编者按: 2026年作为"十五五"的开局之年，中国经济与A股走向备受瞩目。 多地把2026年经济增长目标设定在4.5%-5.5%，机构预测中值为4.8%，经济稳中向好态势明确。在一系列政策发力见效背景下，中国的投资有 望企稳，消费则稳步回升，出口继续保持韧劲，物价水平或延续温和回暖的势头。 货币政策将继续保持宽松基调，同时在去美元化趋势不断加强的国际背景下，人民币汇率有望继续稳中走强，为A股高质量"慢牛""长牛"格局 奠定了坚实基础。 廖宗魁/文 2026年作为"十五五"的开局之年，中国经济能否延续2024年下半年以来的持续复苏势头，A股能否连续三年走牛，全球经济和国际市场又会如 何演进，成为当下投资者较为关心的问题。 从已经召开的地方两会看，绝大多数省份把2026年经济增长目标设定在4.5%—5.5%，意味着即将召开的全国两会很可能把2026年全国经济增 长目标定在5%左右。《证券市场周刊》"远见杯"宏观经济预测调查（以下简称"预测调查"）显示，机构们对2026年中国GDP增长预测中值为 4.8%，经济稳中向好的态势延续。 在一系列政策发力见效的背景下，中国的投资有望企稳，消费则稳步回升，出口继续保持韧劲， ...

2026年2月6日，中国农业银行（601288）发布公告称，中国农业银行将于2026年2月9日发售2026年记账 式附息（一期）国债（续发）（债券简称"26附息国债01（续1）"），债券托管机构为"中央国债登记结 算有限责任公司"。 具体办理流程请参见中国农业银行网银、掌银渠道产品介绍或咨询中国农业银行营业网点及95599热 线。 为保护投资者权益，中央国债登记结算有限责任公司提供账务复核查询服务，投资者可于债券上市日 起，拨打中央国债登记结算有限责任公司余额复核查询电话，根据语音提示输入债券托管账号，核对债 券余额信息。查询电话：400-666-5000。 本次中国农业银行分销的债券代码为260001X1，分销期为2月9日，上市日为2月11日。分销期过后的上 市首日续发债券260001X1代码将变更为260001。 26附息国债01为1年期固定利率债券，剩余期限为0.93年，到期一次还本付息。发行人于2027年1月15日 （节假日顺延）偿还本金（债券面值）并支付利息。根据2026年2月6日银行间债券市场招标结果，本期 债券到期收益率为1.2661%，全价为100.04元/份。 此次债券的发售对象为全国范围内 ...

目前，"2025年度农商行十大杰出董事长"已经确定，江南农商银行董事长庄广强入选。 运营商财经网讯 庄广强是业内公认的"实干派"。早年间，他曾在供职于农行；2005年后进入常熟农商行体系内任职，从 副行长逐步晋升至董事长，曾主导推进普惠金融业务发展。 运营商财经网副总经理康锐表示，庄广强的到任，曾被视为江南农商行冲刺上市、迈向"万亿级银行"的 重要信号。后续发展值得持续关注。 运营商财经（官方微信公众号yyscjrd）—— 主流财经网站，一家全面覆盖科技、金融、证券、汽车、 房产、食品、医药、日化、酒业及其他各种消费品网站。 2023年11月后，庄广强正式进入江南农商行工作，后担任该行党委书记、董事长等职。 ...

金融地产ETF国投瑞银（159933）业绩比较基准为沪深300金融地产指数，管理人为国投瑞银基金管理 有限公司，基金经理为赵建、钱瀚，成立（2013-09-17）以来回报为201.43%，近一个月回报 为-6.36%。 2月9日，金融地产ETF国投瑞银（159933）开盘跌0.66%，报2.989元。金融地产ETF国投瑞银 （159933）重仓股方面，中国平安开盘涨0.82%，招商银行涨0.00%，兴业银行涨0.00%，东方财富涨 0.66%，中信证券涨0.50%，工商银行跌0.14%，国泰海通涨1.00%，农业银行跌0.60%，交通银行跌 0.15%，浦发银行跌0.10%。 来源：新浪基金∞工作室 声明：市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文基于第三方数据库自动发布，不代表新浪财经观点，任何在本文 出现的信息均只作为参考，不构成个人投资建议。如有出入请以实际公告为准。如有疑问，请联系 biz@staff.sina.com.cn。 ...

