7 月 14 日 9.31 万吨，较 7 月 10 日累库 0.28 万吨 | | | 基本面：供应端，随着前期进口矿的集中到货，冶炼厂原料库存相对宽松，叠加矿加工费继续上调，炼厂维 | | | 持宽松预期。消费端整体维持走弱，月差 Con 结构扩大，各地升水下滑背景下，若无较大宏观影响，则预计 | | | 整体仍以偏弱运行为主。 | | | 交易策略：供增需减背景下，及宏观多头情绪有所收敛，锌价上方承压明显，建议逢高抛空。 | | | 风险提示：国内需求超预期，矿端放量不及预期。 | | | 市场表现：昨日铅 2507 合约较前一交易日收盘价-0.85%，收至 16,885 元/吨。 国内 0-3 月差 80 元/吨 Con。 | | | LME0-3 月差 32.8 美元/吨 Con，华东贴水 30 元/吨，精废价差 25 元/吨。社会库存 7 月 ...

Group 1: Precious Metals - Market performance: Last Friday, precious metal prices rose, and silver prices soared due to expectations of additional tariffs [1]. - Fundamental factors: China and the US foreign ministers met in Kuala Lumpur, agreeing to strengthen communication and dialogue. Trump announced a 30% tariff on Mexico and the EU starting August 1st. Fed Chairman Powell might consider resigning. Domestic gold ETFs had outflows, and inventories in various locations changed [1]. - Trading strategy: For gold, considering the unchanged de - dollarization logic, it is recommended to go long. For silver, short - term risk - avoidance is advised with long positions closed, but in the long - term, industrial silver use is turning downward [1]. Group 2: Base Metals Copper - Market performance: On Friday, copper prices oscillated weakly [2]. - Fundamental factors: Trump unexpectedly increased tariffs on most countries, leading to lower market risk appetite. After the proposed 50% tariff on copper on August 1st, London and domestic inventories increased. The long - term copper price has upward momentum due to the tight copper mine situation and global fiscal expansion expectations [2]. - Trading strategy: Pay attention to low - level buying opportunities [2]. Aluminum - Market performance: On Friday, the closing price of the electrolytic aluminum 2508 contract decreased by 0.02% compared to the previous trading day [2]. - Fundamental factors: Supply - side, electrolytic aluminum plants maintained high - load production with an increase in weekly operating capacity. Demand - side, it is the traditional consumption off - season, and the weekly aluminum product start - up rate decreased [2]. - Trading strategy: The domestic aluminum inventory is at a relatively low level, supporting the price. However, due to macro uncertainties and weak downstream demand, the price is expected to oscillate at a high level. It is recommended to wait and see [2]. Alumina - Market performance: On Friday, the closing price of the alumina 2509 contract decreased by 2.83% compared to the previous trading day [3]. - Fundamental factors: Supply - side, alumina plants' production was stable. Demand - side, electrolytic aluminum plants maintained high - load production [3]. - Trading strategy: Some northern alumina plants are in the maintenance period, causing a short - term supply - demand mismatch. The market is in a game between strong reality and weak expectations. It is recommended to operate within a range and partially close long positions [3]. Industrial Silicon - Market performance: On Thursday, the main 09 contract opened higher and then oscillated. The price decreased by 55 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day, and the position decreased by 13,427 lots [3]. - Fundamental factors: Last week, the market rebounded due to the "anti - involution" sentiment. Supply - side, Yunnan contributed a small increase in start - up. Demand - side, polysilicon start - up was stable, organic silicon production was stable, and the aluminum alloy downstream was in the off - season [3]. - Trading strategy: After the futures price rebound, different cost manufacturers will gradually hedge. There is an expectation of increased start - up, but short - term support exists. Pay attention to short - selling opportunities at high levels [3]. Lithium Carbonate - Market performance: On Friday, the main LC2509 contract closed at 64,280 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.28% [3]. - Fundamental factors: Supply - side, the expected production in July increased by 3.92% month - on - month. Demand - side, the downstream production plan increased marginally, but inventory continued to reach new highs [3]. - Trading strategy: In the short - term, the price is expected to oscillate. It is recommended to wait and see or short - sell the far - month LC2511 contract at high levels [3]. Polysilicon - Market performance: On Friday, the main 08 contract opened higher and then oscillated. The price decreased by 15 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day, and the position decreased by 12,676 lots [3]. - Fundamental factors: Last week, the market rose significantly due to "anti - involution" expectations. Supply - side, production increased slightly, and there is a复产 expectation. Demand - side, the production plan of silicon wafers and battery cells decreased in July [3]. - Trading strategy: Pay attention to the progress of leading enterprises in solving supply - demand imbalances