Investment Highlights - The report emphasizes a positive outlook for the aviation industry in 2026, driven by a gradual recovery in demand and an expected increase in ticket prices, with domestic market capacity growth remaining slow [6][9] - The investment strategy suggests focusing on major airlines with significant fleet sizes and strong cyclical attributes, such as China Southern Airlines, China Eastern Airlines, and Hainan Airlines, as well as smaller regional airlines like Huaxia Airlines and low-cost carriers like Spring Airlines [6][9] 2025 Aviation Review - Global aviation growth is projected to slow down, with IATA forecasting a 5.8% increase in RPK (Revenue Passenger Kilometers) for 2025, while the Asia-Pacific region is expected to lead with a 9% growth [7][21] - China's aviation industry showed profitability in the first three quarters of 2025, with major airlines like Air China, China Eastern, and China Southern expected to achieve full-year profitability [7][19] - The average passenger load factor in China reached 85.12%, an increase of 1.7 percentage points year-on-year, indicating strong demand recovery [7][39] 2026 Aviation Outlook - The supply-demand balance is expected to improve, with international travel demand benefiting from visa-free policies and corporate expansion abroad, leading to optimistic growth forecasts [6][9] - The report anticipates that 2026 will be a year where the positive cycle of volume and price in the aviation market becomes widely recognized, with a shift in growth engines from domestic to international markets [6][9] - The report highlights that the average ticket prices are expected to rise due to reduced competition and high load factors, with the industry moving away from aggressive price wars [7][49] Supply Side Analysis - The global backlog of aircraft orders has reached a record high of 17,000 units, but delivery rates have not returned to pre-pandemic levels, leading to a supply gap [7][55] - Major aircraft manufacturers like Boeing and Airbus are struggling to meet delivery targets, which may continue to constrain capacity growth in the coming years [7][55] - The report notes that the utilization rates of existing aircraft have reached peak levels, limiting the potential for further supply increases [7][49] Demand Side Analysis - The report indicates that international travel demand is expected to remain strong, particularly due to favorable visa policies and a growing preference for short-haul destinations among Chinese travelers [7][91] - Domestic business travel is projected to recover gradually, while leisure travel demand remains robust, with a notable increase in the number of young and elderly travelers [7][86] - The report highlights that the recovery in inbound tourism is also expected to continue, supported by visa-free entry policies for foreign visitors [7][100]

Investment Summary - The transportation industry has shown a significant underperformance compared to the broader market, ranking among the lowest in terms of growth within the Shenwan primary industry indices as of December 8, 2025 [15][16] - The implementation of anti-involution policies has positively impacted the fundamentals of certain segments within the transportation sector, particularly benefiting the aviation and express delivery sectors [26][30] 2026 Outlook - The focus for 2026 remains on sectors benefiting from anti-involution policies and high-certainty stocks, with a long-term impact expected from these policies on stock price movements [5][34] - Key sectors to watch include aviation, express delivery, and regional shipping, while high-dividend and low-debt companies are expected to attract more investor interest in weaker cyclical areas [5][34] Express Delivery Sector - The express delivery industry has seen a recovery in profitability driven by rising single-package prices, with major companies like YTO Express and Shentong Express showing significant improvements [6][35] - The trend of price competition has been curtailed, leading to a decrease in package volume growth as companies focus on maintaining service quality and profitability [6][38] - The competitive strategies among companies have diverged, with YTO and Shentong performing strongly, while Yunda has struggled with profitability and market share [42][53] Aviation Sector - The aviation sector has experienced a notable improvement in performance since Q2 2025, with major airlines reporting increased profitability compared to the previous year [63][64] - The focus for 2026 will be on the transition from high passenger load factors to higher ticket prices, supported by controlled supply and strong demand [69][87] - Major airlines are expected to maintain cautious procurement strategies, with a projected fleet growth of around 5% in 2026 [69][80] Highway Sector - The highway sector has faced significant adjustments in stock prices, leading to a more rational market approach towards high-dividend investments [8][4.1] - Following substantial adjustments, the attractiveness of highway stocks has improved, with a focus on companies with high dividend ratios and low debt levels [8][4.3]

