Core Viewpoint - After the downturn in the real estate market, only a few companies are expected to report profits in their 2024 financial statements, indicating that those actively acquiring land have not only survived but are also poised for growth. The current real estate market is characterized by structural trends, with strong second-tier and first-tier cities stabilizing, while the market in third-tier cities and below is still bottoming out [1]. Company Analysis - The companies still acquiring land in 2024 are primarily focused on core cities. The ratio of 2024's newly added equity value to market capitalization indicates that Greentown China and Jianfa International have high ratios, with Greentown at 3.73 and Jianfa at 2.45. Greentown's market value dropped by 11% due to a leadership change, enhancing its ratio [3]. - In terms of operational data for 2024, Greentown China reported revenue of 158.5 billion, slightly higher than Jianfa International's 142.99 billion. Greentown's operating cash flow of 28.8 billion significantly outperformed Jianfa's 14.9 billion, indicating higher operational efficiency. Both companies recorded impairment provisions, with Greentown at 4.917 billion and Jianfa at 3.67 billion [3][4]. - Greentown's total land reserve value is double that of Jianfa, with over half of it from projects initiated before 2022. This heavier historical burden suggests that Greentown will likely face more significant and prolonged impairment provisions compared to Jianfa. Both companies have similar dividend payout ratios around 50%, but Greentown's net profit has been severely impacted by substantial impairment provisions, resulting in a current dividend yield of 3%, which is significantly lower than Jianfa's 7.36% [4]. - In terms of debt metrics for 2024, Greentown China has interest-bearing liabilities of 137.2 billion and a net asset liability ratio of 56.6%, both significantly higher than Jianfa's 84.5 billion and 31.78%. The financing rates are comparable, with Jianfa at 3.56% and Greentown at 3.7%, both considered low in the real estate sector. Greentown's debt indicators are showing a downward trend, with interest-bearing liabilities down 6.1%, net asset liability ratio down 7.2%, and financing rate down 0.4% year-on-year [4]. Summary - Jianfa International exhibits more stable finances, a lighter historical burden, and a higher dividend yield. In contrast, Greentown shows significant operational improvements in 2024, with notable growth potential in the recovering high-end city real estate market. If the real estate sector experiences another upturn, Greentown is likely to be a preferred choice [5].

3月27日，建发国际发布年报显示，2024年建发国际实现总收益约1429.9亿元，同比增长6.4%；公司权 益持有人应占利润约48.0亿元，同比下降4.6%，依然延续了"增收不增利"的局面。 就在财报发出当天，建发国际"换帅"，委任林伟国为董事会主席，田美坦接任行政总裁。至此，林伟国 正式接任建发国际"一把手"角色。那么，在冲规模后，建发国际将如何打响"利润保卫战"？ 销售规模"缩水"，增收不增利 在房地产行业调整之际，房企销售额普遍下降，建发国际的销售规模也出现四分之一的"缩水"。 从这份年报数据来看，从横向行业比较，建发国际属于表现上乘的上市房企，在2024年依然维持了 1429.9亿元的总收益，同时权益持有人应占利润也维持在48亿元；但是纵向比较，建发国际的权益持有 人应占利润也是处于三年来的低点，相比于上年下降了4.6%，且依然延续了"增收不增利"的局面。 由于2023年建发国际毛利率大幅降低，2024年，受结转结构影响，建发国际的毛利率回升至13.3%。近 6年来建发国际毛利率分别为25.9%、17.2%、16.4%、15.3%、11.9%和13.3%，建发国际要想进一步提高 利润水平，毛利率还需要 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" rating for the real estate sector, indicating optimism about future recovery and growth [4][22]. Core Insights - The new housing market is still in need of recovery, with the investment side being weaker than the sales side. The report suggests that the investment recovery pace will be significantly slower than in previous cycles [4][22]. - The report highlights that the sales side is currently in a bottoming phase, with expectations of demand recovery driven by proactive policies and urban renewal projects [4][33]. Summary by Sections Investment Side - In January-February 2025, real estate development investment totaled 1,072 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 9.8%, with new starts down 29.6% and construction down 9.1% [5][21]. - The report forecasts a 2025 investment