1月21日，睿远基金、银华基金等基金公司披露旗下基金的2025年四季报，傅鹏博、李晓星等知名基金经理2025 年四季度调仓情况随之曝光。 傅鹏博减持了基本面趋势偏弱的公司，增持数据中心液冷、存力和算力的相关公司；李晓星则加仓了港股互联网 和消费股，减持了部分港股金融股。 傅鹏博表示，上市公司2025年年报预披露将于2026年1月底完成，景气度高的AI、有色金属、锂电材料等板块预 计会有较高增长，市场对此已有定价。 李晓星认为，2026年权益市场总体机会大于风险，AI仍是全球科技创新的主线，预计国内互联网大厂的业绩将保 持稳定的增长，港股科技巨头可能是产业趋势和基本面趋势共振的方向。 傅鹏博增持 数据中心液冷、存力和算力相关公司 1月21日，知名基金经理傅鹏博、朱璘管理的睿远成长价值披露2025年四季报。 2025年四季报显示，该基金的前十大重仓股变动较小，迈为股份代替中国移动新进入其前十大重仓股。此外，该 基金增持了寒武纪，减持了新易盛、胜宏科技、宁德时代、腾讯控股、东山精密、立讯精密、阿里巴巴、巨星科 技。 | 序 | 股票代码 | 股票名称 | 数量(股) | 公允价值(元) | 占基金资产净 | | - ...

Group 1: Fund Manager Insights - Fund manager Fu Pengbo reduced holdings in companies with weak fundamentals and increased investments in data center liquid cooling, storage, and computing-related companies [1][2] - Fu noted that the annual reports of listed companies for 2025 will be pre-disclosed by the end of January 2026, with high-growth sectors like AI, non-ferrous metals, and lithium battery materials expected to show significant growth [1][3] - Li Xiaoxing increased positions in Hong Kong internet and consumer stocks while reducing holdings in some Hong Kong financial stocks, believing that overall opportunities in the equity market for 2026 outweigh risks [1][4] Group 2: Fund Performance and Adjustments - Fu's fund saw minor changes in its top ten holdings, with Maiwei Co. replacing China Mobile, and increased positions in Han's Laser while reducing stakes in companies like Ningde Times and Tencent [2][3] - Li's fund reported a stock position of 88.55% at the end of Q4 2025, a decrease of 4.54 percentage points from Q3 2025, with new entries in the top ten holdings including Tencent, Alibaba, and Meituan [4][5] Group 3: Market Outlook - Fu and Zhu believe that the stock market's activity is increasing, with a "spring excitement" arriving early, and expect high growth in sectors like AI and semiconductor manufacturing [3][6] - Li highlighted that AI remains the main line of global technological innovation, with significant capital expenditure growth in the AI sector, and domestic internet companies expected to maintain stable growth [6][7] - The consumer sector's performance needs dynamic observation, with many quality consumer stocks showing favorable dividend yields [6][7] Group 4: Sector-Specific Insights - The pharmaceutical sector experienced fluctuations in Q4 2025 due to previously high market expectations and capital flowing to other popular sectors, but long-term prospects for domestic innovative drugs remain positive [7] - The CRO and CDMO segments are showing clear signs of recovery in domestic and international demand, indicating an industry turning point [7]

Core Viewpoint - The report highlights significant changes in the investment strategies of Ruiyuan Fund's star fund managers, with notable adjustments in stock holdings and performance metrics for the fourth quarter of 2025. Group 1: Fund Performance and Adjustments - Ruiyuan Growth Value Mixed Fund experienced a net redemption of 136.2 million shares, marking the second-highest redemption in its history, with total net assets decreasing from 23.629 billion yuan to 21.087 billion yuan [3][4] - The fund's stock allocation increased slightly from 89.93% to 90.48%, while the proportion of Hong Kong stocks in the fund's net value decreased from 27.92% to 20.14% [3][4] - Ruiyuan Balanced Value Three-Year Holding Fund's stock allocation reached a three-year high of 90.66%, with a slight increase in the proportion of Hong Kong stocks to 41.99% [10] Group 2: Stock Holdings and Changes - The top ten holdings of Ruiyuan Growth Value Mixed Fund included New Yisheng, Shenghong Technology, and Ningde Times, with New Yisheng seeing a 22.73% reduction in holdings [4][5] - Ruiyuan Balanced Value Three-Year Holding Fund saw significant changes, with the re-entry of Midea Group into the top ten holdings and reductions in holdings of companies like Lixun Precision and China Ping An [10][12] - The fund managers noted a shift in focus towards sectors like photovoltaic and semiconductor high-end equipment manufacturing, while reducing exposure to companies with weak fundamentals [6][10] Group 3: Future Outlook and Strategy - The fund managers expressed optimism about the market, anticipating that the return on equity assets will remain attractive compared to other asset classes, with potential returns exceeding 10% for leading companies [11][13] - They plan to focus on companies with strong fundamentals and competitive advantages, particularly those expanding overseas, as this is expected to drive future growth [13][14] - The report indicates a structural market environment with limited risks of significant downturns, while opportunities for excess returns remain [8][13]