and the actual procurement price in the silicon wafer market next week. Partially close long positions [3]. Tin - Market performance: On Friday, tin prices oscillated [3]. - Fundamental factors: Trump's additional tariffs slightly suppressed risk appetite. Supply - side, the tin mine situation remained tight, but the复产 expectation pressured the price. Demand - side, downstream procurement was on - demand, and global weekly inventory decreased [3]. - Trading strategy: Adopt a weak - oscillation - within - a - range approach [3]. Group 3: Black Industry Rebar - Market performance: The main 2510 contract of rebar oscillated weakly, closing at 3,130 yuan/ton, a decrease of 11 yuan/ton compared to the previous night - session closing price [4]. - Fundamental factors: The supply and demand of building materials were both weak, but low production reduced inventory pressure. The supply and demand of steel were balanced. Market sentiment improved, and macro data will have a significant impact this week [4]. - Trading strategy: It is recommended to wait and see and try the 10/1 reverse spread of rebar. The reference range for RB10 is 3,100 - 3,160 [4]. Iron Ore - Market performance: The main 2509 contract of iron ore oscillated strongly, closing at 764 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.5 yuan/ton compared to the previous night - session closing price [4]. - Fundamental factors: The supply and demand of iron ore were neutral. Steel mill profits expanded marginally, and production will remain stable. Supply followed the seasonal pattern. Market sentiment improved, and macro data will be important this week [4]. - Trading strategy: Wait and see. Layout a long position in the 2605 coil - to - ore ratio. The reference range for I09 is 750 - 780 [4]. Coking Coal - Market performance: The main 2509 contract of coking coal oscillated strongly, closing at 921.5 yuan/ton, an increase of 15 yuan/ton compared to the previous night - session closing price [4]. - Fundamental factors: Iron production decreased slightly, and steel mill profits expanded. The fourth round of coke price cuts was implemented, and the first round of price increases is being discussed. Supply - side inventory is differentiated. Market sentiment improved, and macro data will matter this week [4]. - Trading strategy: Wait and see. The reference range for JM09 is 890 - 930 [4]. Group 4: Agricultural Products Soybean Meal - Market performance: Last Friday, CBOT soybeans fell due to a slightly bearish USDA report [5]. - Fundamental factors: Supply - side, the near - term international supply is loose, and the long - term is expected to be loose. Demand - side, South America is dominant in the short - term, and there are uncertainties in US soybean production and tariff policies [5]. - Trading strategy: Short - term, US soybeans are in a range - bound oscillation. Domestic soybeans follow international cost. Pay attention to weather and tariff policies [5]. Corn - Market performance: The 2509 contract of corn continued to decline, and the spot price also fell [5][6]. - Fundamental factors: This year's supply - demand is tightening marginally. Substitute imports decreased, but wheat substitution and import grain auctions affect the price. The spot price is expected to be weak [6]. - Trading strategy: The futures price is expected to oscillate weakly due to the low auction turnover rate of imported corn [6]. Sugar - Market performance: ICE raw sugar 10 contract had a weekly increase of 1.85%, and Zhengzhou sugar 09 contract had a weekly increase of 0.21% [6]. - Fundamental factors: The domestic commodity market sentiment was good, and domestic and international markets rebounded together. Import sugar arrivals are increasing, and the 09 contract is expected to be weak [6]. - Trading strategy: In the futures market, go short at high levels; in the options market, sell call options [6]. Cotton - Market performance: Last Friday, US cotton prices oscillated and fell. Zhengzhou cotton prices oscillated upward [6]. - Fundamental factors: International data adjustments had little impact. Market sentiment was bearish. Domestically, low commercial inventories were concerned, but downstream start - up rates decreased and product inventories increased [6]. - Trading strategy: Wait and see and adopt a range - bound trading strategy [6]. Palm Oil - Market performance: Recently, palm oil has been strong, and the trading center has shifted upward [6]. - Fundamental factors: Supply - side, production in the producing areas weakened marginally. Demand - side, exports decreased month - on - month, but there is support in annual demand [6]. - Trading strategy: In the short - term, P is expected to oscillate strongly. It is recommended to overweight in the sector, and the annual supply is expected to be tight. Pay attention to production and biodiesel policies [6]. Eggs - Market performance: The 