Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the real estate industry [4][6] Core Views - The real estate market in 2025 is expected to remain sluggish, with new home transactions down by 15.8% year-on-year, while second-hand home transactions show a slight increase of 3.9% [11][22] - The report emphasizes that the policy environment is expected to become more stringent, similar to the conditions seen in 2008 and 2014, indicating that the current policy adjustments are still in progress [4] - The report suggests that the real estate sector serves as an early economic indicator, making it a valuable asset class for investment [4] - The competitive landscape in the industry is improving, with leading state-owned enterprises and select mixed-ownership and private companies expected to perform better in land acquisition and sales [4] - The report highlights a focus on first-tier and select second-tier cities for investment, as these areas are likely to see better performance during market rebounds [4] Summary by Sections New Home Transactions - In 2025, the cumulative new home transaction volume in 30 sample cities reached 98.217 million square meters, a decrease of 15.8% year-on-year [11] - First-tier cities accounted for 26.191 million square meters, down 12.0%, while second-tier cities saw a decline of 15.6% to 49.040 million square meters [11] - December 2025 saw a significant drop in new home transactions, with a total of 9.679 million square meters, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 40.0% [2][11] Second-Hand Home Transactions - The total area of second-hand home transactions in 2025 was 103.989 million square meters, marking a year-on-year increase of 3.9% [22] - First-tier cities recorded a total of 43.287 million square meters in second-hand home transactions, up 4.4% year-on-year [22] Market Performance - The report notes that the real estate index decreased by 0.7% this week, lagging behind the CSI 300 index by 0.10 percentage points, ranking 19th among 31 sectors [34] - The report identifies a total of 28 stocks that increased in value this week, while 82 stocks experienced declines [34] Credit Bond Issuance - In the week of December 29 to January 4, only one credit bond was issued by real estate companies, totaling 250 million yuan, a decrease of 44.82 million yuan from the previous week [45]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating for the real estate sector is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [2][37] Core Insights - The real estate market is expected to continue its adjustment in 2025, with a projected 6% year-on-year decline in national sales for 2026. The overall transaction volume in 30 key cities is anticipated to decrease by 15% and 13% in terms of units and area, respectively, although the decline is expected to narrow compared to 2024 [4] - The report highlights that second-hand housing transactions are performing better than new housing, with a slight increase of 0.2% in transaction volume for the top ten cities, while new housing transactions are expected to decline by 19% [4] - Positive factors are accumulating, indicating a gradual recovery in the market, including a decrease in down payment ratios and mortgage rates, which are alleviating the financial burden on homebuyers [4] - The report emphasizes the importance of policy measures to stabilize the real estate market, with expectations for continued supportive policies in 2026 [4] Summary by Sections Market Outlook - The report anticipates a 6% decline in national real estate investment and sales in 2026, with an 8.5% drop in investment and a 6% drop in sales under a neutral scenario [4] - The article published in "Qiushi" discusses the need for sustained policy efforts to promote a healthy and stable real estate market [4] Policy Environment - Recent policy adjustments include a reduction in the value-added tax rate for personal housing sales and the issuance of guidelines for improving housing quality [10] - The report notes that the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development has set a goal for significant progress in housing quality improvement by 2030 [4][10] Market Performance - New housing transactions in 50 key cities saw a slight increase of 0.6% week-on-week, while second-hand housing transactions decreased by 33.7% [5][13] - As of January 2, 2026, the inventory of newly built homes in 16 cities decreased by 1.5%, with a de-stocking cycle of 21.1 months [5][16] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on three main lines of investment: 1. Real estate companies with low historical burdens and strong product capabilities, such as China Resources Land and China Overseas Development [4] 2. Hong Kong real estate firms benefiting from market stabilization, such as Sun Hung Kai Properties [4] 3. Companies with stable cash flow and dividends, including China Resources Vientiane Life and Poly Property [4]

Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of stabilizing expectations in the real estate market, highlighting the need for proactive measures to shorten adjustment periods and smooth market fluctuations [5][14][17] - The article from "Qiushi" magazine outlines the critical role of real estate in the national economy and stresses the necessity of maintaining policy strength to align with market expectations [5][14][16] Section Summaries 1. Policy Environment During New Year - The article in "Qiushi" magazine discusses the current phase of the real estate market, indicating a shift from housing shortages to a balance in supply, with a focus on quality over quantity in housing demand [13][15] - It highlights the financial asset nature of real estate, emphasizing its significance in stabilizing the economy and the need for effective expectation management [14][15] 2. Transaction Performance: New and Second-Hand Housing - New housing transactions during the New Year period saw a significant decline, with a daily average of 15.66 million square meters sold across 32 cities, down 44.8% year-on-year [19][21] - In contrast, second-hand housing transactions showed relative stability, with an average of 2,676 units sold daily across 80 cities, a slight decrease of 1.1% year-on-year [26][28] 3. Market Trends and Insights - The real estate sector's performance was weak, with the SW real estate index down 0.7%, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 0.1 percentage points [5][19] - The report notes that the PB valuation for major developers is at 0.45x, indicating low market expectations for price recovery [5][19] 4. Company Valuation and Financial Analysis - The report provides a detailed valuation analysis of key companies in the real estate sector, indicating a "Buy" rating for several firms based on their projected earnings and valuation metrics [6][19] - Companies like Vanke A and China Overseas Development are highlighted for their potential upside based on current market conditions and valuations [6][19] 5. Future Outlook - The report suggests that despite current challenges, there remains significant potential for growth in housing services, second-hand transactions, and real estate asset management, with estimates indicating a need for 10 to 14.9 million new homes annually [16][18] - It emphasizes the importance of maintaining policy strength and aligning it with market expectations to foster recovery in the real estate sector [16][18]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" rating for the real estate and property management sectors, highlighting optimism for the recovery of core cities and the potential for value reassessment in commercial real estate [2][28]. Core Insights - The report identifies two major opportunities: the rise of favorable policies for housing and the strong performance of quality commercial enterprises during a monetary easing cycle, which could lead to a reassessment of consumer-oriented commercial real estate assets [2][28]. - The report emphasizes the importance of effective policy management to stabilize market expectations and suggests that policies should be decisive rather than incremental to avoid market-political conflicts [28][29]. Industry Data Summary New Home Transactions - In the week of December 27 to January 2, new home transactions in 34 key cities totaled 4.067 million square meters, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 10.8%, with first and second-tier cities up by 12.7% and third and fourth-tier cities down by 15.5% [3][6]. - December saw a year-on-year decline of 26% in new home transactions across 34 cities, with first and second-tier cities down by 25.4% and third and fourth-tier cities down by 30.6% [6][7]. Second-Hand Home Transactions - In the same week, second-hand home transactions in 13 cities totaled 1.1 million square meters, a week-on-week decrease of 10.4%, with December's cumulative transactions down by 26.8% year-on-year [11][12]. Inventory and Market Dynamics - The report notes a decrease in new home inventory, with 15 cities seeing a total of 89.401 million square meters available for sale, down 1.4% week-on-week. The average months of inventory turnover is 21.8 months, a decrease of 0.9 months [22][27]. Policy and News Tracking Macro Policies - The Ministry of Finance and the State Administration of Taxation announced a reduction in the value-added tax rate for personal housing sales, with properties sold within two years subject to a 3% tax and those sold after two years exempt from tax [28][29]. - The report highlights the importance of monitoring key indicators in the real estate market, emphasizing that housing is a critical asset for families and directly impacts public interest [28][29]. Company Developments - China Resources Land has established its first Pre-REITs fund, focusing on quality commercial real estate projects, with a fund size of 300 million yuan [35]. - CIFI Holdings has completed its debt restructuring, marking a significant milestone for the company [35].