Market Sentiment - The current market sentiment score is 44, indicating a "neutral" stance [6][9][21] - Historical trends suggest that when the sentiment score is below or close to 50, the market tends to find support, while scores above 80 may indicate resistance [9][21] Hot Themes Tracking Electric Grid Equipment - The global demand for high-power and high-stability transformers is driven by the significant energy consumption of AI data centers, leading to a severe supply-demand imbalance, particularly in the U.S. where delivery times have reached 127 weeks [6] - China's State Grid is set to invest 4 trillion yuan during the 14th Five-Year Plan, focusing on ultra-high voltage and smart distribution networks, providing long-term order support for the industry [6] - Related stocks include China Western Power (601179) and TBEA Co., Ltd. (600089) [6] Banking Sector - Bank stocks are characterized by high dividend yields, with the CSI Bank Index yielding 6.02%, significantly higher than the 10-year government bond yield [6] - In a slowing economy with increased market volatility, bank stocks are becoming important investment targets for long-term funds such as insurance and social security [6] - Related stocks include Agricultural Bank of China (601288) and Ningbo Bank (002142) [6] Consumer Sector - The macro policy for 2026 emphasizes expanding domestic demand and promoting consumption, which is viewed positively by the market [6] - The consumer market is undergoing significant changes, characterized by three new trends: "emotional value" (self-consumption in gold and jewelry), "extreme cost-performance ratio" (bulk snacks and discount stores), and "efficiency innovation" (AI e-commerce and brand expansion) [6] - Related stocks include Yonghui Superstores (601933) and Wangfujing (600859) [6]

Core Viewpoint - The Central Financial Work Conference emphasizes the importance of advancing high-level financial openness in China, aiming to enhance the competitiveness and influence of the Shanghai International Financial Center while better serving the real economy [1]. Group 1: Institutional Opening - Institutional opening is the core of high-level financial openness, focusing on aligning domestic financial regulations and market rules with international best practices to create a stable and transparent business environment [2]. - The recent upgrade of the free trade account system in the Shanghai Free Trade Zone is seen as a significant step towards high-level financial openness, allowing pilot enterprises to conduct more flexible cross-border payments [2]. - The achievements of institutional opening are reflected in the enhanced service capabilities and international competitiveness of Chinese banks, enabling them to provide tangible cross-border financial conveniences to enterprises [2]. Group 2: Cross-Border Service Capabilities - Chinese banks' global service networks and comprehensive capabilities are key indicators of the effectiveness of institutional opening, providing one-stop services for enterprises to connect with international capital markets [3]. - The steady rise of the renminbi's international status injects core momentum into the opening system, as it has become the primary settlement currency for China's external payments and ranks among the top three trade financing and payment currencies globally [3]. Group 3: Financial Infrastructure for Global Operations - The banking sector is transitioning from traditional settlement and financing services to becoming comprehensive service partners that cover the entire cycle of investment, financing, risk management, and treasury management for enterprises going global [6]. - A notable case is the successful syndicate loan of 3.78 billion yuan provided by the Bank of China for Zijin Mining's acquisition of a gold mine in Ghana, showcasing how banks can support enterprises in managing cross-border transaction risks [6]. Group 4: Risk Management and Compliance - The Chinese financial regulatory authorities are pushing for a transformation in anti-money laundering efforts from mere compliance to proactive risk prevention, requiring banks to enhance their risk management capabilities [13]. - The establishment of a global risk monitoring and early warning system is essential for banks to manage various risks, including country and geopolitical risks, as they expand their international operations [17]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The future of China's banking sector will focus on deepening institutional opening and actively participating in international financial governance, with an emphasis on aligning with high-standard international rules [19]. - Banks are encouraged to transform from passive fund providers to active industry collaborators, embedding cross-border financial services into the global supply chains of emerging industries [20]. - Building a diverse, transparent, and risk-controlled open financial ecosystem is crucial for enhancing the international competitiveness of Chinese banks and supporting the implementation of national strategies [22].