decline of 9.9%, with new starts and completions expected to decrease by 9.7% and 22.6%, respectively [4][22]. Sales Side - The sales area for January-February 2025 was 110 million square meters, down 5.1% year-on-year, while sales revenue was 1 trillion yuan, a decrease of 2.9% [21][33]. - The average selling price increased by 2.6% year-on-year, indicating some resilience in pricing despite overall sales volume decline [32][33]. Funding Side - Total funding sources for real estate developers in January-February 2025 were 1.6 trillion yuan, down 3.6% year-on-year, but showing signs of improvement compared to previous months [34][36]. - Domestic loans decreased by 6.1%, while self-raised funds saw a smaller decline of 2.1%, indicating a tightening in funding availability [34][36].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" rating for the real estate market in Hangzhou [4][6]. Core Views - The report highlights that the economic growth in Hangzhou, driven by the technology sector and a continuous net population increase, creates a favorable environment for real estate investment [3][4]. - It emphasizes that despite a weak overall market, structural opportunities exist, particularly in core first- and second-tier cities, with expectations of a supply-demand reversal and strong resilience [4][5]. Summary by Sections 1. Macroeconomic Overview - Hangzhou's GDP is projected to reach 2.2 trillion yuan in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 4.7%, ranking 8th among major cities in China [3][13]. - The digital economy and cloud computing sectors contribute to 80% of the GDP, indicating a robust technological foundation for future growth [3][14]. - The city has seen a net population increase of 3.5 million from 2015 to 2023, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 13.1% in the core four districts [3][29]. 2. Land Market - As of January 2025, Hangzhou's inventory is at a low of 8 months, the lowest among major cities, with core districts showing even shorter cycles of 3-5 months [3][40]. - Land transaction amounts have decreased for three consecutive years, with 2024 figures showing a 34% decline year-on-year, but the core districts' share of total transactions has increased from 40%-45% to 56% [3][50]. - The top three companies in land acquisition for 2024 are Binjiang Group (32%), Greentown China (18%), and Jianfa Real Estate (16%) [3][60]. 3. Sales Performance - The report notes a recovery in market sentiment, with second-hand home transactions surpassing new homes for the first time, accounting for 65% of total sales [3][6]. - The core four districts' share of new home sales has increased from 31% in 2020 to 49% in 2023, indicating a shift in market dynamics [3][6]. - The competitive landscape remains stable, with Binjiang Group, Greentown China, and Jianfa Real Estate leading the market [3][6]. 4. Impact and Opportunities - The report anticipates that sectors such as residential development, intermediary services, and property management will benefit from the improving market conditions in Hangzhou [3][4]. - Key companies expected to benefit include Binjiang Group, Jianfa International, and Greentown China in residential development, and Beike and Wo Ai Wo Jia in intermediary services [3][4]. 5. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on residential developers like Binjiang Group, Jianfa Shares, and Greentown China, as well as property management firms like Greentown Services and Nandu Property [4][5].

地产止跌回稳后的投资机遇——申万宏源·2025 资本市场春 季策略会 20250312 摘要 Q&A 2025 年初以来房地产市场的整体表现如何？ 当前房地产价格走势如何？是否出现波动？ 2025 年初以来，房地产市场在春节后出现了明显回暖。数据显示，主流的 20 个城市二手房认购成交量同比增长了 27%，其中杭州和东莞的表现尤为突出， 甚至翻倍。然而，与 2023 年同期相比，这一数据下降了 17%。需要注意的是， 2023 年的基数较高，因为当时疫情放开导致市场表现异常强劲。尽管如此，一 些城市如杭州、成都、深圳、长沙和沈阳在今年的表现仍超过了 2023 年同期水 • 房地产市场需求在房价下跌后自然回升，杭州、成都、深圳等城市认购销 售数据优于过去两年，北京、上海表现稳定。春节后带看量显著回升，预 示认购量有望进一步改善。 • 房地产价格走势略有走弱，挂牌价格下降但成交价格稳定，受季节性因素 和居民资产负债表影响。新房成交推盘比提升至 2.4 倍，表明新房市场去 化速度加快，市场信心有所恢复。 • 土地市场出现积极变化，北京、上海、杭州等地拍出新"地王"，3 月份 溢价率达 16%，头部企业拿地强度上升， ...

