2025 年 07 月 12 日 行业研究 评级：推荐(维持) 《电力设备行业周报：工信部召开光伏企业座谈 会，海风政策催化不断落地（推荐）*电力设备*李 航，邱迪，王刚，严语韬，李昂》——2025-07-06 《人形机器人行业周报：湖北省人形机器人产业投 资母基金设立，步科发布第四代无框力矩电机及中 空驱动器（推荐）*电力设备*李航，邱迪，李昂， 李铭全》——2025-07-05 《电力设备行业周报：抢装支撑风电 Q2 业绩，锂 电产业链持续推进固态电池布局（推荐）*电力设 备*李航，邱迪，王刚，李铭全，严语韬，李昂》 ——2025-06-28 《人形机器人行业周报：浙江荣泰拟参股金力传 动，银河通用完成 11 亿元融资（推荐）*电力设备 *李航，邱迪，李铭全，李昂》——2025-06-28 | 研究所： | | | --- | --- | | 证券分析师： | 李航 S0350521120006 | | | lih11@ghzq.com.cn | | 证券分析师： | 邱迪 S0350522010002 | | | qiud@ghzq.com.cn | | 证券分析师： | 王刚 S03505240200 ...

Group 1: Photovoltaic Silicon Material Industry - The photovoltaic silicon material industry is expected to accelerate capacity consolidation, with the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology emphasizing the need for high-quality development in the solar industry [1] - By 2027, the industry is projected to enter a stable development phase, with significant advantages in the silicon material segment due to differences in capacity costs and financial strength among companies [1] - Key companies to watch include GCL-Poly Energy, Xinte Energy, Tongwei Co., and TBEA [1] Group 2: Solid-State Battery Industry - The solid-state battery industry is witnessing continuous advancements, with equipment from Winbond Technology successfully delivered to major domestic clients [2] - Material production is ramping up, with significant capacity in oxide electrolytes and expectations for sulfide electrolytes to achieve ton-level shipments by 2025 [2] - Companies of interest in this sector include Xiamen Tungsten, Tianqi Lithium, and others involved in the solid-state battery supply chain [2] Group 3: Offshore Wind Power Development - The central government is promoting the orderly development of offshore wind power, with a focus on enhancing the marine economy and encouraging private investment [3] - Goldwind Technology has secured over 7.7GW of international orders for 2024, with significant revenue growth reported for its international subsidiary [3] - Key players in the wind power sector include Goldwind Technology, Oriental Cable, and Dajin Heavy Industry [3] Group 4: Data Center Investment - Global data center investments are accelerating, with Amazon planning to invest AUD 20 billion (approximately USD 13.1 billion) in Australia and SK Telecom collaborating with Amazon Web Services for a significant data center project in South Korea [4] - The deployment of NVIDIA's GB300 AI systems is underway, indicating a growing demand for AI computing resources [4] - Companies to monitor in the AIDC power equipment sector include Jinpan Technology, Xinte Electric, and others [4] Group 5: Key Company Earnings Forecasts - The report provides earnings forecasts and investment ratings for several companies, with Goldwind Technology rated "Outperform" and projected to have an EPS of 1.28 in 2025 [5] - Jinpan Technology and other companies also received "Outperform" ratings, indicating positive market sentiment [5] Group 6: Industry Performance Overview - The electric power equipment sector outperformed the market in June, with a 6.68% increase compared to a 2.5% rise in the CSI 300 index [13] - The sector's PE ratio at the end of June was 30.3, reflecting a slight recovery in valuations [13] - The report highlights that the electric power equipment industry has shown strong performance across various sub-sectors, including lithium battery materials and wind power [23]

Group 1: Public Utilities and Environmental Protection - The report emphasizes the dual trends of high cleanliness on the generation side and high electrification on the consumption side as key developments in the power system, with the grid serving as a crucial bridge between the two [5][6] - The review of the ultra-high voltage (UHV) construction during the 14th Five-Year Plan indicates that progress has been below expectations, highlighting the need to address terminal demand to achieve goals [6][7] - The outlook for the distribution network by 2030 suggests that recent policy reforms will lead to more diverse distribution network forms, enhancing renewable energy consumption and advancing distribution network development [8][9] Group 2: Metal New Materials - Antai Technology - Antai Technology's business structure is based on a "2+3+4" system, focusing on core industries and emerging sectors, with steady growth in traditional business and significant potential in new areas like special powders and nuclear fusion [10][11] - The company reported a revenue of 7.573 billion yuan in 2024, a decrease of 7.50% year-on-year, but a net profit increase of 49.26% to 372 million yuan, indicating a positive trend in operational efficiency [11][12] - The emerging business sectors are expected to see rapid growth, particularly in special powders, amorphous materials, and controllable nuclear fusion, driven by high industry demand [12][14]

