王璐 A0230516080007 wanglu@swsresearch.com 莫龙庭 A0230523080005 molt@swsresearch.com 傅浩玮 A0230522010001 fuhw@swsresearch.com 朱赫 A0230524070002 zhuhe@swsresearch.com 站玩人行业 证券分析师 联系人 朱赫 A0230524070002 zhuhe@swsresearch.com 申万宏源研究微信服务号 — 申万公用环保周报(25/11/24~25/11/28) 本期投资提示: 公用事亦 2025 年 12 月 01 日 相关研究 多地规范售电批零价差 欧亚 第12年 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 电力：广东发函规范售电批零价差。广东电力交易中心发布关于征求广东电力零售市场交易结算 有关事项意见的函（广东交易函〔2025〕11 号)。自 2026 年起，拟对各售电公司月度平均度电 批零差价高于差价收益上限 0.01 元/千瓦时的部分，按照 1:9 比例由售电公司与零售用户分享。今 年以陕西、安徽、四川、山东、新疆为代表的多个省区相继出台针对售电公 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment outlook for the public utilities and environmental sectors, particularly in the context of recent regulatory changes and market dynamics [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights the regulatory measures in various provinces aimed at standardizing the retail price differences in electricity sales, which is expected to stabilize market expectations and improve the profitability of electricity sales companies [3][7]. - It notes the fluctuating natural gas prices globally, with U.S. prices rising while European prices are declining, indicating a complex supply-demand landscape influenced by geopolitical factors and seasonal demand [12][22]. - The report provides specific investment recommendations across various segments, including hydropower, thermal power, nuclear power, green energy, and gas-related companies, reflecting a diversified approach to capitalize on emerging opportunities [10][37]. Summary by Sections 1. Electricity: Regulation of Retail Price Differences - Guangdong has issued guidelines to regulate the retail price differences, proposing a sharing mechanism for excess profits above a set threshold starting in 2026 [7]. - Several provinces have introduced detailed policies to manage retail price differences, aiming to prevent excessive profits by electricity sales companies and ensure fair pricing for consumers [8][9]. - The report emphasizes the need for a shift from aggressive pricing strategies to a service-oriented business model for electricity sales companies, which could stabilize market expectations [9]. 2. Natural Gas: Global Price Fluctuations - As of November 28, U.S. Henry Hub spot prices reached $4.59/mmBtu, reflecting an 11.13% weekly increase, while European prices, such as TTF, fell by 5.37% to €28.75/MWh [12][13]. - The report notes that U.S. natural gas demand has surged due to cold weather, despite record production levels, leading to a tightening supply-demand balance [16]. - In Northeast Asia, LNG prices have decreased to $10.90/mmBtu, down 6.52% week-on-week, driven by weak demand and high inventory levels [31][34]. 3. Investment Recommendations - Hydropower: Favorable autumn floods are expected to enhance hydropower generation capacity for the winter and spring, with recommendations for major hydropower companies [10]. - Thermal Power: The diversification of revenue sources in thermal power companies is highlighted, with recommendations for integrated coal and power companies [11]. - Nuclear Power: The report suggests focusing on nuclear power companies due to stable cost structures and expected growth from new approvals [11]. - Green Energy: The introduction of new market rules for renewable energy is expected to stabilize returns for green energy operators [11]. - Gas and Environmental Companies: Recommendations include integrated gas trading companies and environmentally focused firms benefiting from regulatory changes [37].