2508 contract of eggs oscillated narrowly, and the spot price increased [6]. - Fundamental factors: Farmers are in losses, and old hen culling is expected to decrease. Supply is high, and demand is affected by price and weather. The price is expected to oscillate [6]. - Trading strategy: The futures price is expected to oscillate due to sufficient supply and cost support [6]. Hogs - Market performance: The 2509 contract of hogs oscillated narrowly, and the spot price had a north - up and south - down pattern [6]. - Fundamental factors: Consumption is seasonally weak, slaughterhouses are reducing losses, and supply is increasing. The price is expected to decline in the medium - term [6]. - Trading strategy: The futures price is expected to oscillate and adjust due to weak demand [6]. Apples - Market performance: The main contract had a weekly increase of 0.49%. Apple prices in Shandong were stable [6][7]. - Fundamental factors: The opening price of new - season early - maturing apples increased. There are differences in this year's production. Current consumption is weak, and the market has few contradictions [7]. - Trading strategy: Wait and see [7]. Group 5: Energy and Chemicals LLDPE - Market performance: On Friday, the main LLDPE contract oscillated slightly. The spot price in North China was 7,200 yuan/ton, and the import window was closed [7]. - Fundamental factors: Supply - side, new plants were put into operation, and domestic supply increased. Import is expected to decrease. Demand - side, it is the end of the off - season for agricultural film [7]. - Trading strategy: In the short - term, the market will oscillate, and in the long - term, it is recommended to short - sell far - month contracts at high levels [7]. PVC - Market performance: The v09 contract closed at 4,980, a decrease of 0.5% [7]. - Fundamental factors: Supply is expected to increase, and social inventory is accumulating. Wait for the implementation of production - cut policies [7]. - Trading strategy: Close short positions and wait and see as the rebound lacks momentum [7]. PTA - Market performance: PX CFR China price was 837 US dollars/ton, and PTA spot price was 4,710 yuan/ton [7]. - Fundamental factors: PX supply is low, and PTA supply is increasing. Polyester load decreased, and the supply - demand is expected to be loose [7]. - Trading strategy: Go long on PX, look for short - term positive spread opportunities in PTA, and short - sell processing fees in the long - term [7]. Glass - Market performance: The fg09 contract closed at 1,086, an increase of 2% [7][8]. - Fundamental factors: Spot sales improved, supply is increasing, and inventory is decreasing. The downstream situation is not good, and the valuation is complex [7][8]. - Trading strategy: Wait and see and follow the implementation of production - cut policies [8]. PP - Market performance: On Friday, the main PP contract oscillated slightly. The spot price in East China was 7,100 yuan/ton, the import window was closed, and the export window was open [8]. - Fundamental factors: Supply is increasing, and demand is differentiated. The export situation of downstream products is worthy of attention [8]. - Trading strategy: In the short - term, the market will oscillate weakly. In the long - term, short - sell far - month contracts at high levels [8]. MEG - Market performance: The East China spot price of MEG was 4,384 yuan/ton [8]. - Fundamental factors: Supply is at a high level, and inventory is at a low level. Polyester load decreased, and the supply - demand is balanced [8]. - Trading strategy: MEG is expected to be weak. It is recommended to short - sell at high levels [8]. Crude Oil - Market performance: Last week, oil prices oscillated strongly due to low inventory and stable demand [8]. - Fundamental factors: US gasoline demand was stable. OPEC+ and non - OPEC countries will increase production, and the market is expected to be oversupplied, especially in the fourth quarter [8]. - Trading strategy: Pay attention to inventory accumulation and short - sell at high levels [8]. EB - Market performance: On Friday, the main EB contract oscillated slightly. The spot price in East China was 7,730 yuan/ton, and the import window was closed [8][9]. - Fundamental factors: Supply - side, pure benzene and styrene inventories have different trends. Demand - side, downstream profits are poor, and product inventory is high. Export demand is a key factor [8][9]. - Trading strategy: In the short - term, the market will oscillate. In the long - term, short - sell far - month contracts at high levels [9]. Soda Ash - Market performance: The sa09 contract closed at 1,214, a decrease of 0.9% [9]. - Fundamental factors: Supply increased as a plant resumed production, and inventory accumulated. Downstream demand from photovoltaic glass is weak [9]. - Trading strategy: Short - sell at high levels as the fundamentals are weak [9].