Macro Strategy - The report indicates that the US non-farm payrolls for June exceeded expectations, leading to a delay in interest rate cut expectations to September. The 10-year US Treasury yield rose by 6.89 basis points to 4.346% during the week [1][15][17] - The ISM services PMI returned above the expansion line, reflecting strong economic data, while the unemployment rate decreased, contributing to a positive market sentiment [1][15][17] - The signing of Trump's "One Big Beautiful Bill" (OBBB) increased the debt ceiling by $5 trillion to $41 trillion, which may lead to a "buy the rumor, sell the news" trading pattern [1][15][17] Fixed Income - In the week of June 30 to July 4, 12 green bonds were issued in the interbank and exchange markets, totaling approximately 34.961 billion yuan, an increase of 3.531 billion yuan from the previous week [4] - The secondary market saw a total trading volume of green bonds amounting to 56.2 billion yuan, a decrease of 17.3 billion yuan from the previous week [4] Industry Analysis Robotics and Automation - The report highlights that the human-like robot sector is entering a year of mass production, with supply chain adjustments and component innovations being crucial. Tesla's Musk has set a production target of 5,000 to 10,000 units for the year [7][8] - The report emphasizes the importance of component innovations such as dexterous hands and lightweight materials in enhancing robot capabilities [7][8] Insurance Industry - The insurance sector is expected to see improvements on both the liability and asset sides, with low valuations and low holdings providing a balanced risk-reward profile. The estimated valuation for the insurance sector is between 0.61-0.96 times PEV and 0.98-2.21 times PB, indicating historical lows [9] REITs - The report discusses the potential of REITs in a low-interest-rate environment, highlighting the importance of policy support and structural optimization to enhance investment value. The diversification of asset types is expected to accelerate, with new assets like data centers and wind power emerging [10] Engineering Machinery - The domestic engineering machinery market is at the beginning of an upward cycle, with a projected demand growth of 0-3% for the year. The report notes that the export market remains strong, contributing to high industry sentiment [11] Unmanned Forklift Industry - The report suggests that the unmanned forklift sector is poised for rapid growth driven by AI technology and smart logistics. It recommends investing in leading companies in the smart forklift space [12] Consumer Services - The analysis of consumer spending in China indicates that the overall consumption rate is low, with both service and goods consumption needing improvement. The service consumption rate in China was 21.1% in 2019, compared to an average of 28.4% across 43 countries [20][21]