Core Viewpoint - The recent revisions to the pricing and cost auditing methods for electricity transmission and distribution aim to enhance the regulatory framework, promote the consumption of renewable energy, and potentially lower electricity prices while ensuring reasonable returns for grid companies [2][5]. Group 1: Regulatory Changes - The National Development and Reform Commission has revised four key pricing methods to improve the regulatory system for electricity transmission and distribution [2]. - New standards for loan interest rates will more accurately reflect the actual financing costs of grid companies [2]. - The revised methods will allow for adjustments in the return on equity for provincial grid companies to ensure balanced development and fair pricing across regions [3]. Group 2: Pricing Mechanisms - The new regulations propose a single capacity pricing mechanism for projects that facilitate the nearby consumption of renewable energy, clarifying the responsibilities of grid companies, power generation companies, and users [3]. - The synchronization of cost audits for cross-provincial and regional projects aims to enhance efficiency in cost and price regulation [4]. - The sharing of transmission revenue from actual line loss rates will now be handled monthly, allowing for more dynamic adjustments based on performance [4]. Group 3: Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on high-quality thermal power operators such as Huaneng International, Datang Power, and China Power, as well as hydropower companies like Yangtze Power and Guotou Power [5]. - The investment outlook for the thermal power sector is optimistic due to expected increases in capacity pricing and the potential for revaluation of thermal assets [8]. - The report highlights the importance of national thermal power enterprises over regional ones, citing better profit distribution and growth potential [9]. Group 4: Market Sentiment and Performance - The public fund's heavy holdings in the utility sector have reached a historical low, indicating a potential undervaluation and opportunity for investment [11][12]. - The thermal power sector has seen a decrease in holdings due to market risk appetite shifting towards more aggressive sectors, despite some companies still attracting institutional interest [12]. - The hydropower sector has experienced a decline in holdings, but long-term value remains strong, particularly for companies with attractive dividend yields [13]. Group 5: Sector-Specific Insights - The nuclear power sector has seen a decrease in holdings due to weak performance in mid-year reports and market sentiment, but its long-term value is expected to remain stable [14]. - The renewable energy sector has faced challenges, but there is a focus on undervalued companies with strong alpha characteristics, indicating a shift towards high-quality development [13].

Macro Analysis - The manufacturing PMI showed signs of stabilization in November, indicating a weak recovery driven by improved exports due to the easing of trade tensions between China and the US, with new export orders and small enterprise PMI significantly rebounding [2] - Seasonal disruptions from the October holiday have ended, leading to a rise in production and procurement indices [2] - Both raw material and finished product price indices have increased, suggesting an ongoing improvement in the supply-demand relationship for industrial goods [2] Strategy Insights - The market is expected to remain in a wide fluctuation phase, with a potential bull market direction, although short-term catalysts may be lacking [4] - The A-share and Hong Kong stock monthly stock picks for December include companies like Tencent Holdings, China Petroleum, and Haier Smart Home, indicating a focus on sectors with growth potential [3] Bond Market Overview - The total bond custody volume increased significantly in October, with a net increase in interest rate bonds and credit bonds, while financial bonds saw a net decrease [5] - The convertible bond market experienced slight adjustments, with high-priced and high-valuation convertible bonds facing pressure [6] - Credit bond issuance rose to 5,890.11 million yuan, reflecting a 1.34% increase week-on-week, with overall credit spreads trending upwards [7] Chemical Industry Insights - The signing of a major potash fertilizer contract at $348 per ton indicates a tight supply-demand situation, supporting the industry's positive outlook [11] - Oil prices are experiencing low-level fluctuations due to geopolitical tensions and OPEC+ production policies, with Brent and WTI prices reported at $62.32 and $58.48 per barrel respectively [12] Energy Sector Developments - The storage and hydrogen energy sectors are expected to see continued growth, with government support for market-driven adjustments and the promotion of hydrogen ammonia construction [13] Copper Industry Analysis - The China Copper Raw Material Negotiation Group has requested a 10% reduction in copper production capacity for 2026, indicating a tightening supply situation [14] Utility Sector Updates - The National Development and Reform Commission has released new pricing policies for electricity distribution, which may lead to a valuation recovery in the green electricity sector [15] Automotive Sector Performance - Pony.ai reported significant revenue growth in its Robotaxi segment, with expectations for continued expansion and improved profitability [16] - Li Auto's third-quarter performance was under pressure, leading to a downward revision of profit forecasts, but the company remains optimistic about its market positioning [17] Apparel Industry Trends - Chow Tai Fook's sales growth turned positive in Q2, with a notable increase in revenue from priced jewelry, prompting