证券研究报告 | 行业策略报告 2026 年 01 月 04 日 三个市场关注点和一个自然均衡点 ——房地产行业 2026 年度投资策略 周期/房地产 q 投资建议： 行业规模 | | | 占比% | | --- | --- | --- | | 股票家数（只） | 258 | 5.0 | | 总市值（十亿元） | 2936.6 | 2.7 | | 流通市值（十亿元） | 2781.7 | 2.8 | 行业指数 % 1m 6m 12m 绝对表现 -1.8 14.2 8.6 相对表现 -4.0 -3.4 -9.1 资料来源：公司数据、招商证券 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 Jan/25 Apr/25 Aug/25 Dec/25 (%) 房地产 沪深300 相关报告 房地产角度：关注（1）业绩相对稳健且股息率较高的【华润置地】【华润万 象生活】等；（2）经营动量有积极变化的公司，例如 25 年【滨江集团】【中 国金茂】【建发国际集团】【越秀地产】等曾演绎这一逻辑；（3）公开债务 偿付压力下降且估值较低的【金地集团】【龙湖集团】等；（4）业绩增长及 分红稳定的物企【保利物业】【绿城服务】等；（5）存在机会型布 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" rating for the real estate and property management sectors, highlighting optimism for the recovery of core cities and the potential for value reassessment in shopping centers [2][30]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of the real estate sector as a significant contributor to the national economy and household wealth, advocating for robust policy measures to stabilize market expectations [30]. - It identifies two major opportunities: the rise of favorable policies for "good housing" and the strong performance of quality commercial enterprises during a monetary easing cycle, which could lead to a revaluation of consumer-oriented commercial real estate assets [2][30]. Industry Data Summary New Housing Transactions - In the week of December 27 to January 2, new housing transactions in 34 key cities totaled 4.067 million square meters, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 10.8% [2][3]. - Year-on-year, December transactions in these cities decreased by 26%, with first and second-tier cities down 25.4% and third and fourth-tier cities down 30.6% [2][6]. Second-Hand Housing Transactions - In the same week, second-hand housing transactions in 13 cities totaled 1.1 million square meters, a decrease of 10.4% from the previous week [11]. - Cumulatively, December transactions were down 26.8% year-on-year, with a notable decline in third and fourth-tier cities [11][7]. Inventory and Market Dynamics - The report notes a decrease in available housing inventory, with a total of 89.401 million square meters available in 15 cities, down 1.4% week-on-week [23]. - The average months of inventory turnover for the last three months is reported at 21.8 months, indicating a slight improvement in market absorption [23]. Policy and News Tracking Macro Policies - Recent policy changes include a reduction in the value-added tax rate for personal housing sales, aimed at stimulating market activity [30][31]. - The report highlights the need for policies that align with market expectations to avoid creating a tug-of-war between market forces and regulatory measures [30]. Company Developments - Notable company activities include the establishment of a Pre-REITs fund by China Resources Land, aimed at investing in quality commercial real estate projects [36][38]. - CIFI Holdings has completed its debt restructuring, marking a significant milestone in its financial recovery efforts [36].

