Group 1 - Oil stocks generally rose, with CNOOC (02883) up 4.32%, PetroChina (00857) up 3.33%, CNOOC (00883) up 2.98%, and Sinopec (00386) up 3.01%. International oil prices saw a slight increase, with WTI crude oil futures for February closing at $60.62 per barrel, up 0.43%, and Brent crude oil futures for March at $65.24 per barrel, up 0.49% [1] - CATL (03750) fell over 4%, down 4.4% as of the report. A report from Citi raised concerns about CATL's growth prospects due to slowing EV sales in China, rising lithium prices, and reduced export VAT rebates [1] - Kintor Pharmaceutical (02171) rose nearly 4% after announcing a clinical collaboration with Dispatch Bio to initiate a Phase I clinical trial in China by 2026 for a treatment method targeting solid tumors [1] Group 2 - Guoxia Technology (02655) surged over 7% following a strategic cooperation agreement with Shuneng Electric to enhance collaboration in the energy storage sector [2] - Kingsoft Biotech (01548) dropped over 6% after its affiliate Legend Biotech's stock fell more than 11%. Kingsoft reported that Legend's CARVYKTI had a net sales of approximately $555 million for Q4 [2] - Hong Kong real estate stocks saw a general rise, with Hysan Development (00014) up 5.17%, Sun Hung Kai Properties (00016) up 3.36%, and Wharf Real Estate (01997) up 4.02%. A report from Citi indicated a recovery in Hong Kong property prices, predicting a continued upward trend, albeit at a moderate pace due to tempered interest rate cut expectations [2] Group 3 - Baidu Group (09888) rose nearly 5%, with a cumulative increase of over 40% in the past two months. The company launched the official version of its Wenxin large model 5.0, featuring 2.4 trillion parameters [3] - Pacific Basin Shipping (02343) increased over 9%, reaching a new high of HKD 2.96, benefiting from a rise in the Baltic Dry Index, which increased by 74 points or 4.3% to 1803 points [3] - GDS Holdings (09698) rose nearly 3% after announcing the sale of shares in DayOne for $385 million, recovering approximately 95% of its investment principal with a return rate close to 6.5 times [4] Group 4 - The US stock market saw an expansion in gains, with the Nasdaq up 1%. Notable tech stocks like Intel (INTC.US) rose 11.72%, reaching a market cap of over $250 billion, the highest in four years [5] - The storage sector continued to strengthen, with Micron Technology (MU.US) up 6.61% and Western Digital (WDC.US) up 8.49%. Counterpoint Research indicated that the storage market has entered a "super bull market" phase, surpassing previous highs due to increased demand from AI and server capacity [5] - The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index surged 2%, with popular Chinese stocks like Bilibili (BILI.US) up 5.65% and Baidu (BIDU.US) up 8.17% [6]

Group 1 - Hong Kong real estate stocks are experiencing a broad increase, with notable gains in companies such as Hysan Development (up 4.49% to HKD 21.42), Sun Hung Kai Properties (up 3.27% to HKD 113.8), and Wharf Real Estate Investment (up 3.23% to HKD 26.2) [1] - According to a report by CLSA, Hong Kong property prices are showing signs of recovery, with strong sales of new developments and optimistic market sentiment, leading to a year-to-date increase in developer stock prices [1] - CLSA predicts a continued upward trend in property prices, estimating a 5% increase by 2026, although the pace of price growth is expected to moderate due to cooling interest rate expectations and resilient mortgage rates [1] Group 2 - Citigroup has revised its 2026 forecast for Hong Kong residential property prices from a 3% increase to an 8% increase, anticipating further acceleration in 2027 as the market enters a prolonged upward cycle [2] - The bank expects Hong Kong property developers to benefit in the first half of 2026 from improved profit margins, earnings, and net asset value (NAV) growth, with current operating profit margins ranging from 5% to 9% [2] - New transaction volumes for new developments are projected to reach a six-year high, with each 1% increase in property prices estimated to boost NAV by 0.5% and earnings by 1.5% [2]