an upward revision of profit forecasts [18] - Bosideng's revenue grew by 1.4% in the first half of the fiscal year, supported by stable growth in its branded down jacket business [19]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the industry, indicating a positive outlook for the sector's fundamentals and an expectation that the industry index will outperform the benchmark index [3]. Core Insights - The world's first engineering-scale supercritical carbon dioxide (sCO2) power generation system, "Super Carbon No. 1," has completed grid debugging and is expected to achieve full power generation within the year. This technology offers significant advantages over traditional steam turbine generation, including higher efficiency, faster response times, and lower carbon emissions [7]. - The sCO2 technology is particularly well-suited for applications in nuclear power, solar thermal power, and industrial waste heat recovery, with the potential to enhance efficiency in these sectors [7]. - The report highlights the advancements in sCO2 technology in China, positioning the country as a global leader in this field, with ongoing projects and collaborations aimed at further development and application [7]. Industry Overview - The industry comprises 242 listed companies, with a total market capitalization of 4,017.6 billion and a circulating market capitalization of 3,721.7 billion [3]. - Recent performance metrics indicate a 1-month absolute performance of -2.3%, a 6-month performance of 14.3%, and a 12-month performance of 18.4%, reflecting a generally positive trend over the longer term [5]. - The report references several related studies that provide insights into the electricity consumption growth and the performance of various energy sectors, indicating a robust environment for investment in the power industry [6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the utility sector [10]. Core Insights - The recent revision of the pricing methods for transmission and distribution aims to enhance the consumption of renewable energy, with a focus on establishing a fair cost-sharing mechanism among grid companies, power generation enterprises, and users [2][6]. - The new regulations are expected to lower transmission and distribution costs, thereby making electricity pricing more reasonable while promoting the utilization of renewable energy [12]. Summary by Sections Pricing Method Revisions - The National Development and Reform Commission has revised four pricing methods related to transmission and distribution, adapting to the new requirements of the power system and focusing on renewable energy consumption [6]. - Key changes include the introduction of a single capacity pricing system for grid companies serving renewable energy projects, enhancing regulatory oversight throughout the process [7]. Cost Monitoring - The new methods provide a more accurate reflection of financing costs for grid companies by establishing a loan interest rate based on the average financing rate of the group [6]. - Changes in cost parameters for materials and management fees aim to ensure that costs do not exceed previously established limits, thus improving the accuracy of cost monitoring [6][7]. Provincial and Cross-Regional Pricing - The revised methods allow for adjustments in the return on equity for provincial grid companies, ensuring a balance between reasonable returns and user affordability [7]. - For cross-regional projects, the report suggests exploring two-part or single capacity transmission pricing, which is expected to facilitate the consumption of renewable energy across provinces [8]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on quality thermal power operators such as Huaneng International, Datang Power, and Guodian Power, as well as hydropower companies like Yangtze Power and State Investment Power [12]. - It also highlights opportunities in the renewable energy sector, suggesting investments in companies like Longyuan Power and China Nuclear Power, which are expected to benefit from favorable policy changes and market conditions [12].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the public utility and environmental sectors [1][6][8]. Core Views - The report highlights a 7.9% year-on-year increase in national electricity market trading volume from January to October 2025, with significant growth in green electricity trading [2][15]. - The controlled nuclear fusion industry is experiencing accelerated capital expenditure, with a notable increase in project bidding activity [3][17]. - The report emphasizes the importance of policies supporting renewable energy development, predicting stable profitability for new energy generation [4][22]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.64%, while the public utility and environmental indices increased by 0.89% and 1.59%, respectively [1][14]. - Within the electricity sector, thermal power increased by 1.60%, while hydropower and new energy generation saw smaller gains [1][24]. Important Events - In October 2025, the national electricity market trading volume reached 563.8 billion kWh, marking a 15.6% increase year-on-year [2][15]. - The cumulative trading volume for the first ten months of 2025 was 5,492 billion kWh, accounting for 63.7% of total electricity consumption, up 1.5 percentage points from the previous year [2][15]. Specialized Research - The report details 35 public bidding projects in the controlled nuclear fusion sector from October to November 2025, with a total estimated contract value of 2.6 billion yuan [3][17]. - The bidding activity has significantly accelerated compared to previous months, indicating a growing interest and investment in this area [3][17]. Investment Strategy - Recommendations include major thermal power companies like Huadian International and Shanghai Electric, as well as leading new energy firms such as Longyuan Power and Three Gorges Energy [4][22]. - The report also suggests focusing on water and waste incineration sectors, which are entering a mature phase with improved cash flow [4][22]. Key Company Earnings Forecasts - The report provides earnings forecasts and investment ratings for various companies, all maintaining an "Outperform" rating, including Huadian International, Longyuan Power, and China Nuclear Power [8][22].