Core Viewpoint - The company, Juxing Technology, forecasts a net profit for 2025 between 2.419 billion and 2.764 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 5% to 20%, despite challenges from increased tariffs and a turbulent global trade environment [2] Group 1: Financial Performance - The company's net profit excluding non-recurring gains is expected to be between 2.31 billion and 2.65 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 0.2% to 15.2% year-on-year [2] - Revenue is projected to remain stable, with the company's global production network and optimized product and channel structure serving as key support [2] - The second quarter of 2025 will see pressure on domestic production due to the U.S. "reciprocal tariff" policy, affecting delivery schedules and increasing costs [2] Group 2: Global Production Strategy - The company has established a global production layout with 23 production bases, including 12 overseas, to mitigate trade cycle fluctuations [3] - Significant investments in overseas production, such as 120 million yuan in Vietnam and 150 million yuan in Thailand, highlight the strategic priority of shifting production to Southeast Asia [3] - By the end of 2025, Southeast Asian production is expected to cover 90% of exports to the U.S., providing a crucial buffer against tariff barriers [2][3] Group 3: Product and Channel Upgrades - The optimization of product structure, particularly the explosive growth in the electric tools segment, is a core driver of profit growth [4] - The electric tools segment achieved revenue of 742 million yuan in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 56.03%, with a gross margin improvement of 2.18 percentage points [4] - The company has invested 175 million yuan in R&D, holding 2,904 patents, which supports product upgrades and market position [4] Group 4: E-commerce and Direct Sales - The optimization of channel structure has expanded the company's profit margins, with cross-border e-commerce direct sales becoming a key strategy to offset tariff costs [5] - The company has achieved over 30% growth in its cross-border e-commerce business, with online revenue increasing by 12% year-on-year [5] - The company’s self-owned brand revenue is approaching 50%, significantly improving gross margins compared to OEM business [5] Group 5: Future Outlook - Short-term disturbances are expected in Q4 2025 due to currency fluctuations and additional costs from U.S. factory relocations [6] - The company anticipates a return to stable growth in 2026, supported by new business and product developments [6] - The global production and supply chain system positions the company to respond flexibly to market demands, aiming to increase market share in the global DIY tools market [6]

