Group 1 - The global fertilizer market is entering a high-price and tight balance phase, with ongoing supply disruptions in overseas nitrogen and phosphate fertilizers leading to an upward shift in price levels. Potash is expected to see high cost-performance demand potentially exceeding expectations [1][2] - As of January 22, 09:44, the chemical ETF (159870.SZ) rose by 0.55%, and the related index for segmented chemicals (000813.CSI) increased by 0.74%. Key constituent stocks such as Wanhua Chemical rose by 1.07%, Jinhai Technology by 3.44%, Cangge Mining by 1.68%, Hebang Bio by 6.17%, and Hengli Petrochemical by 1.60% [1] - In the nitrogen fertilizer sector, due to risks in Iran and the Middle East, the FOB price for granular urea in the Middle East is currently between $420 and $430 per ton, while the CFR price for urea in Brazil and Southeast Asia is between $430 and $440 per ton. China will not lift urea exports during the spring plowing season, indicating that the global urea market has entered a new high-price platform [1] Group 2 - In the phosphate fertilizer sector, China's sulfuric acid exports halved from January to April, raising global phosphate production costs. From January to August, phosphate exports were suspended, reducing global phosphate supply. The CFR prices for MAP and DAP in Brazil have increased by approximately $40 per ton since the beginning of the year, currently ranging between $680 and $700 per ton, supported by rising sulfur/sulfuric acid costs [2] - For potash, the CFR prices in Brazil and Southeast Asia are currently between $360 and $380 per ton, showcasing a prominent cost-performance advantage compared to nitrogen and phosphate fertilizers. Institutions believe that the demand for potassium chloride may further replace nitrogen and phosphate fertilizers by 2%-3% [2] - Since 2024, there has been strong demand for potash from China, India, and Brazil, with current inventories at low levels, indicating significant potential for further increases in global potash prices [2]

LPG：取暖需求支撑，PG 走势坚挺 丙烯：现货维持紧平衡 陈鑫超 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020238 chenxinchao@gtht.com 赵书岑（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03147780 zhaoshucen@gtht.com 2026 年 1 月 22 日 【基本面跟踪】 LPG、丙烯基本面数据 | | | 2602 | 昨日收盘价 4,161 | 日涨幅 0.48% | 夜盘收盘价 夜盘涨幅 4,182 | 0.50% | | 2602 | 4,683 | 昨日成交 较前日变动 昨日持仓 较前日变动 -7,567 | 6,131 | -2,837 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | PG | 2603 | 4,069 | 0.37% | 4,104 | 0.86% | PG | 2603 | 43,015 | -11,592 | 88,100 | -2,868 | | 期货市场 | | 2604 | 4,346 | 0.58% | 4,377 | 0.71% ...

内容概要：丁二烯作为合成橡胶、ABS树脂等材料的核心原料，下游需求与汽车、家电、建材等支柱产 业高度绑定，近年来，随着新能源汽车轻量化进程加快、家电产品升级迭代，以及基建投资对橡胶制品 的刚性需求，丁二烯基础消费需求长期保持稳定，同时，高端合成橡胶、特种树脂等新兴应用领域的技 术突破，进一步打开了丁二烯的增量需求空间，据统计，2024年我国丁二烯表观消费量达486.2万吨， 同比增长2.8%，同年产量完成455.6万吨，同比增长4.2%，需求缺口主要来源于进口。 相关上市企业：中国石油（601857）、万华化学（600309）、中国石化（600028） 相关企业：浙江石油化工有限公司、中海壳牌石油化工有限公司、山东裕龙石化有限公司、埃克森美孚 （中国）投资有限公司、盛虹石化集团有限公司、福建联合石油化工有限公司、上海赛科石油化工有限 责任公司 关键词：丁二烯生产工艺、丁二烯行业发展历程、丁二烯产业链图谱、丁二烯供需现状、丁二烯进出口 贸易、丁二烯竞争格局、丁二烯发展趋势 一、概述 丁二烯，化学名称为1,3-丁二烯，化学式为C₄H₆，是一种带有轻微芳香味的无色气体，不溶于水，溶于 丙酮、苯、乙酸、酯等多数有机溶 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company is utilizing part of its idle funds to purchase structured deposits to enhance capital efficiency and increase cash asset returns [1][4]. Group 1: Approval Process - The company obtained authorization from its shareholders during the 2018 annual general meeting to conduct entrusted financial management, with a maximum limit of RMB 60 billion for entrusted financial management, and a cumulative limit of RMB 400 billion over 12 months [2]. Group 2: Relationship with Counterparty - The counterparty for the structured deposit products is a commercial bank, and there are no ownership, asset, or personnel relationships between the company and the bank [3]. Group 3: Investment Details - The company purchased structured deposits amounting to RMB 2.5 billion on January 19, 2026, using idle self-owned funds [5]. Group 4: Risk Management - The structured deposits are classified as principal-protected floating return products, with a low-risk assessment indicating that principal safety is assured, although returns may fluctuate due to market conditions. The finance department will monitor the product's performance and take necessary actions to mitigate risks [3]. Group 5: Impact on the Company - The investment in structured deposits is expected to generate returns, reduce financial costs, and improve capital utilization without affecting the company's main business operations. The total balance of structured deposits held by the company is RMB 2.5 billion, which is within the approved limit of RMB 60 billion [4][6].