Core Insights - The aviation and airport sector saw a rise of 1.14% on December 10, with HNA Holding leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3900.5, down 0.23%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13316.42, up 0.29% [1] Stock Performance - HNA Holding (600221) closed at 1.80, up 4.05% with a trading volume of 8.32 million shares [1] - Shanghai Airport (600009) closed at 32.39, up 1.73% with a trading volume of 147,300 shares [1] - Southern Airlines (600029) closed at 6.98, up 1.16% with a trading volume of 258,000 shares [1] - Shenzhen Airport (000089) closed at 6.98, up 1.01% with a trading volume of 88,900 shares [1] - China National Aviation (601111) closed at 8.24, up 0.73% with a trading volume of 306,800 shares [1] - Baiyun Airport (600004) closed at 9.71, up 0.62% with a trading volume of 108,200 shares [1] - Huaxia Airlines (002928) closed at 10.02, up 0.60% with a trading volume of 120,500 shares [1] - Juneyao Airlines (603885) closed at 13.48, up 0.60% with a trading volume of 123,400 shares [1] - China Eastern Airlines (600115) closed at 5.08, up 0.59% with a trading volume of 473,000 shares [1] - CITIC Offshore Helicopter (000099) closed at 20.18, up 0.30% with a trading volume of 56,600 shares [1] Capital Flow - The aviation and airport sector experienced a net outflow of 3.6965 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors saw a net inflow of 8.92532 million yuan [2] - The overall capital flow indicates a mixed sentiment among different investor types within the sector [2] Individual Stock Capital Flow - HNA Holding saw a net inflow of 14.2 million yuan from institutional investors, but a significant outflow of 85.3144 million yuan from retail investors [3] - China Eastern Airlines had a net inflow of 23.1458 million yuan from institutional investors, with retail investors also experiencing a net outflow [3] - China National Aviation had a net inflow of 9.8210 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors had a net inflow of 660.88 million yuan [3] - Baiyun Airport had a net inflow of 3.9543 million yuan from institutional investors, but retail investors faced a net outflow [3] - Huaxia Airlines had a net inflow of 3.0489 million yuan from institutional investors, with retail investors showing a slight net inflow [3]

12月10日，大消费板块企稳上扬，免税、航司涨幅居前，食品饮料ETF（515170.SH）、旅游ETF（562510.SH）二 级市场价格也上扬。11月下旬以来，食品饮料ETF（515170.SH）呈现破位下跌，但资金逢低买入，连续5日出现净申 购，累计超1.7亿元。 此外，11月服务价格季节性下降影响。服务价格下降0.4%，影响CPI环比下降约0.16个百分点。其中，节后出行需 求季节性回落，宾馆住宿、飞机票、旅行社收费和交通工具租赁费价格分别下降10.4%、10.2%、6.2%和3.6%，合计影 响CPI环比下降约0.13个百分点；房屋租赁进入淡季，房租价格下降0.2%。 但同比来看，11月服务和扣除能源的工业消费品价格分别上涨0.7%和2.1%，分别影响CPI同比上涨约0.29个百分点 和0.53个百分点。其中扩内需政策措施继续显效，家用器具和服装价格分别上涨4.9%和2.0%，飞机票、家政服务和在外 餐饮价格分别上涨7.0%、2.4%和1.2%。金饰品价格涨幅扩大至58.4%。另外，燃油小汽车和新能源小汽车价格分别下降 2.5%和2.4%。 每日经济新闻 权重股方面，旅游ETF（562510.SH）持 ...