Group 1: Commercial Aerospace - The commercial aerospace sector is transitioning from "single satellite testing" to "constellation networking," with significant growth expected as China develops reusable rocket technology and increases satellite launches [5][6][7] - The "Zhuque-3" rocket has a launch capacity of 21.3 tons, surpassing the Falcon 9's initial recovery capacity, indicating a strong foundation for future satellite launches [6] - The market potential for domestic satellite launches is substantial, with an estimated annual demand for approximately 4,000 satellites, suggesting a significant growth trajectory for the industry [6][7] Group 2: Automotive Industry - Spring Power (603129.SH) is projected to achieve net profits of 1.907 billion, 2.371 billion, and 2.805 billion yuan from 2025 to 2027, with a target market capitalization of 49.8 billion yuan based on a 21x PE ratio for 2026 [2][13] - The company is positioned as a leader in all-terrain vehicles and large-displacement motorcycles, with competitive advantages in performance and cost-effectiveness compared to international competitors [13][14] - The electric two-wheeler segment is expected to contribute significantly to revenue growth, with sales reaching 250,500 units and revenue of 872 million yuan in the first half of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 652.06% [15] Group 3: Financial Sector - The introduction of the "Derivatives Trading Supervision Management Measures" aims to regulate the derivatives market, enhancing the legal framework and promoting the development of the derivatives business [32][33][34] - The measures emphasize the importance of derivatives in managing risks and supporting the real economy, indicating a growing focus on regulatory oversight in the financial sector [32][34] - Major securities firms are expected to benefit from the regulatory changes, particularly those with strengths in derivatives trading, as the market becomes more structured and opportunities for growth arise [34] Group 4: Macro Financial Data - In December, new loans totaled 910 billion yuan, with a year-on-year decrease compared to the previous year, while corporate loans showed signs of recovery [18][19] - The social financing growth rate slowed, primarily due to government financing constraints, indicating a need for policy adjustments to stimulate economic activity [19][20] - The central bank's recent rate cuts and liquidity measures suggest a continued effort to support economic growth and maintain stable financing conditions [20][40]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" [4] Core Insights - The report highlights significant advancements in commercial aerospace led by China Aerospace Science and Technology Corporation, with a focus on reusable rocket technology and the development of new industries such as commercial aerospace and low-altitude economy [5][6] - The 2026 Nuclear Fusion Technology and Industry Conference successfully took place, resulting in major procurement projects and the establishment of a fusion financial institution alliance to enhance the integration of industry and capital [5][6] - The report indicates a strong performance in the engineering machinery sector, with December 2025 excavator sales reaching 23,095 units, a year-on-year increase of 19.2%, and loader sales increasing by 30.0% [5][6] Summary by Sections Market Overview - From January 12 to January 16, 2026, the mechanical equipment index increased by 2.10%, outperforming the CSI 300 index, which decreased by 0.86% [7] - The mechanical equipment sector ranked 6th among 31 industries in terms of performance during this period [7] Sub-Industry Data - Engineering Machinery: December 2025 excavator sales were 23,095 units (+19.2% YoY), with exports of 10,331 units (+10.9% YoY). Loader sales were 12,236 units (+30.0% YoY), with exports of 6,945 units (+41.5% YoY) [5][6] - Industrial Robots: The report recommends companies such as Hengli Hydraulic and Changying Precision for investment [5] - AI Infrastructure: Companies like Ice Wheel Environment and Hanzhong Precision are highlighted for their potential in the liquid cooling sector [5] Company Profit Forecasts - The report provides a detailed valuation summary for key mechanical companies, indicating a positive outlook for companies like Hengli Hydraulic and Sany Heavy Industry, with recommendations to "Overweight" these stocks based on their projected earnings growth [5][6][81]

上市公司：中集集团（000039），沈阳机床（000410），冰山冷热（000530），宝塔实业（000595）， 中核科技（000777），冰轮环境（000811），秦川机床（000837），博深股份（002282），巨力索具 （002342），泰尔股份（002347），江苏神通（002438），巨星科技（002444），中南文化 （002445），宝馨科技（002514），日发精机（002520） 2025年1-11月，通用设备制造业企业数（以下数据涉及的企业，均为规模以上工业企业，从2011年起， 规模以上工业企业起点标准由原来的年主营业务收入500万元提高到年主营业务收入2000万元）为37917 个，和上年同期相比，增加了1634个，同比增长4.5%，占工业总企业的比重为7.21%。 2016-2025年1-11月通用设备制造业企业数统计图 数据来源：国家统计局，智研咨询整理 相关报告：智研咨询发布的《2025-2031年中国通用设备行业市场全景调研及发展趋向研判报告》 知前沿，问智研。智研咨询是中国一流产业咨询机构，十数年持续深耕产业研究领域，提供深度产业研 究报告、商业计划书、可行性研究报告及定 ...

Group 1 - The cross-border e-commerce sector is playing an increasingly critical role in the high-quality development of foreign trade, with projections indicating that by 2025, China's cross-border e-commerce imports and exports will reach 2.75 trillion yuan, a 69.7% increase from 2020 [1] - Recent favorable policies have been introduced to support the cross-border e-commerce industry, including tax exemptions for retail exports in designated comprehensive pilot zones and support for building overseas warehouses [1] - The Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) is expected to provide significant benefits to companies, particularly in Zhejiang, by facilitating tariff reductions and enhancing access to regional supply chains and overseas markets [1] Group 2 - The cross-border e-commerce industry is entering a mature phase characterized by a dual focus on efficiency and brand development, with technology and brand expansion expected to drive growth over the next 3 to 5 years [2] - Companies are increasingly pursuing brand transformation to address homogenization in the market, with firms like Hangzhou Juxing Technology Co., Ltd. projecting a net profit of 2.419 to 2.764 billion yuan for 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 5% to 20% [2] - Zhejiang China Commodity City Group has signed a strategic investment agreement with the African B2B e-commerce platform Egatee, enhancing its digital trade capabilities and expanding its cross-border service network [2] Group 3 - Localized strategies are becoming essential for companies to reduce costs and improve efficiency in response to global tariff adjustments and changing consumer demands, as seen with Lege Ergonomics Technology Co., Ltd. initiating its overseas warehouse strategy in the U.S. [3] - Companies are focusing on overseas financing to invest in global after-sales systems and R&D laboratories, strengthening their global brand presence [3] - The cross-border e-commerce industry is transitioning from scale to refinement, with growth opportunities identified in emerging markets like Southeast Asia and high-value product categories [3]

