东兴证券近日发布交通运输行业2026年投资策略：回顾本年交运行业的走势，截至2025年12月8日，交 运板块涨幅在申万一级行业中排名靠后，走势明显弱于大盘。细分到子板块，公路、铁路、港口等重资 产+弱周期板块年初至今走势相对较弱，而航运航空等周期类板块走势相对较强。我们认为下半年反内 卷的政策执行对交运强周期板块的股价产生了较为积极的影响。 以下为研究报告摘要： 投资摘要： 行业回顾：反内卷带动强周期板块基本面回暖 回顾本年交运行业的走势，截至2025年12月8日，交运板块涨幅在申万一级行业中排名靠后，走势明显 弱于大盘。细分到子板块，公路、铁路、港口等重资产+弱周期板块年初至今走势相对较弱，而航运航 空等周期类板块走势相对较强。我们认为下半年反内卷的政策执行对交运强周期板块的股价产生了较为 积极的影响。 2026年展望：重视反内卷受益板块及高确定性个股 我们认为与今年下半年类似的，26年行业需要重点关注的依旧是反内卷和高确定性两条主线。今年国家 层面对反内卷的重视程度明显提升，反内卷对于行业的影响大概率会长期化，并对26年相关行业的股价 走势造成重要影响。因此我们建议持续关注受益于反内卷的相关板块，包括航空 ...

在我们生活的每一个角落，总有党员的身影默默闪现。他们是先锋、是旗帜，是温暖人心的力量源泉。 基层治理，他们化解难题；乡村振兴，他们扎根奉献；产业发展，他们带头探索；科技创新，他们勇攀 高峰……即日起，长沙晚报推出"党代表在身边"专栏，讲述基层党代表联系服务党员和群众、履行代表 职责等方面的鲜活故事，凝聚起围绕中心服务大局、立足岗位创先争优的共识和力量。 长沙晚报全媒体记者 刘捷萍 "操控杆要稳，视线既要盯紧无人机，也要关注航线周边环境。"近日，党的二十大代表、圆通速递长沙 市高桥分公司营运部经理马石光刚拿到中型超视距无人机操控员执照，便与同事分享实操心得。这张执 照，既是他个人技能的突破，更承载着探索低空经济赋能快递业的新思考。 从日均上门派送400多件包裹的快递员，到管理日处理1.7万件快件营运部的经理，再到为国家"十五 五"规划建言的党代表，马石光深耕快递业22年，始终以"桥梁"姿态连接党与基层、个人与行业。考无 人机操控员执照，正是他锚定行业未来的又一次探索。 编者按 在推动行业发展的道路上，马石光的脚步从未停歇。在省"十五五"规划建议座谈会上，他提出的推动快 递行业与制造业"两业融合"的建议得到肯定。 ...

Investment Summary - The transportation industry has shown a significant underperformance compared to the broader market, ranking among the lowest in terms of growth within the Shenwan primary industry indices as of December 8, 2025 [15][16] - The implementation of anti-involution policies has positively impacted the fundamentals of certain segments within the transportation sector, particularly benefiting the aviation and express delivery sectors [26][30] 2026 Outlook - The focus for 2026 remains on sectors benefiting from anti-involution policies and high-certainty stocks, with a long-term impact expected from these policies on stock price movements [5][34] - Key sectors to watch include aviation, express delivery, and regional shipping, while high-dividend and low-debt companies are expected to attract more investor interest in weaker cyclical areas [5][34] Express Delivery Sector - The express delivery industry has seen a recovery in profitability driven by rising single-package prices, with major companies like YTO Express and Shentong Express showing significant improvements [6][35] - The trend of price competition has been curtailed, leading to a decrease in package volume growth as companies focus on maintaining service quality and profitability [6][38] - The competitive strategies among companies have diverged, with YTO and Shentong performing strongly, while Yunda has struggled with profitability and market share [42][53] Aviation Sector - The aviation sector has experienced a notable improvement in performance since Q2 2025, with major airlines reporting increased profitability compared to the previous year [63][64] - The focus for 2026 will be on the transition from high passenger load factors to higher ticket prices, supported by controlled supply and strong demand [69][87] - Major airlines are expected to maintain cautious procurement strategies, with a projected fleet growth of around 5% in 2026 [69][80] Highway Sector - The highway sector has faced significant adjustments in stock prices, leading to a more rational market approach towards high-dividend investments [8][4.1] - Following substantial adjustments, the attractiveness of highway stocks has improved, with a focus on companies with high dividend ratios and low debt levels [8][4.3]