【二手房成交】 1-2 月一线城市楼市成交同比正增长，弱能级城市仍 然承压；土拍溢价率创 42 个月以来新高 核心观点 【新房成交】 房地产行业|证券研究报告—行业月报 2025 年 3 月 13 日 强于大市 投资建议 房地产行业2025年2月月报 中银国际证券股份有限公司 具备证券投资咨询业务资格 房地产行业 证券分析师：夏亦丰 (8621)20328348 yifeng.xia@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号：S1300521070005 证券分析师：许佳璐 (8621)20328710 jialu.xu@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号：S1300521110002 因去年同期恰逢春节假期低基数原因，2 月新房成交面积同比增速转正。2 月 40 城新房成交面积环比-14.2%，同比+25.0%，同比增速由负转 正，同比增速较上月上升 36.6pct。1-2 月 40 城新房成交面积累计同比+1.8%。 从各能级城市来看，高能级城市新房成交量同比正增长，一线城市因新政利好效应增幅居前，三四线城市同比负增长。1）一线城市：2 月新 房成交面积环比-29.8%，同比 ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for various sectors, particularly in technology and construction, with a focus on government support and policy measures to stimulate growth [2][3][19]. Core Insights - The government has set a growth target of approximately 5% for 2025, with a CPI target of around 2%, reflecting a pragmatic approach to economic management [2]. - Fiscal policy is becoming more proactive, with an increase in the budget and local government special bonds, aimed at boosting domestic demand and stabilizing the real estate market [3][5]. - Emphasis on new productivity represented by AI and other emerging technologies, with a focus on modernizing the industrial system and promoting large-scale application demonstrations of new technologies [3][6][30]. - The resilience of Chinese exports is highlighted, with stable global market shares and an increase in the share of intermediate goods, indicating continued global reliance on China [7]. - Capital market reforms are deepening, with measures to attract long-term funds into the market, including increased allocations from insurance and public funds [10][19]. - The report outlines specific measures for the real estate sector, including demand stimulation and supply adjustments, to support market stabilization [23][21]. Summary by Sections Economic Goals and Policies - The government aims for a 5% growth target and a 2% CPI target, with fiscal policies becoming more aggressive, including a budget increase to 1.6 trillion yuan and an increase in local government special bonds to 4.4 trillion yuan [2][3]. Real Estate Market - The report emphasizes the need to stabilize the real estate market through various measures, including issuing special bonds to support local governments and expanding the use of special loans [5][21][23]. Emerging Industries - The focus is on AI, biomanufacturing, quantum technology, and 6G as key areas for future growth, with government support for large-scale applications of new technologies [6][30]. Export Resilience - Despite global supply chain disruptions, Chinese exports have shown resilience, maintaining stable market shares and increasing the share of intermediate goods [7]. Capital Market Reforms - The report discusses measures to deepen capital market reforms, including attracting long-term funds and optimizing stock issuance and merger regulations [10][19]. Construction and Building Materials - The government plans to issue 1.3 trillion yuan in long-term special bonds and 4.4 trillion yuan in special bonds, which is expected to improve the order and payment situation for construction enterprises [15][16]. Technology and Innovation - The report highlights the importance of technological innovation, particularly in AI and related fields, and emphasizes the need for core technology self-reliance [30][32].