Core Viewpoint - The aviation industry is expected to experience a significant supply-demand reversal in 2026, transitioning into a state of supply shortage, with an anticipated passenger load factor reaching 87% [2][40][44] Supply - The effective supply will remain tight in 2026, with an expected ASK growth rate of 2.7%. Boeing and Airbus are recovering production capacity slowly, currently at about 70% of pre-pandemic levels, and global supply chain issues, particularly with engine quality, persist [4][18] - The delivery volume from COMAC is expected to decline significantly in 2025 due to global supply chain disruptions and geopolitical tensions, limiting the short-term impact of domestic aircraft on industry capacity [7][20] - Engine issues are affecting the availability of aircraft, with an increase in grounded planes expected in 2026 due to technical and quality problems with mainstream engines [9][11] Demand - Demand remains resilient, with an expected growth rate of about 5% in 2026, constrained by supply limitations. The return of business travelers is expected to support this growth [22][36] - The domestic aviation demand growth rate is still higher than that of rail, indicating strong resilience and some irreplaceable demand for air travel [25][30] Ticket Prices - Ticket prices are projected to increase moderately in 2026, approaching 2019 levels, with seasonal fluctuations expected. The price increase in the off-peak season may exceed that of the peak season due to tighter supply [45][48]

手机号 15769519125 2025 年 中国航空货运行业市 场研究报告 主编：雷静兰 编辑：郭宇昂 商业合作： collaboration@shuoyuanconsulting.com 1 / 25 1 行业概述 1.1 行业定义与范围 1.1.1 航空货运的定义 航空货运是指利用各类航空运输工具，如货运飞机、客机腹舱等，将货物从一 个地点安全、迅速地运送到另一个地点的专业物流活动。相比传统的陆运和海 运，航空货运以其运输速度快、服务高效、覆盖范围广泛等显著优势，成为满 足现代社会对时效性和安全性要求的重要物流方式。航空货运主要承担高价值 商品、紧急物资、易腐易损品以及体积较小但重量较轻的货物运输任务，例如 电子产品、医药制品、生鲜食品、贵重金属及重要文件等。航空货运不仅仅局 限于货物的空中运输，还包括货物的全流程管理和配套服务。这些服务涵盖货 物的装卸操作、仓储管理、分拣分配、包装加固、报关报检、运输保险及最后 一公里配送等环节，确保货物在运输过程中的安全性和完整性。同时，现代航 空货运广泛应用信息化管理系统，如货物跟踪追踪、电子单证、智能仓储和大 数据分析，以提升运营效率和客户体验。作为现代物流体系 ...

《中国民航报》、中国民航网 记者郭瑛 报道：12月8日，中国南方航空（以下简称"南航"）与维珍澳大 利亚航空（以下简称"维珍澳航"）在澳大利亚布里斯班正式签署代码共享合作协议。此次合作将有力拓 展南航在大洋洲的航线网络覆盖能力，为中澳两国旅客带来更丰富、便捷与高效的出行体验。 双方代码共享合作计划于2026年初正式上线。届时，旅客搭乘南航航班前往悉尼、墨尔本、布里斯班、 达尔文等枢纽城市后，可高效衔接维珍澳航航线网络，便捷前往澳大利亚、新西兰及瓦努阿图的17个热 门目的地。航线覆盖范围不仅包括麦卡斯尔、汤斯维尔和麦凯等工商业发达的城市，也涵盖黄金海岸、 阳光海岸、凯恩斯和皇后镇等知名度假胜地，同时还包括瓦努阿图的维拉港，可有效满足不同类型旅客 的出行选择。 南航营销管理委员会副主任张东升先生表示："我们很高兴与维珍澳航携手，以高效的方式将南航的网 络辐射至更多的大洋洲通航点。未来，南航与维珍澳航将不断探索国际合作新机遇，为我们的旅客解锁 更多令人向往的目的地。" 维珍澳航首席战略与转型官阿利斯泰尔·哈特利先生表示："我们欣然宣布与南航正式建立合作伙伴关 系，致力为中国旅客打造更为顺畅的澳大利亚臻享之旅。中国作 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights a collective decline in airline stocks, with Eastern Airlines down 3.32%, Southern Airlines down 2.6%, and Air China down 1.25% as of the report date [1] - According to the latest monitoring data from Flight Butler DAST, the number of flights from mainland China to Japan reached a new low of 1,006 flights during the 49th week (December 1 to December 7) [1] - The cancellation rate for flights on the China-Japan route is expected to reach 30.4% in mid-December, an increase of 3.6 percentage points compared to the previous reporting period [1] Group 2 - Zhongtai Securities believes that the extension of the free refund and change policy for Japan routes will cause short-term disruptions but will not alter the long-term investment value of the airline industry [1] - Guotai Junan Securities points out that the recent reduction in passenger flow on Japan routes may lead airlines to shift focus to Southeast Asia and domestic markets [1] - The firm anticipates that the airline industry will continue to significantly reduce losses by Q4 2025 and expects a turnaround for the entire year of 2025 [1] Group 3 - The article mentions that the Chinese aviation sector is expected to enter a "super cycle," driven by market-driven ticket pricing, steady demand growth, and an optimized customer base, which will elevate and sustain airline profitability [1]