Group 1: Economic Development and Commodity Market Trends - The discussions during the local two sessions reflect new trends in the commodity market, emphasizing "optimizing commodity resource allocation," "high-level opening up," and "enhancing supply chain resilience" as key issues for regional economic development and the national unified market [1] - The Shanghai Putuo District aims to create a trillion-level commodity trading platform, integrating commodity trade into the overall construction of the Yangtze River Delta industrial innovation belt [2][3] Group 2: Internationalization and Service Enhancement - Guangdong's strategy focuses on upgrading from "policy-based opening" to "capability-based and systematic opening," aiming to enhance international competitiveness and sustainability in the modern industrial system [4][5] - The need for a comprehensive service system to support medium-sized enterprises with innovation capabilities but lacking international experience is highlighted, suggesting the establishment of a "new quality productivity output base" to provide one-stop support for companies going abroad [5] Group 3: Digital Transformation and Financial Integration - In Jiangxi, the proposal to build a digital platform aims to link various industry chain participants, reducing supply chain costs and enhancing overall efficiency through the integration of logistics, finance, and information flows [7] - The implementation of an "industry + technology + finance" strategy by Jiujiang Bank is designed to support the digital transformation of industrial clusters, providing comprehensive service solutions for key industries [7] Group 4: Infrastructure and Logistics Development - Yunnan's "Golden Passage" initiative aims to address high logistics costs and improve the flow of bulk goods, with significant achievements in trade partnerships and a 10.2% increase in total trade volume [9][10] - The focus on creating a cross-border financial service center and a digital trade service platform is intended to enhance the efficiency of logistics and supply chain management, facilitating the transition from a "goods channel" to a "supply chain hub" [10]

Core Insights - The report focuses on fixed income + products issued by wealth management companies, highlighting superior performing products available for investors through distribution channels [1] - A ranking of products is provided based on their annualized performance over the last month, three months, and six months, with a particular emphasis on the three-month annualized yield to reflect their performance amid recent market fluctuations [1] Distribution Channels - The report includes a list of 28 distribution institutions, which consist of major banks such as Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, Bank of China, Agricultural Bank of China, and others [1] Product Performance - The ranking showcases various products with their respective annualized yields, indicating the performance metrics over different time frames, such as 2.64% for one month and 9.11% for three months for a specific product [5] - The data is sourced from the South Finance Financial Terminal, with statistics as of February 5, 2026, providing a snapshot of the current market offerings [5][10]

Core Insights - The article focuses on the performance of minimum holding period RMB public offering products, ranking them based on annualized returns for holding periods of 7, 14, 30, and 60 days [1] Group 1: 7-Day Holding Period Products - The top-performing product is from Minsheng Bank with an annualized return of 7.56% [5] - Other notable products include a 6.98% return from Shanghai Bank and a 6.04% return from Minsheng Bank [5] Group 2: 14-Day Holding Period Products - The leading product is from Minsheng Bank with a return of 7.39% [8] - China Bank follows with a return of 4.44% [8] Group 3: 30-Day Holding Period Products - The highest return is 18.14% from Hangzhou Bank [12] - Other significant returns include 12.34% from Minsheng Bank and 9.72% from Minsheng Bank [12][13] Group 4: 60-Day Holding Period Products - The top product is from China Bank with a return of 9.33% [15] - Other products include 5.95% from Shanghai Bank and 5.54% from Huaxia Bank [15][16]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Buy" [4] Core Views - The trade return ratio has turned positive again, and the service trade deficit has significantly narrowed [16][18] - The cross-border capital flow is expected to gradually return, positively impacting domestic liquidity [5][19] - The service trade deficit for December 2025 was 966 billion CNY, a year-on-year decrease of 466 billion CNY, with a full-year deficit of 13,760 billion CNY, down 2,544 billion CNY, approximately 16% [18] Summary by Sections 1. Current Observation - The State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE) released data on China's international balance of payments for December 2025, indicating a potential impact on the central bank's willingness to settle foreign exchange [16] - The trade return ratio is at a historical high, with a monthly unconverted trade net outflow of 447 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 1,392 billion CNY [17] 2. Arbitrage Trading Returns - The arbitrage trading return rate for 10Y US Treasury bonds in CNY has dropped significantly to -1.77%, indicating a shift in cross-border capital dynamics [17] 3. Service Trade Deficit - The service trade deficit has narrowed significantly, with major contributions from improved policies for foreign visitors, reduced international shipping costs, and enhanced competitiveness in high-tech services [18] 4. Cross-Border Liquidity Outlook - Despite the recent appointment of Kevin Warsh as the next Federal Reserve Chair, the trend of cross-border capital return is expected to continue, influenced by the Fed's monetary policy stance [19][21] - The short-term liquidity in the US remains tight, with limited space for balance sheet reduction, while long-term prospects depend on economic performance [20][21]