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry or Company Involved - The conference call primarily discusses the Chinese economy and various sectors influenced by the 2025 government work report, including technology, capital markets, real estate, and consumer sectors. Core Points and Arguments 1. **Economic Development Focus**: The government emphasizes expanding domestic demand, boosting consumption, promoting technological innovation, and supporting the development of the private economy. Consumption is highlighted as a key component of domestic demand policies [3][4][5] 2. **Capital Market Development**: The report stresses the importance of stabilizing the real estate and stock markets, with monetary policy support and capital market reforms being crucial. The management aims to create a favorable environment for the capital market [3][6][8] 3. **Investment Opportunities**: Key investment opportunities for the upcoming year are identified in technology sectors, particularly in AI computing, humanoid robots, and low-altitude economy. High-dividend sectors are also expected to see trends as recovery expectations grow [3][10] 4. **Monetary and Fiscal Policy**: The report indicates a shift towards moderately loose monetary policy and more proactive fiscal policy, with a focus on the supply of government bonds and local government debt [3][11] 5. **Real Estate Sector Outlook**: The government maintains a positive stance on the real estate sector, emphasizing the need for stable housing prices to support consumption. Specific measures include potential interest rate cuts and easing purchase restrictions in first-tier cities [3][14] 6. **Technological Innovation Initiatives**: The government outlines new initiatives in technological innovation, including advancements in AI, 6G technology, and smart devices, positioning these as core drivers of high-quality development [3][5] 7. **Consumer Electronics and Emerging Industries**: The report highlights the importance of consumer electronics, with government subsidies for products like smartphones and AR/VR devices, which will stimulate market demand [3][24] 8. **Cultural Industry Growth**: The cultural industry is seen as having significant growth potential, with support for the application of large models and the opening of the internet and cultural sectors to promote international trade [3][22] 9. **Food and Beverage Sector**: The food and beverage sector is expected to recover as the economy stabilizes, with a focus on national brands and regional leaders in the market [3][41][42] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content 1. **Debt Management**: The government acknowledges the need to address debt issues within the development framework, particularly concerning private enterprises [3][4] 2. **Transportation and Logistics**: The report emphasizes the need for innovation in transportation and logistics to enhance efficiency and reduce costs, particularly in cold chain and cross-border logistics [3][27][28] 3. **Green Transition**: The government is committed to promoting a green and low-carbon transition in transportation, integrating new technologies to improve operational efficiency [3][29] 4. **Banking Sector Support**: The report indicates the necessity of injecting capital into state-owned banks to support the real economy, with a projected issuance of special bonds to bolster bank capital [3][43][44] 5. **Non-Bank Financial Sector**: The focus is on comprehensive reform in the non-bank financial sector, promoting long-term capital inflows and addressing risks in smaller financial institutions [3][45] 6. **Construction Industry Trends**: The construction industry is expected to shift towards maintaining and renovating existing structures, with an emphasis on overseas expansion to compensate for domestic market saturation [3][58] This summary encapsulates the key insights and implications from the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the government's economic strategies and their potential impact on various sectors.

| 报告日期 | 2025 年 03 月 02 日 | | --- | --- | | 行业评级 | 推荐（维持） | 相关研究 海外行业周报 | 地产建筑业 证券研究报告 【兴证海外地产】海外地产周报 （2025.02.17-2025.02.23）：2 月 LPR 维持不变-2025.02.23 【兴证海外地产】海外地产周报 （2025.02.10-2025.02.16）：布局地产板 块正当时-2025.02.17 【兴证海外地产】海外地产周报 （2025.02.03-2025.02.09）：建议积极布 局地产板块-2025.02.09 分析师：宋健 S0190518010002 BMV912 songjian@xyzq.com.cn 分析师：严宁馨 S0190521010001 请注意: 严宁馨并非香港证券及期货事务 监察委员会的注册持牌人，不可在香港从 事受监管的活动。 yanningxin@xyzq.com.cn 分析师：孙钟涟 S0190521080001 请注意: 孙钟涟并非香港证券及期货事务 监察委员会的注册持牌人，不可在香港从 事受监管的活动。 sunzhonglian@xyzq.com.cn ...