消息面上，12月8日，根据航班管家DAST最新监测数据，第49周（12月1日至12月7日）中国大陆赴日 航班量1006班次，再创新低。预计12月中日航线航班取消率达30.4%，较上个统计周期（12月1日）增 加3.6个百分点。此前12月5日，以国有"三大航"为代表的多家中国航司公告，将日本航线相关机票的免 费退改政策延长至2026年3月底。 中泰证券（600918）认为，中日航线免费退改政策延长，短期扰动不改航空长期投资价值。国泰海通证 券指出，近期日线客流缩减航司减班，或将转投东南亚与国内等市场。考虑2025年日线表现平淡，预计 对行业整体影响或较为有限，且不改长逻辑。该行预计2025Q4行业将继续大幅减亏，2025年将实现全 年扭亏。中国航空将开启"超级周期"，考虑票价市场化，需求稳健增长与客源结构优化将驱动航司盈利 中枢上升且可持续。 航空股集体走低，截至发稿，东方航空(00670)跌3.32%，报4.66港元；南方航空（600029）(01055)跌 2.6%，报5.24港元；中国国航（601111）(00753)跌1.25%，报6.32港元。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The expansion and upgrade of the three major international aviation hubs in the Greater Bay Area (GBA) - Guangzhou, Shenzhen, and Hong Kong - signify a shift towards a collaborative network that enhances the overall regional aviation capacity and efficiency, moving into a "3.0 era" characterized by high quality, high efficiency, and high collaboration [1][2][3]. Group 1: Infrastructure Expansion - The three major hubs have completed their runway expansions, with Shenzhen Airport's third runway operational since December 6, 2023, handling over 200 flights in its first week [1][3]. - Guangzhou Baiyun Airport has become the first in China to operate five commercial runways, with its new T3 terminal capable of accommodating an annual passenger throughput of 120 million, and a terminal capacity of 140 million [2][3]. - Hong Kong Airport's three-runway system, fully operational by 2024, is expected to handle 120 million passengers and 10 million tons of cargo annually [3]. Group 2: New Routes and Connectivity - Guangzhou Baiyun Airport has launched new intercontinental routes to Madrid and Darwin, enhancing its position as a key aviation hub connecting China to Europe and Oceania [2][3]. - The "seamless transfer" service between Shenzhen and Hong Kong airports allows passengers to transit without re-entering immigration, significantly improving travel efficiency [5][6]. Group 3: Economic Drivers - The upgrades in the GBA airports are driven by the region's vibrant economy and the specific demands of high-value industries such as electronics, biomedicine, and cross-border e-commerce [7][8]. - The total air cargo volume of the three major airports reached 9.2 million tons in 2024, accounting for 7.2% of the global total, positioning them among the top 20 global cargo airports [7][8]. Group 4: Emerging Economic Zones - The GBA is developing multiple high-end industrial clusters around its airports, including logistics, aircraft maintenance, and high-end manufacturing [8][9]. - The focus on enhancing airport functionalities aims to attract more high-value industries and services, contributing to regional economic growth [9]. Group 5: Competitive Dynamics - The GBA airports face challenges in collaborative development due to overlapping service areas and competition for international routes and cargo resources [10]. - Differentiated positioning is essential, with Guangzhou focusing on Southeast Asia and Oceania, Shenzhen on technology and high-end manufacturing, and Hong Kong on maintaining its global network advantage [10]. Group 6: Future Outlook - By 2035, the GBA is projected to meet an aviation passenger demand of 420 million, necessitating the current infrastructure developments to support global connectivity [11]. - The enhanced airport network is expected to attract multinational companies and elevate the GBA's status in the global economic landscape [11].