Core Points - The Shanghai Stock Exchange announced the listing of Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry Group Co., Ltd.'s 2025 public offering of technology innovation perpetual corporate bonds (Phase II) starting from December 10, 2025 [1][3] - The bonds will be traded under the name "Shanmei KY19" with the security code "244372" and will utilize various trading methods including matched transactions, click transactions, inquiry transactions, competitive bidding, and negotiated transactions [3] Company Information - The bonds are aimed at professional investors and are part of the company's strategy to raise funds for technological innovation [1] - According to the rules of China Securities Depository and Clearing Corporation, these bonds can participate in pledged repurchase transactions [3]

Core Viewpoint - Coal will continue to serve as the "ballast" of China's energy system in the long term, supported by ongoing energy security strategies and gradual energy structure transformation [1] Group 1: Coal Price Trends - In 2025, coal prices are expected to show a trend of decline followed by an increase, with high port inventories in the first four months putting downward pressure on prices, while demand recovery in May to August will support prices [2] - The price of coking coal has been rising since July, which has led to multiple price increases in coke [2] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Coal supply is expected to improve in 2025 due to a continuous decline in raw coal supply since July, with annual production projected at 4.8 billion tons [3] - The demand for thermal coal is anticipated to recover in the second quarter, with a narrowing decline expected for the year, while non-electric demand remains robust [3] - The supply-demand balance for coking coal is tighter compared to thermal coal, with stable production and reduced imports due to tariffs on U.S. coking coal [3] Group 3: Future Price Outlook - The central price of thermal coal is expected to remain high in 2026, with limited growth potential due to constraints on capacity expansion and regulatory policies [4] - Demand for electricity coal is projected to see slight growth in 2026, while non-electric coal demand may slow down [4] - The coking coal market is expected to maintain a tight balance, with limited imports and stable production, benefiting leading companies through capacity replacement [4] Group 4: Investment Recommendations - Companies with high long-term contract ratios that ensure stable profits include China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry, and China Coal Energy [4] - Companies with cyclical elasticity in thermal coal include Yanzhou Coal Mining, Jinkong Coal Industry, Shanxi Coal International, and Huayang Co., Ltd. [4] - Integrated coal and electricity companies include Xinji Energy, Huaihe Energy, and Shaanxi Energy [4] - Companies with sustainable growth potential include Electric Power Investment Energy [4]

Group 1 - The announcement is regarding the major operational data of Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry Co., Ltd. for November 2025 [1] - The board of directors guarantees the truthfulness, accuracy, and completeness of the announcement content [1] - The operational data is based on internal statistics and may differ from the data disclosed in regular reports [2] Group 2 - The announcement serves to provide investors with timely insights into the company's production and operational status [2] - The company does not make predictions or commitments regarding future operational conditions [2] - Investors are advised to invest rationally and be aware of investment risks [2]

安全费用与资源税影响：安全费用计提标准上调，从 2004 年每吨 8 元 （煤与瓦斯突出矿井）到 2022 年 50 元，增加企业刚性成本。资源税 从按量计征改为按销售金额计征，山西已上调税率，未来不排除进一步 上调，增加企业税负压力。 动力煤市场盈利波动：2024 年动力煤市场价格波动，6 月中旬河南坑口 价格亏损 75 元/吨，11 月中旬盈利 88 元/吨。山西、内蒙古、陕西和安 徽盈利情况各异，反映市场动态变化。 焦煤市场经营压力：焦煤市场各地区生产成本差异显著，山西、安徽、 河南、河北成本各异。2015 年至 2024 年样本焦煤企业平均成本增长 显著，企业经营压力大。 来整体行业盈利水平和分红能力超预期释放。长期来看，能源结构转型是一个 漫长且复杂的过程，因此短期内煤炭作为保供压舱石的战略地位无法替代。 摘要 煤炭企业完全成本显著上升：2015 年至 2024 年，动力煤样本企业完 全成本从 216 元增至 306 元，焦煤样本企业从 546 元大幅增至 1,051 元，年化增幅 7.6%，主要受原材料、人工和折旧摊销成本驱动，使得 煤价难以回落至 2015 年水平。 下游需求与库存：12 月下游 ...