Core Viewpoint - The company is utilizing idle funds to purchase structured deposits, aiming to enhance capital efficiency and increase cash asset returns [2][7]. Group 1: Approval Process - The company obtained authorization from the 2018 annual general meeting to conduct entrusted financial management, with a maximum limit of RMB 60 billion for entrusted financial management, and a cumulative limit of RMB 400 billion within 12 months [3]. Group 2: Relationship with Counterparty - The counterparty for the structured deposit products is a commercial bank, with no ownership, asset, or personnel relationships between the company and the bank [4]. Group 3: Contract Details - On January 19, 2026, the company purchased structured deposits amounting to RMB 2.5 billion [5]. Group 4: Investment Risk Analysis - The structured deposits are principal-protected with floating returns, assessed to have low risk, ensuring principal safety, although returns may fluctuate with market conditions [6]. Group 5: Impact on the Company - The investment in structured deposits is expected to generate returns, reduce financial costs, and improve capital utilization without affecting the company's main business operations [7][9].

Core Insights - The report emphasizes a "slow bull" market expectation, suggesting a shift from a previous "crazy bull" sentiment to a more stable outlook, maintaining confidence in mid-cap blue chips and cyclical sectors [2][3] - The cyclical mid-cap blue chips, particularly in the chemical and non-ferrous sectors, are highlighted as key investment opportunities, with a focus on manufacturing and technology growth [3] - The chemical industry is undergoing a transformation, moving from a focus on market share to profitability, influenced by internal policy adjustments and external anti-dumping measures [3] Market Strategy - The report suggests maintaining a focus on mid-cap blue chips, particularly in cyclical and manufacturing sectors, with an emphasis on non-ferrous metals and chemicals, as well as smart vehicles and robotics [3] - Recommended ETFs include the Hang Seng ETF, Hang Seng Technology ETF, and various sector-specific ETFs such as the Chemical ETF and Non-ferrous ETF [3] Industry Analysis - The chemical industry is reaching the limits of market share expansion due to policy constraints and increased scrutiny on low-quality growth, signaling a need for companies to adjust their strategies [3] - Key areas of focus within the chemical sector include MDI, petrochemicals, phosphate chemicals, PVC, and polyester bottle chips, with a preference for companies demonstrating strong leadership advantages [3] - The zinc market is expected to see price increases due to favorable supply-demand dynamics, driven by infrastructure needs in developing regions and a tightening supply of zinc ore [4][3]