Core Viewpoint - Shenzhou Digital Holdings plans to sell up to 28.8273 million shares of its subsidiary, Shenzhou Information, representing approximately 2.9543% of its total share capital, to optimize capital allocation and focus on core AI and supply chain sectors [1] Group 1: Company Strategy - The company aims to become a leader in AI solutions centered around supply chains, emphasizing its strategic direction in the "AI + Supply Chain" sector [2] - Shenzhou Digital is enhancing its high-quality supply chain services while extending its service boundaries to offer comprehensive solutions for AI capability development [2] - The company has adopted a "Data × AI" strategy to create a competitive edge by focusing on high-quality industry data, addressing a significant market pain point [2] Group 2: Product Development - Shenzhou Digital launched the "Yanyun Infinity" platform in collaboration with Peking University, which integrates data processing capabilities for intelligent decision-making [3] - The company has over 20 years of experience in the supply chain sector, particularly in consumer electronics and fast-moving consumer goods, which supports its AI technology applications [3] Group 3: Ecosystem Collaboration - Shenzhou Digital has formed strategic partnerships with 15 companies this year, including leading firms in the embodied intelligence and logistics sectors, to enhance its ecosystem [3] - The company initiated a logistics data open interconnection initiative with Beijing Jiaotong University to broaden its industry data sources [3] Group 4: Financial Implications - The cash inflow from the share sale is expected to accelerate the company's progress towards its goal of becoming a leader in AI solutions centered around supply chains [4] - The company is committed to integrating AI technology into key sectors of the real economy, promoting AI as a core productivity driver [4]

Market Overview - The logistics sector increased by 0.67% on December 10, with Longzhou Co., Ltd. leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3900.5, down 0.23%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13316.42, up 0.29% [1] Top Performers in Logistics Sector - Longzhou Co., Ltd. (002682) closed at 10.49, up 9.96% with a trading volume of 3.12 million shares and a transaction value of 3.12 billion [1] - Jiacheng International (603535) closed at 11.09, up 4.72% with a trading volume of 130,100 shares [1] - Eastern Airlines Logistics (601156) closed at 16.80, up 3.51% with a trading volume of 165,000 shares [1] Underperformers in Logistics Sector - Tiens Co., Ltd. (002800) closed at 14.92, down 3.12% with a trading volume of 52,500 shares [2] - Haicheng Bangda (603836) closed at 14.46, down 2.03% with a trading volume of 59,700 shares [2] - Dongfang Jiasheng (002889) closed at 16.15, down 2.00% with a trading volume of 98,900 shares [2] Capital Flow Analysis - The logistics sector experienced a net outflow of 429 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors saw a net inflow of 344 million yuan [2] - The overall capital flow indicates a mixed sentiment, with institutional investors withdrawing funds while retail investors are actively buying [2] Individual Stock Capital Flow - SF Holding (002352) had a net inflow of 1.05 billion yuan from institutional investors, but saw outflows from both retail and speculative investors [3] - Jianfa Co., Ltd. (600153) had a net inflow of 26.63 million yuan from institutional investors, with outflows from speculative and retail investors [3] - Xiamen Guomao (600755) recorded a net inflow of 19.93 million yuan from institutional investors, while also experiencing outflows from other investor types [3]