2025 年 12 月 09 日 开源晨会 1209 ——晨会纪要 沪深300 及创业板指数近1年走势 数据来源：聚源 -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 2024-12 2025-04 2025-08 沪深300 创业板指 昨日涨跌幅前五行业 | 行业名称 | 涨跌幅(%) | | --- | --- | | 通信 | 4.794 | | 综合 | 3.031 | | 电子 | 2.600 | | 非银金融 | 1.904 | | 计算机 | 1.492 | 数据来源：聚源 昨日涨跌幅后五行业 | 行业名称 | 涨跌幅(%) | | --- | --- | | 煤炭 | -1.433 | | 石油石化 | -0.839 | | 食品饮料 | -0.775 | | 公用事业 | -0.421 | | 钢铁 | -0.271 | 数据来源：聚源 吴梦迪（分析师） wumengdi@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790521070001 观点精粹 总量视角 【宏观经济】推动基础设施 REITs 扩围——宏观周报-20251207 行业公司 【中小盘】商业航天催化不断，可复用火箭迎来大发展——中小盘 ...

Investment Rating - The report recommends an "Outperform" rating for key companies in the coal and energy sectors, including China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry, Yanzhou Coal Mining, and others [10]. Core Insights - The report identifies the growing electricity shortage in the U.S. driven by AI demand, suggesting a systematic solution on the power supply side, particularly focusing on natural gas, wind, solar, and storage solutions [1][3]. - It emphasizes the need for a multi-energy system to address the challenges posed by aging infrastructure and increasing demand, particularly from AI data centers [8][50]. Summary by Sections Investment Overview - The report highlights the critical role of affordable and reliable electricity in the U.S. energy landscape, particularly in the context of national energy dominance and the ongoing electricity shortage [7]. The Impossible Triangle of the U.S. Power System under AI Impact - The report discusses the conflicting goals of reliability, decarbonization, and cost-speed efficiency in the U.S. power system, exacerbated by the rapid growth of AI-related electricity demand [13][19]. - It notes that the Trump administration's policies are likely to prioritize energy security and cost over decarbonization in the short to medium term [45]. U.S. Power Supply Needs a Comprehensive Multi-Energy System Solution - The current U.S. energy structure is dominated by natural gas and clean energy, with coal's share dropping below 15% [50]. - The report outlines a projected power supply balance for 2030, indicating that wind and solar storage will contribute approximately 40% of new electricity, with natural gas remaining a core component [9][50]. Key Companies and Investment Recommendations - The report recommends investing in companies with growth potential in the coal and energy sectors, such as China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal, and Yanzhou Coal, which are expected to benefit from the evolving energy landscape [10].

行 业 及 产 业 煤炭/ 煤炭开采 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 相关研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 证券分析师 严天鹏 A0230524090004 yantp@swsresearch.com 闫海 A0230519010004 yanhai@swsresearch.com 施佳瑜 A0230521040004 shijy@swsresearch.com 研究支持 施佳瑜 A0230521040004 shijy@swsresearch.com 联系人 施佳瑜 A0230521040004 shijy@swsresearch.com 2025 年 12 月 08 日 冷空气来袭、库存有望去化，旺季 煤价仍有支撑 看好 ——煤炭行业周报（2025.11.29-2025.12.5） 本期投资提示： ⚫ 动力煤方面，截至12月5日，据中国煤炭市场网，秦皇岛港口Q4500、Q5000、 Q5500 动力煤现货价收报 589、683、785 元/吨，均环比下跌 30、30、31 元/吨。供给端，据 中国煤炭市场网，环渤海四港区本周日均调入量 194.76 万吨，环比上周减少 10.36 万 吨，但同比上升 7. ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Outperform the Market - A" for the coal industry [6]. Core Viewpoints - The coal industry is expected to remain a cornerstone of energy supply in China, with supply-demand dynamics improving and supporting higher coal prices [4]. - In 2025, coal prices are projected to show a trend of decline followed by recovery, driven by seasonal demand and supply constraints [1][12]. - The supply of raw coal has been contracting since July 2025, leading to a tighter supply-demand balance, with an annual production target of approximately 4.8 billion tons [2]. Summary by Sections 1. 2025 Price Review - Thermal coal prices rebounded to new highs in 2025 due to supply constraints and recovering demand [1][16]. - Coking coal prices saw strong increases in the second half of 2025, driven by supply tightening and increased demand from steel production [14]. 2. 2025 Supply and Demand Review - Domestic raw coal supply showed a "high before low" trend, with a total production of 3.57 billion tons from January to September 2025, a year-on-year increase of 2.7% [18]. - The total coal import volume for 2025 is expected to be below 500 million tons, significantly lower than in 2024, with thermal coal imports down by 12.5% [26][32]. - Electricity demand from thermal power is expected to see slight growth in 2026, while non-electric demand from coal chemical industries remains robust [3][48]. 3. 2026 Supply and Demand Outlook - The coal price center is expected to maintain a high level in 2026, with potential for upward movement due to ongoing supply constraints and gradual energy structure transformation [3][4]. - The supply of thermal coal is projected to improve, with a slight increase in demand expected, particularly from the chemical sector [3][70]. 4. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies with high long-term contract ratios for stable profits, such as China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal, and China Coal Energy [4]. - It also highlights cyclical stocks like Yancoal Energy and Jinzhong Coal, as well as integrated coal-electricity companies like Xinji Energy and Huaihe Energy [4].