Core Insights - Cross-border e-commerce is playing an increasingly critical role in the high-quality development of foreign trade, with projections indicating that by 2025, China's cross-border e-commerce imports and exports will reach 2.75 trillion yuan, a 69.7% increase from 2020 [1] Group 1: Industry Growth and Policy Support - The growth of cross-border e-commerce is supported by innovative breakthroughs in trade models, operational forms, and service systems [1] - Recent favorable policies include the establishment of comprehensive pilot zones for cross-border e-commerce in 15 cities, which will implement tax exemptions and support for overseas warehouse construction [1] - The implementation of electronic data verification for export tax refund certificates starting January 1, 2026, aims to optimize the business environment for cross-border trade [2] Group 2: Market Dynamics and Strategic Developments - The Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) has provided tariff reductions that enhance the ability of Zhejiang enterprises to integrate into regional supply chains and expand overseas markets, with 295,000 certificates of origin issued since RCEP's implementation, corresponding to 80.69 billion yuan in export value [2] - The cross-border e-commerce sector is entering a mature phase characterized by a dual focus on efficiency and brand development, with technology and brand expansion expected to drive future growth [2] Group 3: Company Strategies and Performance - Companies are increasingly focusing on brand transformation to address homogenization in the cross-border e-commerce market, with firms like Hangzhou Juxing Technology forecasting a net profit of 2.419 to 2.764 billion yuan for 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 5% to 20% [3] - Zhejiang China Commodity City Group has signed a strategic investment agreement with the African B2B platform Egatee to enhance digital trade channels between China and Africa, leveraging its supply chain advantages [3] - Localized strategies are becoming essential for companies to reduce costs and improve efficiency, with firms like Lekai Ergonomics launching overseas warehouse initiatives to enhance logistics and operational efficiency [4] Group 4: Future Trends and Market Opportunities - The cross-border e-commerce industry is transitioning from scale to refinement, with growth opportunities expected in Southeast Asia and high-value product categories [4] - Companies with strong brand identities and global resource allocation capabilities are likely to expand their market share and contribute to the continued growth of China's foreign trade [4]

Investment Rating - The report recommends a positive investment outlook for the machinery equipment industry, particularly focusing on companies with high export potential and strong growth prospects in overseas markets [3][10]. Core Insights - The report identifies three major opportunities for machinery equipment exports: the Belt and Road Initiative driving demand in resource-rich countries, strong demand recovery in Europe and the US, and the shift from capacity export to technology export in high-end manufacturing [3][4][5]. - Key companies recommended for investment include SANY Heavy Industry, Zoomlion, LiuGong, and Hengli Hydraulic in the engineering machinery sector, and Jerry Holdings and Neway in the oil service sector [3][4][5][67]. Summary by Sections Belt and Road Initiative - Investment in oil, gas, and mineral resources in resource-rich countries is accelerating, driving demand for domestic equipment and expanding global market share [3]. - The engineering machinery sector is expected to benefit from rising prices of non-ferrous metals and increased capital expenditure by mining companies, leading to higher demand for high-margin excavators [3][10]. European and American Demand - The report highlights a recovery in overseas production capacity and macroeconomic recovery, focusing on high-quality targets with significant exposure to European and American markets [4]. - Key recommendations include leading Chinese hand tool exporter Juxing Technology and companies in the industrial forklift sector such as Hangcha Group and Anhui Heli [4]. High-End Manufacturing Export - The shift from capacity export to technology export is emphasized, with Chinese equipment manufacturers leveraging their advantages to enhance export ceilings [5]. - Companies involved in the production of optical module equipment, lithium battery equipment, and photovoltaic equipment are highlighted as key players, with specific recommendations for firms like Meiwai and Aotewi [5]. Engineering Machinery Export - The report anticipates a new upward cycle for overseas engineering machinery demand starting in 2025, driven by recovery in global demand and increased capital expenditure in mining and infrastructure [10][11]. - Key companies with established overseas operations and competitive advantages in mining and large infrastructure projects are expected to benefit significantly [10][11]. Oil Service Market - The Middle East is identified as a core market for oil service companies, with high certainty for growth due to stable capital expenditure and strong demand [67][69]. - Recommended companies include Jerry Holdings, which has a comprehensive international certification system and strong project execution capabilities, and Neway, which has a significant presence in the aftermarket service sector [67][69].