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for key companies in the power sector, including 大唐发电, 建投能源, 川投能源, 长江电力, and 中国广核, all of which are recommended for investment [6]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes that the power sector is entering a new phase of development, with fire power generation expected to benefit from capacity pricing and auxiliary services, leading to improved profitability and stability [4][5]. - Hydropower is projected to see growth driven by decreasing financial costs and increased installed capacity, making it an attractive investment opportunity [4]. - Nuclear power is entering a phase of active development, with a significant increase in approved and under-construction capacity expected in the coming years [4]. - The renewable energy sector faces challenges with pricing pressures but has potential for growth through integration with green hydrogen and other technologies [5]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Review - The public utility sector index increased by 4.9% from January to October 2025, underperforming compared to the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index, which rose by 16.0% [11]. - Fire power generation saw a profit increase of 16.8%, while nuclear and wind power faced profit declines of 12.4% and 16.4%, respectively [21]. 2. Fire Power - Fire power generation is transitioning to a more stable and regulated model, with expected capacity growth and improved profitability due to new pricing mechanisms [25]. - The average utilization hours for fire power are projected to decrease to around 3500 hours by 2030, reflecting a shift in operational dynamics [30]. 3. Hydropower - Hydropower generation is expected to benefit from improved water conditions and financial efficiencies, with long-term growth potential [4]. - The report highlights that financial costs are decreasing, and depreciation periods are expiring, contributing to the sector's attractiveness [4]. 4. Nuclear Power - The nuclear power sector is set for significant growth, with a focus on the approval of new units and advancements in fourth-generation technology [4]. - The report notes that the approved capacity for nuclear power is expected to exceed operational capacity by 107% in the coming years [4]. 5. Renewable Energy - The renewable energy sector is facing challenges with pricing, as competitive pricing mechanisms are being introduced, potentially impacting profitability [5]. - The report suggests that integrating renewable energy with technologies like green hydrogen could open new growth avenues [5]. 6. Investment Strategy - The report recommends focusing on companies with strong operational capabilities and cost advantages in the renewable energy sector, such as 龙源电力 and 三峡能源 [5]. - It also suggests that the investment strategy should consider the stability of fire power profitability and the attractive dividend yields of hydropower companies in a low-interest-rate environment [4].

宏观 要闻 重要经济指标发布 11月30日，国家统计局服务业调查中心和中国物流与采购联合会发布了中国采购经理指数。数据显示， 11月份制造业采购经理指数为49.2%，比上月上升0.2个百分点，景气水平有所改善；非制造业商务活动 指数为49.5%，比上月下降0.6个百分点，显示非制造业经营活动有所放缓；综合PMI产出指数为 49.7%，比上月下降0.3个百分点，我国经济景气水平总体平稳。 分析认为，12月制造业市场需求仍有趋稳回升空间，并带动企业生产活动稳中有增，年末节庆和冬季消 费相关需求集中释放会带动消费相关服务业有所回升，投资有望继续发挥托底经济的作用。不过，专家 也提出，要围绕"十五五"良好开局进一步加强宏观经济政策逆周期调节力度，显著加大政府公共产品、 公共服务投资规模，进一步有效有力带动企业订单增加。 多部门联合召开科技金融统筹推进机制第一次会议 11月27日，中国人民银行、科技部等部门联合召开科技金融统筹推进机制第一次会议。中国人民银行行 长潘功胜、科技部部长阴和俊出席会议并讲话。 会议强调，明年是"十五五"开局之年，各有关部门要扎实推进各项工作任务落实，常态化运行科技金融 统筹推进机制，强化科金 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the industry [4] Core Views - The National Development and Reform Commission has introduced new pricing regulations for power transmission and distribution, which will promote the development of green electricity. The new regulations focus on local consumption and cross-province transmission, facilitating the utilization of renewable energy and enhancing the efficiency of power grid companies [2][13] - The exploration of a two-part or capacity-based pricing system for cross-province and cross-region projects will stabilize the revenue from clean energy transmission and improve the utilization rate of high-voltage channels [3][14] - Multiple provinces are rolling out market-oriented trading plans for 2026, which will accelerate the transformation of the electricity market by mandating a high proportion of long-term contracts and ensuring that coal-fired power trading prices fluctuate within a specified range [8][10] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The report highlights the positive impact of new transmission and distribution pricing regulations on renewable energy consumption and the introduction of market-oriented trading plans for 2026 [2][8] Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3,888.6 points, up 1.4%, while the CSI 300 Index rose 1.64% to 4,526.66 points. The CITIC Power and Utilities Index increased by 0.88%, underperforming the CSI 300 by 0.76 percentage points [63][64] Key Investment Opportunities - The report recommends focusing on flexible resources such as thermal power and investment opportunities in energy storage and virtual power plants. Specific stocks highlighted include Huaneng International, Huadian International, and China Nuclear Power [8][9]