Group 1: Market Overview - On August 8, the port coke spot market showed weak performance, with domestic trading atmosphere being subdued due to the influence of futures trends and expectations of coke prices from production areas [1] - The external trade demand remained average, leading to stable port prices for foreign trade coke [1] - The future trends of coke prices will depend on downstream steel mill profit levels, changes in coking coal costs, and futures market sentiment [1] Group 2: Regional Price Stability - In the Linfen market, coke prices remained stable, with major steel mills in Hebei reducing coke prices by 50-55 yuan/ton starting from August 1 [2] - The overall production pace of coking enterprises in Linfen was normal, with low inventory levels and general profitability [2] - Downstream steel demand was cautious, primarily focusing on essential purchases, with expectations for short-term price stability [2] Group 3: Price Data - Current prices for various types of metallurgical coke in different regions are as follows: - Linfen first-class dry quenching metallurgical coke at 1840 yuan/ton [2] - Taiyuan first-class dry quenching metallurgical coke at 1840 yuan/ton [2] - Jinzhong first-class dry quenching metallurgical coke at 1860 yuan/ton [3] - Other regional prices include: - Tangshan first-class coke at 1900 yuan/ton [4] - Lüliang first-class coke at 1640 yuan/ton [4] Group 4: Coking Coal Market - On August 8, the coking coal market in Jinzhong showed a stable to weak trend, with most coal mines maintaining normal production levels [6] - The overall market transaction atmosphere was flat, with cautious purchasing behavior from steel enterprises focusing on inventory consumption [6] - In the Lüliang market, coking coal prices showed slight stabilization, with some coal types indicating short-term stabilization characteristics [7] Group 5: Import and Export Trends - In November, India imported 1597.9 million tons of coal, a year-on-year increase of 5.17% [17] - China's coal imports in November reached 4405.3 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 231.6 million tons, but a year-on-year decrease of 12.0% [17] - Shaanxi Coal Industry reported a coal production of 1479 million tons in November, a year-on-year increase of 5.18% [17]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive investment outlook for the coal sector, recommending a focus on key players such as China Shenhua Energy, Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry, and China Coal Energy, while also keeping an eye on Yanzhou Coal Mining and Jinneng Holding [3]. Core Insights - The coal sector has reached a cyclical bottom in Q2 2025, with supply-demand dynamics showing signs of reversal and downward risks being fully released [1]. - Domestic coal prices have transitioned from an upward trend to a rational decline, with a focus on whether winter demand will exceed expectations [3]. - The introduction of a new long-term coal contract mechanism for 2026 is expected to support industry profitability at the bottom of the cycle [3]. - The report highlights the ongoing importance of coal in the global energy landscape, particularly in light of electricity supply issues in the U.S. [3]. Summary by Sections Coal Price Trends - As of December 5, 2025, the price of Q5500 coal at Huanghua Port is 801 RMB/ton, down 27 RMB/ton (-3.3%) from the previous week [6][12]. - The report notes a significant improvement in demand during the off-season, with Q3 profits expected to rebound [3]. Supply and Demand Analysis - Domestic coal supply remains stable, with imports continuing to decline; total supply is expected to maintain a steady decline throughout the year [3]. - The report indicates that if temperatures drop significantly in December and January, residential electricity demand may rise, potentially halting the decline in coal prices [3]. Long-term Contract Mechanism - The 2026 long-term coal contract mechanism has been clarified, allowing for more market-driven pricing adjustments, which is expected to enhance the industry's valuation [3]. Inventory and Market Dynamics - As of December 5, 2025, Qinhuangdao's coal inventory is 6.82 million tons, an increase of 820,000 tons (13.7%) from the previous week [24]. - The report notes that the average price of primary metallurgical coke at major domestic ports has decreased by 43 RMB/ton (-2.41%) [70]. Focus on Key Companies - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the performance of major coal companies, particularly in light of changing market conditions and pricing mechanisms [3].