Group 1 - Hong Kong real estate stocks are experiencing a broad increase, with notable gains from companies such as Hysan Development (+4.49%), Sun Hung Kai Properties (+3.27%), and Wharf Real Estate Investment (+3.23%) [1] - According to a report by Credit Lyonnais, Hong Kong property prices are showing signs of recovery, with strong sales of new developments and optimistic market sentiment, leading to a year-to-date increase in developer stock prices [1] - Credit Lyonnais predicts a continued upward trend in property prices, but expects the rate of increase to be moderate due to cooling interest rate expectations and resilient mortgage rates, maintaining a forecast of 5% growth in Hong Kong property prices by 2026 [1] Group 2 - Citigroup has revised its 2026 Hong Kong residential property price forecast from a 3% increase to an 8% increase, anticipating further acceleration in 2027, marking the beginning of a prolonged upward cycle [2] - The bank expects Hong Kong property developers to benefit in the first half of 2026 due to rising profit margins, earnings, and NAV, with new transaction volumes reaching a six-year high [2] - It is estimated that for every 1% increase in property prices, NAV could rise by 0.5% and earnings by 1.5%, with current NAV discounts at 52%, compared to approximately 40% during past property price upcycles [2]

证 券 研 究 报 告 房地产行业周报（2026 年第 3 周） 首开集团发行 7.5 亿私募债，1 月至今 11 城 推荐（维持） 二手房成交同比增长 19% 行业研究 房地产 2026 年 01 月 21 日 华创证券研究所 证券分析师：单戈 邮箱：shange@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360522110001 证券分析师：许常捷 邮箱：xuchangjie@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360525030002 证券分析师：杨航 邮箱：yanghang@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360525090001 行业基本数据 | | | 占比% | | --- | --- | --- | | 股票家数(只) | 107 | 0.01 | | 总市值(亿元) | 12,199.78 | 0.98 | | 流通市值(亿元) | 11,699.32 | 1.17 | 相对指数表现 | % | 1M | 6M | 12M | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 绝对表现 | 3.7% | 7.2% | 8.4% | | 相对表现 | 0.1% | -9.4% | -15.8% ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a recommendation for the real estate sector, indicating a cautious outlook for investment opportunities [2] Core Insights - The real estate market is experiencing a decline, with the sector index dropping by 3.5%, ranking 30th among 31 industry sectors [8] - New home sales have decreased by 33% year-on-year, while second-hand home sales have decreased by 10% year-on-year [22][26] - The report highlights three main issues in the real estate market: declining new home demand, unresolved inventory issues, and the negative impact of land finance on the economy [33] Summary by Sections Industry Basic Data - The total number of listed companies in the real estate sector is 107, with a total market capitalization of approximately 1,219.98 billion [2] Sales Performance - In the third week, the average daily transaction area for new homes in 20 cities was 21.5 million square meters, a decrease of 1% week-on-week and a 33% decrease year-on-year [22] - The total transaction area for new homes in the same period was 151 million square meters, with a cumulative year-to-date decrease of 4% [22] - For second-hand homes, the average daily transaction area in 11 cities was 29.9 million square meters, also down by 1% week-on-week and 10% year-on-year [26] Financing Trends - Most companies issuing bonds this week were local state-owned enterprises, with notable issuances including a private bond by Shoukai Group at a rate of 3.2% [30][32] Investment Strategy - The report suggests focusing on three areas to find alpha in the real estate sector: precision in land acquisition for developers, stable assets like leading shopping centers, and leading real estate agencies that enhance transaction efficiency [33]

Group 1 - The company, Hysan Development (00014.HK), announced that it will hold a board meeting on February 26, 2026, to approve the annual results for the year ending December 31, 2025, and to consider the distribution of the second interim dividend for 2025 [1]

香港交易及結算所有限公司及香港聯合交易所有限公司對本公告的內容概不負責，對其準確性或完整性亦 不發表任何聲明，並明確表示，概不對因本公告全部或任何部份內容而產生或因倚賴該等內容而引致的任 何損失承擔任何責任。 Hysan Development Company Limited 希 慎 興 業 有 限 公 司 （於香港註冊成立之有限公司） （股份代號：00014） 董事會召開日期 希慎興業有限公司（「本公司」）謹此宣布本公司將於 2026 年 2 月 26 日（星期四）舉行 本公司董事會（「董事會」）會議，藉以（其中包括）批准本公司及其附屬公司截至 2025 年 12 月 31 日止年度的全年業績及其發布，以及考慮派發 2025 年第二次中期股息。 本公告登載於本公司網站（ www.hysan.com.hk ）及香港聯合交易所有限公司網站（ www.hkexnews.hk ）。 * 非執行董事 ** 獨立非執行董事 利蘊蓮 香港，2026 年 1 月 21 日 於本公告日期，董事會包括：利蘊蓮（主席）、呂幹威（執行董事及首席營運總監）、鍾郝儀**、 卓百德**、王靜瑛**、 Young Elaine Carol ...