产业企业对更加丰富的期货品种工具体系有迫切需求 以纯苯期货和期权上市为契机，大商所近日在大连组织召开提升塑料期货价格影响力研讨会，来自行业 协会、产业企业、期货公司的多位代表现场参会。中国石油和化学工业联合会党委副书记、副会长傅向 升以及大商所党委书记、理事长冉华出席会议，大商所副总经理程伟东主持会议。 据了解，塑料是以石油、天然气或煤炭为原料制成的化工合成材料，其核心特性包括轻质、耐腐蚀、可 塑性强等，是现代工业和社会生活中不可或缺的基础材料。2024年，全球塑料产业年产量约4亿吨，产 值约4.7万亿元。目前市场上流通的塑料细分品种及其重要化工原料有千余种，按用途和性能可分为通 用塑料、工程塑料、特种工程塑料等类别，除了包装、建筑、汽车等传统领域外，作为新材料在电子电 器、医疗器械、航空航天等高端领域也得到了越来越多的应用。 经过多年发展，我国已成为全球最大的塑料生产国和消费国，产能从20世纪90年代不足千万吨跃升至 2024年的超亿吨级，产量占全球的比重接近30%，塑料制品行业营收达2.5万亿元。随着生产能力的提 升，我国塑料出口量以及占产量的比重也在攀升，已成为我国对外出口的中间商品的重要门类。以PVC ...

2025年07月11日 星期五 商品期货早班车 单击此处输入文字。 招商期货 基本金属 | 招商评论 | 2508 | 合约收盘价较前一交易日+0.90%，收于 | 20700 | 元/吨，国内 | 0-3 | 305 | 元/吨， | 市场表现：昨日电解铝 | 月差 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | LME | 价格 | 2611 | 美元/吨。 | 1%。 | 基本面：供应方面，电解铝厂维持高负荷生产，周度运行产能稳定。需求方面，周度铝材开工率下降 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 铝 | 交易策略：宏观不确定性增强，下游消费淡季氛围浓厚，铝材开工率持续下降，铝锭库存持续累库，对价格 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | ...

2025年07月09日 星期三 商品期货早班车 招商期货 基本金属 招商评论 铜 市场表现：昨日铜价震荡偏强运行。 基本面：特朗普称 8 月 1 日起实施对等关税、不会再推迟，警告欧盟征税函将至。特朗普威胁征 50%铜关税， 预期七月稍晚或者八月一日落地。纽约铜大涨，但伦敦似乎交易关税落地，反而震荡走弱。美债收益率上行， 美元指数短期偏强。华东华南平水铜现货升水 50 元和贴水 100 元成交，国内下游需求淡季明显。伦敦结构 79 美金 back。 交易策略：建议等待整理充分后逢低买入。 风险提示：全球需求不及预期。仅供参考。 铝 市场表现：昨日电解铝 2508 合约收盘价较前一交易日+0.56%，收于 20410 元/吨，国内 0-3 月差 240 元/吨， LME 价格 2589.5 美元/吨。 基本面：供应方面，电解铝厂维持高负荷生产，周度运行产能稳定。需求方面，周度铝材开工率下降 1%。 交易策略：宏观环境转弱，下游消费淡季氛围浓厚，铝材开工率持续下降，铝锭库存持续累库，对价格支撑 有所减弱，预计价格震荡偏弱，需关注宏观情绪变化。建议观望。 风险提示：海内外宏观政策变化。 氧 化 铝 市场表现：昨日氧 ...