| 11/11/2 | 国技期货 | | | 化工日报 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 操作评级 | | 2026年01月21日 | | 尿素 | ななな | 甲醇 | 女女女 | 庞春艳 首席分析师 | | 纯菜 | 女女女 | 苯乙烯 | ★☆★ | F3011557 Z0011355 | | 聚丙烯 | ★☆☆ | 塑料 | ★☆★ | | | PVC | ななな | 烧碱 | ★☆☆ | 牛卉 高级分析师 | | PX | 女女女 | PTA | ☆☆☆ | F3003295 Z0011425 | | 乙二醇 | 女女女 | 短纤 | ☆☆☆ | 周小燕 高级分析师 | | 玻璃 | 女女女 | 纯碱 | ★☆☆ | F03089068 Z0016691 | | 瓶片 | 文文文 丙烯 | | ★☆☆ | | | | | | | 王雪忆 分析师 | | | | | | F03125010 Z0023574 | | | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 本报告版权属于 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The PVC market is expected to experience a sideways downward trend, with the 03 - 05 contracts expected to show a relatively strong sideways movement under the stimulus of the cancellation of export tax rebates [1] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - The calcium carbide price in the upstream northwest region is stable. The PVC operating rate decreased by 0.04 percentage points to 79.63% week - on - week, remaining basically stable and at a neutral level in recent years. The downstream operating rate decreased by 0.11 percentage points week - on - week, with poor orders for downstream products and low willingness to stock up actively. Due to the cancellation of export tax rebates, there was a rush to export, and last week's PVC export orders increased significantly to a recent high. However, as export prices rose, the resistance to transactions increased. The social inventory continued to increase and remained high, with significant inventory pressure. The real estate market is still in the adjustment stage, and the improvement of the real estate market still takes time. The macro - sentiment has subsided, the comprehensive gross profit of chlor - alkali is under pressure, and the operating expectations of some production enterprises have decreased, but the current production decline is limited [1] Futures and Spot Market - The PVC2605 contract increased in positions and moved downward in a sideways manner, with a minimum price of 4,708 yuan/ton, a maximum price of 4,807 yuan/ton, and finally closed at 4,743 yuan/ton, below the 20 - day moving average, with a decline of 1.33%. The position volume increased by 34,620 lots to 1,071,654 lots [2] Basis - On January 21, the mainstream price of calcium carbide - based PVC in the East China region fell to 4,530 yuan/ton. The futures closing price of the V2605 contract was 4,743 yuan/ton. The current basis was - 213 yuan/ton, strengthening by 14 yuan/ton, and the basis was at a relatively low level [3] Fundamental Tracking - On the supply side, affected by plants such as Fujian Wanhua and Yibin Tianyuan, the PVC operating rate decreased by 0.04 percentage points to 79.63% week - on - week, remaining basically stable and at a neutral level in recent years. New production capacities of 500,000 tons/year of Wanhua Chemical, 400,000 tons/year of Tianjin Bohua, 200,000 tons/year of Qingdao Gulf, and 300,000 tons/year of Gansu Yaowang were put into production in the second half of 2025. The 300,000 - ton/year Jiaxing Jiahua plant was in trial production in December 2025 [4] - On the demand side, the real estate market is still in the adjustment stage. The year - on - year decline in investment, new construction, and completion areas is still large, and the year - on - year growth rates of investment, sales, construction, and completion have further decreased. From January to December 2025, the national real estate development investment was 827.88 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 17.2%. The sales area of commercial housing was 881.01 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 8.7%; the sales area of residential housing decreased by 9.2%. The sales volume of commercial housing was 839.37 billion yuan, a decrease of 12.6%, and the sales volume of residential housing decreased by 13.0%. The new construction area of housing was 587.70 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 20.4%; the new construction area of residential housing was 429.84 million square meters, a decrease of 19.8%. The construction area of housing by real estate development enterprises was 6.5989 billion square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 10.0%. The completion area of housing was 603.48 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 18.1%; the completion area of residential housing was 428.30 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 20.2%. As of the week of January 18, the transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities increased by 6.20% week - on - week, at the lowest level in recent years [5] - In terms of inventory, as of the week of January 15, the PVC social inventory increased by 2.70% week - on - week to 1.1441 million tons, a 48.60% increase compared to the same period last year. The social inventory continued to increase and remained high [6]

证券代码：600309 证券简称：万华化学 公告编号：临2026-04号 万华化学集团股份有限公司 关于使用闲置资金购买结构性存款的公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述或者重大遗漏， 并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担个别及连带责任。 重要内容提示： 一、投资目的 在不影响公司日常资金周转的情况下，公司使用部分闲置资金购买结构性存款， 提高公司资金利用效率，增加现金资产收益。 二、公司购买结构性存款履行的审批程序 三、公司与结构性存款受托方的关联关系说明 公司购买结构性存款产品的交易对方为商业银行，公司与其之间不存在产权、 资产、人员等方面的关联关系。 四、结构性存款产品合同的主要内容 公司于2026年1月19日，在商业银行购买结构性存款25亿元，具体信息如下表： 投资种类：保本浮动收益型结构性存款 投资金额：25亿元 资金来源：公司闲置自有资金 | 序号 | 产品类型 | 币种 | 购买金额 | 起息日 | 到期日 | 预期年化收 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | (万元） | | | 益率 | ...

Group 1 - The chemical products sector increased by 0.44% on January 21, with 聚胶股份 leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4116.94, up 0.08%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 14255.12, up 0.7% [1] - Notable gainers in the chemical products sector included 聚肢股份, which rose by 10.91% to a closing price of 62.53, and 闻主股份, which increased by 10.01% to 9.01 [1] Group 2 - The chemical products sector experienced a net inflow of 427 million yuan from main funds, while retail investors saw a net outflow of 104 million yuan [2] - Major stocks with significant net inflows included 浙江龙盛 with 234 million yuan and 国土股份 with 149 million yuan [3] - Conversely, stocks like 合盛硅业 and 联盛化学 faced declines of 6.54% and 4.11%, respectively, indicating a mixed performance within the sector [2]