Core Insights - The report highlights a significant increase in domestic excavator sales, with a year-on-year growth exceeding 20% in the first half of the year, indicating a recovery in the construction machinery sector [5] - The investment in ultra-high voltage projects is accelerating, with expected investments surpassing 650 billion yuan in 2025, suggesting strong growth potential in the energy sector [5] - Global semiconductor sales reached 59 billion USD in May, marking a year-on-year increase of 19.8%, reflecting robust demand in the technology sector [5] Industry Updates - The National Development and Reform Commission has allocated an additional 10 billion yuan for central budget investments to support employment initiatives, which is expected to create jobs for 310,000 key groups [4] - Seven departments have issued a document to expedite the development of a universal childcare service system, indicating a focus on social infrastructure [4] - The Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission is expanding the range of institutions participating in the southbound trading scheme, which may enhance market liquidity [4] Company Focus - Wanma Co., Ltd. (002276) is set to increase its annual production capacity to 60,000 tons after the completion of its high-performance polymer insulation project, raising its market share from 15% to approximately 20% [6] - United Chemical (301209) plans to invest 120 million yuan in Zhuoguangrui Technology, acquiring a 19.35% stake post-investment [6] - Jinling Mining (000655) anticipates a net profit growth of 66.48% to 111.54% year-on-year for the first half of the year, driven by increased sales of its main product, iron concentrate [6] - Keda Intelligent (300222) has a subsidiary that holds an 18% stake in a company supplying charging piles for Xiaomi's electric vehicles, indicating strategic partnerships in the EV sector [6] Market Review and Outlook - On July 8, the market opened slightly higher and experienced a steady upward trend, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing up 0.7% at 3,497 points, reaching a new high for the period [7] - The trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets increased to 1.4 trillion yuan, up 240 billion yuan from the previous trading day, indicating heightened market activity [7] - The report notes a rotation in market sentiment, with funds shifting from defensive dividend sectors to undervalued growth sectors, particularly in the ChiNext index, which shows greater elasticity [8] - The recent emphasis on anti-involution policies and supply-side reforms suggests potential investment opportunities in sectors aligned with these themes [8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the power equipment industry [4] Core Insights - The dual carbon strategy emphasizes the coexistence of highly clean power generation and highly electrified power consumption, with the grid serving as a crucial link between the two [4][7] - The development of ultra-high voltage (UHV) technology is essential for achieving carbon neutrality, but progress has been slower than expected [4][8] - The distribution network is critical for renewable energy consumption, yet investment during the 14th Five-Year Plan period has fallen short of expectations [4][39] Summary by Sections Ultra-High Voltage (UHV) - UHV is a key component of the dual carbon strategy, with a planned investment of 380 billion yuan for over 30,000 kilometers of lines and a capacity of 340 million kilovolt-amperes [8] - The actual progress of UHV projects has been below expectations, with only eight projects likely to be completed by 2025 [16][18] - The shift towards flexible direct current technology is noted, as it allows for higher proportions of renewable energy to be transmitted [22][24] Distribution Network - The distribution network's role has evolved significantly post-dual carbon strategy, requiring upgrades to accommodate distributed energy resources [39][40] - Despite a consensus on the need for increased investment in the distribution network, actual investment levels have been lower than anticipated during the 14th Five-Year Plan [47] - The rapid growth of distributed solar power has led to challenges in the capacity of the distribution network, necessitating further enhancements [50]

Group 1 - The approval of the two ultra-high voltage (UHV) projects, namely the ±800 kV UHV DC transmission project from Southeast Tibet to the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area and the ±800 kV UHV DC transmission project from Inner Mongolia to Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei, signifies a strong momentum for the continuous advancement of UHV construction in China [1][2][3] - The Southeast Tibet to Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao project has a rated transmission capacity of 10 million kW and a dynamic investment of 53.168 billion yuan, highlighting its significant role in China's energy strategy [1] - The Inner Mongolia to Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei project has a rated transmission capacity of 8 million kW and a dynamic investment of 17.178 billion yuan, which will enhance power supply security in Hebei province and support the clean energy consumption increase [2] Group 2 - The continuous advancement of UHV construction is crucial for addressing the imbalance between energy resource distribution in western regions and power demand in eastern coastal areas, with UHV technology being a core solution for the "West-to-East Power Transmission" initiative [3] - The State Grid Corporation of China plans to invest over 650 billion yuan in 2025, while the Southern Power Grid will invest 175 billion yuan, indicating a significant focus on UHV projects [3] - The demand for key equipment such as transformers, switches, and cables is expected to surge, leading to rapid development in the upstream and downstream sectors of the industry [3][4] Group 3 - Companies like T时代电气 and 中国西电 are positioned to benefit from the growing demand for power semiconductor devices and have secured significant contracts for UHV projects, with total winning bids amounting to 1.443 billion yuan [4] - 平高电气 has maintained a leading market share in UHV projects and reported record-high single-bid amounts, indicating strong order backlogs [4] - Analysts believe that UHV equipment manufacturers with stable or increasing bidding shares will see significant performance support as a result of the ongoing UHV project launches and tenders [4]