Core Viewpoint - Shenzhou Holdings plans to sell up to 28.83 million shares of its subsidiary Shenzhou Information, representing approximately 2.95% of its total share capital, to optimize capital allocation and focus on core AI and supply chain strategies [1][2] Group 1: Share Sale Announcement - The sale will occur within three months after the announcement date, with proceeds aimed at supporting business development and general working capital [1] - Post-transaction, Shenzhou Holdings will retain a 39.92% stake in Shenzhou Information, which will continue to be classified as a subsidiary [1] Group 2: AI Strategy and Product Development - Shenzhou Holdings is enhancing its focus on AI, particularly through a "Data×AI" strategy that emphasizes high-quality industry data to create a competitive edge [2] - The company launched the "Yanyun Infinity" platform, which integrates data processing capabilities for intelligent decision-making, based on award-winning technology [2] - An enterprise-level supply chain intelligent agent cluster named "Xiao Jin" was introduced, improving query efficiency by 90% and data analysis efficiency by 70% [2] Group 3: Ecosystem Development - Shenzhou Holdings is building a positive ecosystem by empowering partners with its technology while also integrating high-quality resources to address its own shortcomings [3] - The company has formed strategic partnerships with 15 entities this year, including leading firms in embodied intelligence and logistics [3] - The combination of the "Yanyun Infinity" platform, the "Xiao Jin" solution, and ecosystem collaborations aims to solidify Shenzhou Holdings' position as a leader in AI solutions centered around supply chains [3]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the perplexing logistics routes taken by express deliveries in China, highlighting a case where a package of lamb from Gansu to Chengdu took an indirect route via Nanjing, raising questions about efficiency and resource allocation in modern logistics [1][2][3]. Group 1: Logistics Operations - The delivery route for the lamb involved a journey of over 2900 kilometers instead of the direct 600 kilometers, illustrating a complex logistics operation that seems counterintuitive to consumers [1][2]. - The logistics process involves packages being routed through major hubs, such as Nanjing, which serves as a central distribution point for express deliveries in China [5][6]. - The "Y" shaped route taken by the package symbolizes the modern logistics challenges where consumers question the efficiency of such operations despite technological advancements [2][3]. Group 2: Economic Considerations - The logistics companies utilize an "axle-radial distribution model" to consolidate packages at central hubs, which helps in achieving economies of scale and reducing costs [6][7]. - The cost of shipping a single package is significantly higher when not consolidated, emphasizing the need for logistics companies to optimize routes for cost efficiency [8][9]. - The logistics industry's approach to routing is a calculated decision balancing cost, efficiency, and network stability, which may appear irrational to consumers but is strategically sound [7][8]. Group 3: Hub Selection and Strategy - Major logistics companies, including China Post and SF Express, have strategically chosen hub locations based on factors like traffic infrastructure, regional economic potential, and government planning [9][10]. - The establishment of logistics hubs in cities like Nanjing and Hubei is part of a broader national strategy to enhance logistics efficiency across the country [11][12]. - The future of logistics in China aims to create a more interconnected and efficient network that minimizes unnecessary detours while maximizing operational efficiency [12][13].

手机号 15769519125 2025 年 中国航空货运行业市 场研究报告 主编：雷静兰 编辑：郭宇昂 商业合作： collaboration@shuoyuanconsulting.com 1 / 25 1 行业概述 1.1 行业定义与范围 1.1.1 航空货运的定义 航空货运是指利用各类航空运输工具，如货运飞机、客机腹舱等，将货物从一 个地点安全、迅速地运送到另一个地点的专业物流活动。相比传统的陆运和海 运，航空货运以其运输速度快、服务高效、覆盖范围广泛等显著优势，成为满 足现代社会对时效性和安全性要求的重要物流方式。航空货运主要承担高价值 商品、紧急物资、易腐易损品以及体积较小但重量较轻的货物运输任务，例如 电子产品、医药制品、生鲜食品、贵重金属及重要文件等。航空货运不仅仅局 限于货物的空中运输，还包括货物的全流程管理和配套服务。这些服务涵盖货 物的装卸操作、仓储管理、分拣分配、包装加固、报关报检、运输保险及最后 一公里配送等环节，确保货物在运输过程中的安全性和完整性。同时，现代航 空货运广泛应用信息化管理系统，如货物跟踪追踪、电子单证、智能仓储和大 数据分析，以提升运营效率和客户体验。作为现代物流体系 ...