Core Insights - In 2025, Beijing's residential property transactions reached 34,961 units with a total transaction value of 268.57 billion yuan [1] - The project "He Yue Wang Yun" in Haidian district achieved the highest annual sales value in the city, selling 669 units and generating a revenue of 9.225 billion yuan [1] - The project is a joint development by China Resources Land and Yuexiu Property, benefiting from a prime location near key educational institutions and tech hubs [1] Sales Performance - The opening of "He Yue Wang Yun" on March 21 attracted over 4,000 groups of customers, with sales exceeding 8.5 billion yuan within the first minute [1] - The project’s success is attributed to the strong backing of state-owned enterprises, enhancing its market appeal [1]

Core Insights - The article highlights the impressive sales performance of the residential project "He Yue Wang Yun" in Beijing, which achieved a sales amount of 92.25 billion yuan, making it the top-selling new residential project in the city for the year 2025 [1] Group 1: Sales Performance - In 2025, Beijing's residential property market recorded a total of 34,961 transactions, amounting to 2,685.7 billion yuan [1] - "He Yue Wang Yun" achieved sales of 669 units and a total area of 87,700 square meters [1] - On the opening day, the project attracted over 4,000 groups of customers, with sales exceeding 8.5 billion yuan within the first minute [1] Group 2: Project Development - "He Yue Wang Yun" is a joint development by China Resources Land and Yuexiu Property, benefiting from the strong backing of state-owned enterprises [1] - The project's strategic location near key educational institutions such as Tsinghua University and Peking University enhances its appeal, along with access to high-quality school district resources [1]

Core Insights - Despite industry challenges, four real estate companies are expected to exceed 200 billion yuan in sales by 2025, with the top 10 maintaining a threshold of 100 billion yuan [1][2] - The companies achieving over 200 billion yuan in sales include Poly Developments (253 billion yuan), Greentown China (251.9 billion yuan), China Overseas Property (251.2 billion yuan), and China Resources Land (233.6 billion yuan) [1][2] Group 1: Sales Performance - In December 2025, nearly 70% of 105 typical real estate companies reported a month-on-month increase in total sales, with almost 50% experiencing a month-on-month growth rate exceeding 20% [3] - Notable performers include Yuexiu Property, China State Construction, and Renheng Real Estate, with some companies achieving month-on-month sales growth exceeding 100% [3] - China Resources Land and China State Construction reported year-on-year sales growth rates exceeding 15% [3] Group 2: Market Trends and Future Outlook - The real estate sector is expected to continue its adjustment phase in 2026, with debt restructuring accelerating and the completion of housing delivery tasks [1][9] - The market is anticipated to seek a new supply-demand balance, with structural recovery possible while overall prices are expected to remain stable [9] - The importance of community amenities and services is expected to increase, with a focus on green, smart, healthy, and safe products gaining premium pricing [9] Group 3: Company Resilience and Strategy - 53 companies have maintained their position in the top 100 for five consecutive years, with firms like Binjiang Group and Longfor Group demonstrating stable operations while maintaining investment levels [8] - Some struggling private companies, such as Country Garden and Sunac, remain in the top rankings due to prior land reserves that support sales and debt restructuring efforts [8] - Regional private companies are focusing on local high-capacity cities through precise strategies and partnerships to mitigate financial pressures [8]

Core Viewpoint - The overall performance of real estate companies in 2025 continues to show a bottoming trend, with some companies experiencing significant recovery in their performance. The proportion of companies with year-on-year performance growth is 24%, with 12 companies achieving growth rates exceeding 30% [1][4]. Group 1: Market Performance - The real estate market in 2025 maintains a bottoming trend, with overall sales remaining at low levels. There are 10 companies with sales exceeding 100 billion yuan, 13 companies with sales between 30-100 billion yuan, 42 companies with sales between 10-30 billion yuan, and 35 companies with sales below 10 billion yuan [2]. - Among the 10 companies with sales over 100 billion yuan, only one company, China Jinmao, reported performance growth. In the 13 companies with sales between 30-100 billion yuan, three companies reported growth: Greenland Holdings, China State Construction East, and Bangtai Group [8]. Group 2: Company Performance - A total of 224 companies reported year-on-year performance growth, with 24 companies showing growth. Notably, Bangtai Group's performance surpassed 30 billion yuan for the first time, with a significant year-on-year increase of 79.7% [4][5]. - The companies with the highest sales and their respective year-on-year growth rates include: - Kerry Properties: 227.87 billion yuan, 1646.5% - Jiangshan Wanli Real Estate: 174.50 billion yuan, 731.3% - Fuzhou Jianfa: 88.90 billion yuan, 92.9% - Shanghai Construction: 92.75 billion yuan, 80.6% - Bangtai Group: 303.54 billion yuan, 79.7% [5]. Group 3: State-Owned vs. Private Enterprises - Central state-owned enterprises performed relatively well, with 42.9% of them reporting performance growth. In contrast, only 15.2% of private enterprises and 12.5% of mixed-ownership enterprises reported growth [9][13]. - The proportion of performance growth among various types of real estate companies shows a clear differentiation, with state-owned enterprises leading in growth rates compared to private and mixed-ownership enterprises [13].