2025年07月08日 星期二 商品期货早班车 招商期货 基本金属 | 招商评论 | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | 市场表现：昨日铜价震荡偏弱运行。 | | | | | | | | 基本面：特朗普征税函显示对日韩等 14 国征收 25%到 40%不等关税、8 月 1 日生效，欧盟或接近协议。市 | | | | | | | | | | | | 场再度抛售美股美债，风险偏好下行。华东华南平水铜现货升水 70 元和贴水 50 元成交。伦敦结构 77 美金 | | | | | | | | | | | 铜 | back。精废价差 1600 元附近。 | | | | | | | | | | | | 交易策略：铜供应端紧张难以缓解，等待回撤企稳买入机会。 | | | | | | | | | | | | 风险提示：全球需求不及预期。仅供参考。 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 市场表现：昨日电解铝 2508 合约收盘价较前一交易日-1. ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report The report analyzes the market performance, fundamentals, and provides trading strategies for various commodity futures, including basic metals, black industries, agricultural products, and energy chemicals. It suggests different trading approaches based on the specific situation of each commodity, such as waiting for buying opportunities after a pullback, selling short at high prices, or taking a wait - and - see approach [2][3][4][5][6][7][8]. 3. Summary by Commodity Categories Basic Metals - **Copper**: Market performance was weak on Friday. Fundamentals include Trump's tariff threat and high copper prices leading to a need for consolidation. The supply side has low processing fees and slightly increasing domestic inventory. The trading strategy is to wait for a pullback and then buy [2]. - **Aluminum**: The 2508 contract closed down 0.22% on Friday. Supply is stable with high - load production, while demand has a 1% drop in weekly aluminum product开工率. The trading strategy is to sell short at high prices due to weakening price support [2]. - **Alumina**: The 2509 contract closed down 0.07% on Friday. Supply capacity increased by 400,000 tons, and demand is stable. The trading strategy is short - term range trading and buying long - term call options [2]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Prices rebounded last week. Supply is high with a slight decline in weekly output, and demand is expected to increase 2 - 3% in July before entering the off - season. The trading strategy is to sell short at high prices after the market consensus is reached [2]. - **Tin**: Market performance was weak on Friday. Fundamentals include Trump's tariff threat and short - term tin ore shortages. The trading strategy is to wait for a pullback and then buy [2]. Black Industry - **Rebar Steel**: The 2510 contract was flat. The market has a balanced supply - demand situation with low inventory pressure. The trading strategy is to wait and try a 10/1 reverse spread [3]. - **Iron Ore**: The 2509 contract was flat. Supply - demand is neutral, and the trading strategy is to wait and set up long positions in the far - month coil - ore ratio [3]. - **Coking Coal**: The 2509 contract was weak. Supply - demand is relatively loose but improving. The trading strategy is to wait [3]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal**: CBOT soybeans were closed on Friday. Supply is loose in the near - term and normal in the far - term, and demand is in line with expectations. The trading strategy is to follow the international cost side, and the focus is on US soybean production and tariff policies [4]. - **Corn**: The 2509 contract declined. The supply - demand is tightening, but wheat substitution and increased imports may suppress prices. The trading strategy is range trading [4][5]. - **Sugar**: ICE raw sugar and Zhengzhou sugar had small increases. International sugar is