Core Viewpoint - Hong Kong property prices are experiencing a recovery, with optimistic market sentiment driving developers' stock prices up since the beginning of the year. However, the expected increase in property prices will be moderate due to cooling interest rate cut expectations and resilient mortgage rates [1] Group 1: Market Trends - New property sales have shown strong demand, with New World Development's Sierra Sea Phase 2A receiving over 49,000 applications, resulting in an oversubscription of more than 214 times [1] - The average price per square foot for this batch of units is approximately HKD 10,968, which is 5.5% and 3.1% higher than the prices of Phase 1A and 1B sold in April and May of last year, respectively. However, this increase is lower than the market's overall 6.8% rise during the same period [1] Group 2: Company Insights - The report mentions a potential acquisition of Rosewood Hotel Group by Marriott International, noting that Rosewood is a sister company of New World Development. Even if the transaction occurs, it is believed that Chow Tai Fook Enterprises will not use the proceeds to repay New World's debts [1] - The firm maintains a 5% growth forecast for Hong Kong property prices by 2026, with a preference for stocks such as Hysan Development and Link REIT, both rated as "outperform" [1]

Core Viewpoint - Hong Kong property prices are experiencing a recovery, with optimistic market sentiment driving developers' stock prices up since the beginning of the year. However, the expected increase in property prices will be moderate due to cooling interest rate cut expectations and resilient mortgage rates [1] Group 1: Market Trends - New property sales, such as the Sierra Sea Phase 2A by Sun Hung Kai Properties, received over 49,000 applications, with an oversubscription rate exceeding 214 times. The average price per square foot for this batch is approximately HKD 10,968, which is 5.5% and 3.1% higher than the previous phases sold in April and May last year, respectively [1] - The increase in property prices is lower than the market's overall increase of 6.8% during the same period and significantly below the 29% increase seen in the same company's "Tianxi Tian" Phase 2 [1] Group 2: Company Insights - There are rumors that Marriott International may acquire Rosewood Hotel Group, which is under Chow Tai Fook Enterprises. However, it is noted that even if the transaction occurs, Chow Tai Fook is unlikely to use the proceeds to repay debts owed to New World Development [1] - The company maintains a forecast of a 5% increase in Hong Kong property prices by 2026, with preferred stocks being Hysan Development (00014) and Link REIT (00823), both rated as "outperform" [1]

Market Overview - The market experienced a high opening but quickly fell, with the China Securities Regulatory Commission emphasizing the need for stable and regulated market development, particularly targeting excessive speculation and market manipulation [1] - The Canada-China meeting resulted in significant trade agreements, including the reduction of tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles entering Canada from 100% to 6.1%, marking a notable shift in trade relations [1] Semiconductor Industry - The U.S. and Taiwan reached a trade agreement to reduce tariffs on semiconductor exports, with TSMC planning to expand its manufacturing capabilities in the U.S. This includes accelerating the timeline for its second factory in Arizona to late 2027 and applying for permits for a fourth factory [3] - TrendForce reported that DRAM contract prices are expected to increase by 55%-60% in Q1 2026 due to supply constraints driven by AI server demand, making the semiconductor supply chain a target for capital investment [3] - Companies like Zhaoyi Innovation and Cambridge Technology saw significant stock price increases, benefiting from the semiconductor industry's growth [3][4] Emerging Technologies - The application of silicon carbide in emerging fields such as AR glasses and advanced packaging is expanding, leading to long-term growth opportunities for companies like Tianyue Advanced [4] - The CES 2026 showcased a strong presence of Chinese brands in smart glasses, with several companies launching innovative products, indicating a growing market for AR technology [4] Energy Sector - The State Grid of China announced a fixed asset investment of 4 trillion yuan during the 14th Five-Year Plan, a 40% increase from the previous plan, aimed at meeting the electricity demand of data centers [5] - Companies like Weisheng Holdings are experiencing rapid growth in their data center business, supported by strategic partnerships and expected revenue increases [5] Consumer Goods - Li Ning is expected to benefit from increased brand exposure during the Milan Winter Olympics and strong growth in running and badminton categories, with stock prices rising significantly [6] - The price of rare earth minerals is anticipated to increase due to supply constraints and export controls, positively impacting companies like Jinchuan Group [6] Natural Gas Market - European natural gas prices are set to experience their largest weekly increase in over two years, driven by cold weather and geopolitical risks, with prices rising over 20% [7] - Companies involved in the energy sector, such as Kunlun Energy and New Hope Energy, are likely to benefit from this price surge [8] Robotics and AI - Sanhua Intelligent Controls is preparing for mass production of humanoid robots, with significant demand for liquid cooling systems driven by AI and data centers [9] - The company is expected to see substantial revenue growth, with a projected net profit increase of 25%-50% for the upcoming fiscal year [9][10]