Core Viewpoint - The current market valuation of the express delivery industry is considered relatively high compared to the performance expected in 2026, with a focus on growth drivers for performance recovery in 2026 [1] Express Delivery Industry Core Data - In October 2025, the national express delivery volume reached 17.6 billion pieces, showing a year-on-year growth of 7.9%, with a decline of 4.9 percentage points compared to the previous month [1] - The average revenue per delivery piece was 7.48 yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 3.0%, with a narrowing decline of 1.9 percentage points compared to the previous month [1] - The total revenue from express delivery business amounted to 131.67 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 4.7%, with a decline of 2.5 percentage points compared to the previous month [1] Consumer Data - From January to October, the total retail sales reached 41.2 trillion yuan, growing by 4.3% year-on-year, with October retail sales at 4.6 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.9% [2] - The cumulative online retail sales of physical goods from January to October reached 10.4 trillion yuan, growing by 6.3% year-on-year, with October online retail sales at 1.25 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.9% [2] - The e-commerce penetration rate for the first ten months was 25.2%, down by 0.7 percentage points year-on-year, while the October penetration rate was 26.9%, up by 0.5 percentage points year-on-year [2] Listed Express Delivery Companies Core Data - The growth rate of delivery volume varies among companies, with SF Express benefiting from proactive business development, achieving a year-on-year increase of 26.3% in October 2025, while Yunda, Shentong, and YTO experienced changes of +12.8%, -5.1%, and +4.0% respectively [3] - The average revenue per delivery piece for SF Express, YTO, Yunda, and Shentong in October was 13.18, 2.23, 2.11, and 2.18 yuan respectively, with year-on-year changes of -10.0%, -3.5%, +4.5%, and +7.4% [3] - In October, the express delivery revenues for SF Express, YTO, Yunda, and Shentong were 20.1 billion, 6.2 billion, 4.5 billion, and 5.0 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year changes of +13.7%, +9.0%, -0.9%, and +11.8% [3] - The market share of Yunda and Shentong increased, with their respective market shares in October being 13.3%, reflecting a year-on-year change of -0.5% and -0.1 percentage points [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the transportation industry [10] Core Insights - The express delivery sector is benefiting from a reduction in competition, leading to a recovery in delivery prices and an increase in market share for leading companies such as Zhongtong Express and YTO Express [2][8] - The integration of cultural tourism and civil aviation is expected to boost air travel demand, supported by new policies aimed at enhancing accessibility for senior travelers and increasing inbound tourism routes [2][40] - In the shipping sector, Hapag-Lloyd's proposed acquisition of ZIM indicates a potential opening for mergers and acquisitions in a challenging market environment [2][7] Summary by Sections Express Delivery - The express delivery volume reached 4.01 billion pieces from November 24 to November 30, showing a year-on-year increase of 2.4%. The average price of express services has been rising due to a reduction in aggressive pricing strategies among e-commerce platforms [8][16] - The market is witnessing a restructuring with leading companies gaining market share as low-cost competition diminishes [8] Air Travel - Domestic passenger volume has shown a 6% year-on-year increase, while international passenger volume has increased by 11% [6][19] - The average domestic seat occupancy rate has improved by 1.6 percentage points year-on-year, and international occupancy has increased by 0.4 percentage points [23][28] - The new policies from the Ministry of Culture and Tourism and the Civil Aviation Administration aim to enhance travel accessibility and promote inbound tourism, which is expected to sustain air travel demand [40][55] Shipping - The average VLCC-TCE rate has decreased by 5.6% to $115,000 per day, while the SCFI index for foreign trade shipping has dropped by 0.4% to 1,398 points [7][19] - The BDI index has risen by 6.5% to 2,727 points, driven by increased shipments of iron ore from Brazil and the upcoming peak season for bauxite shipments from West Africa [7][19] - The proposed acquisition by Hapag-Lloyd is seen as a strategic move to enhance capacity and market share amid declining shipping rates [7][19]