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview: UHV (Ultra High Voltage) Sector Key Points - The UHV sector has experienced a valuation drop to approximately 14-15 times, down from a peak of 30 times, significantly enhancing investment attractiveness [1][3][9] - Two major DC lines have been approved in 2025, with expectations for more approvals, including five DC lines, three AC lines, and several expansion and back-to-back projects, indicating a recovery in the industry [1][5] - The investment demand for UHV-related core equipment is projected to exceed 50 billion yuan in 2025, a notable increase from 30-40 billion yuan in the previous year, driven by the State Grid's planning during the 14th Five-Year Plan [1][6] Company Performance and Market Dynamics - Key companies such as XJ Electric, China XD Electric, and State Grid NARI have shown strong performance in the UHV sector, with XJ Electric benefiting significantly from its share in the investment of UHV lines [1][9][12] - China XD Electric has maintained a leading market share in the UHV equipment sector, with continuous improvement in profitability and successful breakthroughs in industrial clients [12][14] - NARI has excelled in UHV converter valves and related products, with a notable increase in market share and a stable growth rate in automation and industrial control sectors [15][16] Future Expectations - The UHV construction intensity is expected to maintain strong growth, with an anticipated addition of 4-5 DC lines and 2-3 AC lines annually during the 15th Five-Year Plan [8][17] - The current valuation of core companies in the UHV sector has decreased to around 15 times, making it an attractive investment opportunity compared to the previous year's high of 30 times [9][17] Investment Recommendations - Recommended companies for investment focus include: - **XJ Electric**: Significant earnings elasticity in UHV construction, with a market share of 20-30% in valve and control protection equipment [9][13] - **Pinggao Group**: Strong performance in AC UHV products and reduced international business drag [11][13] - **China XD Electric**: Benefiting from domestic market demand and improved profitability [12][13] Additional Insights - The UHV sector is entering a period of intensive approvals for new lines, which is expected to enhance the performance of related companies [5][4] - The overall market structure remains stable, with leading companies like NARI, XJ Electric, and China XD Electric dominating the converter valve market [6][7]

Group 1 - The ultra-high voltage (UHV) concept sector increased by 1.98%, ranking 10th among concept sectors, with 95 stocks rising, including Aote Xun hitting the daily limit [1] - Leading stocks in the UHV sector included Jinlihua Electric, Tongguang Cable, and Caneng Electric Power, which rose by 11.29%, 9.90%, and 8.70% respectively [1] - The sector saw a net inflow of 450 million yuan from main funds, with 55 stocks receiving net inflows, and 7 stocks exceeding 30 million yuan in net inflow [2] Group 2 - The top net inflow stock was Baobian Electric, with a net inflow of 127 million yuan, followed by Aote Xun, China West Electric, and Pinggao Electric with net inflows of 97.09 million yuan, 62.47 million yuan, and 57.06 million yuan respectively [2][3] - Aote Xun, Jinbei Electric, and China West Electric had the highest net inflow ratios at 29.79%, 13.02%, and 12.95% respectively [3] - The UHV concept sector's performance was supported by significant capital inflows, indicating strong investor interest [2][3]

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The power equipment industry is underperforming due to multiple factors including delays in UHV projects, risks associated with new energy installations, price reductions in grid procurement, and weak industrial investment [1][3] - The anticipated approval for UHV DC lines in early 2025 is five lines, with two to four AC lines expected. However, only one AC line has been approved in the first half of the year, which is below expectations [1][4] Key Insights and Arguments - UHV construction aims to address the insufficient transmission channels caused by the rapid expansion of new energy sources, indicating a demand for advanced construction. However, the expectation of 5 to 6 DC lines annually during the 14th Five-Year Plan may be difficult to sustain [1][5] - The development of nuclear power significantly boosts the demand for grid equipment and transmission channel construction. Since 2022, over 10 nuclear power units have been approved annually, enhancing the value and profitability of transmission and transformation equipment [1][6] - New nuclear projects in inland areas will further promote the demand for supporting transmission and AC ring networks, presenting growth opportunities for related companies [1][6] Company-Specific Insights - Companies like XJ Electric and Xi'an Xikai are expected to benefit directly from UHV DC construction due to their involvement with DC converter valve-related businesses, making them more resilient in the short term [1][7] - For a more stable investment approach, companies such as Pinggao and NARI are recommended as they are less affected by negative industry impacts. Pinggao currently holds 16 interval orders, with 14 being competitive nuclear projects, and maintains a steady delivery rhythm for 750 kV [2][7] - Domestic solar energy companies are also showing slightly better performance due to mandatory installation power forecasts, suggesting potential investment opportunities [2][8] Additional Important Points - The overall market sentiment for the UHV sector has been negative since October 2024, with companies like XJ Electric and Pinggao experiencing nearly a 20% decline in 2025. This downturn is attributed to underwhelming performance expectations and various adverse factors affecting the power equipment industry [3][4] - The synchronization between UHV construction and new energy development is not complete, as UHV projects are required to catch up with the previous pace of new energy expansion [5][6]