expected to decline, and domestic sugar will follow the international trend. The trading strategy is to sell short [5]. - **Cotton**: ICE cotton was closed on Friday, and Zhengzhou cotton was strong. The trading strategy is to buy at low prices and trade in a range [5]. - **Palm Oil**: Prices declined slightly on Friday. Supply is decreasing marginally but still high, and demand is increasing. The trading strategy is to focus on production and policies [5]. - **Eggs**: The 2508 contract was flat. Supply is high, and demand is affected by weather. The trading strategy is range trading [5]. - **Hogs**: The 2509 contract was flat. Supply is increasing, and the trading strategy is range adjustment [5]. Energy Chemicals - **LLDPE**: The contract declined slightly on Friday. Supply is increasing, and demand is improving. The trading strategy is short - term range trading and long - term shorting of far - month contracts [6]. - **PVC**: The v2509 contract declined 0.2%. Supply is expected to increase, and the trading strategy is to wait [6]. - **PTA**: PX prices are rising, and PTA is in a de - stocking phase. The trading strategy is to hold PX long positions, do PTA positive spreads, and short processing fees at high prices [6]. - **Rubber**: The RU2509 contract declined 0.36%. Supply is affected by rain, and demand has some pressure. The trading strategy is to wait and then short after the US tariff policy is clear [6]. - **Glass**: The fg09 contract declined 0.1%. Supply is expected to increase slightly, and the trading strategy is to wait [6][7]. - **PP**: The contract declined slightly on Friday. Supply is increasing, and demand is mixed. The trading strategy is short - term range trading and long - term shorting of far - month contracts [7]. - **MEG**: Supply is high, and inventory is low. The trading strategy is to short at high prices [7]. - **Crude Oil**: OPEC+ decided to increase production in August. Supply is expected to be in surplus in the second half of the year. The trading strategy is to short at high prices [7]. - **Styrene**: The contract rebounded slightly on Friday. Supply is expected to increase, and demand is under pressure. The trading strategy is short - term range trading and long - term shorting of far - month contracts [7][8]. - **Soda Ash**: The sa09 contract declined 0.8%. Supply is increasing, and demand is weak. The trading strategy is to sell short at high prices [8].

2025年07月04日 星期五 商品期货早班车 招商期货 基本金属 | 招商评论 | | | | --- | --- | --- | | | 市场表现：昨日铜价震荡偏弱运行。 | | | | 基本面：美国大漂亮法案在众议院通过，美国非农数据超预期，降息预期延迟。国内周度库存增加 0.57 万吨， | | | 铜 | 华东华南平水铜升水 80 元和 30 元。伦敦结构 109 美金 back。 | | | | 交易策略：突破 1 万美金后或有震荡整理，但上行方向不变。 | | | | 风险提示：全球需求不及预期。仅供参考。 | | | | 市场表现：昨日电解铝 2508 合约收盘价较前一交易日+1.41%，收于 20580 元/吨，国内 0-3 月差 330 元/吨， | | | | | LME 价格 2608.5 美元/吨。 | | | 基本面：供应方面，电解铝厂维持高负荷生产，运行产能小幅上升。需求方面，铝材开工率小幅下降。 | | | 铝 | 交易策略：宏观环境呈现利好。但沪铝基本面面临需求走弱及成本支撑趋弱的双重压力，存在潜在下行风险， | | | | 建议谨慎看多。 | | | | 风险提示：海内外宏 ...

2025年07月03日 星期四 商品期货早班车 招商期货 基本金属 | 招商评论 | | | --- | --- | | | 市场表现：昨日铜价震荡偏强运行，伦敦价格突破 1 万美金。 | | | 基本面：昨日美国小非农数据不增反降，数据后美债收益率下行。供应端铜矿和精铜紧张有增无减，市场担 | | 铜 | 忧 232 落地后铜价受影响。伦敦结构 74 美金 back。华东华南平水铜现货升水 90 元和 50 元。 | | | 交易策略：在反内卷的情况下，商品呈现偏多氛围，铜宏观环境和基本面均支持价格走强，维持逢低买入思 | | | 路。 | | | 风险提示：全球需求不及预期。仅供参考。 | | | 市场表现：昨日电解铝 2508 合约收盘价较前一交易日+1.31%，收于 20580 元/吨，国内 0-3 月差 320 元/吨， | | | LME 价格 2591 美元/吨。 | | | 基本面：供应方面，电解铝厂维持高负荷生产，运行产能小幅上升。需求方面，铝材开工率小幅下降。 | | 铝 | 交易策略：宏观环境呈现利好。但沪铝基本面面临需求走弱及成本支撑趋弱的双重压力，存在潜在下行风险， | | | 建议 ...